SUNPHARMASupport
S1: โน1,855โ1,840
S2: โน1,815โ1,800
S3 (Strong): โน1,780โ1,790
Resistance
R1: โน1,900โ1,905
R2: โน1,918โ1,950
R3: โน1,990 (major swing target on a confirmed breakout)
Trading Plan
๐ข Bullish Scenario
Buy only after a sustained breakout above โน1,905 with strong volume.
Targets:
โน1,950
โน1,990
Stop-loss: Below โน1,865 or according to your risk management.
๐ก Buy-on-Dips
Watch the โน1,840โ1,865 zone for bullish reversal candles.
Stop-loss: Below โน1,790.
๐ด Bearish Scenario
A daily close below โน1,800โ1,790 could weaken the structure and open the way toward lower support levels.
Chart Patterns
MARUTISupport
S1: โน13,400โ13,450
S2: โน13,180โ13,250
S3: โน12,950โ13,000
Resistance
R1: โน13,800โ13,900
R2: โน14,000โ14,250
R3: โน14,550โ14,600
Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario
Buy only on a daily close above โน13,900
Targets:
โน14,250
โน14,600
Stop Loss: โน13,550
Bearish Scenario
If price closes below โน13,180, downside may extend towards:
โน12,950
โน12,700
Stop Loss for short trades: โน13,450
Technical View
RSI is around the neutral-to-bullish zone, indicating improving momentum.
MACD remains supportive of a recovery.
The stock is trying to form a higher-low structure after a prolonged correction, but confirmation requires a breakout above the immediate resistance zone.
Overall Bias
Above โน13,900: Bullish continuation likely.
โน13,400โ13,900: Range-bound; wait for breakout.
Below โน13,180: Weakness may resume.
BAJFINANCEResistance
R1: โน1,050โ1,056
R2: โน1,080โ1,085
R3: โน1,100โ1,102 (52-week high zone)
Support
S1: โน1,020โ1,025
S2: โน992โ1,000
S3: โน963โ965 (major weekly support)
Trading Plan
๐ข Bullish Scenario
Sustaining above โน1,050 can trigger a breakout.
Upside targets:
โน1,080
โน1,100
โน1,130 (if momentum continues)
๐ด Bearish Scenario
A close below โน1,020 may invite profit booking.
Downside levels:
โน1,000
โน992
โน963
Trend View
Short-term: Bullish
Swing Trend: Bullish above โน992
Momentum: Positive with buyers in control, but watch for rejection near โน1,080.
Asian PaintsCurrent Price: ~โน2,689
๐ข Support Zones
โน2,670โ2,675 โ Immediate support
โน2,645โ2,650 โ Strong demand zone
โน2,620โ2,630 โ Major swing support
๐ด Resistance Zones
โน2,705โ2,720 โ First resistance
โน2,740โ2,750 โ Breakout level
โน2,800โ2,850 โ Positional target zone
Trading View
Bullish Scenario
Sustaining above โน2,720 can trigger momentum toward:
โน2,750
โน2,800
โน2,850
Bearish Scenario
If price closes below โน2,645, downside may extend toward:
โน2,620
โน2,580
Swing Trading Strategy
Buy on dips: โน2,660โ2,675 (only if bullish reversal appears)
Breakout Buy: Above โน2,720 with strong volume
Stop Loss: Below โน2,640
Swing Targets: โน2,750 โ โน2,800 โ โน2,850
Technical Outlook
Trend: Mild Bullish
Momentum: Neutral to Positive (RSI ~52)
Bias: Buy on dips while price remains above โน2,645. A decisive breakout above โน2,720 would strengthen the bullish setup.
XAUUSD โ OB Rejection, Intraday Sell BiasMarket Context
Gold is trading around $4,008 after a short-term recovery from the lower liquidity area. However, the overall intraday structure is still weak because price remains below the descending trendline and has not reclaimed the upper supply zone.
The key area on this chart is the Sell zone OB around $4,030โ$4,037. This zone sits below the liquidity level near $4,043 and aligns with the descending trendline, making it the main reaction area where sellers may step back in.
SMC View
From an SMC perspective, gold already created bearish BOS and continued to trade under the main trendline. The recent bounce looks more like a corrective pullback into imbalance and supply, not a confirmed bullish reversal.
The FVG area may act as short-term resistance, but the stronger sell decision zone remains the OB at $4,030โ$4,037. If price taps this area and fails to break above the liquidity level, it can create a clean sell reaction toward the sellside liquidity below.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the Sell zone OB around $4,030โ$4,037 and forms bearish rejection. Lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH confirmation is needed before entry.
Entry: $4,030โ$4,037 after bearish rejection
SL: above $4,043
TP1: $4,008
TP2: $3,982
TP3: $3,960
Key Zones to Watch
Current price area: $4,008
Main sell zone OB: $4,030โ$4,037
Liquidity above OB: $4,043
FVG reaction zone: $4,018โ$4,022
Short-term support: $4,000
Sellside liquidity: $3,982
Intraday low target: $3,960
Trendline resistance: price remains below the descending trendline
Sell confirmation: rejection from $4,030โ$4,037 with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,043
Prime Gold View
My current view is that gold remains under intraday selling pressure while price stays below the descending trendline and the $4,030โ$4,037 OB zone. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid chasing sell at the current price and wait for price to pull back into the OB before looking for confirmation.
If sellers defend this OB, gold may continue lower toward $4,008, $3,982 and potentially the low area around $3,960. If price breaks and holds above $4,043, the sell setup becomes weaker and the market may need a new structure before the next decision.
No confirmation, no trade.
XAG/USD 4H Analysis: Falling Wedge Reversal | Buy the Dip Silver (XAG/USD) is approaching a technically important reversal zone on the 4-hour timeframe. After a prolonged bearish move, price has formed a falling wedge, a structure that often signals exhaustion of selling pressure and the beginning of a bullish reversal.
According to the Market Footprinting Trading Concept, the current price action suggests that sellers are gradually losing momentum while smart liquidity is being collected near a major demand area. The recent downside move appears to be a liquidity hunt, where price sweeps below support before preparing for a potential bullish expansion.
The highlighted grey demand zone represents a high-probability reversal area. However, patience is essential. Rather than entering blindly, traders should wait for an Initial Reversal (I.R.) confirmation, which serves as the trigger to validate buyer strength before considering long positions.
Market Structure
4H Falling Wedge Formation
Price trading inside a well-defined descending channel
Liquidity sweep below support (Hunting Zone)
Major demand/reversal area holding the downside
Bearish momentum showing signs of exhaustion
Trading Plan
โ
Wait for I.R. (Initial Reversal) Confirmation
โ
Look for a bullish breakout from the falling wedge.
โ
Buy on the retracement (Buy the Dip) after confirmation.
Bullish Outlook
If buyers successfully defend the reversal zone and break above the wedge resistance, Silver could initiate a fresh bullish leg. The breakout would confirm that the liquidity hunt has been completed, allowing price to target higher resistance levels over the coming sessions.
Key Reversal Zone: 54-53
Invalidation: A strong 4H candle closing below the reversal zone would weaken the bullish setup and delay the expected reversal.
Market Footprinting Trading Concept
"Trade Structure. Follow Liquidity. Wait for Confirmation."
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation and manage your risk before entering any trade.
TECHM Round Bottom Breakout SetupThe stock had been forming a round bottom structure, with price gradually recovering from the lower zone around โน1,320โโน1,340 and building strength over the last few sessions. After this curved recovery, the stock has now moved above the breakout area with a strong bullish candle.
The latest candle closed at approximately โน1,572.90, showing clear buying momentum. The breakout suggests that buyers have gained control, and the earlier resistance zone may now act as an important support area if the stock sustains above it.
Right Panel: Trade Setup
The right chart highlights the possible levels for the options breakout trade:
Entry/confirmation: Around โน35.30
Target: โน43.50
Stop-loss: โน27.00
The bullish setup remains valid only if the stock sustains above the breakout zone. A fall back below the breakout area may indicate a weak or failed breakout.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DONโT HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Cup and handle breakout in RESPONIND
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Bitcoin 1:6 RISK-REWARD TARGET ACHIEVED as given in lastpost**Bitcoin Trendline Breakout โ
| 1:6 Risk Reward Target Achieved | Price Action Trade Recap**
๐ BITCOIN TRADE RECAP | 1:6 RR TARGET ACHIEVED โ
A clean Trendline Breakout setup executed with patience and discipline.
๐ Entry only after breakout confirmation.
๐ Proper Stop Loss placement.
๐ High Probability Price Action Setup.
๐ 1:6 Risk Reward Target Achieved.
The market rewards traders who follow rulesโnot emotions.
๐ก Remember:
โ Wait for confirmation.
โ Manage your risk.
โ Never chase trades.
โ Let Risk Reward do the work.
If this trade recap helped you learn something new, don't forget to โค๏ธ Like, ๐ฌ Comment, ๐ Save, and ๐ค Share it with fellow traders.
Follow *for daily Price Action Analysis, ICT & Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Intraday & Swing Trading Setups, Trading Psychology, Risk Management, and High Probability Trade Setups.
Bitcoin, BTC, BTCUSD, Bitcoin Trading, Crypto Trading, Cryptocurrency, Crypto Market, Bitcoin Analysis, BTC Analysis, Crypto Analysis, Price Action, Price Action Trading, Technical Analysis, Trendline Breakout, Breakout Trading, Breakout Strategy, Risk Reward, 1:6 Risk Reward, Risk Management, Trading Psychology, Smart Money Concepts, SMC Trading, ICT Trading, ICT Concepts, ICT Strategy, Liquidity Sweep, Order Block, Fair Value Gap, FVG, BOS, CHOCH, Market Structure, Support and Resistance, Supply and Demand, Candlestick Patterns, Trading Education, Learn Trading, Intraday Trading, Swing Trading, Futures Trading, Scalping, Momentum Trading, High Probability Setup, Winning Trade, Trade Recap, Crypto Signals, Bitcoin Chart, Trading Strategy, Professional Trading, Trade With Logics
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #ICTTrading #TradeWithLogics
Day 3 - The 30 trade SeriesIn this series, we'll scan the markets each day in search of a very specific trend continuation setup. The objective is simple: take only 30 A+ quality trades that meet our criteriaโno forcing setups, no unnecessary trades.
Once all 30 trades are completed, we'll analyze the results, review the statistics, and reflect on what we learned about the strategy's performance, execution, and consistency.
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y closed 6bps higher for the last week amid the reignition of geopolitical tensions. The US CPI print came in lower than the market expectations, while Indian CPI inched higher to touch the 18-month high of 4.39%. Weak monsoon and crude oil prices will be the key parameters to focus on for the week, apart from the geopolitics.
For the coming week, I expect yields to trade in the range of 6.84% (50EMA)-6.76% (200EMA).
Let me know your thoughts. DYOR.
# **XAU/USD (Gold) 45-Minute Chart Analysis ## **Market Overview**
The 45-minute XAU/USD chart shows that gold remains in a **short-term recovery phase** after establishing a swing low around the **3,965โ3,980** region. Buyers have regained momentum, pushing price back above the psychological **4,000** level while approaching a previous supply area.
Although the broader trend has recently been bearish, the current structure suggests a **potential trend continuation to the upside**, provided the marked support zone continues to hold.
---
# **Technical Structure**
### **1. Market Trend**
* **Higher Low Formation:** Bullish
* **Short-Term Momentum:** Positive
* **Overall Structure:** Recovery within a broader downtrend
Price has started printing higher lows after rejecting the recent lows, indicating buyers are gradually taking control.
---
### **2. Support Zone**
**Support Area:** **4,000 โ 4,010**
This highlighted purple zone represents:
* Previous resistance turned support
* Multiple candle reactions
* Strong buying interest
* Psychological round-number support
As long as price remains above this area, the bullish scenario remains valid.
---
### **3. Resistance Zone**
Nearest resistance sits around:
**4,040 โ 4,060**
This area has rejected price several times previously and could temporarily slow bullish momentum.
A successful breakout above this level would confirm stronger buying pressure.
---
# **Trade Scenario**
## **Preferred Setup: Buy the Pullback**
Rather than chasing price higher, waiting for a retracement into support provides a better risk-to-reward opportunity.
### **Entry**
* Buy near **4,000โ4,010**
* Wait for bullish confirmation (bullish engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection candle).
---
### **Stop Loss**
Below the recent swing low.
Suggested area:
**3,985โ3,990**
---
### **Take Profit Targets**
**TP1**
* **4,040โ4,045**
* Previous intraday resistance
**TP2**
* **4,055โ4,065**
* Major resistance and projected measured move
---
# **Bullish Confirmation Signals**
Look for:
* Bullish engulfing candle
* Long lower wick rejection
* Strong buying volume
* Break above recent swing high
* Higher low maintained
These would strengthen the probability of continuation toward the target zones.
---
# **Invalidation Scenario**
The bullish outlook becomes weaker if:
* Price closes decisively below **4,000**
* Support fails with strong bearish momentum
* Lower lows begin forming
In that case, sellers could retest:
* **3,980**
* **3,965**
* **3,950**
---
# **Risk Management**
* Risk no more than **1โ2%** of trading capital per position.
* Wait for confirmation before entering rather than placing a blind limit order.
* Aim for a **minimum risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2**, with **1:3** preferred if targeting TP2.
---
# **Professional Outlook**
The chart presents a **bullish pullback opportunity** rather than a breakout trade. The **4,000โ4,010 support zone** is the key technical area to monitor. A confirmed bounce from this region could propel XAU/USD toward **4,040 (TP1)** and **4,060 (TP2)**. However, a decisive breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish setup and shift the short-term bias back to bearish.
**Bias:** **Moderately Bullish (Buy on Pullback)**
**Key Support:** **4,000โ4,010**
**Key Resistance:** **4,040โ4,060**
**Trading Strategy:** **Wait for a pullback into support, confirm buyer strength, then target higher resistance levels.**
Tech Mahindra โ Bullish Structure with Fair Value Gap SupportMarket Structure
Tech Mahindra continues to exhibit a bullish market structure, having established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This indicates that buyers remain in control and the prevailing trend continues to favor the upside.
Technical Observation
A significant Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies below the current price. This imbalance may serve as a potential support zone if the price retraces before continuing its upward move. A pullback into this FVG would be consistent with a healthy trend continuation rather than a change in market structure.
Volume Analysis
Today's trading session recorded relatively high daily volume, suggesting strong market participation. Elevated volume during an existing uptrend strengthens the conviction behind the bullish outlook and indicates sustained buying interest.
Trade Thesis
The bullish trend remains intact as long as the higher highโhigher low structure is respected. A retracement into the Fair Value Gap, followed by evidence of support, could present a favorable opportunity to participate in the continuation of the trend.
## Key Factors
* Bullish market structure with consecutive higher highs and higher lows.
* Presence of a significant Fair Value Gap acting as a potential support zone.
* Strong daily volume, indicating increased participation and reinforcing the bullish bias.
Personal Note
The primary reason for considering this trade is the alignment of trend structure, a potential support reaction from the Fair Value Gap, and above-average trading volume. During future backtesting, review how price reacted upon revisiting the FVG and whether the elevated volume contributed to trend continuation or signaled exhaustion.
Ending Diagonal in Wave C | Zigzag vs Flat CorrectionOne of the most overlooked Elliott Wave concepts is that Wave C of both Zigzag and Flat corrections can terminate as an Ending Diagonal.
This chart compares both corrective structures side by side and highlights their key differences.
๐ Left Side โ Zigzag (5-3-5)
A Zigzag correction consists of:
Wave A: 5-wave Impulse
Wave B: 3-wave corrective structure
Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal
Key Characteristics
โ
Wave B is a corrective move with three subwaves (A-B-C).
โ
Wave B should not make a new high beyond the start of Wave A in a standard Zigzag.
โ
Wave C unfolds as an Ending Diagonal, where:
Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1.
Trendlines converge.
Momentum gradually weakens.
The correction often ends with exhaustion before a reversal.
๐ Right Side โ Flat (3-3-5)
A Flat correction has a different internal structure:
Wave A: 3-wave correction
Wave B: 3-wave correction
Wave C: 5-wave Ending Diagonal
Key Characteristics
โ
Wave A itself is corrective, not impulsive.
โ
Wave B commonly retraces most or all of Wave A and can even create a new price high, depending on the Flat variation.
โ
Wave C again develops as a 5-wave Ending Diagonal, showing:
Wave 4 overlapping Wave 1.
Converging trendlines.
Declining momentum.
A high-probability reversal near completion.
๐ Why the Ending Diagonal Matters
The Ending Diagonal is a terminal pattern that signals a trend is approaching exhaustion.
Important features include:
Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1.
All five waves subdivide into corrective structures.
Price becomes compressed inside converging trendlines.
A sharp reversal often follows after Wave 5 completes.
โ
Confirmation for Long Entry
Rather than buying during the formation of the Ending Diagonal, confirmation is generally stronger after price breaks above the Wave 4 resistance, indicating that the corrective structure has likely finished and a new impulsive move may be underway.
๐ก Educational Takeaway
Understanding the difference between Zigzag (5-3-5) and Flat (3-3-5) is essential for identifying the correct Elliott Wave count.
Although both patterns can end with an Ending Diagonal in Wave C, the behavior of Wave A and Wave B is what distinguishes them.
Recognizing these structural differences can help traders anticipate trend exhaustion and prepare for the next impulsive move.
****************************************************************
Warning โ
Educational purposes only. This chart illustrates Elliott Wave concepts and one possible market interpretation, not a guaranteed market outcome.
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short sellsorry for sharing this idea late, there is a good resistence at 15 min for the stock and looks ike it will make a move towrds the opening of the first candle of the day. if it makes a slitght pull back at the fib level from the current high to current runniong position (71%) then try to short and sl above the high
XAUUSD/GOLD 4H SELL LIMIT PROJECTION 20.07.26XAUUSD / GOLD 4H Sell Limit Projection
Gold is currently recovering after the Evening Star pattern failed near the 3980โ4000 region. This bullish recovery may push the price back towards the major resistance zone.
Sell Zone: 4044โ4052
This area has strong bearish confluence:
Descending trendline resistance
Resistance R1 and R2
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Previous rejection zone
We expect price to retest this zone and show bearish rejection before continuing downward.
Stop Loss: 4070.99
Take Profit 1: Around 4027โ4028
Take Profit 2: 4001.51
#pcjeweller TechnoFunda pickTechnoFunda pick: as company raising fund through QIP and PEG ratio below 1
as breakout on trendline so we can consider for long term with stoploss
add above 10.5 for 14++ (40%)
and closely follow stoploss on chart below 8.5
risk reward ratio is perfect
hope for best will review again
NIFTY: Buyers Regain Control Above 24,300NIFTY: Buyers Regain Control Above 24,300, But 24,200 Remains the Line to Watch
I'm seeing a noticeable improvement in NIFTY's structure after today's move.
On the daily chart, the index has reclaimed and is holding above its 50-day moving average near 24,060. More importantly, price has moved back above 24,300, a level that had acted as resistance over the past few sessions. As long as NIFTY sustains above this zone, the short-term bias remains positive.
On the 15-minute chart, the market is making higher highs and higher lows, with price comfortably trading above the 20 EMA. This tells me buyers are still controlling the intraday trend, although the current rally is approaching a resistance zone where profit booking can emerge.
The option chain also supports this view. The 24,300 strike is acting as the immediate pivot, while Put premiums remain relatively firm below 24,300, indicating traders are still protecting lower levels. Unless this support weakens, the probability of buyers defending dips remains higher.
my focus is simple:
- Above 24,300: Bulls remain in control, with scope toward 24,400โ24,500.
- A dip toward 24,200: I would treat it as a healthy retracement as long as buyers step in quickly.
- Below 24,200: The bullish structure starts to weaken, and short-term momentum could fade.
๐ Trading Lesson
Not every red candle is a reversal.
In a healthy uptrend, markets often pull back to test support before continuing higher. The key is to watch whether buyers defend those levels. Strong trends usually survive pullbacks; weak trends don't.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 20/07/2026Nifty is expected to witness a gap-up opening following Friday's strong recovery and sustained buying interest. The index is trading above the immediate support zone around 24250โ24300, indicating that bulls continue to maintain control. Traders should wait for confirmation after the opening before taking fresh positions.
If Nifty sustains above 24250โ24300 after the opening, traders can consider long positions with upside targets of 24350, 24400, and 24450. A decisive breakout above 24500 will further strengthen the bullish momentum and can extend the rally towards 24650, 24700, and 24750+.
On the downside, if Nifty fails to hold 24200 and slips below this support, traders can consider short positions with downside targets of 24150, 24100, and 24050. Unless 24200 is broken decisively, avoid aggressive bearish trades as the overall intraday bias remains positive.
Overall, a gap-up opening is expected with a bullish bias. As long as Nifty holds above the 24250โ24300 support zone, buying on dips remains the preferred strategy. Traders should avoid chasing prices near resistance and instead wait for confirmation around key breakout levels while maintaining disciplined stop-losses.
GOLD: SELLERS TIRED?Where we closed: Gold finished the week at 4,017, down 103 points or 2.51%. That is the biggest weekly drop of this entire decline, and it is the first weekly close below 4,059 in four weeks.
Weekly COT (Positioning)
Positioning went quiet this week. Large specs are net long 194,246 contracts, up just 227. Commercials are net short 222,282, down 1,212. Small traders added 985. Open interest rose slightly to 371,776. In plain terms, almost nobody moved. After a week with CPI, PPI, and two days of Fed testimony, the big money barely changed its book. That is unusual and it tells you the professionals are waiting, not positioning.
Spec %OI sits at 52.2% and still reads STRETCHED. The crowd is heavily long. But the 156-week indices cool it down again: Spec Index 50.3 and Comm Index 47.1, both neutral, with retail at 47.9. The panel verdict is COT Setup NONE for the third week running. Positioning is crowded but not extreme. It gives no edge this week. The 6-week move shows specs +16.4 and commercials -14.6, so the drift is still specs buying into commercial selling, which is the same pattern that has been in place through the whole slide.
Weekly Charts
Intermarket got worse, not better. The weekly driver split is now Bull 0%, Neut 6%, Bear 94%, up from 88% two weeks ago. Real yields at 2.32% rising, dollar at 100.97 rising, breakevens falling, gold/silver rising to 71.9, miners underperforming, gold in euro terms at 3,512 and falling, gold versus stocks falling. The regime reads HEADWIND.
One change worth flagging: VIX has climbed to 18.8 from the 15 to 16 area it sat in all month. Rising fear can eventually bring a haven bid into gold. It is not doing that yet, but it is the first thing on that panel that could turn in gold's favor.
The forward 20-bar odds are 49.6%, a coin flip. July seasonality is neutral at +0.56% with a 41.5% hit rate.
Weekly structure and levels are the story. Price at 4,017 is now inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, not sitting on top of it. For three straight weeks buyers pushed the wicks into that zone and closed back above 4,059. This week they failed. The upper boundary is gone.
That matters, but read it correctly. The zone is not broken. Price closed inside it, not below it. The line that actually breaks the floor is 3,884. Above, the next real supply is far away at 5,009 to 5,238, so there is plenty of room if buyers ever take control. Below 3,884, the next serious demand is the monthly zone at 3,453 to 3,281, and that is a wide gap of open air.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, last high a Lower High and last low a Lower Low. Resistance is 4,180, over 4% away. Support is 3,999, less than half a percent below.
But Friday closed up 1.02%, a strong green day, and it bounced right off the rising trendline. That line has now been touched nine times and it held again. This is the same line we have been watching all week, and it is doing its job.
The daily intermarket read is better than the weekly. Driver split improved to Bull 6%, Neut 15%, Bear 79%, which is the first bull reading on that panel in weeks. The dollar has gone flat at 100.71 instead of climbing. That is two small cracks in a wall that was 100% bearish on Wednesday.
The multi-timeframe box now shows 15m and 1H both bullish, with 4H, 1D, and 1W still bearish. Two green boxes, up from zero on Thursday. Short-term buyers are showing up.
The Hurst cycle is the loudest bullish signal on the board. The trough window reads OPEN NOW at 87% of cycle, with the next crest projected about 10 bars out. Last cycle was right-translated, amplitude is expanding, confluence is 70%. The timing model says a cycle low is landing right here, and Friday's bounce off the trendline is exactly what that would look like.
H4
Structure is bearish, resistance at 4,068 and support at 3,976, with price wedged between them.
The Wyckoff panel is the piece bears should not ignore. Bias reads ACCUMULATION, phase C test, with a Spring 20 bars back. The event log shows 2 springs and 0 upthrusts in this range. Springs are shakeouts below support that snap back, and they are what accumulation looks like from the inside. Zero upthrusts means sellers have not managed a single successful fake-out to the upside. Volume on the current bar is neutral at 0.9x, so no red flag either way.
The 4H range is 4,023 to 4,382 and price is just under the range low. Overhead, the supply stack starts immediately at 4,046 to 4,076, then 4,096 to 4,131, then 4,178 to 4,195, then the big daily supply at 4,236 to 4,363. Every rally has to chew through four layers of sellers.
Data For Next Week
This is the quiet part, and that changes the character of the week.
There is no tier-one US data next week. No CPI, no jobs report, no Fed decision. The heavy stuff all landed this past week and gold sold off through all of it. What is left is second-tier: jobless claims, flash PMIs, and housing numbers. None of those usually move gold more than a few dollars.
The next real anchor is the FOMC decision on Wednesday, July 29, which is the week after next. That means next week is a positioning week ahead of the Fed, not a reaction week.
Here is why that matters. With no headline to hide behind, price has to make its own decision at these levels. No data means the market trades structure, and structure is exactly what is coiled right now.
Bottom Line
Gold lost 4,059 on the weekly close for the first time in four weeks, and that is a genuine bearish mark. But it closed inside the demand zone, not below it, and it bounced off the nine-touch trendline on Friday. Both things are true.
The bear case is straightforward. Weekly macro is 94% bearish, structure is bearish on the weekly, daily and 4H, and the level that held three times finally gave way. Sellers earned that.
The bull case has quietly gotten stronger. The Hurst trough window is open now, the 4H shows accumulation with two springs and zero upthrusts, 15m and 1H have flipped bullish, the daily macro cracked from 100% bear to 79% with a 6% bull reading, the dollar went flat, and VIX is rising. That is five separate tells appearing in the same week.
The plan for the week: 3,884 is the whole trade. Hold it and the accumulation and cycle read get a chance to work, with the first real test at 4,068, then 4,131, then 4,180. Lose 3,884 on a weekly close and the zone is finished, and there is very little between there and 3,453.
For sellers, rallies into 4,046 to 4,076 remain the cleaner entries with the descending trendline overhead. For buyers, nothing is proven until 4,068 is reclaimed and held. Do not buy just because the level is pretty. Wait for the reclaim.






















