407X ZONE - Will CPI trigger gold's next selling opportunity?Today's U.S. CPI release is expected to be the key macro catalyst for Gold this week. After yesterday's sharp decline, buyers have started to defend price around the lower boundary of the descending channel, producing a technical rebound. However, the recovery remains relatively weak, suggesting institutional flows are still waiting for inflation data before committing to a larger directional move.
If CPI comes in above expectations, markets could further reinforce the "higher-for-longer" Federal Reserve narrative, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while limiting Gold's upside. On the other hand, softer inflation could weaken the dollar and trigger a relief rally. Even so, one inflation report alone is unlikely to completely change the broader macro outlook, with PPI and Retail Sales still ahead later this week.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H4 timeframe. The recent bounce from the lower trendline has stabilized short-term selling pressure, but buyers have yet to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.382 area. The 4,070 region remains the key confluence of Demand, Descending Trendline, and Fibonacci 0.50–0.618, making it the primary institutional supply zone to monitor. Unless price confirms a Break of Structure (BOS) above this resistance cluster, the current recovery is likely to remain a corrective rally within the broader bearish trend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
A softer-than-expected CPI could lift Gold toward the 4,070 resistance cluster, where the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 confluence may attract renewed selling interest. As long as this area continues to cap price, the broader bearish structure remains valid, with the 3,970–3,980 support zone likely to be retested.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to secure a confirmed H4 close above 4,070 and break the descending trendline with a clear BOS, bearish momentum could fade, opening the door for a deeper recovery toward higher premium levels. Until then, any rally should be treated as a potential Sell the Rally opportunity rather than evidence of a confirmed trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading 
Short
Long
Bajaj FinanceSupport
₹1,013–1,010 (Immediate)
₹1,000–995 (Strong demand zone)
₹985–975 (Major swing support)
Resistance
₹1,023–1,025 (Immediate hurdle)
₹1,033–1,040 (Breakout zone)
₹1,080–1,100 (Major resistance / previous high area)
Trading View
Bullish Scenario
Sustaining above ₹1,023–1,025 with good volume can trigger a move towards ₹1,040, followed by ₹1,080–1,100.
Bearish Scenario
A break below ₹1,000 may lead to a decline towards ₹985, and if selling pressure continues, ₹975 becomes the next important support.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish
Momentum: Positive (RSI near 56–59)
Moving Averages: Strong Buy signal across most major averages
Bias: Buy on dips while above ₹1,000. InfosysCMP: ~₹1,100 (recent close around ₹1,101.90)
Immediate Support: ₹1,085–1,090
Strong Support: ₹1,050–1,060
Major Support: ₹1,000–1,020
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,120
Major Resistance: ₹1,150–1,170
Breakout Resistance: ₹1,220
Trading Plan
Bullish: Buy only on a sustained close above ₹1,120 with volume. Upside targets: ₹1,150 → ₹1,170 → ₹1,220.
Bearish: If the stock falls below ₹1,050, it could revisit the ₹1,020–1,000 zone.
Trend: Short-term recovery, but medium-term trend is still weak until Infosys reclaims its 100-DMA and 200-DMA.
Key Observation
RSI has recovered from oversold levels but remains below the strongest bullish zone.
IT stocks have seen renewed buying interest recently, which is supportive for Infosys in the near term. Larsen & ToubroCurrent Price: ~₹3,946
Pivot: ₹3,900
Support Levels:
S1: ₹3,853
S2: ₹3,821
S3: ₹3,774
Resistance Levels:
R1: ₹3,933 (already crossed)
R2: ₹3,980
R3: ₹4,012
Technical Analysis
The stock is trading above the pivot, which is a short-term positive sign.
It is approaching the ₹3,980–4,010 resistance zone. A sustained breakout above this range could lead to further upside.
Momentum indicators such as RSI are still relatively weak (around 35), suggesting the stock is recovering from a recent correction rather than being in a strong uptrend yet.
Trading View
Bullish above: ₹3,980–4,010 with strong volume.
Support to watch: ₹3,850. A fall below this could open the way toward ₹3,820–3,775.
Swing traders: Wait for a breakout above ₹4,010 or consider buying near strong support with a disciplined stop-loss.
Long-term investors: L&T continues to be supported by its diversified engineering, infrastructure, defense, and energy businesses, though short-term price action may remain volatile. Adani EnterprisesTechnical Levels
Immediate Support: ₹3,040–3,000
Major Support: ₹2,950–2,900
Strong Positional Support: ₹2,740
Immediate Resistance: ₹3,120
Major Resistance: ₹3,190–3,245
Breakout Zone: Above ₹3,245 on strong volume could open the way for a fresh uptrend.
Trading View
Bullish scenario
Hold above ₹3,040.
A sustained move above ₹3,245 with higher-than-average volume would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Bearish scenario
A close below ₹3,000 may lead to a decline toward ₹2,950 and potentially ₹2,900.
Strategy
Swing Traders: Consider fresh entries only after a confirmed breakout above ₹3,245 or on a pullback near strong support with confirmation.
Positional Investors: The long-term trend remains constructive while the stock stays above the ₹2,900–2,740 support zone. State Bank of IndiaTechnical Trend
Overall bias: Bullish / Strong Buy on many technical indicators.
RSI is around 55, indicating neutral momentum (neither overbought nor oversold).
Most moving averages remain in Buy mode, suggesting the medium-term trend is still positive.
Key Levels
Level Price (Approx.)
Immediate Support ₹1,034–1,036
Strong Support ₹1,029–1,031
Resistance 1 ₹1,039–1,040
Resistance 2 ₹1,042–1,045
Trading View
Above ₹1,040–1,045: Momentum could strengthen and buyers may attempt higher levels.
Below ₹1,030: Weakness may increase, with the next downside support lower.
Fundamental Outlook
Recent news has been supportive for SBI. The bank has strengthened its capital position through stake sales in SBI Funds Management and is expected to benefit from the additional capital for growth and provisioning.
If you're a:
Short-term trader: Watch ₹1,030 as support and ₹1,040–1,045 as the breakout zone.
Swing trader: Wait for either a confirmed breakout above resistance or a bounce from support with strong volume.
Long-term investor: SBI continues to be viewed as one of the stronger PSU banking stocks fundamentally, though entries are generally better near support zones rather than after sharp rallies. ICICI BankCMP: ~₹1,410
Immediate Support: ₹1,390
Major Support: ₹1,365–1,370
Strong Demand Zone: ₹1,330–1,340
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,430
Major Resistance: ₹1,470–1,500
Trading View
Bullish Scenario
Sustaining above ₹1,430 can trigger a move towards ₹1,470 and then ₹1,500.
Bearish Scenario
A break below ₹1,390 may lead to ₹1,365.
Below ₹1,365, the next support lies near ₹1,330.
Indicators
✅ Price is above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages.
✅ RSI is in bullish territory (around 60), indicating positive momentum without being deeply overbought.
✅ Trend remains positive while the stock holds above the ₹1,365–1,390 support zone.
Swing Trading Plan
Buy Zone: ₹1,390–1,405 (on bullish reversal)
Breakout Buy: Above ₹1,430 with strong volume
Targets: ₹1,470 → ₹1,500
Stop Loss: Below ₹1,365 Reliance IndustriesCurrent Zone: ~₹1,297–1,308
🟢 Support Levels
S1: ₹1,285–1,290
S2: ₹1,260–1,270
Major Support: ₹1,235–1,245
🔴 Resistance Levels
R1: ₹1,320–1,330
R2: ₹1,355–1,370
Major Resistance: ₹1,420–1,450
Trading View
Bullish Scenario
Sustaining above ₹1,330 can trigger a move towards ₹1,370, followed by ₹1,420.
Bearish Scenario
A breakdown below ₹1,285 may lead to ₹1,260, and further weakness could test the ₹1,235 region.
Strategy
Swing Buy: Above ₹1,330 with confirmation.
Profit Targets: ₹1,370 → ₹1,420.
Stop Loss: Below ₹1,285.
Fresh buying is preferable only after a confirmed breakout or a strong bounce from support.
Overall, the technical setup has improved from recent lows, but ₹1,330 remains the key breakout level. Traders should also watch the upcoming quarterly results, as they could significantly influence short-term price action. Long 
XAUUSD – Gold Is Bouncing, But The Downtrend Channel Still XAUUSD – Gold Is Bouncing, But The Downtrend Channel Still Controls Price
Gold is attracting some buyers in the Asian session, but the recovery still looks limited.
Price is currently trading around 4,030 after reacting from the lower area of the descending channel. This bounce shows that buyers are trying to defend the short-term low, but the bigger H1 structure is still moving inside a bearish channel.
For me, this is not a confirmed bullish reversal yet. It is a recovery into resistance.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term support as the U.S. dollar pauses after its recent strength. However, the market remains cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and Fed-related comments.
At the same time, rising geopolitical tension and expectations for a tighter Fed outlook may continue to support the U.S. dollar. This can limit gold’s upside and keep sellers active near resistance.
For now, the chart reaction around the sell zones is more important than chasing the rebound.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold is still trading inside a clear descending channel. Price has been making lower highs, and every recovery has been limited by resistance inside the channel.
The current bounce from the lower channel area may continue toward 4,047. This level is important because it was a previous strong support and may now act as a sell reaction zone.
Above that, the stronger trendline sell area sits around 4,078. This zone aligns with the descending channel resistance and the marked sell trendline area on the chart. If gold reaches this area and shows rejection, sellers may regain control.
The FVG above price remains another important resistance zone. As long as gold stays below the FVG and below the descending trendline, the bearish structure remains valid.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,030
Short-term reaction area: 4,047
Strong support turned sell zone: 4,047
Sell trendline zone: 4,078
Strong resistance: 4,080
FVG resistance: 4,095 – 4,110
Lower channel target: 3,950 – 3,960
Main bearish continuation area: Below 4,000
Invalidation for bearish view: Above 4,080
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario – Priority H1 View
If gold recovers into 4,047 – 4,078 and shows rejection, I will watch for bearish continuation inside the descending channel.
Sell Zone: 4,047 – 4,078
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed reclaim, lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from resistance
SL: Above 4,080 or above the nearest swing high
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 3,960
TP3: 3,950
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,000 with strong momentum, sellers may continue directly toward the lower channel area.
Sell Condition: Clean break below 4,000, followed by retest and bearish confirmation
Target: 3,960 – 3,950
Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Buy is not the main view while gold stays inside the descending channel. However, if price holds above the current low and breaks above 4,047, a short-term recovery may continue toward the trendline.
Buy Zone: Above 4,047 after confirmation
Entry: Bullish breakout, retest, or lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH
TP1: 4,078
TP2: 4,095
Invalidation: If price fails to hold above 4,047, the buy reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold remains bearish while price stays below 4,047 – 4,078.
The bounce is visible, but the chart still belongs to the descending channel. Buyers are trying to recover from the lower area, yet the real test is above. If gold reaches 4,047 or 4,078 and rejects, the sell continuation setup becomes much cleaner.
I do not want to chase price at the bottom, but I also do not want to call this bullish too early.
For now, gold is bouncing — but sellers still have the better structure unless price breaks above the trendline with strength.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,047 – 4,078, or can buyers finally break the descending channel?
Short 
Long
AUDUSD LONG Although the price action on AUD/USD isn't particularly clear, the pair is still trading above the 50 EMA on the weekly timeframe. Over the past two weeks, we've also seen strong bullish rejections, suggesting that buyers are still defending lower prices.
The 10 EMA and 20 EMA are converging, which indicates slowing momentum, but there's still a reasonable possibility that price could break above the previous week's high.
PDH is cleared.
On the 4-hour timeframe, after the recent rejection, I can identify a good Fibonacci setup. Price has closed above the 61.8% retracement of the last bullish impulse, which adds confluence for a potential long position.
My plan is to look for a long entry and target the previous week's high, with the possibility of extending the target slightly beyond it if momentum continues.
That said, this isn't a perfect setup. There is still a chance that price could break below the previous week's low. Additionally, the 4-hour break of structure isn't very convincing since it was only a wick break rather than a candle close above the level.
Overall, this isn't an A+ setup, but it's a valid trade idea with enough confluence to keep on my watchlist.
Long
