Education
HAL: The Quiet Consolidation Developing on the Higher TimeframesThe Monthly Perspective
The long-term monthly chart for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) shows a clear macro structure. Following a strong, multi-year upward trend—identified as a nested wave 3—the price entered a broad sideways consolidation phase. This multi-year pause takes the shape of a classic contracting triangle, which typically serves as a major wave 4 correction.
The Weekly Structure and Volume
Looking closer at the weekly timeframe, the price action is steadily compressing between two converging trendlines. This compression is strongly validated by the volume profile. Over the course of this multi-month consolidation, trading volume has steadily decreased. This indicates that both buying and selling pressures are diminishing as the pattern nears its apex.
Key Levels and Invalidation
Because this analysis relies strictly on higher timeframes, the focus remains entirely on the major trendlines:
Support Respect: A steady consolidation that holds above the lower weekly trendline support keeps this primary wave count intact.
Pattern Invalidation: A decisive, high-volume close significantly below the lower trendline support on the weekly or monthly chart completely invalidates this triangle structure. If this occurs, it indicates that the market is entering a deeper or more complex macro correction instead.
Shifting Perspectives
In an earlier post , I looked at this structure as a possible WXY double correction. However, looking closely at the higher timeframes, this contracting triangle setup might make more sense. Let's see how the price action unfolds as the pattern develops.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
Long
Long
NIACL LONGThe Elliott Wave Theory's description of the structure and pattern of price movements in financial markets is known as the Elliott Wave Structure.
The Elliott Wave analysis shows that the stock has completed waves (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv), represented as blue numbers on the daily chart. Wave (v) appears to be underway at this time.
Wave (iv), also known as the corrective wave, unfolded in an a-b-c pattern, as indicated in red.
Wave c of wave (iv) is unfolding in five waves, as illustrated in the black circle on the daily time frame. It appears that wave 5 in the black circle is still unfolding.
It is a buying opportunity on the downturn (dip).
Check the divergence with RSI in the 1-hour chart; the price will make a lower low, and the RSI will make a higher high.
It is anticipated that wave (v) will have about five subdivisions shown in red colour.
Wave levels are shown on the chart.
Level of Invalidation
Wave (i) has been identified as the invalidation level at 197. Because As per wave rules, Wave (iv) cannot enter the price territory of Wave (i). If the price falls below this level, it can indicate that the expected Elliott Wave pattern is not as it seems.
I am not a registered Sebi analyst. I conduct my research solely for academic purposes.
Please speak with your financial advisor before trading or making any investments. I take no responsibility whatsoever for your gains or losses.
Regards
VJ 
Long
XAUUSD M30: Bearish Pressure Continues, 4,135 Is the Next XAUUSD M30: Bearish Pressure Continues, 4,135 Is the Next Key Target
Fundamental Analysis
Gold extends its three-day decline below 4,200 as the market continues to price in a stronger US dollar and a more hawkish Fed outlook. The dollar is holding near its yearly high, while renewed Iran tension keeps inflation concerns alive.
From a macro view, this keeps pressure on gold because higher rate expectations reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Gold remains vulnerable, and a deeper retest toward the 4,000 area is still being watched by the market.
Technical Analysis
On the M30 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,145 after breaking the previous BOS and continuing lower. The latest structure is clearly bearish, with price forming lower highs and lower lows.
The weekly low area around 4,155 - 4,160 has already been broken. If price fails to reclaim this zone, bearish continuation remains the priority.
The nearest target is 4,135. If selling pressure continues, gold may extend lower toward 4,110. The stronger buy reaction zone below is 4,058 - 4,084, where buyers may look for a deeper liquidity reaction.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,145
Broken weekly low: 4,155 - 4,160
Target 1: 4,135
Target 2: 4,110
Buy reaction zone: 4,058 - 4,084
Sell-side liquidity: 4,320 - 4,330
Main sell zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Bearish invalidation: Above 4,200
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Sell Continuation
Entry: 4,155 - 4,160 after bearish retest confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,185
Take Profit 1: 4,135
Take Profit 2: 4,110
Take Profit 3: 4,058 - 4,084
Entry Conditions
Price retests the broken 4,155 - 4,160 area.
Bearish rejection appears on M30 or lower timeframe.
Price fails to reclaim 4,160.
Structure continues forming lower highs.
Avoid selling if price breaks and holds back above 4,200.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Pullback
Entry: 4,200 - 4,220 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,160
Take Profit 2: 4,135
Take Profit 3: 4,110
Sell Conditions
Price needs to recover into the 4,200 - 4,220 area and fail to continue higher. If bearish rejection appears there, sellers may regain control for another downside leg.
Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,058 - 4,084 only after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,030
Take Profit 1: 4,110
Take Profit 2: 4,135
Take Profit 3: 4,160
Buy Conditions
This is only a reaction setup, not the main trend. Buyers need to show a clear liquidity sweep and bullish CHOCH inside the 4,058 - 4,084 zone before any buy idea becomes valid.
Overall View
Gold remains bearish on the M30 timeframe after breaking the weekly low. The main plan is to follow the downside trend and watch for continuation toward 4,135 and 4,110.
A deeper move into 4,058 - 4,084 could create a short-term buy reaction, but the main bias remains sell while price stays below 4,200.
Short
XAUUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Fibonacci Target in Focus
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as traders continue to watch USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the structure still favours sellers while XAUUSD trades below the main EMA range. Any recovery should be treated as a technical pullback unless price can reclaim the EMA resistance zone with strong confirmation.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This confirms that the current trend remains bearish, with the EMA structure acting as dynamic resistance above price.
Price has already rejected from the higher area and is now trading around 4,179. The current move shows strong bearish pressure, and the chart highlights a key sell zone around 4,221 - 4,225.
This sell zone is important because it aligns with the broken structure, previous reaction area, and EMA trend pressure. If gold pulls back into this zone and fails to break higher, sellers may regain control.
The psychological resistance zone around 4,160 - 4,170 is also important. If price stays below this area after a failed recovery, the bearish continuation scenario remains active.
The medium-term downside target is the Fibonacci level around 4,067, marked as the main retracement target on the chart.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,179
Main sell zone: 4,221 - 4,225
EMA resistance area: 4,254 - 4,285
Psychological resistance: 4,160 - 4,170
Short-term bearish trigger: below 4,160
Fibonacci medium-term target: 4,067
Extended liquidity target: 4,075 - 4,067
Invalidation area: above 4,254
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,221 - 4,225
Stop Loss: 4,254
Take Profit 1: 4,160
Take Profit 2: 4,075
Take Profit 3: 4,067
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,221 - 4,225 sell zone. This area is the key resistance zone on the chart and aligns with the bearish EMA structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA range.
If price rejects from 4,221 - 4,225 and breaks below 4,160, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next target would be 4,075, followed by the Fibonacci medium-term target around 4,067.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,221 - 4,225.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 4,160 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,254, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the 4,221 - 4,225 sell zone, then look for bearish confirmation toward 4,160, 4,075, and the Fibonacci target around 4,067.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner pullback into the sell zone first?
Short 
Long
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 19-Jun-2026🌟🙏 Please Boost or Like to receive daily updates 🌟🙏
Educational Intraday Trading Plan for All Opening Scenarios
Market Structure: NIFTY continues to trade in a bullish structure after a strong impulsive move. As long as price sustains above the immediate support zone, buyers are expected to remain in control. However, fresh buying should only be considered after confirmation around key levels rather than chasing momentum.
🔑 Important Levels
🔴 Major Resistance : 24,367
🔴 Higher Resistance / Target : 24,635
🟧 Supply Zone : 24,216 – 24,274
🟩 Opening Support : 24,003 – 24,032
🔴 Last Intraday Support (Buyers' SL Zone) : 23,896
🟢 Liquidity Mitigation Zone : 23,716 – 23,771
🟢 Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above Previous Close)
🟢 If NIFTY opens above 24,216–24,274, avoid entering immediately. Gap-up openings often witness profit booking before the next directional move.
🔹 Wait for the market to stabilize and observe whether the supply zone converts into support.
🔹 If price successfully retests the 24,216–24,274 zone and buyers defend it with strong bullish candles, long positions can be considered.
🔹 First upside objective will be 24,367.
🔹 Sustaining above 24,367 may trigger momentum towards 24,635.
🔹 If price fails to hold above the supply zone and slips back below it, expect intraday profit booking towards 24,032–24,003.
🔹 Avoid buying during emotional breakout candles. Always wait for confirmation.
🟡 Flat Opening (Within ±100 Points)
🟡 A flat opening generally provides the best opportunity to identify the day's trend.
🔹 Watch the reaction around 24,216–24,274 carefully.
🔹 Sustaining above this zone with increasing buying volume indicates continuation of the bullish trend.
🔹 Upside targets remain 24,367 followed by 24,635.
🔹 If repeated rejection occurs from the supply zone, expect intraday retracement towards 24,032–24,003.
🔹 Strong buying interest from the opening support zone can offer fresh long opportunities with proper confirmation.
🔹 Until price breaks either the support or supply zone decisively, avoid overtrading inside the range.
🔴 Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below Previous Close)
🔴 A large gap-down opening does not automatically indicate a bearish market.
🔹 First observe whether buyers defend the 24,032–24,003 support zone.
🔹 If buyers absorb selling pressure and price reclaims the opening support, an intraday recovery towards 24,216–24,274 is possible.
🔹 If 24,003 breaks decisively and price sustains below 23,896, selling pressure may extend.
🔹 In that case, the next high-probability buying area is the Liquidity Mitigation Zone (23,716–23,771).
🔹 This zone represents an area where institutional buying interest may emerge while existing sellers begin booking profits, increasing the probability of a technical reversal.
🔹 Do not blindly buy at support. Wait for consolidation, reversal patterns, or strong bullish confirmation before entering.
📚 Educational Notes
🔸 Supply zones are areas where sellers previously dominated the market.
🔸 Once a supply zone is broken and successfully retested, it often becomes a strong support.
🔸 Liquidity Mitigation Zones are regions where smart money may accumulate positions after liquidity has been taken from weak hands.
🔸 Always trade based on price confirmation—not prediction.
🔸 Let price come to your levels instead of chasing the market.
🛡️ Options Trading Risk Management
🟢 Never risk more than 1–2% of your total trading capital on a single trade.
🟢 Always trade with a predefined Stop Loss.
🟢 Avoid buying options after large momentum candles due to premium expansion.
🟢 Wait for confirmation before entering trades near important support or resistance levels.
🟢 Book partial profits at important resistance levels instead of waiting for the final target.
🟢 Do not average losing option positions.
🟢 Avoid revenge trading after a losing trade.
🟢 Focus on high-probability setups rather than increasing the number of trades.
🟢 If market structure becomes unclear, staying out is also a profitable decision.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
📈 The overall market structure remains bullish, but NIFTY is approaching an important Supply Zone (24,216–24,274) where profit booking may occur.
🎯 A sustained move above this zone can open the path towards 24,367 and eventually 24,635.
⚠️ Failure to sustain above the supply zone may result in a healthy retracement towards 24,032–24,003. If weakness continues below 23,896, watch the 23,716–23,771 Liquidity Mitigation Zone for potential buying opportunities after proper confirmation.
💡 Remember: Professional traders react to price action—they do not predict it. Patience, discipline, and risk management consistently outperform emotional decision-making.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is shared strictly for educational and learning purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Long 
MASON XAUUSD – Downside Sweep Still PossibleMASON XAUUSD – Bearish Pressure Builds As Gold Breaks Trendline And Ichimoku Support
XAUUSD is trading around 4,177 after a strong bearish move. Price has broken below the rising trendline and is now moving under the Ichimoku cloud, showing that sellers are taking control into the end of the week.
The main view is bearish. Gold may still create a short pullback, but the structure favours another downside sweep before the market close.
Technical View
The previous bullish trendline has been broken clearly. After the break, price failed to recover back above the trendline, which means the old bullish structure is no longer strong.
Price Action is showing lower highs and lower lows after rejection from the 4,240–4,250 area. This confirms that sellers are defending the upside and buyers are losing momentum.
The sell zone around 4,242–4,251 is now the key resistance area. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects again, it may provide a cleaner sell setup.
Ichimoku also supports the bearish view. Price is trading below the cloud, while the cloud above price is now acting as resistance. As long as gold stays below the cloud, the downside pressure remains stronger.
Current price is reacting near the 4,172 support area. If this zone fails, gold may sweep deeper toward 4,118, then the sell liquidity around 4,053.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,177
Sell Zone: 4,242–4,251
Broken support / resistance: 4,218
Short-term support: 4,172
Next downside level: 4,118
Sell liquidity: 4,053
Lower liquidity: 4,023
Invalidation: above 4,251
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,242–4,251
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, lower high, or failed recovery back above the Ichimoku cloud.
SL: above 4,251
TP1: 4,172
TP2: 4,118
TP3: 4,053
Final target: 4,023
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,172 directly, wait for a retest of this zone as resistance before looking for continuation toward 4,118 and 4,053.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the trendline and Ichimoku cloud. A short-term buy reaction may appear around support, but it should be treated carefully unless price recovers back above 4,218 and holds.
Final View
Overall, gold is showing strong bearish pressure into the end of the week. As long as price stays below 4,242–4,251, the market may continue lower and create one more liquidity sweep before closing.
Do you think gold will retest the sell zone first, or sweep directly toward 4,053?
Short 
Long
Short
XAUUSD — EMA Consolidation Before Bearish Continuation
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still reacting around the EMA area, so the current move may be only a short-term consolidation before sellers attempt another push lower.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,304 after a strong rejection from the upper value range. Price is now consolidating near the EMA 34 and EMA 89 area, showing that the market is pausing before choosing the next direction.
The key zone to watch is 4,301 - 4,320. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, volume reaction, and short-term EMA structure. If price fails to hold above this area, sellers may regain control.
The stronger resistance remains around 4,359 - 4,382. As long as gold stays below this value range, the bearish view remains preferred.
If price breaks below the current EMA consolidation zone, the next downside levels are 4,257 and 4,219. A deeper bearish continuation may target the larger convergence support zone around 4,118 - 4,125.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,304
EMA consolidation zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Fibonacci retracement + volume zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Upper value range resistance: 4,359 - 4,382
First downside target: 4,257
Second downside target: 4,219
Major convergence support zone: 4,118 - 4,125
Invalidation area: above 4,382
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,301 - 4,320
Stop Loss: 4,382
Take Profit 1: 4,257
Take Profit 2: 4,219
Take Profit 3: 4,118 - 4,125
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to react around the 4,301 - 4,320 EMA and Fibonacci value zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or a lower high below the upper value range.
If price breaks below 4,257 with clear bearish momentum, the next downside focus will be 4,219. Below that, the larger target zone is 4,118 - 4,125.
Entry Conditions
Wait for rejection around 4,301 - 4,320.
Do not sell if price breaks strongly above the value zone.
A move below 4,257 confirms stronger bearish pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,382, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the upper value range and fails to reclaim stronger resistance. Price may continue to consolidate around the EMA zone in the short term, but if sellers defend 4,301 - 4,320, gold may continue lower toward 4,257, 4,219, and 4,118 - 4,125.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a clearer breakdown below the EMA consolidation zone?
Short 
XAUUSD: Rising channel supports bullish trend.Gold is trading inside a clear rising channel, and the current price action shows that buyers are still defending the short-term recovery structure. From Kelly’s view, the market is building a new Elliott Wave sequence, with the latest pullback looking more like a healthy correction than a full bearish reversal.
The key idea is simple: as long as price holds above the trend-following buy zone, the bullish wave structure remains valid.
⟡ Market structure
Gold has recovered strongly from the lower area and is now moving within an upward channel. The previous resistance around 4,350 acted as a strong barrier, but price has already tested that zone several times and is now trying to build support above the rising trendline.
The current pullback into the 4,275–4,300 area is important because it aligns with the trend-following buying zone. If buyers defend this area, gold may continue forming higher lows and prepare for the next upside leg.
The upper liquidity area around 4,520–4,530 remains the larger upside reference if momentum continues.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,275–4,300: trend-following buying zone
◌ 4,307: current reaction area
◌ 4,350–4,375: strong resistance and breakout area
◌ 4,420: next upside checkpoint
◌ 4,520–4,530: wave 5 completion / upper liquidity zone
◌ Below 4,275: area where the bullish channel structure weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bullish 5-wave structure inside the rising channel.
Wave 1 started from the lower base.
Wave 2 corrected into channel support.
Wave 3 pushed price towards the strong resistance zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a controlled pullback into the buy zone.
If this area holds, wave 5 may begin and push gold towards the upper channel target.
This is why Kelly would not read the current pullback as bearish yet. The correction is happening inside an uptrend channel, not below it.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the 4,275–4,300 buying zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,275–4,300 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below 4,260 or below the confirmed reaction low
Take profit 1: 4,350
Take profit 2: 4,420
Take profit 3: 4,520–4,530
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,275 and loses the rising channel support, the bullish Elliott structure weakens and the chart may need a new read.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a buy-the-pullback structure inside a rising channel. The market is not showing a clean bearish reversal yet because buyers are still defending the channel rhythm.
The cleaner setup is to watch the reaction around the trend-following buying zone. If price holds there, the next bullish wave may develop towards the upper liquidity area.
Gold is still building an Elliott Wave recovery.
As long as the rising channel holds, the upside structure remains active.
Share your view below. Long 
GBPUSD — Sell From EMA Value Zone & Fibonacci Levels
Fundamental Analysis
GBPUSD remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD strength, U.K. data, and upcoming macro events.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still trading below the key EMA resistance area, so pullbacks into value may continue to offer sell opportunities.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3323 after a sharp bearish move from the upper range. Price is currently reacting near the strong support area, but the broader structure still favours sellers while the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price.
The key zone to watch is the EMA value zone around 1.3380 - 1.3395. This area also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement and previous broken support. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, sellers may regain control.
There is also a short-term Fibonacci reaction level around 1.3355 - 1.3363, which can create a scalping sell reaction if price fails to recover strongly.
As long as GBPUSD remains below the EMA value zone, the main bias stays bearish. A rejection from the Fibonacci retracement levels may send price back toward 1.3320, then deeper to 1.3260.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.3323
Strong support area: 1.3315 - 1.3330
Sell scalping zone: 1.3355 - 1.3363
Main EMA value sell zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Fibonacci 0.382 value zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Upper invalidation area: above 1.3415
First downside target: 1.3315
Main downside target: 1.3260
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Stop Loss: 1.3415
Take Profit 1: 1.3330
Take Profit 2: 1.3315
Take Profit 3: 1.3260
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for GBPUSD to pull back into the 1.3380 - 1.3395 EMA value zone. This area is important because it combines EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below 1.3330, bearish pressure may continue toward 1.3315 and 1.3260.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.3380 - 1.3395.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly at strong support without a pullback.
If price breaks and holds above 1.3415, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while GBPUSD trades below the EMA value zone. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into 1.3380 - 1.3395, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.3330, 1.3315, and 1.3260.
Do you share the same bearish view on GBPUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone?
XAUUSD — Sell From Fibonacci & EMA Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive as traders continue to watch USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. While the recent recovery is visible, the broader structure still stays under EMA resistance.
For now, any upside move should be treated as a corrective pullback unless gold can break and hold above the main EMA value zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is recovering from the lower liquidity area around 4,077, but the main trend is still under bearish EMA pressure.
EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 are still positioned above or near price, showing that the market has not fully shifted bullish. The recent move looks more like a retracement into value rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
The key sell zone is around 4,375 - 4,423. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, EMA resistance, previous structure, and the upper side of the corrective channel.
If price reaches this zone and shows bearish rejection, sellers may regain control. The first downside reaction area is the VL zone around 4,230 - 4,247. Below that, the deeper liquidity target remains around 4,077.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,323
Fibonacci & EMA value sell zone: 4,375 - 4,423
Short-term support / VL zone: 4,230 - 4,247
Liquidity target: 4,077
EMA reaction area: 4,375 - 4,423
Invalidation area: above 4,423
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,375 - 4,423
Stop Loss: 4,440
Take Profit 1: 4,247
Take Profit 2: 4,230
Take Profit 3: 4,077
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,375 - 4,423 value zone. This area combines Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, and previous price reaction.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 4,291 - 4,300, bearish pressure may return toward 4,247 and 4,230. A deeper breakdown may then target the liquidity zone around 4,077.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to reach 4,375 - 4,423.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly while price is still in the middle of the range.
If price breaks and holds above 4,423 - 4,440, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the key EMA value zone. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into 4,375 - 4,423, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,247, 4,230, and 4,077.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the Fibonacci and EMA value zone?
Short 
XAUUSD -Strong Bullish Reaction After FOMC Strong Bullish Reaction After FOMC, Buy Retest Remains Priority
Gold is trading around $4,320 after a strong bullish reaction following the FOMC move. Price swept the weekly low near $4,219, then recovered sharply and reclaimed short-term structure.
From an SMC perspective, the market has already shown CHoCH and strong bullish displacement. The current pullback into $4,311–$4,320 is important because this area aligns with the FVG and retest liquidity zone. As long as gold holds above this zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains active.
The next upside liquidity sits around the week high at $4,383, followed by the trendline area near $4,421. If buyers continue to defend the retest zone, gold can extend toward the main OB sell zone at $4,466–$4,471.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds the $4,311–$4,320 retest liquidity zone and prints bullish rejection with lower-timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,311–$4,320
SL: below $4,290
TP1: $4,383
TP2: $4,421
TP3: $4,466–$4,471
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks and holds above the week high at $4,383, wait for a retest before looking for continuation.
Entry: $4,380–$4,390 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,350
TP1: $4,421
TP2: $4,450
TP3: $4,466–$4,471
Sell setup
Condition:
Selling is not the priority right now. A sell setup is only valid if gold reaches the $4,466–$4,471 OB sell zone and shows clear rejection with bearish MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,466–$4,471 after rejection
SL: above $4,490
TP1: $4,421
TP2: $4,383
TP3: $4,320
Key levels
Current price area: $4,320
Buy retest liquidity: $4,311–$4,320
Week low: $4,219
Week high: $4,383
Trendline target: $4,421
Main OB sell zone: $4,466–$4,471
Bullish invalidation: clean 1H close below $4,290
My current view is bullish after the FOMC reaction while gold holds above the $4,311–$4,320 retest zone. The best Prime Gold plan is to wait for price to confirm support at liquidity, then follow the next upside move toward the upper OB zone.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
Long
