Current Price: ~$385.94 | Pre: $380.57 | Bias: Bullish
The Key Setup — AVWAP Rejection (Yellow Circle)
The purple rising line is an Anchored VWAP (anchored from what appears to be a significant low around August/September 2025). The yellow circle highlights precisely where price wicked down into the AVWAP (~$365–370) and rejected hard to the upside — a textbook bullish AVWAP bounce. This is meaningful because institutional players anchor VWAPs from key events, and a hold + rejection signals they're defending that level as support.
Structure Context:
Peak to downtrend: TSLA topped out near $495–500 in December 2025 and has been in a sustained correction
Institutional Volume Map (gold/olive band, ~$390–408): Previously support, now acting as overhead resistance — price is currently pinned just below this zone after the bounce
EPH dashed lines (~$385–390): Short-term equal highs that price is now pressing into after the AVWAP rejection
Red horizontal line (~$320): The macro floor — a break below AVWAP would likely target this
Bullish Thesis:
The AVWAP rejection combined with the bullish bias label suggests the read is: price found institutional support at the rising AVWAP, bounced, and is now pushing back into the volume zone overhead. A clean reclaim and hold of the $390–408 institutional band would be a meaningful structural shift back to the upside.
Risk: If the pre-market weakness ($380.57) follows through and price loses the AVWAP, that support thesis fails quickly.
The Key Setup — AVWAP Rejection (Yellow Circle)
The purple rising line is an Anchored VWAP (anchored from what appears to be a significant low around August/September 2025). The yellow circle highlights precisely where price wicked down into the AVWAP (~$365–370) and rejected hard to the upside — a textbook bullish AVWAP bounce. This is meaningful because institutional players anchor VWAPs from key events, and a hold + rejection signals they're defending that level as support.
Structure Context:
Peak to downtrend: TSLA topped out near $495–500 in December 2025 and has been in a sustained correction
Institutional Volume Map (gold/olive band, ~$390–408): Previously support, now acting as overhead resistance — price is currently pinned just below this zone after the bounce
EPH dashed lines (~$385–390): Short-term equal highs that price is now pressing into after the AVWAP rejection
Red horizontal line (~$320): The macro floor — a break below AVWAP would likely target this
Bullish Thesis:
The AVWAP rejection combined with the bullish bias label suggests the read is: price found institutional support at the rising AVWAP, bounced, and is now pushing back into the volume zone overhead. A clean reclaim and hold of the $390–408 institutional band would be a meaningful structural shift back to the upside.
Risk: If the pre-market weakness ($380.57) follows through and price loses the AVWAP, that support thesis fails quickly.
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Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily top picks analysis → free & paid tiers
Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.