While the retail crowd thinks Solana's recent 2% recovery is the start of a massive breakout, the 4-hour chart is setting up a textbook short retest of its selling order block with an asymmetric 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio. 🚨
Current Structure:
Price: $97.87
Reaction: Rebounded a minor +2.14% from its local low ($95.82) after a -10.75% dump from its local peak ($107.36).
Pattern: Corrective Relief Rally inside a descending channel.
Bias: Bearish below the $101.44 resistance zone.
"The Level That Decides Everything":
The $101.52 - $102.86 Selling Order Block. Bids are queued at the $101.44 entry price. If this supply zone rejects the relief rally, it clears the way for a deeper correction to take out local swing support. A daily close above $104.94 invalidates the setup.
Targets: Target One at $94.69, Target Two at $83.93.
The Move So Far:
Dumped -10.75% from its $107.36 local high to its $95.82 low. On the macro scale,
SOL is down 66.75% from its $294.33 All-Time High (Jan 2025) and up a massive +19,442.73% from its $0.5008 All-Time Low (May 2020).
Fundraising Breakdown:
Total Raised: $359.7 Million across 7 funding rounds.
Key Rounds: Private seed sale raised $3.17 Million (price $0.04), Series A raised $20 Million, and the private sale in June 2021 raised $314.15 Million led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
ICO/IEO Entry Prices:
Public ICO on Coinlist (March 2020) raised $1.76 Million at an entry price of $0.22. Early ICO participants are currently sitting on a massive ~445x return on investment.
Unlock Pressure Ahead:
Locked Supply: 0% locked. Solana is fully unlocked, meaning all legacy team, founder, and seed rounds are completely circulating.
Supply Mechanics: Programmatic inflation is the sole driver of new supply. On August 28, 2026, the SGP-0002 "Double Disinflation" vote passed (67.001% approval), doubling annual disinflation from 15% to 30%, which massively accelerates its path to a 1.5% terminal floor.
Key Levels:
Resistance 1 / Resistance 2: $101.52 / $102.86
Entry: $101.44 (SHORT setup)
Support (range): $94.69 - $83.93
Invalidation / Stop Loss: $104.94
Closing Thesis:
Solana’s tokenomics are now fully unburdened by legacy VC unlock cliffs, and the network’s successful "Double Disinflation" vote significantly reduces future dilution. However, technicals rule the short-term. The 4-hour relief rally is running straight into an aggressive overhead selling block. Rejection at $101.44 sets up a perfect 1:5.00 short trade down to $83.93. Below it, the bearish thesis is locked in. 🎯
Bearish below $101.44. Above it, the story flips.
Not Financial Advice. ALWAYS DYOR.
Current Structure:
Price: $97.87
Reaction: Rebounded a minor +2.14% from its local low ($95.82) after a -10.75% dump from its local peak ($107.36).
Pattern: Corrective Relief Rally inside a descending channel.
Bias: Bearish below the $101.44 resistance zone.
"The Level That Decides Everything":
The $101.52 - $102.86 Selling Order Block. Bids are queued at the $101.44 entry price. If this supply zone rejects the relief rally, it clears the way for a deeper correction to take out local swing support. A daily close above $104.94 invalidates the setup.
Targets: Target One at $94.69, Target Two at $83.93.
The Move So Far:
Dumped -10.75% from its $107.36 local high to its $95.82 low. On the macro scale,
SOL is down 66.75% from its $294.33 All-Time High (Jan 2025) and up a massive +19,442.73% from its $0.5008 All-Time Low (May 2020).Fundraising Breakdown:
Total Raised: $359.7 Million across 7 funding rounds.
Key Rounds: Private seed sale raised $3.17 Million (price $0.04), Series A raised $20 Million, and the private sale in June 2021 raised $314.15 Million led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
ICO/IEO Entry Prices:
Public ICO on Coinlist (March 2020) raised $1.76 Million at an entry price of $0.22. Early ICO participants are currently sitting on a massive ~445x return on investment.
Unlock Pressure Ahead:
Locked Supply: 0% locked. Solana is fully unlocked, meaning all legacy team, founder, and seed rounds are completely circulating.
Supply Mechanics: Programmatic inflation is the sole driver of new supply. On August 28, 2026, the SGP-0002 "Double Disinflation" vote passed (67.001% approval), doubling annual disinflation from 15% to 30%, which massively accelerates its path to a 1.5% terminal floor.
Key Levels:
Resistance 1 / Resistance 2: $101.52 / $102.86
Entry: $101.44 (SHORT setup)
Support (range): $94.69 - $83.93
Invalidation / Stop Loss: $104.94
Closing Thesis:
Solana’s tokenomics are now fully unburdened by legacy VC unlock cliffs, and the network’s successful "Double Disinflation" vote significantly reduces future dilution. However, technicals rule the short-term. The 4-hour relief rally is running straight into an aggressive overhead selling block. Rejection at $101.44 sets up a perfect 1:5.00 short trade down to $83.93. Below it, the bearish thesis is locked in. 🎯
Bearish below $101.44. Above it, the story flips.
Not Financial Advice. ALWAYS DYOR.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🚨 GET FREE CRYPTO SIGNALS & LIVE UPDATES!
📲 Join our Telegram channel:
👉 t.me/coinpedia_markets
📈 Track Live Crypto Prices:
👉 markets.coinpedia.org/
⚡ Don’t miss the next market move — tap in now!
📲 Join our Telegram channel:
👉 t.me/coinpedia_markets
📈 Track Live Crypto Prices:
👉 markets.coinpedia.org/
⚡ Don’t miss the next market move — tap in now!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.