S&P 500: Fed Speaks, Chart Hits 0.618The Fed just blinked hawkish — and the market moved almost exactly where the chart said it might.
On September 16, the US Fed raised rates by 25 bps — the first hike in three years. The move itself was already priced in (92% odds going in). What actually shook the market was two words from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: he said policy needs to support a "timelier return" to the 2% inflation goal. Markets read that as "more hikes are coming, and soon" — and that's what sent the Dow down 630+ points and dragged the S&P 500 lower with it.
Here's where it gets interesting for chart readers: the S&P didn't just fall — it fell and stopped almost exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (7,505.98) of the entire rally from the May low. 0.618 is called the "Golden Ratio" for a reason — it shows up everywhere in nature, and in markets it's the most-watched retracement level of all. So many traders have orders sitting near it that it often becomes a self-fulfilling floor or ceiling. That's exactly what played out here.
The wave count on the chart
Zooming out, here's the structure I'm tracking:
Wave (I) → (II) : The May–August move up (I) got corrected by an a-b-c "Running Flat." . Two tells confirm this: wave (b) made a slightly higher high than wave (I), and wave (c) barely dipped below wave (a)'s low before buyers stepped back in. A shallow, reluctant wave (c) is a classic sign the bigger trend is still up — running flats usually show up right before a strong wave 3.
Wave (1) → (2) : After (II) bottomed near 7,313.92, price rallied to 7,816.70 (wave 1), then pulled back — and that pullback is exactly the move the Fed news triggered, landing right on the 0.618 line at 7,505.98.
Why this level matters
7,313.92 (the wave II low) is the line in the sand. As long as price holds above it, this bullish count stays valid. A daily close below it would mean this labeling needs a rethink.
If the count holds
Using the wave (II)-low-to-wave (2)-low as the base of a trend channel, and projecting a simple 1x extension of wave (1) from the wave (2) low, the first target zone lines up around 8,010. Third waves often run further than 1x — so if this move has real strength, a stretch target near 8,300 (1.618x) isn't out of the question either. These are reference zones to watch, not predictions of exact outcomes — wave 3 needs to actually break above 7,816.70 with strong, clean structure before this becomes more than a scenario.
Bottom line
Macro (hawkish Fed) and technicals (Golden Ratio holding, running flat completing) lined up perfectly this week. The structure stays bullish above 7,313.92. Above 7,816.70 with strength would be the next confirmation to watch for.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered research analyst. This post is shared only for education and learning purposes, based on my personal reading of the chart. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. Please do your own research or speak to a registered advisor before taking any trading decision. 
Long
Long
NIFTY : Guard for 18-Sep-2026 Price action15-Min Chart | Price Action • Opening Scenarios • Key Levels
Previous Close: 23,294.70
KEY LEVELS
🔴 23,436 — Last Intraday Resistance
🟠 23,320 — Opening Resistance / Support
🟢 23,169–23,190 — Opening / Last Intraday Support
🟢 22,939–22,979 — Buyer’s Support / Consolidation
🎯 23,574–23,634 — Profit Booking / Consolidation Zone
TRADING IDEA: Let the first 15–30 minutes establish direction. Trade the confirmation, not the prediction.
📈 GAP UP — 100+ POINTS
Opening above approximately 23,395 .
If price sustains above 23,436 → bullish continuation can target 23,500 → 23,574–23,634 .
If 23,436 rejects → watch 23,320 first, followed by 23,169–23,190 .
Action: Don't chase the gap. Wait for breakout/retest or clear rejection.
⚖️ FLAT / MODERATE OPENING
Opening roughly between 23,195–23,395 .
Above 23,320 + acceptance → watch 23,436 .
Above 23,436 + sustained breakout → 23,500 → 23,574–23,634 .
Below 23,320 → 23,250 → 23,169–23,190 .
Action: 23,320 is the immediate battlefield. Avoid trades inside a choppy range.
📉 GAP DOWN — 100+ POINTS
Opening below approximately 23,195 .
If 23,169–23,190 holds and bullish reversal confirms → 23,250 → 23,320 .
If 23,169 breaks with sustained selling → watch 22,939–22,979 .
Action: Don't blindly buy the dip. Let support prove itself first.
⚡ QUICK OPTION TRADING RULES
• Trade the NIFTY level first, option premium second .
• Avoid chasing the first 15-minute candle.
• Define SL before entry .
• Keep position size small enough that one SL doesn't damage your capital.
• Never average a losing option blindly.
• Sideways NIFTY + option buying = possible time-decay trap .
• Prefer confirmation + defined risk over prediction.
• Maximum 2–3 quality trades , not unlimited attempts.
📌 SUMMARY
Above 23,436 → watch for bullish continuation.
23,320–23,436 → decision/consolidation zone.
Below 23,320 → weakness toward 23,169–23,190.
Below 23,169 → 22,939–22,979 becomes important.
23,574–23,634 → profit-booking/consolidation zone.
CONCLUSION
Don't predict the opening — prepare for it.
Wait for price to confirm the level, manage risk mechanically, and let the market decide the direction.
DISCLAIMER
This trading plan is for educational and informational purposes only . I am not a SEBI registered analyst . This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. Please conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment professional before taking any trading decision.
Trade the setup. Respect the SL. Protect the capital.
Short
Long
NIFTY: Two-Sided Trading Plan for Tomorrow | Bearish BiasNIFTY closed at 23,270.60, below the important 50% Fibonacci level at 23,354.50. For tomorrow, the 23,335–23,355 zone is the key decision area.
Why is this a No Trade Zone?
This zone is important because the POC of the last two sessions has been developing around this area, showing significant trading activity.
Additionally, today's high was unable to clear this zone, which makes it an important resistance/decision area.
For this reason, I would avoid taking a trade blindly inside 23,335–23,355. Let price show acceptance or rejection first.
🔴 Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
The Developing POC is around 23,287.35.
If NIFTY gives a 15-minute candle close below 23,287 and sustains below the POC, it can provide confirmation for the bearish scenario.
T 1 - 23,255
T 2 - 23,218
T 3 - 23,198–23,180
The key point is that a temporary move below POC is not enough — wait for the 15-minute candle confirmation.
🟢 Bullish Scenario — Confirmation Required
If NIFTY reclaims 23,355–23,360 and gives a 15-minute candle close above the No Trade Zone:
T1 - 23,375–23,400
T2 - 23,410
T3 - 23,480 — 23.6% Fibonacci
Sustained acceptance above the zone would weaken the immediate bearish structure.
Gap-Up / Gap-Down Plan
GAP-UP: Don't chase the opening move. Wait for a retracement toward 23,335–23,355. If the zone holds as support and price confirms strength, the bullish scenario can be considered.
GAP-DOWN: Don't chase the first sell-off. Wait for a retracement toward the No Trade Zone. If the zone acts as resistance and price rejects it, bearish continuation can be considered.
Key Levels
23,480.35 — 23.6% Fib
23,410.75 — 38.2% Fib
23,354.50 — 50% Fib / Key decision level
23,335–23,355 — No Trade Zone
23,287.35 — Developing POC / Bearish trigger
23,218.10 — Lower reference
23,116.10 — Recent swing low
⚡ Tomorrow's Plan
BUY: Confirmation above 23,355–23,360
SELL: Confirmation below 23,287, or rejection from the No Trade Zone after a gap
AVOID: Chasing the initial gap or trading blindly inside 23,335–23,355
Personal bias: Bearish.
But the market decides — let price confirm the direction.
Educational market structure and trading plan for discussion only. Not investment advice. 
Long
NAS100USD 4H — Long SetupBullish setup forming at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
📍 Entry: ~29,035
🎯 1st Target: 29,450
🛑 Stop Loss: 28,755
📈 Risk/Reward: ~1:1.5
Price is reacting from channel support, and a move toward the 29,450 resistance/target could be possible if bullish momentum continues.
Key levels:
• 29,035 — Entry
• 29,450 — 1st Target
• 28,755 — Invalidaton / SL
• ~29,600 — Channel resistance
⚠️ Setup is based on technical analysis, not a guaranteed outcome. Manage risk accordingly. 
Long
Long
Long
WaveTalks Gold - Alternate Scenario : Ending Diagonal Below 4450Comex Gold is currently forming a C-Wave Ending Diagonal, presenting a highly lucrative yet highly emotional trading setup. While the current price action appears messy and volatile, this specific pattern offers clear diagnostic boundaries. If the structure holds, a final 5th-wave decline will open targeted downside targets before setting up a major reversal toward the pattern's origin point at $4,558 and potentially $4,755.
The Psychology of the Trade: Emotions vs. Patience
Emotions are the ultimate enemy of a trader. They are the primary reason short-term traders are forcefully transformed into long-term investors because they cannot conquer their own fear and greed.
When the market is in a messy consolidation phase, amateur traders lose money because they lack discipline and feel compelled to trade every minor sub-wave. Diagonals demand extreme patience.
The Rule of Subdivisions:
An Ending Diagonal requires 5 clear subdivisions.
The Required Attribute:
Successful trading requires sitting on your hands until the pattern reveals itself cleanly. You must wait for the setup to mature rather than chasing noise.
Technical Analysis: The C-Wave Ending Diagonal
The correction that started from the peak on August 25, 2026 ($4,755) is nearing its final evolutionary stage.
The 5th Wave Downside Path
We are entering the final leg (Wave 5) of the Ending Diagonal structure. Crucially, this entire 5th wave drop must unfold completely below the $4,450 mark.
This final leg (5th wave) is projected to develop as follows:
Primary Target Zone:
A drop down between $4,300 - $4,325.
Extension Target Zone:
If momentum breaks below $4,290, expect an extended drop into the $4,225 - $4,250 deep support cluster.
Risk Management: Line in the Sand
To maintain this specific wave structure, strict invalidation levels must be respected.
Allowed Behavior:
The price must stay structurally capped under the $4,400 - $4,410 resistance zone currently & below the $4,450 mark & complete 5th wave drop.
Not Allowed Behavior:
Any price action or close above $4,450 completely breaks the setup (If the 5th wave drop doesn’t unfold) or If gold breaches this zone before falling, the Ending Diagonal thesis is invalidated, and you must step aside.
Nurturing the Sprout: Reviewing the Support Zone
Once the final 5th wave drops into either Support Zone 1 ($4,300 - 4325) or Support Zone 2 ($4,225 - 4250), do not blindly catch the falling knife. Look for early confirmation.
Think of the reversal like a seedling sprouting out of the mud. When you see that first green shoot break through the soil where you planted your analysis, it is a gesture that it wants to grow stronger. As a trader, you do not force it; your only job is to manage it, water it carefully, and protect the soil through strict risk management.
The Signal: (After 5th wave drop gets completed)
Allow gold to form a sharp, impulsive upward move off the lows.
The Action:
Use that first impulsive swing to structure long positions with a tight invalidation floor beneath the newly formed low.
The Reward Matrix - Check the Snapshot
If this pattern executes as a textbook Ending Diagonal, the subsequent structural rally will be swift and powerful.
Diagonals typically retrace completely back to their point of origin.
Education 
Short
Long
Long
Tata Steel Attempts Recovery From Key SupportHighlights
* Tata Steel is trading around the ₹185–₹186 zone after correcting substantially from its May 2026 high of ₹224.40. The stock has recently stabilized around the ₹180–₹183 region and is attempting to build a recovery, although it still needs to clear important overhead resistance before the medium-term trend becomes decisively bullish.
* The ₹188–₹192 zone is the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above ₹192 could strengthen the recovery and open the door for an advance towards ₹198–₹202. Beyond that, ₹210–₹212 remains a major resistance zone.
* On the downside, ₹182–₹183 serves as immediate support, while ₹178–₹180 is the more important medium-term demand zone. A decisive breakdown below ₹178 would weaken the recovery structure and could expose the stock to ₹170–₹173.
* Momentum indicators are improving. RSI has recovered to around 55–57, indicating renewed buying momentum without being excessively overbought. ADX is also improving, while short-term moving averages have started turning supportive. MACD, however, remains relatively weak, suggesting that the recovery has not yet developed into a fully confirmed trend reversal.
* The daily chart is attempting to form a higher low around the ₹180–₹183 region following the recent correction. A breakout above ₹188–₹192 would be important because it would confirm that buyers are beginning to regain control. Until then, the stock may continue consolidating between roughly ₹180 and ₹192.
* Fundamentally, Tata Steel's Q1 FY27 performance was strong. Consolidated revenue reached approximately ₹60,794 crore, while EBITDA increased 25% YoY to ₹9,370 crore. Reported net profit increased to around ₹2,385 crore from ₹2,007 crore a year earlier, demonstrating improving profitability despite a volatile global steel environment.
* The Indian operations remain the major strength of the business. India EBITDA reached approximately ₹9,908 crore with a strong 27% margin, while EBITDA per tonne improved sharply to ₹19,162. Production and deliveries were temporarily affected by maintenance shutdowns, meaning normalization of volumes could provide additional earnings support over the coming quarters.
* European operations remain the key monitorable. The UK business continues to incur losses, although losses are narrowing, while the Netherlands operation was affected by temporary production disruptions. Further improvement in European profitability, combined with normalization of Indian volumes and supportive domestic steel prices, could become an important catalyst for the stock.
Takeaway
Tata Steel is showing early signs of recovery after establishing support around the ₹180–₹183 region. A sustained move above ₹188–₹192 could accelerate buying momentum and push the stock towards ₹198–₹202, with ₹210–₹212 becoming the next major target if momentum strengthens.
As long as Tata Steel holds above ₹178–₹180, the technical bias remains cautiously positive. However, I would view ₹192 as the important confirmation level before treating the current recovery as a stronger bullish reversal. A decisive break below ₹178 would invalidate the immediate recovery setup and could expose the stock to ₹170–₹173.
