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Gold Bears Eye 3,983: Sell the 4,030 Pullback, Not the BottomHonestly, gold hasn't given bulls a single reason to smile on the H1 all week. Every push higher gets sold into, and the ChoCH at 4,060 was just the latest rally to die on arrival.
Here's how I'm reading it. Price has been stair-stepping lower ever since the descending channel broke earlier this month. First the ChoCH at 4,085, then another at 4,060, and each bounce came in weaker than the one before it. That's not accumulation, that's distribution. Sellers are in full control and they're not hiding it.
Now look at what's sitting below us. The FVG at 4,000 to 4,010 never got fully mitigated, and right under the July 12 to 14 lows at 3,983 there's a pool of sell-side liquidity just waiting to be taken. The market rarely leaves that kind of fuel on the table. In my experience, when structure is this clean to the downside and liquidity is stacked below, price finds its way there sooner rather than later.
My plan is simple. I want a pullback into 4,030 to 4,045, the retest of that broken ChoCH area, and that's where I'm hunting shorts. If price stretches deeper toward 4,060, even better entry, but that level is also my line in the sand. An H1 close above 4,060 kills the short-term bearish structure completely, and I'll step aside without hesitation. No ego, no averaging down.
Main target sits at 3,983.5, right on that liquidity shelf. If we sweep those lows and a bullish ChoCH prints on the lower timeframes, that's the only spot where I'd consider flipping long from 3,983 to 3,990. Not a second before confirmation shows up.
Until then, rallies are for selling. Patience pays more than prediction here.
Are you selling this pullback or waiting for the sweep first? 👇 Short 
Gold After CPI & PPI: Is the Next Move Below $4,000?After yesterday's CPI release, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) initially moved higher. However, as it approached a resistance zone($4,138-$4,091) and resistance lines—where multiple technical resistance factors converged—it faced strong selling pressure and started to decline again.
Today, following the release of the PPI data, Gold once again attempted to move higher. However, its bullish reaction was much weaker than after the CPI report, which was largely expected since a significant portion of the market had already priced in the inflation data after yesterday's CPI release.
I expect Gold to resume its decline and fall at least toward the $4,026 level. If bearish momentum accelerates, we could even see Gold break below $4,026.
First Target: $4,026
Second Target: $3,997
Stop Loss(SL): $4,103(Worst)
What do you think? Could Gold drop below $4,000 again, or will buyers step in and defend this level?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. Short 
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Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 11 — Core IndicatorsLesson 11 - Core Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands)
Difficulty: Intermediate
The indicators on your chart are built from the same price data you already see. The four covered here are among the most widely followed in technical analysis — knowing how to read them can add useful context to your setups.
🔵 WHAT INDICATORS ACTUALLY DO
An indicator does not see the future — it reorganizes past price (and sometimes volume) into a different visual form. That can make certain conditions easier to spot: fading momentum, stretched moves, or quiet periods before expansion.
Two useful categories to keep in mind:
- Oscillators (RSI, Stochastic) — move between fixed bounds; often more useful in ranging markets
- Trend/momentum tools (MACD, Bollinger Bands) — follow price openly; often more useful for reading trend strength and volatility
No indicator needs to be traded on its own. Most experienced traders use them as context on top of the structure you learned in earlier lessons.
🔵 RSI — RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
RSI measures the speed of recent price changes on a 0–100 scale.
- Above 70 → often described as overbought (momentum stretched to the upside)
- Below 30 → often described as oversold (momentum stretched to the downside)
Important nuance: in a strong trend, RSI can stay overbought or oversold for a long time. A high reading alone is not a sell signal.
One of the more widely watched RSI signals is divergence — price makes a new high while RSI makes a lower high (or the reverse at lows). This can suggest momentum is fading, especially when confirmed by a reversal pattern from Lesson 7.
🔵 MACD — MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE
MACD builds directly on the moving averages from Lesson 10. It shows the relationship between a faster and a slower average of price, plus a signal line and a histogram.
Common ways traders read it:
- MACD line crossing the signal line — can indicate a shift in short-term momentum
- Histogram shrinking — the current push may be losing strength
- MACD crossing the zero line — often read as a broader momentum shift
Because MACD is built from moving averages, it lags by design. It tends to work better for confirming momentum than for picking exact tops and bottoms.
🔵 STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR
The Stochastic compares the latest close to the recent high–low range: readings near 100 mean price is closing near the top of its recent range, near 0 means the bottom.
- Above 80 / below 20 → commonly used overbought/oversold zones
- %K crossing %D inside those zones → a frequently watched trigger
Stochastic tends to shine in sideways markets, where price rotates between support and resistance (Lesson 3). In strong trends it can stay pinned at extremes, so many traders only take its signals in the direction of the larger trend.
🔵 BOLLINGER BANDS
Bollinger Bands wrap a moving average with an upper and lower band that expand and contract with volatility.
- Wide bands → volatile conditions
- Narrow bands (the "squeeze") → quiet conditions that often precede expansion — direction unknown until price shows its hand
- Band walk → in strong trends, price can ride along one band for extended periods; touching a band is not by itself a reversal signal
A squeeze followed by a decisive close outside the bands, supported by volume (Lesson 9), is one of the more commonly watched volatility setups.
In the chart above: notice how the bands tightened in late December while price moved sideways — quiet conditions. The expansion arrived in late January with a strong break to the downside. The squeeze suggested a bigger move may be building, but the direction only became clear once the break happened.
🔵 COMBINING THEM WITHOUT CLUTTER
More indicators does not mean more clarity. A practical approach:
- Pick at most one oscillator and one trend/volatility tool
- Let structure lead: levels, trend, and volume first — indicators as confirmation
- Avoid stacking indicators that measure the same thing (RSI + Stochastic together mostly repeat each other)
🔵 COMMON MISTAKES
- Selling just because RSI is above 70 in a strong uptrend
- Taking every MACD crossover in a ranging market, where whipsaws are frequent
- Treating a Bollinger Band touch as an automatic reversal signal
- Loading five indicators and losing sight of price itself
🐳 PRO TIPS
- Divergence signals often carry more weight on higher timeframes — a 4H or daily divergence tends to matter more than a 5-minute one.
- When an oscillator signal appears at a level you already marked (Lesson 3) inside a clear trend (Lesson 2), the context is doing most of the work — the indicator is just the trigger.
- Try removing all indicators for a week and trading structure only, then add one back. Many traders find this reveals which tool actually helps them.
- Default settings (RSI 14, MACD 12/26/9, Stochastic 14/3/3, BB 20/2) are a starting point — consistency matters more than optimization.
If this lesson helped you, drop a comment with the indicator you rely on most — and let us know which topic you want covered next. 🐳
Full Trading Roadmap | Classical TA Course
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 01 — Mastering the Chart
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 02 — Mastering Trends
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 03 — Support & Resistance
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 04 — Price Channels
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 05 — Single Candle Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 06 — Multi-Candle Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 07 — Reversal Chart Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 08 — Continuation Chart Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 09 — Volume Analysis
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 10 — Moving Averages
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 Long 
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USDJPY Eyes Triangle BreakoutFrom an FX perspective, USD/JPY remains one of the most interesting charts. The pair is trading near levels last seen in the 1980s and could be at risk of another steep bullish breakout toward 170 should the US Dollar Index (DXY) confirm its own breakout above 102.
The latest swings on the USD/JPY chart are coiling within a triangle pattern, pointing to growing breakout risks as the range narrows down. A sustained break above the 162.40–162.80 resistance—and above 163.50—would strengthen the case for an extension toward 165, 168, and eventually 170.
These upside targets align with the 61.8%, 100%, and 127.2% Fibonacci extension levels of the May–June 2026 advance, while also converging with the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since April 2025.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 161.10 and 160.80 would expose the lower boundary of the channel near 158. From there, prices could either stage another rebound to preserve the year-long bullish trend since April 2025, or extend losses toward 155 and 152, near the yearly lows. This bearish scenario would likely coincide with a DXY breakdown below the 100.30–99.30 support zone
- Razan Hilal
