Real-time market insights

USDJPY USDJPY: the pair has already moved up 4 yen from the intervention episode lows; back to being a buy on dips on a daily timeframe; Japanese 10-year government bond (JGB) yield moved back above 2.80%; a Japanese holiday today. Only Japan can have a holiday named Mountain day. The BoJ’s policy bind persists and that is not going away. Fight inflation or protect the fiscal position — Japan can’t easily do both. Buy on dips- resistance at 159.77; supports at 158.93 & 158.35

USDJPY USDJPY: very nice looking chart this. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the joint yen intervention is about more than supporting the currency. It aims to preserve regional financial stability, reinforce US backing for Japan as a key strategic ally, and create room for Tokyo to advance broader domestic economic reforms. Interestingly the pair found support at 155.60 which is from where it found support the last time intervention drove it down. Interesting times ahead. Reports say Takaichi "asked the Bank of Japan to buy more government bonds when necessary to curb rises in long-term interest rates. The plot grows thicker. Resistance at 158.35; above this at 158.62; supports at 157.35- 156.75

USDJPY USDJPY: The U.S. Treasury has informed a number of banks that it may intervene in the Japanese yen market on Friday and that they should "stand ready for future action. Japanese authorities stepped in to prop up the yen, setting the currency up for its biggest weekly rise since February, pulling it off of four-decade lows against the dollar. The weekly pivot is at 157.60; below this the structure is a high conviction sell on rise; resistances at 158.35 & 158.93; below 157.31, support at 156.75 & then 155.60

USDJPY USDJPY: the pair fell tracking the fall in USD across the board. The Japanese 10y bond yield again rose back tracking global yields. Tomorrow we have the BoJ rate decision and the statements from the BoJ; consensus is of a hold. The BoJ is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The pair has been moving up in phases. Traded a while between 161.94 & 162.71; now between 162.71 & 164.11; then intervention buzz, but only on a break of 164.11; selling around 164 allows you to trade with a tight stop. Trade with stops and wait for direction

USDJPY USDJPY: the poker game between markets on one side and Japan’s MoF & the BoJ on the other side with neither side blinking. No intervention yet. And yen bears keep pushing the pair up. Falling oil prices give some relief to bond yields and also increasing evidence of rising demand for Japanese bonds from - The Japanese themselves. Some chatter on Takaichi planning to cut consumption tax. Trades: sell here with a stop at 164.11; but on a break of 164.11- target of 164.60 & beyond

USDJPY USDJPY: Japanese authorities' warning to markets that they are ready to take "bold" action to counter the depreciation has not moved the currency in any meaningful way. Japan's finance minister warned markets that Japan's policy on potential intervention remained unchanged and that it would take action if necessary. The perils of Crying wolf too often. The only trade that worked was the buy on a break of 162.71; next target is 164.11; and above this at a pivotal 164.60; support at 162.71 & 161.94; trade longs with stops. Good thing about shorting here is that one could do that with a small stop- 164.11

USDJPY USDJPY: this is why they say- trade the price; ignore the noise; the pair was always a buy on dips- but fear of intervention made that a very uneasy trade; Japanese authorities' warning to markets that they are ready to take "bold" action to counter the depreciation has not moved the currency in any meaningful way. In a press conference on Wednesday, Satsuki Katayama said that Japan's policy on potential intervention remained unchanged and that it would take action if necessary. Sigh. The recent high of 163.24 is key; above 162.71- the target is 164.11; supports at 162.71 & 161.94; sell here with a stop at 163.30

USDJPY USDJPY: another range bound day. The squeeze continues; Japanese government bond cash markets were closed due to the Marine Day public holiday. The pair have a getting perilously close to a point where a breakout or break down is imminent; markets will keep testing the MoFs resolve. With intervention chatters quiet for now- let’s see how that goes. Buy only on a break of 162.71; alternatively, sell at 162.71- with a stop at 163.00. Only tactical trades for now.

USDJPY USDJPY: The pair remains range bound and is getting into a ‘Squeeze zone’. Meaning that a break on either side can lead to a big move. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield edged up slightly to finish at 2.712%, as domestic markets adapt to tapering central bank bond interventions. Swaps price a reduced 32% probability of an incremental 15 bps rate hike at the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy review- so basically a hold. This is a no trade zone; a big directional move requires a conviction break of 162.71 or a break below 161.30

USDJPY USDJPY: The pair has been relatively unperturbed or affected by geopolitics or the fall in USD or anything else. Trading in a small range. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected widespread assertions that her administration’s draft economic blueprint is responsible for the ongoing domestic market rout. The Nikkei has lost nearly 5% these past few days. BoJ published explosive meeting transcripts revealing that the historical decision to introduce negative interest rates was highly contested- reinforcing a HOLD on July 31. Tricky phase for the pair. Buy only on a break of 162.71; sell at 162.71- stop at 163.00