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XAUUSD: Bullish Wave 5 may begin after pullback.Gold is showing a clear recovery structure after completing the previous bearish cycle near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the chart is now shifting into a bullish Elliott sequence, but price may still need one corrective pullback before wave 5 continues higher.
The key idea is simple: gold is bullish in the short term, but the better setup may come from a clean retest of the buy zone, not from chasing the current push.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has reacted strongly from the lower base near 3,960 and created a sequence of higher lows. Price has already broken back above the descending pressure line, which is an important sign that sellers are losing control in the short-term structure.
Gold is now trading around 4,075 after a strong recovery move. However, price is approaching the 4,090–4,100 sell wave 4 zone, so a short correction from this area would be normal.
The main support to watch is the 4,040–4,050 buy zone wave 5. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, the next upside leg may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target near 4,145–4,155.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,040–4,050: buy zone wave 5 and key pullback area
◌ 4,075: current price reaction area
◌ 4,090–4,100: sell wave 4 / short-term resistance
◌ 4,138: previous Fibonacci reference zone
◌ 4,145–4,155: final wave 5 completion area
◌ Below 4,030: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Below 4,000: area where the wave count needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bullish 5-wave recovery after the previous bearish structure ended.
Wave 1 created the first upside reaction from the low.
Wave 2 corrected back but held above the base.
Wave 3 expanded strongly and pushed gold back above the broken trendline.
Wave 4 may now form as a controlled pullback into the 4,040–4,050 buy zone.
If that zone holds, wave 5 may begin and aim for the 4,145–4,155 completion area.
This is why Kelly would not chase the current price directly into resistance. The stronger setup is to wait for wave 4 to finish, then look for confirmation that wave 5 is starting.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to pull back into the buy zone wave 5 and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,040–4,050 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,030
Take profit 1: 4,090–4,100
Take profit 2: 4,138
Take profit 3: 4,145–4,155
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,100 without a pullback and holds strongly, price may continue directly towards the wave 5 target. In that case, a retest of 4,090–4,100 as support would become the cleaner continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the bullish recovery structure is improving, but the market is now close to a short-term resistance zone. That means the best plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,040–4,050 and buyers defend the zone, the next wave 5 move may continue towards the higher Fibonacci target.
Gold is building a bullish Elliott structure.
A controlled pullback may prepare the next move higher.
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EWP, understanding WXY Pattern Combinations - Part 2(HDFC Bank) In my earlier post, I explained WXY Combinations using Mahindra & Mahindra. Let's reinforce the concept with another live example—HDFC Bank, one of the most influential constituents of the Nifty 50.
Under the Elliott Wave Principle, corrections are not always limited to a single Flat, Zigzag, or Triangle. Quite often, these simpler corrective structures combine to extend both time and price . These are known as Combinations, and are labelled WXY (Double Three) or WXYXZ (Triple Three).
HDFC Bank appears to be undergoing one such WXY Combination after completing a larger-degree impulse wave on 23 October 2025.
Wave "W" – Zigzag
The first corrective structure (Wave W) is a Zigzag.
Wave A was relatively small.
Wave C extended significantly, reaching approximately 2.414 times the length of Wave A.
Wave “W” got completed on 1 April 2026.
The internal wave subdivisions are shown on the chart.
Wave "X" - Counter wave
Wave X developed as a small five-wave impulse, completing on 16 April 2026, and connected the two corrective structures.
Wave "Y" – Expanded Flat
The stock then began forming Wave Y, which currently appears to be an Expanded Flat .
Both Wave A and Wave B display clear three-wave structures, satisfying one of the key characteristics of a Flat.
Since Wave B has retraced more than 100% of Wave A, this correction is classified as an Expanded Flat.
Wave C is currently developing.
What Should We Watch Next?
If this wave count remains valid, Wave C should complete the Expanded Flat by forming at least an equal or lower low than Wave W. Based on the current structure, that places the focus around the 726–727 zone, with Wave C ideally unfolding as a five-wave motive sequence .
Given HDFC Bank's significant weight in the Nifty 50, its ongoing corrective structure could continue to act as a headwind for the index, although the broader market direction will also depend on the behavior of the other index constituents.
Key Learning
One of the biggest challenges in Elliott Wave analysis is recognizing when a correction has not yet finished. WXY combinations often extend corrections in both time and price, testing the patience of traders who assume the first ABC correction marks the end of the move.
Educational purpose only. Not a buy or sell recommendation.
If you wish me to cover any other important concept in EWP, leave a comment, I will post same when I come up with a live example.
Education
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XAUUSD: Wave 5 bearish trend continues.Gold is still trading under short-term bearish pressure after failing to hold above the recovery trendline. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that price may be preparing for another downside continuation, with wave 5 still open towards the lower Fibonacci target zones.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but the bearish structure remains valid while price stays below the sell zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold attempted to recover from the lower area, but the rebound lost strength near the 4,020–4,030 region. Price is now trading around 4,004 and reacting below the broken uptrend line.
This is important because the trendline that previously supported the recovery is now acting as a retest area. If gold cannot reclaim this line with strength, the current bounce may only be a correction before the next bearish leg continues.
The nearest sell-test area is around 4,005–4,012, while the stronger sell zone wave 4 sits near 4,020–4,030. As long as these zones hold, sellers still have the technical advantage.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,005–4,012: sell-test trendline zone
◌ 4,020–4,030: sell zone wave 4 and main resistance
◌ 4,004: current price reaction area
◌ 3,982: first buy scalping reaction level
◌ 3,959: next support checkpoint
◌ 3,938–3,945: Fibonacci 1.618 target area
◌ 3,855–3,865: possible wave 5 completion zone
◌ Above 4,030: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started the downside move after the recovery failed.
Wave 2 created a short rebound but could not break the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger selling pressure.
Wave 4 is now likely forming as a retest into the trendline and sell zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,938–3,945 first, then 3,855–3,865 if momentum expands.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a bullish reversal yet. The market is still below the key resistance and the Elliott structure still supports one more downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the sell-test trendline or the sell zone wave 4 and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,005–4,030 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,030
Take profit 1: 3,982
Take profit 2: 3,959
Take profit 3: 3,938–3,945
Take profit 4: 3,855–3,865 if wave 5 extends strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,030 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a sell-the-retest structure. Gold has not fully reversed yet, and the current reaction is happening under the broken trendline and wave 4 resistance.
The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation near resistance, not chase price while it is already close to support.
Gold remains vulnerable below the sell zone.
If sellers defend 4,005–4,030, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below.
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Elliott Wave Principle: Understanding Wave ExtensionsFollowing my last week post on the Complete Elliott Wave Market Cycle, here is another important concept for beginners: Wave Extensions.
Ever wondered why some trends suddenly accelerate far beyond expectations? In Elliott Wave Principle, the answer is often a Wave Extension.
In a standard impulse, the market advances through five waves; out of the five, three are actionary waves which move in the direction of the larger trend .
Wave 1 – Actionary
Wave 2 – Corrective
Wave 3 – Actionary
Wave 4 – Corrective
Wave 5 – Actionary
What Is a Wave Extension?
An extension is an elongated impulse wave with exaggerated internal subdivisions . In most impulse structures, only one of the three actionary waves is typically extended.
The extended wave develops its own visible five-wave subdivision , allowing it to travel significantly farther than the other actionary waves. This is the reason why suddenly a trend accelerates. Depending on which wave extends, the structure is referred to as, Wave 1 Extension, Wave 3 Extension or Wave 5 Extension.
Why Extensions Matter
Extensions provide a useful clue about the likely behavior of future waves. For example:
If Wave 1 and Wave 3 are of similar length, there is an increased probability that Wave 5 may become the extended wave. This relationship helps traders anticipate where additional momentum may emerge.
What the Chart Shows
In this example, both Wave 3 and Wave 5 display extended characteristics:
Wave 3 : Extended. Developed its own 5-wave subdivision, achieved a length of ~2× Wave 1
Wave 5 : Extended. Developed its own 5-wave subdivision. Achieved an equal length of Wave 3, known as equality.
Additional Learning from the Same Chart
Wave 2 formed a Flat correction , one of the three primary corrective structures. This appears to be a Regular Flat , where: A ≈ B ≈ C. The internal symmetry of the correction is clearly visible on the chart.
What to Watch Next
The decline following the completion of Wave 5 is beginning to resemble another Flat corrective structure . At this stage, it is still developing, so the final classification will become clearer only as additional waves unfold.
The Key Takeaway
Extensions often explain why a trend accelerates unexpectedly and can provide valuable clues about the structure of the remaining move.
Educational purpose only — not a buy or sell recommendation. 
Education
XAUUSD: Wave 5 downside can extend further.Gold is still trading under bearish pressure after breaking below the short-term structure. From Kelly’s view, the current recovery looks more like a corrective bounce inside a bearish Elliott sequence, not a confirmed reversal yet.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but as long as price stays below the sell zone, the wave 5 downside scenario remains active.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold broke down from the previous support area and pushed into the lower Fibonacci extension zone. Price has reacted from the 3,975 buy scalping area, but the rebound remains limited while gold trades below the 4,027 sell zone.
The current price is around 3,997, showing a small recovery after the breakdown. However, this recovery is still under resistance. If sellers defend the 4,020–4,027 area, gold may continue lower towards the 3,943 support zone, where the chart marks the possible end of wave 5.
The higher OB sell zone around 4,062 remains the key area where the bearish structure would be seriously tested.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,975: buy scalping reaction zone
◌ 3,997: current price reaction area
◌ 4,020–4,027: sell zone and wave 4 resistance
◌ 4,062: OB sell zone and major resistance
◌ 3,943: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / possible wave 5 end
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the breakdown.
Wave 1 started the first bearish move from the upper area.
Wave 2 corrected back into resistance but failed to continue higher.
Wave 3 pushed price sharply lower through support.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a short corrective rebound.
If the 4,020–4,027 sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,943.
This is why Kelly would not chase buy too early. The current bounce is still below resistance, and the larger short-term structure remains bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the 4,020–4,027 sell zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,020–4,027 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,062
Take profit 1: 3,975
Take profit 2: 3,960
Take profit 3: 3,943
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,027 and continues above 4,062 with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a bearish intraday setup. Gold has reacted from the lower zone, but price has not reclaimed the sell zone yet.
The cleaner plan is to wait for the retest. If sellers defend resistance, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below.
Gold is trying to bounce.
But below 4,020–4,027, the downside structure still has priority.
Share your view below. Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Prevails◈ XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Still Controls the Structure
Gold is facing renewed selling pressure as the market reacts to stronger USD demand and rising concerns around inflation expectations. From Kelly’s view, the chart also supports this bearish tone, with price still trading below the key sell zone and showing signs that another Elliott wave decline may continue.
The key idea is simple: gold is not yet showing a clean bullish recovery, and the structure still favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has been moving in a repeated bearish rhythm, with several recovery attempts failing near resistance. After the latest rebound, price could not hold above the 4,060–4,080 area and quickly rotated lower again.
The current price is around 4,036, while the nearest sell zone is sitting near 4,020–4,035. This area is important because price is trying to stabilise here, but the recovery is still weak. If sellers continue to defend this zone, gold may drop back towards the lower Fibonacci support.
The main downside target remains the 3,940–3,955 area, where the chart marks the support zone, Fibonacci 1.618 extension, and potential end of wave 5.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,020–4,035: current sell zone and short-term resistance
◌ 3,985–4,000: buy scalping wave 4 reaction area
◌ 3,940–3,955: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / wave 5 target
◌ 4,060–4,080: resistance area if price rebounds
◌ Above 4,080: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave continuation after the previous corrective rebound failed.
Wave 1 started the decline from the upper resistance area.
Wave 2 created a short recovery but failed to change the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure.
Wave 4 may be developing around the 3,985–4,000 reaction area.
If the sell zone continues to hold, wave 5 may extend towards 3,940–3,955.
This is why Kelly would still treat the current market as bearish unless gold can reclaim the higher resistance zone with strength.
▸ Fundamental backdrop
Gold is under pressure as energy-driven inflation concerns keep the market cautious about the Fed’s policy path. If traders continue pricing in a more hawkish Fed outlook, the US Dollar may stay supported and limit gold’s recovery.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension is also supporting USD demand as a safe-haven currency. This creates a difficult environment for gold in the short term, especially when the technical structure is already leaning bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,020–4,035 sell zone before expecting bearish continuation.
Sell zone: 4,020–4,035 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,080 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 3,985–4,000
Take profit 2: 3,960
Take profit 3: 3,940–3,955
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,080 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is still trading under bearish pressure. The macro backdrop supports USD strength, while the technical chart shows price failing to reclaim key resistance.
The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the low, but to wait for a reaction around the sell zone. If sellers defend that area, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below.
Gold remains vulnerable.
As long as resistance holds, the downside structure still has priority.
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XAUUSD: Bearish Wave 5 May Persist TodayGold is showing weakness again after failing to hold the recovery structure above the short-term resistance area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that price may be developing a bearish wave 5 move, with sellers still active below the 4,035–4,040 sell zone.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favors downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015–4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960–3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035–4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,035–4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,026: current reaction area
◌ 4,015–4,025: support area under pressure
◌ 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
◌ 3,960–3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035–4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960–3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035–4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035–4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035–4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
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