Harmonic Patterns
XAUUSD News Projection – 10 September 2026
Gold is currently testing the key 4,376–4,377 support zone. The next confirmed direction depends on the PPI inflation data and the reaction of the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Bullish scenario
Weaker-than-expected PPI → DXY may weaken.
Gold must reclaim and break 4,444.
After a successful retest, the upside target is approximately 4,484.
Bullish setup becomes invalid below roughly 4,422.
Bearish scenario
Stronger-than-expected PPI → DXY may strengthen.
Gold must close below 4,376 and retest the zone as resistance.
Confirmed rejection can extend the decline toward 4,341.
Bearish setup becomes invalid above roughly 4,396.
Major correction in the chart:
The bottom text should say:
IF NEWS POSITIVE → DXY STRONGER → GOLD SELL
Also, the heading should be “Core PPI & PPI News Projection”, not “Core CPI & PPI.”
Avoid entering immediately during the news spike. Wait for the breakout, candle close, retest and confirmation
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS 4,350, BUT 4,400 IS THE KEY TEST BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS 4,350, BUT 4,400 IS THE KEY TEST
Gold is trying to recover again after defending the weekly low area near 4,350.
The move is being supported by a weaker US dollar, especially as the Japanese yen continues to strengthen. That pressure on the USD has helped gold rebound from the 50-day SMA area. However, the recovery is not completely clean yet because price is still trading below the 21-day SMA and remains under a short-term value resistance zone.
So the current market is simple:
Gold has buyer reaction from support.
But buyers still need to reclaim value before momentum turns strong again.
Technical structure
On the 45-minute chart, gold is trading around 4,378 after rejecting from the VAH / HVN Resistance zone near 4,420 - 4,435.
This rejection shows that sellers are still active around the upper part of the current value range. Price has now dropped back below the POC / Value Support zone around 4,395 - 4,405, which makes this area the first resistance to reclaim.
The most important buyer zone below is 4,352 - 4,360. This is the marked buy zone and also the lower reaction base from the latest recovery. If gold holds this level, buyers may attempt another push back into 4,400 and then 4,420.
But if 4,352 fails, the recovery structure weakens and gold may rotate deeper before finding stronger demand.
Important zones
Current price area: 4,375 - 4,385
Gold is pulling back after failing to hold above short-term value.
POC / Value Support: 4,395 - 4,405
First reclaim zone. Buyers need to regain this area to reduce selling pressure.
VAH / HVN Resistance: 4,420 - 4,435
Main short-term resistance where sellers reacted before.
Upper Value / Distribution Zone: 4,460 - 4,475
Higher supply area if gold breaks above 4,435.
Buy zone: 4,350 - 4,360
Main buyer reaction area and key support for the current structure.
Trading scenario
Priority view: wait for buy reaction from 4,352 - 4,360
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if gold pulls back into 4,352 - 4,360 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the local sweep low or below the buy zone.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,395 - 4,405
TP2: 4,420 - 4,435
TP3: 4,460 - 4,475 if buyers reclaim value strongly
This setup follows the idea that gold is still trying to build a recovery from the lower support area, but confirmation is needed because sellers are still defending the upper value zones.
Alternative scenario
If gold reclaims 4,395 - 4,405 cleanly and holds above it, buyers may attempt a direct recovery toward 4,420 - 4,435.
But if price rejects again from 4,395 - 4,405, the market may rotate back toward 4,352 before deciding the next move.
I would not chase buy in the middle without confirmation.
Final view
Gold is showing a positive reaction from the 4,350 support area, helped by USD weakness, but the technical structure still needs confirmation.
The key battle is now around 4,400.
If buyers reclaim 4,395 - 4,405, gold can continue toward 4,420 - 4,435. A breakout above that zone would open the path toward the upper value area near 4,460 - 4,475.
If gold fails to reclaim 4,400 and loses 4,352, the recovery becomes weak again.
For me, the map is simple:
Hold 4,352 = buyers still have a chance.
Reclaim 4,400 = recovery improves.
Break 4,435 = bullish momentum returns.
Reject 4,400 = price may retest the buy zone.
Lose 4,352 = downside risk expands.
Gold is recovering, but not fully confirmed yet. The next clean signal will come from either a strong defense at 4,352 or a clear reclaim above 4,400.
Will buyers protect the 4,350 base again, or will sellers keep control below the 4,400 value zone?
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd Trend ContinuationApollo Hospitals has completed a Multi-Week Breakout above its prior consolidation zone. Trading well above its 20-Week EMA (₹8,928.30) and all major daily moving averages, the stock is demonstrating strong structural momentum toward fresh highs.
Key Trade Parameters
Entry Range: Current Levels / Re-test zone at ₹8,925 – ₹8,957
Stop Loss: ₹8,591.50 (placed strictly below the recent swing consolidation base)
Target 1: ₹9,323.50 (Initial upside extension)
Target 2: ₹9,738.50 (1-year analyst price target / macro extension)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R) Breakdown
Risk Per Share: ~₹365.50 (from an entry near ₹8,957 down to SL of ₹8,591.50)
Reward to Target 1: ~₹366.50 (R:R Ratio ~ 1:1)
Reward to Target 2: ~₹781.50 (R:R Ratio ~ 1:2.14)
Execution Note: To optimize risk management, trail stop loss to breakeven or to the 20-Week EMA once Target 1 (₹9,323.50) is achieved, allowing the remaining position to ride toward Target 2
Disclaimer: aliceblueonline.com
NIFTY- Intraday Levels :- 11th September 2026 NIFTY sustain above 23508/33 above this bullish then 23584/96 then 23618/25 above this more bullish then 23633 then 23739 above this wait more level are marked on chart
If NIFTY sustain below 23393 below this bearish then 23357/310 below this more bearish below this wait more levels marked on chart
My view :-
"My viewpoint, offered purely for analytical consideration,
The trading thesis is: Nifty (bullish tactical approach: buy on dip).
Expect both side movements, view will be opposite of opening price view. unless it opens with huge gapup or gap down.
*Also Friday factor anything can happen be careful*
This analysis is highly speculative and is not guaranteed to be accurate; therefore, the implementation of stringent risk controls is non-negotiable for mitigating trade risk."
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
TCS (TCS.BSE) — Bias: Neutral / Range-boundRecent news & context: IT majors like TCS have been sensitive lately to US tech-spending signals and INR/USD moves — no single catalyst here, just consolidation after a sharp bounce.
Price action: Bounced hard off a ₹1976 low (Jul 1) to ₹2494 (Jul 30), then has been chopping in a ₹2250–2370 range for the past 3 weeks — no clear breakout either way yet.
Buy Above: ₹2375 → Target 1: ₹2420, Target 2: ₹2455
Sell Below: ₹2245 → Target 1: ₹2200, Target 2: ₹2150
Range to watch: ₹2245–2375 (act only on a confirmed break either side)
TCS both sides deliberately, rather than forcing a bias — that's what the data actually shows, and it's more useful (and more publishable) than pretending certainty that isn't there.
Disclaimer: aliceblueonline.com
TVS MOTOR Bias: Bullish (buy-on-dip continuation)Recent news & context: TVS Motor's Q2 FY26 results showed a 42% year-on-year jump in net profit to ₹795.5 crore, with revenue up 25.6% YoY, driven by strong premium motorcycle and electric-scooter demand. The stock has been one of the strongest performers in Nifty Auto over the past year, and the EV scooter segment has been a particular growth driver.
Price action: Rallied from ~₹3490 (early July) to a high of ₹4484.7 (Aug 26), then pulled back sharply to ₹4123.5 (Sep 1) — a healthy ~8% pullback within a larger uptrend, now stabilizing near ₹4200.
Buy Above: ₹4330 (reclaim of recent swing resistance)
Target 1: ₹4415
Target 2: ₹4485–4550 (previous swing high zone)
Potential Support (invalidation): ₹4123
Disclaimer: aliceblueonline.com
Reliance Weekly Bias and what encourages a breakout.Looking at the actual weekly closes I already pulled:
Recent 8 weeks have been range-bound between ₹1250–1345, not breaking out either direction
The stock is well below its Jan 2026 high (~₹1611) — this is consolidation, not a breakout setup right now
This week's low (₹1271) tested near the bottom of that range and bounced to close at ₹1301
RELIANCE — Bias: Neutral/Range-bound (watch, not act)
Key resistance: ₹1345–1350 (weekly close above → bullish breakout)
Key support: ₹1250 (weekly close below → bearish breakdown)
If breakout confirms: Entry ₹1350+, SL ₹1310, Target 1 ₹1400, Target 2 ₹1450
If breakdown confirms: Entry below ₹1245, SL ₹1275, Target 1 ₹1200, Target 2 ₹1150
What encourages a breakout to actually happen:
A catalyst — earnings beat/miss, a sector-wide re-rating, index inclusion/exclusion, policy news (RBI rate moves, budget announcements), FII/DII flow shifts
Sector rotation — money moving into a theme (e.g., defense, PSU banks, EVs) lifts correlated names together
Broader index momentum — individual stock breakouts are far more reliable when Nifty/Bank Nifty itself is trending, not chopping
Short covering — a crowded short position unwinding on good news can accelerate a breakout sharply
Disclaimer: aliceblueonline.com
XAUUSD H1 – Sell Projection XAUUSD H1 – Sell Projection
Gold is currently trading inside a potential rising-wedge structure, while the broader descending trendline continues to act as resistance.
Trade confirmation:
Wait for a decisive H1 break below 4404–4400.
After the breakdown, watch for a retest and bearish rejection near 4404–4407.
Stop-loss: 4419.43
Target 1: 4400
Target 2: 4388
Final target: 4377.29
The bearish projection is supported by the rising-wedge breakdown possibility, descending trendline pressure, repeated rejection around 4418–4420, and the lower support zones below.
Invalidation: An H1 candle close above 4419–4420 weakens this sell setup. A sustained breakout could push gold toward 4428 and possibly 4440–4444.
Important correction: Since the planned entry around 4406 is below the current market price, it should be called a sell-stop/break-and-retest sell entry, not a sell limit.
EURUSD – Trendline Breakout, Bullish Structure Building🔍 Market Overview
EURUSD is showing a clear bullish shift on the daily timeframe after breaking above the long-standing descending trendline. The move suggests that the previous bearish structure is losing control while buyers are gradually taking over.
Price is now holding above the breakout area, with recent pullbacks remaining relatively controlled. As long as this structure stays intact, the broader setup favors further upside continuation.
📈 Market Structure Details
Market Trend: Bullish
Momentum: Improving
Current Phase: Breakout → Retest → Bullish Continuation
The trendline breakout is the key technical development. After spending a prolonged period under bearish pressure, EURUSD has reclaimed an important structure and is beginning to form a stronger base above it.
The current consolidation can be viewed as a pause rather than immediate weakness, provided buyers continue to defend the breakout zone.
🚀 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario — Preferred Setup
Conditions to watch:
Price remains above the broken descending trendline.
The breakout area continues to act as support.
Buyers maintain the recent recovery structure.
Bullish momentum strengthens after controlled pullbacks.
Trading Plan:
Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks toward the breakout structure rather than chasing price higher. A successful retest followed by renewed buying pressure would provide a cleaner continuation setup.
🎯 Target 1: 1.1795
🎯 Target 2: 1.1930
A clean move through the first target would strengthen the bullish structure and increase the probability of an extension toward the second objective.
❌ Bullish Invalidation Conditions
Price falls back below the broken trendline.
The breakout structure fails to provide support.
Buyers lose control of the recent higher-low structure.
Strong bearish momentum returns.
A decisive breakdown of the main support structure would weaken the bullish thesis and suggest that the breakout has failed.
📍 Key Levels to Watch
🟢 First Target: 1.1795
🟢 Main Target: 1.1930
🔴 Key Area: Breakout / support structure
⚠️ Trading Outlook
The daily structure currently favors buyers following the breakout above the descending trendline. More importantly, EURUSD has remained above the broken structure instead of immediately falling back below it.
For now, I favor bullish continuation toward 1.1795, followed by 1.1930, as long as buyers continue to protect the breakout area.
The better approach is to wait for a controlled pullback and confirmation rather than chasing an extended move.
🧠 Professional Assessment
This setup is supported by:
Breakout above a major descending trendline.
Breakout structure is being respected.
Bullish momentum is gradually improving.
Recent pullbacks remain controlled.
Clear upside objectives remain open.
Preferred approach: Focus on buying controlled pullbacks while the recovered structure remains intact. A clean retest could offer a more structured risk-to-reward opportunity than entering after an extended bullish move.
🛡️ Risk Management
Risk only 1–2% of trading capital per position.
Define invalidation before entering.
Avoid chasing extended bullish candles.
Keep leverage controlled during volatile sessions.
Wait for confirmation around key market structure.
Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
XAUUSD M30 – Downtrend Breakout, Bullish Structure Strengthening🔍 Market Overview
XAUUSD is showing a bullish recovery on the M30 timeframe after breaking above the descending trendline. This breakout suggests that the previous selling pressure is weakening and buyers are gradually regaining control.
More importantly, price continues to hold above the main support structure, keeping the short-term bullish outlook intact. As long as this area remains protected, further upside expansion remains the preferred scenario.
📈 Market Structure Details
Short-Term Trend: Bullish
Momentum: Improving
Current Phase: Breakout → Retest → Bullish Continuation
The break above the descending trendline marks an important change in short-term structure. Recent pullbacks have also remained controlled, suggesting that sellers are struggling to regain momentum.
If buyers continue to defend the breakout structure, XAUUSD has room to extend higher.
🚀 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario — Preferred Setup
Conditions to watch:
Price remains above the broken trendline.
The main support structure continues to hold.
Buyers maintain the recent higher lows.
Bullish momentum returns after pullbacks.
Trading Plan:
Look for buying opportunities on controlled pullbacks rather than chasing price after strong bullish candles. A successful retest of the breakout structure could provide a cleaner continuation setup.
🎯 Target 1: 4,435
🎯 Target 2: 4,475
A clean break above the first target would strengthen the case for further bullish expansion.
❌ Bullish Invalidation Conditions
Price falls back below the broken trendline.
Buyers fail to defend the main support structure.
Recent higher lows begin to break.
Sellers regain control with strong bearish momentum.
A decisive breakdown below the support structure would weaken the current bullish thesis and suggest that the breakout may have failed.
📍 Key Levels to Watch
🟢 First Target: 4,435
🟢 Main Target: 4,475
🔴 Key Area: Main support / breakout structure
⚠️ Trading Outlook
The current M30 structure favors buyers following the breakout above the descending trendline. The market is no longer showing the same bearish pressure seen earlier, while buyers continue to defend pullbacks.
For now, I favor bullish continuation toward 4,435 and potentially 4,475, provided the breakout structure remains intact.
The key is not to chase the move, but to wait for price to offer a more controlled entry around support.
🧠 Professional Assessment
This setup is supported by:
Breakout above the descending trendline.
Main support structure remains protected.
Improving short-term bullish momentum.
Buyers continue to defend pullbacks.
Clear upside objectives remain open.
Preferred approach: Wait for a controlled pullback or bullish continuation confirmation. The structure remains constructive as long as sellers fail to reclaim the breakout area.
🛡️ Risk Management
Risk only 1–2% of trading capital per position.
Define invalidation before entering.
Avoid chasing extended bullish candles.
Keep leverage controlled during volatile sessions.
Wait for confirmation around key structure.
Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
XAGUSD Is Pressing Higher — 67.28 Could Be the TriggerIf I look at XAGUSD right now, the most interesting part is not the recent bounce itself, but the way buyers are gradually pushing price back toward resistance without losing the support structure underneath.
The macro backdrop is still giving silver some support. A softer U.S. dollar continues to help precious metals, while geopolitical uncertainty keeps defensive demand alive. At the same time, stronger Chinese trade activity remains a positive factor for silver’s industrial-demand outlook. The main risk still comes from U.S. inflation and Fed expectations, so volatility could remain elevated.
On the H3 chart, price is holding above the 65.39–66.11 immediate support zone and is now pressing toward 67.28. What stands out is that the latest pullbacks have stayed relatively shallow, suggesting sellers are struggling to regain control. The Ichimoku structure is also improving, while the broader support base around 62.80–63.40 remains well protected.
For me, 67.28 is the key level now. If buyers can break and hold above it, the market could shift from consolidation into a stronger continuation phase, opening the way toward 68.50–69.00 first and eventually the major resistance area around 70.80–71.20.
As long as XAGUSD continues to hold above the immediate support zone, I see the current structure as pressure building beneath resistance rather than a market preparing to roll over. Sometimes the breakout becomes obvious only after the market has spent enough time quietly absorbing supply.
XAUUSD: Buyers Are Still in ControlConsidering both the macro backdrop and technical structure, I still maintain the view that XAUUSD remains in an uptrend. The short-term pullbacks have not been strong enough to alter the broader structure and instead appear to reflect the market absorbing selling pressure before its next move.
Fundamentally, gold continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Although U.S. Treasury yields are still high and upcoming inflation data could increase volatility, gold has remained relatively resilient. This suggests that defensive capital is still flowing into the market and buyers have not stepped away.
On the H1 chart, the 4,350–4,365 area continues to serve as an important support base, reinforced by the ascending trendline that has repeatedly supported price. XAUUSD is also holding above the Ichimoku area around 4,392–4,397, keeping the bullish structure intact. As long as this support framework remains protected, I believe the probability still favors further upside.
The next key objective sits at 4,495–4,500 — a major psychological resistance zone where price has previously shown a strong reaction. A decisive breakout above this area would further strengthen the bullish case.
Overall, my preferred strategy remains BUY on pullback rather than selling against the prevailing trend. As long as XAUUSD holds above 4,350–4,365, the short-term advantage remains with buyers, and 4,500 stays firmly in focus as the next major target.
Xauusd gold today update daily level 10.9.2026.*🟡 XAU USD (GOLD) – TODAY UPDATE 🟡 ⏰*
*Validity: 10-09-26*
*🔹 Bullish Scenario (BUY)*
*• Trend Confirmation: Above 4450*
*• Targets: 4484– 4535*
*🔻 Bearish Scenario (SELL)*
*• Trend Confirmation: Below 4340*
*• Targets: - 4310-4260*
*🔄Key Reversal /Entry : 4392*
The Psychology of Waiting for Your Setup📊 The Psychology of Waiting for Your Setup
Many traders know they should wait for a good setup. The difficult part is actually doing it. When price starts moving, the mind begins saying:
“Maybe this is close enough.”
“What if I miss the breakout?”
“If I wait for confirmation, the premium will run away.”
And this is where many unnecessary trades begin. Seeing movement is not the same as seeing a setup.
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📊 A Setup Has Stages
Think of a trade in four stages:
1️⃣ Context
Trend, structure, VWAP and key levels.
2️⃣ Setup Forming
Price approaches your area of interest.
3️⃣ Trigger
Breakout, retest, reclaim or confirmation occurs.
4️⃣ Risk Check
Invalidation and R:R are acceptable.
Only then should the setup become a trade.
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📊 “Almost Valid” Is Still Not Valid
Suppose your setup requires:
• Price above VWAP
• Resistance breakout
• Volume expansion
• Retest hold
If only three are present, the setup is incomplete.
Do not enter because:
“It will probably confirm.”
Wait for the condition your system actually requires.
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📊 FOMO Is Often a Waiting Problem
Price starts moving. Option premium jumps.
You think:
“I am missing it.”
So you chase.
Now:
• Entry is worse
• Stop becomes wider
• R:R deteriorates
• Premium may already be extended
Missing a trade can be frustrating. But forcing a poor trade costs real capital.
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📊 A Missed Trade Is Not Always a Mistake
Suppose your rules require a retest. Price breaks out and runs without retesting. You miss the trade. That does not automatically mean you did something wrong.
If your condition never appeared:
**No Trade = Correct Execution**
You do not need every market move.
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📊 Boredom Can Create Fake Opportunities
The market does not guarantee a trade because you opened the chart.
Some sessions may give: 3 trades.
Some may give: 1 trade.
Some may give: 0 trades.
Zero trades can still be a professionally executed day if no valid setup appeared.
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📊 Option Traders Need Extra Patience
Fast premium movement creates urgency. But a CE or PE moving quickly does not automatically make it a good entry.
Check:
• Underlying confirmation
• Premium structure
• Liquidity
• Entry extension
• Defined risk
A fast option can still be a poor trade.
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📊 Define Exactly What You Are Waiting For
Do not simply: “Wait for confirmation.”
Define confirmation.
Example:
Bullish breakout:
✅ Price above VWAP
✅ Close above resistance
✅ Volume expansion
✅ Retest holds
✅ Acceptable R:R
Now patience becomes rule-based.
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📊 Ask One Powerful Question
Before entering:
“Is the setup actually ready—or am I simply tired of waiting?”
If the market has not confirmed your conditions: WAIT.
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📊 Simple Formula
Market Movement + Impatience + FOMO
= Premature Trade
But:
Context + Patience + Confirmation + Defined Risk = Qualified Trade
And:
No Valid Setup = No Trade
---------------------------------
📊 Finally, the important point to note is:
Waiting is not inactivity. Waiting is part of execution.
Do not ask only:
“Can I trade this?”
Ask:
“Has this setup earned the right to risk my capital?”
You do not need every move. You need the moves that fit your process.
Wait for the setup.
Wait for the trigger.
Then execute.
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Educational Purpose Only. You always need to learn first before trading with real money, so Educate yourself completely before you start because half knowledge is more dangerous than zero knowledge.
XAUUSD | 4H BULLISH PROJECTION
Gold recovered above 4,390 support after a breakdown—suggesting a possible bear trap. Price is now testing the descending trendline.
🔍 Confirmation needed: A 4H breakout above 4,410–4,417, followed by a successful retest.
📍 Projected retest zone: 4,410–4,417
🎯 Resistance 1: 4,426
🎯 Resistance 2: 4,444–4,445
🎯 Resistance 3: 4,474–4,475
❌ Invalidation area: Below 4,390
⚠️ Breakout remains unconfirmed. Trendline rejection could weaken the recovery; losing 4,390 could expose 4,360–4,340 again.
TAMIL TRADING EDUCATION
Educational only | Not SEBI registered | No buy/sell recommendation | Trading carries risk. Trade wisely.
◈ XAUUSD — Elliott Wave Recovery Above 4,350 ◈ XAUUSD — Elliott Wave Recovery Above 4,350
Gold is recovering again after bouncing from the one-week low area near 4,350. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be building a short-term bullish Elliott Wave structure, but buyers still need confirmation because price remains inside a larger descending channel.
The key idea is simple: geopolitical tension can continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, but the technical structure still needs a clean break above short-term resistance before the bullish wave becomes stronger.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,394, after reacting from the lower support area near 4,350–4,360. This reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend the correction low.
The current price is sitting near a short-term decision zone around 4,385–4,405. If gold holds above this area, the next bullish push may target 4,440–4,450 first, then the stronger resistance zone near 4,465–4,480.
The larger structure is still inside a descending channel, so the 4,465–4,480 area is very important. A clean breakout above this zone would support a stronger recovery toward 4,520–4,540.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,394
◌ Short-term buy zone: 4,385–4,405
◌ Key support: 4,350–4,360
◌ Deeper support: 4,320–4,330
◌ First resistance: 4,440–4,450
◌ Main breakout zone: 4,465–4,480
◌ Next upside target: 4,520–4,540
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a possible bullish recovery after the previous bearish wave completed near 4,280.
Wave (1) may have formed from the lower support area.
Wave (2) corrected back toward 4,350–4,360 and found buyers.
If this low holds, wave (3) may push toward 4,440–4,450.
Wave (4) may create a short pullback near the current structure.
Wave (5) could extend toward 4,465–4,480, where the descending channel resistance is waiting.
If gold breaks above 4,480, the recovery structure becomes stronger and price may continue toward 4,520–4,540.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bullish scenario:
Entry: Buy around 4,385–4,405 if price gives bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,350
Take Profit 1: 4,440–4,450
Take Profit 2: 4,465–4,480
Take Profit 3: 4,520–4,540
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks below 4,350, the bullish wave setup becomes weaker. In that case, price may retest 4,320–4,330 before buyers try to rebuild the structure.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold loses 4,350 and fails to reclaim the current buy zone. A deeper break below 4,320 would shift short-term pressure back to the downside.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view is cautiously bullish while gold holds above 4,350–4,360. The geopolitical background may continue to support gold, but the chart still needs confirmation above 4,440 and 4,480.
If buyers defend the current zone, gold may continue toward 4,465–4,480, then possibly 4,520–4,540.
Do you think gold will break the channel resistance, or retest 4,350 once more before the next rally?
XAUUSD: 4,404 Decides the Recovery Trap XAUUSD: 4,404 Decides the Recovery Trap
Market Context
Gold is trying to recover from the one-week low near 4,350, but the move is still not strong enough to confirm a full bullish reversal.
The US Dollar is under pressure as demand for the Japanese Yen returns, giving gold some short-term breathing room. At the same time, geopolitical risks around Iran can still support safe-haven demand.
But there is one problem: gold is still struggling below the 21-day SMA area, while the current rebound is only holding near the 50-day SMA. That means buyers are reacting, but they have not taken control yet.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,401, right inside the first decision zone at 4,395 - 4,410.
The short-term structure still leans bearish because the previous selloff created a strong downside move, and the current recovery is only a retracement back into resistance.
The key intraday level is 4,404. If price accepts above this level and holds the 4,395 - 4,410 zone, gold may extend the recovery toward 4,430 - 4,445.
However, 4,430 - 4,445 is the main resistance zone. This is where liquidity sits above the recent structure, and a sweep into this area may trigger seller reaction again.
If gold fails below 4,404, the rebound becomes weaker. A rejection here could send price back toward 4,385, then 4,380, and potentially the weak low around 4,340.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,401
Key Level: 4,404
First Decision Zone: 4,395 - 4,410
Short-term Support: 4,385 - 4,390
Downside Reaction Zone: 4,380
Weak Low: 4,340
Main Resistance: 4,430 - 4,445
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,445
Bearish Continuation: Below 4,385
Trading Plan
Primary Buy Reaction
Entry: 4,395 - 4,410 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,380
TP: 4,430 / 4,445 / 4,460
Condition: Price must hold above 4,404 and show acceptance inside the decision zone. If buyers defend this area, gold can extend the corrective recovery toward the upper resistance.
Primary Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,430 - 4,445 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,465
TP: 4,410 / 4,385 / 4,340
Condition: If gold sweeps liquidity into resistance and fails to continue higher, sellers may use this zone to trap late buyers and push price lower again.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,385 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,410
TP: 4,380 / 4,365 / 4,340
Condition: Gold loses the short-term support and fails to reclaim it. This would confirm that the recovery has faded and sellers are back in control.
Bullish Continuation Scenario
Entry: Above 4,445 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,410
TP: 4,460 / 4,472 / 4,490
Condition: Buyers must break through the resistance zone with strength. Only then does the short-term bearish structure begin to weaken.
Overall Bias
Gold is recovering, but the recovery is still fragile.
Above 4,404, buyers have a chance to push price toward 4,430 - 4,445. But below that resistance zone, sellers still have room to create another rejection.
If 4,385 breaks, the market may rotate back toward 4,340, where the weak low sits.
Best approach: do not chase the rebound. Wait for price to either hold 4,404 clearly or sweep into 4,430 - 4,445 and show rejection.
Will gold turn this rebound into a real breakout, or will 4,445 become the next trap for buyers?
NIFTY- Positional/swing trade levels :- September 2026If NIFTY sustain above 24080 then 24176 above this bullish then 23293 above this more bullish 24445 above this more bullish.
If NIFTY sustain below 24089 then below this bearish then 23548 to 23491 below this more bearish then 23247 then 23089 to 22956 last hope.
Considered buffer points in above levels
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
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Gold Price Analysis — Can Buyers Push XAUUSD Toward 4,700?I still see XAUUSD trading within a broader bullish structure. Despite the recent pullback, gold continues to hold key support, while safe-haven demand is giving buyers an additional advantage.
From the macro side, I see a weaker U.S. dollar and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the main factors supporting gold right now. Oil prices near $100 are keeping inflation concerns alive and could make the Fed’s next move more complicated. The backdrop is mixed, but for now, I believe dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty are helping gold stay resilient.
Looking at the H8 chart, I can see XAUUSD continuing to respect its ascending price channel. The latest pullback has brought price closer to the lower boundary, where the 4,280–4,330 demand zone becomes especially important. Buyers have reacted strongly from this trendline before, so I am watching this area closely for another bullish response.
As long as XAUUSD stays above 4,280–4,330, my bias remains bullish. I am looking for a recovery toward 4,490 first. If buyers can break and hold above this level, I believe the next major area to watch will be 4,700–4,780.
For me, the key is simple: as long as the channel support holds, I still see the pullback as an opportunity for buyers rather than the end of the bullish trend.
XAUUSD 1H SELL PROJECTION
Gold is currently showing strong seller dominance after rejecting the 4,378 to 4,383 resistance area. Price has also reacted from the Fair Value Gap sell zone and moved back below the 4,375 level.
Our potential sell-entry zone is between 4,373 and 4,375, with the stop loss placed above the major resistance at 4,386.40.
The first take-profit level is 4,368. If price gives a strong one-hour candle close below this level, the selling pressure may continue toward the second target at 4,354. The final downside target is around 4,341.
This sell projection remains valid while price stays below 4,386.40. A strong one-hour candle close above this level will invalidate the bearish setup.
Educational purpose only. This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Trading carries risk. Trade wisely.
XAUUSD Higher Lows Signal More UpsideGold has made a convincing bullish reversal. Instead of extending lower, price has been building a series of higher lows while the rising trendline continues to attract buyers.
The latest pullback gives us another useful clue. Selling pressure faded near the trendline, the bearish candles became smaller, and buyers stepped in before sellers could gain real momentum.
That keeps my bias bullish. Price is now moving back toward resistance, and a clean breakout could open the way toward 4,515.
The idea becomes invalid if XAUUSD loses the rising trendline and breaks below the most recent higher low.






















