GOLD’S NEXT MOVE COULD SHOCK THE MARKETSo we are back again near one very important key level, which is $4734. If you read my posts carefully, then you already know that I explained the importance of this level back in April itself. As long as the market stays below this level, bearish pressure remains active, and once the market starts sustaining above it, bullish pressure will dominate again. Right now, the market is showing some reversal signs near this area because there are still many active sellers present there. You can clearly see on the chart as well — on the left side, gold previously showed heavy selling with very zigzag price action from this same area. That’s why I believe a direct breakout of $4734 will not happen immediately, but based on price action and psychology, I still believe the breakout will definitely happen later.
The reason is simple — $4734 is a very important and publicly visible resistance zone. If you look carefully, selling started from this area around 20th March, and again during the week of 23rd April, the market reacted from the same zone. Because of that, many traders who still don’t want to give up on selling believe this is the best area to short the market again. And that is exactly why the market is also giving sellers an opportunity to build positions here.
At the same time, I believe gold will not move easily in favor of buyers today because many traders who missed yesterday’s buying move already entered buy positions after the Asian session opened today. Most of them are holding buys thinking that, just like yesterday, today will also become a one-sided rocket move upward. But in my opinion, buyers will not make money that easily today. I believe gold will first create confusion, frustrate both sides, and only after trapping traders properly will fresh buying continuation come into the market.
According to my view, below $4734, gold should first give a selling move just to trap the buyers who are currently holding buy positions with Asian low stop losses. I believe the market may trap them on Thursday, and then near the key demand zone I already mentioned earlier around $4640-$4660, gold can again show a strong reversal. That is where I personally plan to look for buying opportunities with a bigger lot size. From there, my first target will again be above $4734, and overall I believe gold can eventually move toward $4775, $4820, and even $4850.
Also, try to stay active during off-session timings. Whenever you notice price closing near $4734 or trading around that zone, stay alert especially during the early Asian session or near market closing hours. There is a strong possibility that big players may do nothing throughout the day and make their real move only when most retail traders go offline. That’s the feeling I currently have because whenever $4734 finally breaks properly, I believe a very strong upside move will come again and push gold toward $4800+ in a one-sided rally.
I hope everyone understood this simple psychological gold trading plan clearly and is now ready to trade with better clarity. What’s your personal view on gold right now? Let me know in the comments.
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Global Financial MarketsGlobal financial markets are systems where people, companies, and governments buy and sell financial assets across the world. They help move money from those who have extra funds to those who need funds.
Main Types of Global Financial Markets:
Stock Markets – Buying and selling shares of companies (e.g., NYSE, NSE).
Bond Markets – Governments and companies borrow money by issuing bonds.
Foreign Exchange (Forex) Markets – Trading currencies like USD, EUR, INR.
Commodity Markets – Trading gold, oil, wheat, etc.
Money Markets – Short-term borrowing and lending.
Derivatives Markets – Contracts based on assets like stocks or currencies.
Importance:
Provide funds for business growth
Support international trade
Create investment opportunities
Help manage financial risks
Affect global economies
Example:
If the US stock market falls sharply, markets in Asia and Europe may also be affected because markets are connected globally. 
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Institutional Trading MasterclassInstitutional trading means trading like hedge funds, banks, prop firms, and professional desks. They do not trade based on emotions, random tips, or gambling. They use systems, probabilities, risk control, position sizing, discipline, and psychology.
Retail traders often lose because they focus only on “entry.” Institutions focus on:
Risk Management
Capital Protection
Position Sizing
Probability
Psychology
Consistency
Repeatable Edge
In options trading, if you think like institutions, your results can improve significantly. 
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Greaves Cotton LtdDate 07.05.2026
Greaves Cotton Ltd
Timeframe :- Weekly Chart
Cmp 173.17
(1) Significant full-year turnaround, posting a consolidated profit of ₹35.29 crore for FY26 compared to a loss of ₹6.28 crore in FY25
(2) Revenue from Operations: ₹3,436.62 crore for FY26, an 18% YoY growth.
(3) International Contribution: Grew to 13% of core revenue, up from 9%
(4) Exceptional Items: Quarterly results were impacted by an impairment provision of ₹15.98 crore and a ₹15.75 crore provision related to new Labour Codes.
(5) Engines & Energy Solutions: Revenue rose 17% in Q4, led by a 35% surge in the aftermarket segment.
(6) Mobility Solutions: Grew 20% in Q4, supported by strong demand for Euro V+ compliant diesel engines in international markets.
(7) Electric Mobility: Greaves Electric Mobility recorded 61,597 unit registrations in FY26, a 51% annual increase, capturing a 4.4% market share
(8) Greaves Finance: Scaled Assets Under Management (AUM) to over ₹521 crore, up from ₹445 crore in December 2025
Key Points From CONCALL
Cost Efficiency (Project 2027):
A key driver for future margins is the plan to set up an in-house battery assembly line at the Ranipet plant in Tamil Nadu. Scheduled for commissioning in May 2026 with commercial production by July 2026, this move targets the 33%–54% of component costs currently spent on external battery packs.
Segment Financials:
GEML contributed approximately ₹172 crore in revenue for Q4. Management has highlighted that while subsidiaries are growing top-line, the goal is for consolidated margins to improve as fixed costs are absorbed by higher volumes.
Regards,
Ankur Singh
Long
VEDL Price ActionAs of October 23, 2025, **Vedanta Limited (VEDL)** closed at around **₹483.25**, up approximately **1.6%** from the previous close near ₹475.65. The stock traded within a range of ₹474.65 to ₹484.85 during the day, reflecting sustained buying interest and moderate volatility.
Vedanta's market capitalization is about **₹1.89 trillion**, making it one of the largest diversified natural resources companies in India. Its earnings per share (EPS) stand at roughly **₹37.11**, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around **13.0**, indicating an attractive valuation relative to some peers in the metals and mining sector.
Technically, Vedanta is in a mild uptrend, trading above both the 50-day (₹452.40) and 200-day (₹441.10) moving averages, which represent strong support levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 60, indicating strength without being overbought.
Key support is positioned around ₹475, while resistance may be encountered near ₹490–₹495 levels. Overall, the medium-term outlook is positive, supported by stable commodity prices, cost control measures, and steady operational performance. Traders may look for a breakout above ₹490 to confirm further upside potential, while any dip closer to ₹470–₹475 may be viewed as a buying opportunity.
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GOLD TRAP CONFIRMED NEXT MOVE WILL SHOCK YOUSo in the market right now, a lot of sellers have already been shocked because of the one-sided buying during Wednesday’s Asian session. But to be honest, this move was expected—I already mentioned this in my weekly analysis.
The market simply did some manipulation for 2 days to build sellers’ confidence and make buyers hesitate. Then, taking advantage of that, big players made a smart move on Tuesday and slowly pushed the market to higher levels without letting anyone notice. And then deliberately, right at the Wednesday open, they created a strong one-sided move so that maximum traders couldn’t participate.
That’s how the game played out.
Now let’s understand what could happen next and what our plan should be for Wednesday.
Looking at the kind of buying we’ve seen today, no doubt most sellers are badly trapped. As I clearly mentioned in my weekly analysis, the 4640–4660 zone is very important because the market previously took resistance from this area on Friday. Due to that, many fresh (late) sellers became active there, creating strong liquidity—which was always likely to be taken out. This move was mainly to trap those sellers.
However, since the market hasn’t yet closed above the full 4640–4660 zone and the previous Friday high, sellers will still try to sell in that area. That’s something we should wait and watch.
I don’t expect heavy selling—just a small reaction followed by quick continuation towards the upside. The situation now is such that sellers will try to enter at higher levels, while many traders will wait for a decent retracement to buy. But the market may not give a deep retracement, because if it does, too many buyers will get a perfect entry.
That’s why I believe any retracement will be shallow and followed by continuation upward. So for today, it’s better to plan trades on smaller timeframes like 1–3 minutes.
Also, as I said at the start of the week, 4572 is a strong institutional buying level—and today we got confirmation of that. So as long as the market stays above this level, any selling should be considered a trap. Keep this in mind: above this level, our overall bias remains bullish.
For today’s targets, I’m looking at:
* 4660
* 4678
* Max: 4700
And I don’t expect the market to close below 4610 now. So we should focus on buying above this level, ideally around 4625–4633–4640 zones.
Good luck to everyone for Wednesday.
By the way, what’s your view? Let me know in the comments.
Short
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XAUUSD 30m: Potential Bullish Reversal from Key Demand ZoneDemand Zone Support: Price has successfully retraced into a significant Demand Zone located between $4,506 and $4,518. This area has previously shown strong buying interest.
Reversal Area Resistance: A clear Reversal Area (supply zone) is identified near $4,590 - $4,600. Price is currently approaching this zone, which served as a previous breakdown point.
Long Entry Idea: Look for entries on successful retests or sustained holding above the $4,550 level. Primary Target: $4,590 - $4,600 (Reversal Area).
Secondary Target: If the reversal area is breached, the next major objective is the previous structural high near $4,640 - $4,660.
Invalidation Point (Stop Loss): A daily close below the $4,500 psychological support would invalidate this bullish setup.
Market Sentiment: Continued central bank buying provides a long-term floor, though short-term price action remains sensitive to U.S. dollar strength. US Tariffs & Trade WarsUS Tariffs & Trade Wars
Updated May 2026 · All figures from current market research
Avg. effective tariff rate
11.8%
Up from 2.5% in Jan 2025
Peak tariff rate (China)
145%
April 2025 peak
IEEPA tariffs collected
$166B
Later ruled unconstitutional
USD decline (2025)
−10%
Dollar Index (DXY)
---------------------------------------------- Key policy events ------------------------------------------
Jan – Mar 2025
25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico goods; 25% on all steel & aluminum globally, eliminating prior exemptions.
Apr 2, 2025 — "Liberation Day"
Blanket 10% tariff on all imports from ~180 countries; country-specific "reciprocal" rates up to 49%. Triggered a global stock market crash; S&P 500 fell below 5,000.
Apr 9, 2025
90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. S&P 500 surged 9.5% in a single day — largest gain since 2008. China's rate raised to 145%.
Mid-2025
Steel & aluminum tariffs raised to 50%. Trade deal frameworks reached with EU, Japan, South Korea, and a US-China truce.
Feb 2026
Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. Trump announced new 10% global tariff under Section 122 for 150 days.
---------------------------------------------- Market & asset class impact -----------------------------
Equities
S&P 500 fell 10% in two days post-Liberation Day. Tech, basic materials, and energy hit hardest (−7% to −9%). Partial recovery followed each pause announcement. J.P. Morgan targets S&P range of 5,200–5,800.
US Dollar
Dollar depreciated on Liberation Day — contrary to standard theory. Foreign investors reallocated away from US equities. DXY down ~10% for 2025. Central banks globally accelerated gold purchases as dollar alternatives.
Commodities
Gold rose as a safe haven. WTI oil fell on global demand concerns. Steel & aluminum prices elevated due to import restrictions. Agricultural commodities hurt by retaliatory tariffs on US exports.
Fixed Income
US Treasury 10-year yields initially fell, then rose sharply post-Liberation Day (bond vigilantism). Concerns over Fed independence added pressure. BlackRock & others remain underweight long-duration Treasuries.
-------------------------------------------- Key risks & watch points ----------------------------------
Policy unpredictability
Critical
Tariff rates can change within hours. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index skyrocketed in 2025. Companies face near-impossible demand forecasting conditions. Any escalation with EU or China is a major risk trigger.
Inflationary pressure
Elevated
US firms absorbed ~60% of tariff costs in 2025; pass-through to consumers is accelerating. Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Fed has limited room to cut rates to provide stimulus.
Supply chain re-routing
Structural shift
US imports from China near 2001 levels. Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Eastern Europe emerging as alternative sourcing hubs. Regional supply chains could account for 50% of global trade by 2030 (BCG). Efficiency losses are long-term. 
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XAUUSD Elliott Wave SetupPOSITIONING FOR THE WAVE 3 CRASH TO 4,350
Market Structure & Wave Count
Wave (1) Completion: The initial impulsive move to the downside has concluded at the "Strong Support" area (4,500 – 4,520), establishing a structural low and breaking the prior bullish A-B-C correction.
Wave (2) Retracement: Price is currently completing a technical correction, pushing up to retest the "Sell zone wave 2" between 4,560 and 4,580.
Wave (3) Confirmation: Strong price rejection at the current Sell Zone will confirm the end of the corrective phase and the start of Impulsive Wave (3)—typically the most powerful and aggressive move in an Elliott Wave sequence.
Key Technical Levels
Primary Sell Zone: 4,560 – 4,580. This supply cluster is where institutional bears are expected to re-establish dominant short positions.
Interim Support: 4,500 – 4,520. Expect minor reactionary bounces at this strong support; however, this level is unlikely to hold against the heavy momentum of Wave (3).
Downside Targets: The primary target for the upcoming Wave (3) is 4,429.831. The ultimate high-probability extension target for the completion of the 5-wave cycle is 4,351.913.
Execution Strategy
Bias: Heavily Bearish. Focus exclusively on high-probability short setups.
Action Plan: Utilize the current Wave (2) retracement into the 4,560 – 4,580 block to build short exposure. A sustained break below the 4,500 structural low will confirm the acceleration phase of Wave (3).
Invalidation: Any daily close above the Double Top peak at 4,640.561 completely invalidates the current bearish wave count.
Outlook
The price path is projected to expand lower through a 5-wave internal sub-structure. Following a powerful Wave (3) drop to 4,429.831 and a minor Wave (4) pullback towards 4,471.491, the market is aiming for the major liquidity pool near 4,351.913.
Patience is the key. Trade the plan. Short 
Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD) - H6 TimeframeGOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (XAU/USD) – H6 TIMEFRAME Market Overview Gold is currently trading around $4,531, following a sharp correction from the recent peak near $5,350. Although short-term macro fundamentals such as a stronger US dollar, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions are weighing on gold, the current technical structure suggests early signs of constructive recovery. 1. Current Market Structure Medium-Term Trend Gold remains within a medium-term bearish trend, evidenced by: A descending trendline extending from the March high A sequence of lower highs However: Structural Shift Signals Price is beginning to form a higher-base consolidation zone after the sharp decline This indicates buyers are gradually absorbing selling pressure and defending support levels This may represent the early stages of a trend reversal or, at minimum, a sizeable technical rebound. 2. Liquidity Zone Analysis Buy-Side Liquidity The chart highlights a major buy-side liquidity area between: $4,650 – $4,720 This zone represents: A concentration of short-term highs Potential institutional liquidity accumulation before a bullish expansion Sell-Side Liquidity A notable sell-side liquidity pool sits lower around: $4,150 – $4,200 Should current support fail: This becomes the likely downside liquidity target for sellers 3. Key Resistance Levels Target 1: $4,727 First resistance level of the recovery structure Aligns with recent breakout / swing high zone A break above would signal a short-term bullish structural shift Target 2: $4,895 Strong medium-term resistance Historical reaction zone with multiple prior rejections Target 3: $5,048 Extended bullish objective Also coincides with retest of the broader descending trendline 4. Primary Technical Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Preferred) If price holds above the $4,450 – $4,500 support zone: Expectations: Consolidation completes Price rallies towards: $4,727 A confirmed breakout above this level opens upside to: $4,895 Extended target: $5,048 Confirmation Signals: H4/H6 candle closes above $4,727 with strong volume Break of the short-term descending trendline Bearish Scenario If price breaks below $4,450 support: Risks: Current consolidation structure invalidated Market likely seeks lower liquidity Downside Targets: $4,300 Then $4,150 – $4,200 5. Fundamental Overlay Despite improving technical signals, several macro factors continue to pressure gold: Key Headwinds: Persistent Inflation Reinforces expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook Reduces appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold US Dollar Strength Makes gold less attractive globally US–Iran Tensions Supporting the USD’s safe-haven demand in the near term rather than gold 6. Overall Assessment Short-Term Bias: Neutral to Bullish Medium-Term Bias: Bearish Trend Intact, but Reversal Base Forming Trading Preference: Favour buying confirmed breakout strength rather than pre-emptive bottom-picking Long 
ONLY 1% WILL SURVIVE THIS GOLD MOVESo in gold, today after the market opened, we were expecting some selling. But honestly, I didn’t expect the market to completely sweep Friday’s low.
As I mentioned earlier, the 4640–4660 zone had active sellers. If the market dropped, more sellers were likely to jump in because the resistance was clearly visible to everyone.
To be honest, the market *shouldn’t* have swept Friday’s low—but it still did.
The simple reason, according to me, is this:
Last week’s low was around 4509, which is very close to the key psychological level of 4500. After a one-sided drop last week, the market showed a reversal from 4509. Because of that, many traders jumped into buying positions around this level, keeping their stop-loss at 4500 or slightly below, since it’s a very important psychological level.
Along with that, gold has already completed a correction on the downside. Due to this, many buyers are becoming aggressive at these levels.
This is why gold is not rallying easily. Instead, it’s deliberately creating confusion and frustrating traders. Those who are chasing entries are losing money, and the market is likely trying to shake out maximum participants—so that when the real buying move starts, most people are either out of capital or stuck in regret, just watching the move.
Now let’s talk about the plan for Tuesday.
So far, the market has not given a breakdown below 4500. This means buyers are still active, and possibly more buyers have entered after the retracement and small reversal.
However, in my view, one more downside move is still pending.
The structure formed on Monday looks strong and is currently in favor of sellers. Without a proper liquidity sweep, a valid reversal from just above 4500 doesn’t seem likely yet.
According to me, gold should first attract more buyers and then move lower—possibly towards 4485–4467, and in the extreme case around 4440–4460.
From those levels, I expect a major reversal and a shift in direction.
For Tuesday, I prefer a wait-and-watch approach. I’ll plan trades on higher timeframes like 30min–1H, as I’m aiming for a bigger swing trade.
Based on market behavior, one thing is clear to me: gold *wants* to go up—but before that, it may first take liquidity from buyers and cause losses on the buying side.
So taking confirmation before entering trades will be the safest approach.
What’s your plan for gold? Let me know in the comments. ⬇️
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