Long
XAUUSD — Medium-Term Buy Zone, Waiting For Liquidity Sweep
Gold is trading around $4,118 after rejecting from the short-term OB sell entry zone near $4,185–$4,198. Price has pulled back sharply, but the bigger focus is now shifting to the lower liquidity area.
From an SMC perspective, gold is moving toward a major demand zone where sell-side liquidity and the OB buy zone are sitting together. This area around $4,052–$4,085 is important because it was the origin of the previous bullish reaction and also sits above the strong low near $4,022.
The main plan is not to chase the current move. I prefer to wait for gold to sweep liquidity below $4,052, tap the OB buy zone, then look for bullish confirmation. If buyers defend this zone, gold can build a medium-term recovery back toward $4,198, $4,222, and higher FVG liquidity.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold sweeps sell-side liquidity near $4,052 and reacts from the OB buy zone with bullish MSS / CHOCH confirmation.
Entry: $4,052–$4,085
SL: below $4,020
TP1: $4,118
TP2: $4,198
TP3: $4,222
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold holds the OB buy zone and breaks back above $4,198, wait for a retest before looking for continuation.
Entry: $4,185–$4,198 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,150
TP1: $4,222
TP2: $4,260
TP3: $4,285–$4,300
Sell setup
Condition:
Selling is not the priority. A sell setup is only valid if gold rejects again from $4,185–$4,198 and fails to reclaim the buy-side liquidity area.
Entry: $4,185–$4,198 after rejection
SL: above $4,222
TP1: $4,118
TP2: $4,085
TP3: $4,052
Key levels
Current price area: $4,118
OB buy zone: $4,052–$4,085
Strong low: $4,022
OB sell entry: $4,185–$4,198
Week high: $4,222
Upper FVG target: $4,260–$4,300
Bullish invalidation: clean 2H close below $4,020
My current view is that gold may create a stronger medium-term buy opportunity if price returns into the major OB and liquidity zone. The best Prime Gold plan is to wait for liquidity to be taken first, then enter only after bullish structure confirms.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long
XAUUSD — EMA Downtrend Holds, Sell Position Remains Active
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts are rejected from the value sell zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is still pointing lower, showing that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Price recently tested the value range around 4,210 - 4,225 but failed to break higher. This rejection shows that buyers are still weak, while sellers continue to defend the EMA downtrend.
The order sell zone around 4,185 - 4,204 has also reacted well. After touching this area, price rejected and moved lower again, confirming that the sell zone is still valid.
As long as gold stays below 4,204 - 4,225, the bearish continuation setup remains active. The main downside target is the Fibonacci and liquidity convergence zone around 4,066.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,177
Order sell zone: 4,185 - 4,204
Value range resistance: 4,210 - 4,225
EMA resistance area: 4,234 - 4,270
Short-term support: 4,140 - 4,120
Fibonacci liquidity target: 4,066 - 4,064
Invalidation area: above 4,225
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,185 - 4,204
Stop Loss: 4,225
Take Profit 1: 4,140
Take Profit 2: 4,100
Take Profit 3: 4,066 - 4,064
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to continue focusing on sell positions while price stays below the value range and EMA resistance.
The sell zone has already reacted well, showing rejection from 4,185 - 4,204. If price retests this area and forms another bearish rejection, the sell continuation setup remains valid.
A break below 4,140 would strengthen bearish momentum and open the way toward 4,100, then the Fibonacci liquidity target around 4,066 - 4,064.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to stay below 4,204.
Look for bearish rejection on any retest.
A break below 4,140 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,225, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, EMA 200, and the value range resistance. The sell zone has already rejected price, so the preferred plan is to continue focusing on bearish continuation toward 4,140, 4,100, and 4,066.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for another retest of the order sell zone?
Short 
Long
Long
Long
Short
Long
Long
Long 
NIFTY 50 — INTRADAY PLAN | 23 JUNE 2026📊 Boost Target 25 for Next Post.
⏰ 15 Min Chart | 🏛 NSE | 📍 Ref Price : 24,086.85
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💬 "Plan the trade. Trade the plan. Protect the capital."
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🗝 KEY LEVELS
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🔴 Upper Resistance ➤ 24,366
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance➤ 24,288
🔴 Opening Resistance ➤ 24,217
🟡 No Trade Zone (NTZ) ➤ 24,067 – 24,127
🟢 Last Intraday Support ➤ 23,958
🟢 Buyer's Support Zone ➤ 23,840 – 23,868
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 GAP UP — 100+ POINTS | Open Above 24,186
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Price opens near or above Opening Resistance (24,217).
First instinct will be to BUY — resist it. Gap ups into
resistance are fade candidates until proven otherwise.
✅ BULLISH — If 15-min candle CLOSES above 24,217
◉ Entry : Above breakout candle high
◉ Target 1 : 24,288 ← Book 50–60% here
◉ Target 2 : 24,366 ← Trail SL aggressively
◉ Stop Loss : 24,150
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE
✅ BEARISH — Rejection candle at 24,217–24,288
◉ Entry : Below rejection candle low
◉ Target 1 : 24,127 (NTZ Upper Band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,067 (NTZ Lower Band)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,240
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE
⚡ Key Reminder : Wait for the full first 15-min candle.
Never buy blindly into resistance on a gap up open.
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🟡 FLAT OPEN — ±50 to 100 Points | 23,986–24,186
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Price opens inside or near the NTZ (24,067–24,127).
This is the most tradeable scenario — levels are intact
and price action is clean. The NTZ resolves the direction.
⛔ INSIDE NTZ → NO TRADE. Watch. Set alerts. Be patient.
✅ BULLISH — 15-min close above 24,127
◉ Entry : Above breakout candle high
◉ Target 1 : 24,217 ← Book partial here
◉ Target 2 : 24,288
◉ Stop Loss : 24,085
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | Bull Call Spread
✅ BEARISH — 15-min close below 24,067
◉ Entry : Below breakdown candle low
◉ Target 1 : 23,958 (Last Intraday Support)
◉ Target 2 : 23,868 (Buyer's Zone)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,110
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE
✅ BOUNCE SETUP — If price dips to 23,958
◉ Wait for hammer / engulfing candle + volume spike
◉ Entry : Above reversal candle high
◉ Target : 24,067 → 24,127 | SL : Below 23,930
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔴 GAP DOWN — 100+ POINTS | Open Below 23,986
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Price opens near or below Last Intraday Support (23,958).
Golden Rule : Do not panic-sell at the open. Do not
buy without confirmation. Let the first candle form first.
✅ BOUNCE — If 23,958 holds (2 bullish candles)
◉ Entry : Above 2nd confirmation candle high
◉ Target 1 : 24,067
◉ Target 2 : 24,127
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,925 (strict — no averaging)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE
✅ BREAKDOWN — If 23,958 fails (close below 23,940)
◉ Entry : Below breakdown candle low
◉ Target 1 : 23,868 (Buyer's Zone)
◉ Target 2 : 23,840
◉ Stop Loss : 23,975
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE
✅ IF OPENS AT BUYER'S ZONE 23,840–23,868
◉ High-value demand zone — expect a bounce attempt
◉ Wait for hammer / doji + volume confirmation
◉ Entry : Above confirmation candle high
◉ Target : 23,958 → 24,067 | SL : Below 23,815
◉ ⚠ If zone breaks → next support 23,700–23,628
⚡ Key Reminder : The lower the open, the higher the
bounce probability — IF a key zone is holding. Let
price show you the base before entering longs.
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🛡 OPTIONS RISK MANAGEMENT — QUICK RULES
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◉ Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade. No exceptions.
◉ Avoid far OTM options — cheap premium = cheap reason.
◉ Never trade the first 5 minutes (9:15–9:20 AM IST).
◉ Book 50% at Target 1. Trail stop on the rest.
◉ Set a daily max loss limit — hit it, stop for the day.
◉ Never average down on a losing options position.
◉ On gap days, cut your position size by 50%.
◉ If your setup didn't trigger → there is NO trade today.
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📝 SUMMARY
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🟢 Bullish above 24,127 → 24,217 → 24,288 → 24,366
🔴 Bearish below 24,067 → 23,958 → 23,840–23,868
⛔ Inside 24,067–24,127 → No Trade | Wait for breakout
The map is drawn. The levels are clear. Your only job
is to wait for the market to confirm direction — then
execute with discipline, not emotion. 🎯
🧠 "The best trade you ever make is the bad one you avoided."
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⚠ DISCLAIMER
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For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst.
No buy/sell recommendation is intended or implied.
Please consult your SEBI-registered advisor before
making any trading or investment decisions.
Trade at your own risk. Protect your capital. 🙏
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Long
From 6000 Days of Consolidation to a 1000 Day Base Above ItThe Long Sideways Build
Marked by the pink line, this stock spent roughly 5815 days moving sideways. Volume during this stretch stayed normal, nothing dramatic, nothing that screamed accumulation or distribution. Just a long, grinding range. But within that range, a subtle detail stood out: every time price hit resistance and pulled back, the low it formed was slightly higher than the previous one. Touch after touch, the floor kept rising while the ceiling stayed put. That's the classic shape of an ascending triangle, though given the sheer duration here, it's more fitting to call it an ascending triangle, sideways-type pattern.
The Breakout — And the Trap That Followed
After roughly 6000 days of this consolidation, price finally broke the horizontal resistance at the top of the structure. Volume on that breakout was notably high, exactly what you'd expect from a level that had capped price for years finally giving way. But it wasn't a clean move. The first breakout attempt failed, pulling back below the level and likely shaking out early breakout traders. Price then pushed higher again, this time taking out the stop-losses of those who had tried to trade the level previously, before running further up and then pulling back hard once more.
This is precisely the kind of area that's difficult to trade in real time, the breakout zone itself was messy, volatile, and unforgiving for anyone trying to enter right at the level.
The Base Above the Base
\What followed is the more interesting part. Above this 6000-day ascending triangle, price carved out another consolidation, this time a tighter, roughly 900-day base. This is the flip in action: the old resistance zone, once broken, became the floor for this new base. And once again, volume in this 900-day zone stood out, reinforcing that real activity was happening at this level, not just idle drift.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past price structures do not guarantee future outcomes. Please conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 
Long
Short 
Long
Strong Selling Zone: ₹1,020 – ₹1,050SBIN is currently trading near a key resistance zone around ₹1,020–₹1,030, where strong selling pressure has previously entered the market. Price has rallied sharply from lower levels and is now approaching an important supply area.
Key Levels
🔴 Strong Selling Zone: ₹1,020 – ₹1,050
Major resistance area.
High probability of fresh selling if price enters this zone.
Traders should watch for bearish rejection candles or volume spikes.
🟠 Current Resistance Zone: ₹995 – ₹1,010
Price is consolidating near this level.
Failure to break and sustain above this zone may trigger a downward move.
🟢 Target 1: ₹990 – ₹975
First support area and initial downside target.
Partial profit booking zone for short positions.
🟢 Target 2 (Strong Support): ₹940 – ₹920
Strong demand zone.
Expected to provide significant support if selling intensifies.
Trading Outlook
As long as price remains below the ₹1,020–₹1,050 supply zone, the bias remains bearish to neutral.
A rejection from the current resistance area could lead to a decline toward ₹990–₹975, followed by ₹940–₹920.
A strong breakout and close above ₹1,050 would invalidate the bearish setup and may lead to further upside.
Conclusion:
SBIN is trading near a critical resistance area. The chart suggests a higher probability of a pullback from the current levels, with downside targets around ₹990–₹975 and ₹940–₹920, while ₹1,020–₹1,050 remains the key selling zone to monitor. 
Short
NIFTY ANALYSIS | TUESDAY, 23 JUNE 2026 |4H →1H →15-MIN→5-MIN TF# 📊 NIFTY ANALYSIS | TUESDAY, 23 JUNE 2026 | 4H → 1H → 15-MIN → 5-MIN TF 🔥
The close was **24,102.90**. Tomorrow is expiry-adjacent, so expect premiums to evaporate with the enthusiasm of a politician’s promise. Trade confirmation, not prediction.
## 🚨 FINAL VERDICT
### Market Bias
🟡 **Neutral to mildly bullish above 24,073.15**
🔴 **Bearish only below 24,073.15 on sustained acceptance**
NIFTY closed at **24,102.90**, up **89.80 points (+0.37%)**. It held above the day’s opening zone after dipping to **24,073.15**, but failed to close near the day high of **24,168.05**. This indicates buyers are still active, though supply remains visible near **24,150 to 24,170**.
### Institutional Summary
* **Market Regime:** 🟡 Range-bound with bullish structure
* **Control:** 🟢 Buyers above **24,073.15**
* **Previous session OHLC:** Open **24,106.60** | High **24,168.05** | Low **24,073.15** | Close **24,102.90**
* **Immediate resistance:** **24,124.10**, then **24,146.25**, then **24,168.05**
* **Immediate support:** **24,095.65**, then **24,084.60**, then **24,073.15**
* **Trader action:** Wait for a 15-minute close outside the trigger range. Inside it, the market is just collecting brokerage from impatient people.
### Probability Matrix
* 🟢 **Bullish: 40%**
* 🟡 **Range-bound: 35%**
* 🔴 **Bearish: 25%**
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# 🟢 HIGH-PROBABILITY CE TRADE
## CE Setup: Breakout Above Day-High Supply
**Probability:** 40%
**Strategy:** Buy CE only after price proves it can hold above the upper range.
* **Entry trigger:** 15-minute close above **24,124.10**
* **Confirmation:** 5-minute retest must hold above **24,110**
* **Stop loss:** **24,084.60**
* **Target 1:** **24,146.25**
* **Target 2:** **24,168.05**
* **Target 3:** **24,184.60**
* **Invalidation:** 15-minute close back below **24,095.65**
### Fibonacci Confluence
Using 22 June range: High **24,168.05** and Low **24,073.15**
* **23.6%:** **24,095.55**
* **38.2%:** **24,109.40**
* **50.0%:** **24,120.60**
* **61.8%:** **24,131.80**
* **78.6%:** **24,147.75**
### Institutional Logic
A sustained move above **24,124.10** means price has reclaimed the 50% retracement area and is attempting to absorb supply near the upper half of the previous day’s range. The next upside magnets are **24,146.25**, **24,168.05**, and then the extension zone near **24,184.60**.
Do not buy CE merely because NIFTY is green. Green candles are not a personality test.
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# 🔴 HIGH-PROBABILITY PE TRADE
## PE Setup: Breakdown Below Fib Support
**Probability:** 25%
**Strategy:** Buy PE only after a confirmed breakdown of the day-low support zone.
* **Entry trigger:** 15-minute close below **24,073.15**
* **Confirmation:** 5-minute failed retest below **24,084.60**
* **Stop loss:** **24,109.40**
* **Target 1:** **24,050**
* **Target 2:** **24,025**
* **Target 3:** **24,000**
* **Invalidation:** Sustained 15-minute reclaim above **24,095.55**
### Confirmation Required
✔ 5-minute lower-high formation
✔ Rejection from VWAP or 20 EMA
✔ Breakdown candle with volume expansion
✔ RSI below 45
✔ No immediate reclaim of **24,073.15**
### Institutional Logic
The low at **24,073.15** is the key support from 22 June. A sustained break below it shows that buyers could not defend the lower boundary of the session range. This can pull NIFTY toward the psychological **24,000** zone, where expiry-related option positioning may increase volatility.
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# 📊 OPTION-CHAIN VIEW
## ATM Strike: **24,100**
The 23 June expiry places the immediate battlefield around **24,000 to 24,100**.
### Key Option Zones
* **Call-side supply zone:** **24,150 to 24,200**
* **Put-side support zone:** **24,000**
* **Pivot / pinning zone:** **24,100**
* **Upside breakout zone:** Above **24,124 to 24,150**
* **Downside acceleration zone:** Below **24,073**, especially below **24,000**
### Expiry Risk
Inside **24,073 to 24,124**, both CE and PE buyers may lose premium through time decay and whipsaws. Expiry does not reward bravery. It rewards patience, occasionally by accident.
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# 📈 4H TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
* **Trend:** Broader recovery structure remains intact.
* **Structure:** Higher lows are visible from the June base near **23,100 to 23,200**.
* **EMA position:** Price remains above the broader moving-average support visible near the **23,900** area.
* **Momentum:** Positive but slowing near **24,150 to 24,200** supply.
* **Interpretation:** The broader trend is constructive, but immediate upside needs acceptance above **24,168.05**.
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# 📉 1H TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
* **Structure:** Consolidation after a strong recovery from the June lows.
* **Resistance:** **24,124 → 24,168 → 24,200**
* **Support:** **24,073 → 24,000 → 23,900**
* **Momentum:** Neutral to mildly bullish while above **24,073.15**.
* **Interpretation:** A one-hour close above **24,168** can restart the bullish leg. A close below **24,073** shifts the setup toward downside mean reversion.
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# ⏱️ 15-MINUTE TRADE FRAMEWORK
## 🟢 Immediate Resistance
1. **24,109.40**
2. **24,120.60**
3. **24,131.80**
4. **24,147.75**
5. **24,168.05**
## 🔴 Immediate Support
1. **24,095.55**
2. **24,084.60**
3. **24,073.15**
4. **24,050**
5. **24,000**
## Intraday Trigger Zones
* **Bullish trigger:** 15-minute close above **24,124.10**
* **Bearish trigger:** 15-minute close below **24,073.15**
* **No-trade zone:** **24,073.15 to 24,124.10**
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# ⚡ 5-MINUTE EXECUTION PLAN
## For CE Buyers
* Wait for a 15-minute breakout above **24,124.10**
* Enter only after a 5-minute retest holds above **24,110**
* Book partial profit near **24,146**
* Trail remaining quantity toward **24,168**
* Avoid CE if breakout volume is weak or RSI immediately slips below 55
## For PE Buyers
* Wait for a 15-minute breakdown below **24,073.15**
* Enter only after a failed retest of **24,084.60**
* Book partial profit near **24,050**
* Trail remaining quantity toward **24,000**
* Avoid PE if price rapidly reclaims **24,095.55**
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
# 🧠 MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
**Retail behaviour:** Likely to chase CE above 24,100 because the index closed green, then panic if it slips back into the range.
**Institutional behaviour:** Likely to test both sides of the **24,100 ATM zone** before committing. Watch whether price accepts above **24,124** or loses **24,073**.
**Current edge:** 🟢 Buyers have the edge above **24,073.15**. Sellers take control only after a confirmed breakdown below it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
# 📌 TRADING DAY SCENARIOS
## Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
**Probability:** 40%
**Trigger:** 15-minute close above **24,124.10**
**Targets:** **24,146.25 → 24,168.05 → 24,184.60**
## Scenario 2: Expiry-Style Range
**Probability:** 35%
**Trigger:** Price remains between **24,073.15 and 24,124.10**
**Action:** Avoid directional option buying. The range is too narrow for heroic decisions.
## Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown
**Probability:** 25%
**Trigger:** 15-minute close below **24,073.15**
**Targets:** **24,050 → 24,025 → 24,000**
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# 🚫 INVALIDATION LEVELS
* **Bullish thesis invalid below:** **24,073.15** on sustained 15-minute acceptance
* **Bearish thesis invalid above:** **24,124.10** on sustained 15-minute acceptance
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# 🔥 TRADER NOTE
For 23 June, the decisive range is:
## **24,073.15 to 24,124.10**
Trade only after acceptance outside this range. Above **24,124**, CE momentum can expand toward **24,168**. Below **24,073**, PE momentum can target **24,000**.
Keep position size controlled, especially with expiry nearby. A correct market view with oversized quantity is still a very efficient way to donate money to the market.
*Educational analysis only, not financial advice.*
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Long 
EURUSD — Corrective Bounce Before Deeper Bearish Continuation
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the recovery looks corrective, not a confirmed bullish reversal. If price fails at the value sell zone, sellers may continue to control the next move.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, EURUSD is still trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is above price, showing that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Price is currently around 1.1445 after reacting from the lower buy zone near 1.1436 - 1.1445. This area may support one more corrective bounce before the next bearish leg.
The key sell zone is around 1.1491 - 1.1509. This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, previous structure, and value range resistance. If EURUSD reaches this area and rejects, the bearish continuation setup becomes cleaner.
Below current price, the main downside target is around 1.1383 - 1.1384. This is the target zone marked on the chart and may become the next liquidity objective if sellers regain control.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1445
Buy reaction zone: 1.1436 - 1.1445
Sell value range: 1.1491 - 1.1509
Fibonacci 0.618 sell zone: 1.1491 - 1.1509
EMA resistance area: 1.1498 - 1.1533
Short-term invalidation: above 1.1533
Main downside target: 1.1383 - 1.1384
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1491 - 1.1509
Stop Loss: 1.1533
Take Profit 1: 1.1445
Take Profit 2: 1.1416
Take Profit 3: 1.1383 - 1.1384
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to create one more corrective bounce into the 1.1491 - 1.1509 value range. This area is the main Fibonacci and resistance zone on the chart.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 1.1436, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside target would be 1.1416, followed by the main target around 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1436 - 1.1445
Stop Loss: 1.1416
Take Profit 1: 1.1481
Take Profit 2: 1.1491
Take Profit 3: 1.1509
Buy Condition
This is only a short-term corrective bounce setup, not the main trend view. A buy setup is valid only if EURUSD holds the 1.1436 - 1.1445 buy zone and forms clear bullish rejection.
If price fails to hold this zone, the bounce scenario is invalid and sellers may push directly toward 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to reach the value sell zone.
Look for bearish rejection around 1.1491 - 1.1509.
A break below 1.1436 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1533, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while EURUSD stays below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. Price may create one more corrective bounce first, but the preferred plan is to look for sell confirmation from 1.1491 - 1.1509 toward 1.1416 and 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Do you share the same view that EURUSD may bounce first before a deeper drop, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the value sell zone?
XAUUSD: Final Elliott Wave 5 ActiveGold is currently moving inside what appears to be the final Elliott wave 5 structure after the recent rejection from the liquidity imbalance zone. From Kelly’s view, the market is still showing downside pressure, but this may be the last bearish leg before a larger corrective recovery begins.
The key point is simple: wave 5 remains valid while price stays below the highest resistance formed at today’s open.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold rejecting from the upper imbalance area and then moving lower through a clear bearish sequence. Price is now trading around 4,195, inside a short-term corrective channel, while the market continues to respect the descending trendline pressure.
The 4,220 area is acting as the nearest resistance and also the zone where wave 5 begins on the chart. If sellers keep defending this area, gold may continue lower towards the Elliott wave end zone near 4,020–4,040.
However, if price breaks above the highest resistance from today’s open, the wave 5 bearish setup would lose quality and the market may need a new interpretation.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,220: wave 5 beginning zone and near-term resistance
◌ 4,195: current reaction area
◌ 4,180: short-term support inside the channel
◌ 4,121: first downside confirmation level
◌ 4,071: deeper reaction support
◌ 4,020–4,040: Elliott wave end zone
◌ Above today’s opening resistance: area where the bearish wave 5 setup fails
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be completing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started after the rejection from the liquidity imbalance zone.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed to reclaim the previous structure.
Wave 3 pushed price sharply lower into the 4,121 region.
Wave 4 developed as a small corrective channel.
Wave 5 may now be preparing to extend lower towards the Elliott wave end zone.
If this count is correct, the next move may still be a final downside sweep before the structure becomes more attractive for a larger corrective rebound.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to stay below the opening resistance and confirm bearish continuation.
Sell reaction zone: 4,195–4,220 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above the highest resistance from today’s open
Take profit 1: 4,121
Take profit 2: 4,071
Take profit 3: 4,020–4,040
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above today’s opening resistance and holds with strength, the final wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the bearish count should be reassessed before looking for continuation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a final-wave structure, not a fresh sell at any price. The downside path is still active, but wave 5 is already late in the sequence, so confirmation matters.
If gold stays below the opening resistance, the market may complete one more downside leg towards the Elliott wave end zone.
Gold is still under pressure.
But if this is truly the final wave 5, the next major reaction may come after the final sweep is complete.
Share your view below. Short 
Long
Short 
Long
XAUUSD – Gold Recovers Slightly, But Bearish Channel Still XAUUSD – Gold Recovers Slightly, But Bearish Channel Still Controls Price
Gold is showing a small recovery at the beginning of the new week after the recent three-day decline. However, on the H1 chart, price is still moving inside a clear descending channel and remains below the SMA 200, which means the short-term structure has not confirmed a bullish reversal yet.
The current price is trading around 4,176, while the nearest resistance area sits around 4,220 – 4,238. As long as gold stays below this zone, sellers may continue to control the intraday structure.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term support as oil prices ease and geopolitical tensions show signs of cooling after new peace-related headlines.
However, the recovery is still limited. The U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations remain important drivers, so the technical structure should be followed carefully before confirming any stronger upside move.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has failed to hold the previous value area and is now trading inside a descending channel. The recent recovery attempt is still weak because price has not reclaimed the SMA 200 or the broken resistance zone.
The area around 4,220 – 4,238 is important because it contains the broken VL zone and the SMA 200. If price retests this area and rejects, it may create a clean sell continuation setup.
The current short-term support is around 4,137 – 4,121. If gold breaks below this area, sellers may push price toward the accumulation zone around 4,090 – 4,110.
Below that, the stronger buy reaction zones are around 4,053 and 4,023. These areas may create short-term bounces, but the main trend remains bearish while price stays inside the descending channel.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price area: 4,176
SMA 200 resistance: 4,238
Broken VL / resistance zone: 4,220 – 4,280
Strong support / sell continuation level: 4,137
Strong liquidity: 4,121
Accumulation zone: 4,090 – 4,110
Strong support – buy reaction: 4,053
Strong liquidity – buy reaction: 4,023
Descending channel resistance: 4,200 – 4,238
Invalidation area for sell view: Above 4,238 – 4,280
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario – Priority H1 View
If gold retests the 4,200 – 4,238 resistance area and shows rejection, I will watch for a sell continuation setup inside the descending channel.
Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,238
Entry Condition: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from resistance.
Stop Loss: Above 4,238 or above the nearest swing high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,137
TP2: 4,121
TP3: 4,053 – 4,023
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,121 with strong momentum, sellers may continue directly toward the lower buy reaction zones.
Sell Condition: Wait for a clean break below 4,121, then watch for retest and bearish rejection.
Target: 4,053 – 4,023
Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Buy is not the priority view while gold remains inside the descending channel. However, if price sweeps 4,053 – 4,023 and shows strong bullish reaction, a short-term bounce may appear.
Buy Zone: 4,053 – 4,023
Entry Condition: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,121
TP2: 4,137
TP3: 4,200
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,023, the buy reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is still bearish on H1. Although price is recovering slightly at the beginning of the week, the chart shows that gold remains below the SMA 200 and inside the descending channel.
The cleaner plan is to wait for price to retest resistance before looking for sell confirmation. The 4,200 – 4,238 area is the key zone where sellers may return. If this zone rejects, gold may continue lower toward 4,137, 4,121 and possibly the 4,053 – 4,023 buy reaction area.
Overall, gold is trying to stabilize, but the structure still favours sellers unless price breaks and holds above the SMA 200 and the broken VL zone.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,200 – 4,238, or will buyers manage to break the descending channel first?
Short 
