US 100 Index – Where Next?We highlighted in our piece last week the potential importance of the outcome to Friday’s US payrolls release on sentiment towards stocks in the US 100 index, and it certainly didn’t disappoint! The index experienced its biggest 1 day drop in well over 1 year, slipping 5.16% to close the week at 28816. The strength of Friday’s jobs report, which saw Federal Reserve interest rate expectations shift higher, something that as a rule weighs on growth stocks in the US 100, coupled with disappointing results announced by Broadcom late on Wednesday, combined to undermine the incredible rally in AI stocks that had been driving the index to numerous record highs in recent weeks.
Now, with the index attempting a rebound so far this morning, currently trading 0.6% higher at 29010 at time of writing (0715 BST), traders may be scratching their heads and asking where next?
When sentiment turns and begins to reverse direction it can lead to a challenging trading environment. In this type of situation, it can be helpful to reassess the macro and technical backdrop.
On the macro side, the Iran conflict is well into its 4 month with concerns increasing that the current ceasefire agreement between all the parties could be under serious threat after Iran and Israel traded missile strikes over the weekend.
On the economic data front, the outcome of the latest US CPI (Wednesday, 1330 BST) and PPI (Thursday, 1330 BST) readings could have a crucial influence over the direction of market interest rate expectations leading up to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on June 17th.
How all these events evolve across the week ahead could be very important for the direction of the US 100 index into Friday’s close.
Technical Update: Focus Shifts to Last Correction Low Support:
On Friday, the US 100 index showed the first sign of corrective themes emerging, with a 5.40% decline from the day’s high (30387) into the session low (28747). A move of this magnitude has not occurred since April 4th 2025, when the index fell by more than 6% in a single session.
Of course, this type of activity does not guarantee that further weakness may follow in the upcoming week. However, with uncertainty rising, traders may be reassessing the technical backdrop and attempting to identify potential key support and resistance levels to help gauge the next directional themes.
Potential Support Levels:
As the chart below shows, Friday’s decline produced the first close below the Bollinger mid‑average since April 3rd 2026, a level that might previously have been expected to act as support. This development may suggest increased risks of further downside momentum, as the market searches for the next support area.
Following a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the basic definition of an uptrend, traders often monitor the last correction low. In the case of the US 100 index, 28596, a level equal to the May 19th session low and rally point, may be the initial focus this week.
Closing breaks below 28596, if seen, could lead to further declines, shifting attention to 27711, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March 31st to June 3rd advance, and if this level were to give way, potentially toward 26768, the 50% retracement.
Potential Resistance Levels:
After last week’s sharp sell‑off from the latest all‑time high of 30776 (June 3rd), Fibonacci retracements of the decline may be useful in identifying potential resistance levels if a recovery phase develops.
Using this tool, the 38.2% retracement at 29351 may be viewed as the first key resistance on any rebound is the US 100 from its current levels. If upside breaks above 29351 were to occur, focus could shift to 30006, which is the 61.8% level. If this level were broken on a closing basis, it could open the possibly for a move back toward 30776, the June 3rd all‑time high.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
HYPE Liquidation Map Suggests Bulls Could Target 40% RallyThe Hyperliquid price is recovering after a sharp correction that followed a major token unlock and whale-driven profit-taking. After the recent correction that dragged the levels to $55, the buyers stepped in, viewing it as a buying opportunity. Moreover, the rounds of Arthur Hayes selling all of his HYPE positions had triggered a massive pullback, while his buying has flipped the market sentiment.
The latest recovery is particularly noteworthy because it coincides with a bullish technical structure and a liquidation map showing significant short positions above the current price. If those levels are breached, forced liquidations could accelerate the rally and potentially push HYPE another 40%.
What Does the Hyperliquid Price Chart Suggest?
Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact. Rather than breaking market structure, the latest correction appears to be a retest of support within the channel, a pattern often seen during healthy bullish trends. The price has already bounced from the lower half of the channel and is attempting to reclaim momentum near the midline.
Another encouraging signal comes from the RSI, which has cooled to around the neutral zone after previously approaching overbought conditions. This reset suggests that excessive bullish momentum has eased, potentially providing room for another upward move if buying pressure returns. Besides, the Supertrend has a bearish trend, which raises concerns over the next price action.
From a technical perspective, the immediate resistance lies in the $70-$75 region, where HYPE recently faced selling pressure. A decisive breakout above this zone would confirm renewed bullish momentum. On the downside, the $58-$60 range has emerged as an important support area. Holding above this level would keep the ascending channel intact, while a sustained break below it could shift sentiment toward a deeper correction before the next directional move.
What Does the Hyperliquid Liquidation Map Indicate?
Beyond the price chart, the Hyperliquid liquidation map provides valuable insight into where the market could move next. At the current price of around $63, the data shows a significant imbalance between long and short liquidation clusters, with considerably larger liquidity sitting above the market than below it.
hype price
The chart displays a concentration of short liquidation leverage beginning above the current trading range and increasing sharply toward the $80, $90, $100, and even $115 levels. These areas represent price zones where short sellers could be forced to close their positions if HYPE continues moving higher, called the Short squeeze.
On the downside, the liquidation map shows comparatively limited long liquidation leverage below the current price, suggesting the immediate downside pressure may be less aggressive than the upside liquidation potential.
Can Hyperliquid Rally Another 40%? Here’s What Needs to Happen
Hyperliquid’s bullish structure remains intact, but a 40% rally will depend on its ability to reclaim key resistance and sustain buying momentum. The token continues to trade within an ascending channel, suggesting the broader uptrend has not been invalidated.
A decisive breakout above the $70-$75 zone could trigger fresh buying interest. More importantly, the liquidation map shows significant short positions stacked above the current price, meaning a move higher could force short sellers to cover their positions and accelerate the rally toward the $88-$90 region.
However, the bullish outlook would weaken if HYPE loses the $58-$60 support area, which could shift momentum toward a deeper correction before the next breakout attempt. 
Short
Did Strategy Sell More Bitcoin Last Week? Saylor’s ’32?’Just a week after the strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin revealed its first BTC sale since 2022, and investors are once again questioning whether Michael Saylor’s company sold more BTC last week.
A cryptic “32?” has sparked debate over whether Strategy is still buying the dip, or quietly reducing exposure.
Saylor’s “32?” Tweet: What does it mean?
The speculation began when Saylor later posted a simple message on X: “32?” The post triggered a wave of theories across crypto social media. Some users interpreted it as a reference to the 32 BTC sale, while others speculated it could hint at a future 32000 Bitcoin purchase.
Crypto user Helin Ulker even suggested the number could signal a potential move toward $32,000 Bitcoin, though no evidence supports that claim.
32k Bitcoin?
At the same time, on-chain activity has shown no evidence of major Strategy-linked transfers to exchanges, moves that would normally suggest a large sale is coming.
Economist Says a Major BTC Sale Would Be a Huge Mistake
Argentine economist and trader Alex Kruger pushed back against fears that Strategy may have sold a substantial amount of Bitcoin.
According to Kruger, many traders appear to believe that if Strategy did not sell billions of dollars worth of BTC last week, then Bitcoin’s recent weakness must continue.
He disagrees.
Kruger argued that selling billions of dollars of Bitcoin shortly after purchasing large amounts near $81,000 would represent a costly mistake and undermine the company’s entire accumulation strategy.
“Worst case scenario,” he said, would be Strategy damaging its credibility by abandoning the very approach that made it the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Saylor’s Good Time to Add More Dots
Adding another twist, Saylor recently shared Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition tracker with the caption, “A good time to add more dots.”
Historically, similar posts have preceded new Bitcoin purchase announcements.
A good time to add more dots. pic.twitter.com/4cRmmtbzKv
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 7, 2026
At the same time, blockchain data has not shown any major Strategy-linked transfers to exchanges over the past week. For many traders, that is an important detail because exchange deposits often signal preparation for a sale.
Buy the Dip or Sell More?
The absence of exchange activity has led some analysts to believe that Strategy may have been preparing to buy rather than sell.
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe argued that if Saylor announces another Bitcoin purchase, fears surrounding the recent 32 BTC sale could quickly fade. While the transaction represented just 0.0037% of the company’s massive 843,706 BTC holdings, it was enough to unsettle investors.
Strategy controls nearly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, making even small sales closely watched events.
Therefore, Van de poppe believes any accumulation would strengthen confidence in the market and potentially help Bitcoin recover toward the $70,000 level. Short 
Long
Weekly Review - One Chart -> Market Deterioration or Rotation?TLDR:
The market is sending a mixed but interpretable message. Internal momentum has weakened and volatility pressure has returned, yet long-term participation remains constructive and leadership is rotating rather than collapsing. For now, the evidence supports a view of sector rotation under pressure, not broad market deterioration. The next important question is whether participation re-expands and validates the rotation—or whether weakness spreads and transforms pressure into genuine
1️⃣ What do we see today?
Price remains near recent highs, but the real story is happening beneath the surface.
The latest session showed very weak breadth, with only 30% of NYSE stocks and 23% of NASDAQ stocks advancing. Declining volume dominated the NYSE, and volatility pressure has risen sharply as the VIX/VIX3M ratio moved back toward the critical 1.0 threshold.
At first glance, this appears bearish.
However, the broader dashboard tells a more nuanced story:
* % of stocks above SMA200 continues to improve.
* % of stocks above SMA20 improved over the past week before the recent setback.
* NYSE New Highs still exceed New Lows.
* Long-term participation remains healthy.
* Sector leadership is broadening beyond Technology into Energy, Industrials and selected Financial and Healthcare groups.
The evidence suggests capital is still participating in the market, but it is increasingly changing location within the market.
⸻
2️⃣ Thesis
The dominant message is rotation under pressure, not broad deterioration.
The market is no longer experiencing the powerful participation expansion that fueled the April–May recovery. Leadership has become more selective, breadth has weakened, and volatility pressure has increased.
Yet long-term participation continues to improve and NYSE leadership remains positive.
This suggests money is rotating between sectors rather than exiting the market altogether.
The framework therefore classifies the environment as:
Acceptance under Pressure with Evidence of Sector Rotation.
⸻
3️⃣ What validates the thesis?
The rotation thesis remains valid if:
* % Above SMA200 continues to rise or remains stable.
* NYSE New Highs continue to exceed New Lows.
* Financials and Healthcare continue repairing.
* Energy and Industrials remain leadership groups.
* VIX/VIX3M stabilizes below or around 1.0.
* Participation improves after weakness rather than collapsing further.
In this scenario, the market broadens leadership rather than breaking structurally.
⸻
4️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
The thesis is invalidated if:
* % Above SMA20 rolls over persistently across both exchanges.
* % Above SMA200 starts declining.
* NYSE New Lows begin exceeding New Highs.
* Leadership deterioration spreads beyond NASDAQ.
* VIX/VIX3M establishes itself above 1.0 and continues rising.
* Sector rotation fails and weakness becomes market-wide.
At that point, the evidence would shift from rotation toward genuine internal deterioration.
⸻
Why This Dashboard Matters
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
Most investors see a large down day and immediately ask:
“Is the bull market over?”
This dashboard asks a better question:
“Is participation improving or deteriorating?”
Our analysis showed that while breadth weakened sharply on the latest session, long-term participation remains healthy, NYSE leadership remains positive, and sector leadership is rotating rather than collapsing.
Instead of forming an opinion from price alone, we separate:
* short-term participation
* long-term participation
* leadership
* volatility
* volume
That distinction allows us to conclude that the market is under pressure, but not yet under broad structural stress.
I don’t need to know the future; I need to assess whether evidence is improving.
⸻
2. Reduction of Effort
Without a framework, every market move requires a new explanation.
With this dashboard, we repeatedly focus on the same recurring conditions:
* Are more stocks participating?
* Are New Highs expanding?
* Is volume confirming?
* Is volatility stabilizing or increasing?
* Is leadership broadening or narrowing?
In this case, the framework quickly revealed that the important question was not whether Technology sold off, but whether leadership was migrating into Energy, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare.
The answer emerged from a handful of indicators rather than hundreds of charts.
I don’t need to analyze everything; I need to recognize a handful of recurring conditions.
⸻
3. Identity Reinforcement
The purpose of this framework is not prediction.
It is evidence assessment.
During this analysis, the easy conclusion would have been either:
* “Everything is fine because price is near highs.”
or
* “Everything is broken because breadth was terrible today.”
The framework rejected both extremes.
Instead, it identified a more evidence-based conclusion:
Participation has weakened.
Leadership has narrowed.
Volatility pressure has increased.
But long-term participation remains healthy and sector rotation is still occurring.
That conclusion comes from process, not opinion.
I am a process-driven investor, not a prediction-driven investor.
::: BTC: Bear regime day 10 — $60.3K, AI at 97% Bear confidenceRegime State
INDEX:BTCUSD is in a Bear regime for 10 bars with a strongly negative score. The AI model has moved to 97% Bear confidence — up from 49% just one session ago, which is one of the sharpest single-session confidence shifts visible across this entire series of Ideas. Whatever the AI is reading in the derivatives data right now, it has made up its mind. The macro regime is still flagging Risk-On with a 5/10 risk meter, which makes the cross-asset picture unusual — the AI is seeing near-certain Bear conditions in the underlying data while the macro tailwind label persists. That divergence is worth watching.
The Setup
Price is at $60,316 on INDEX:BTCUSD , having opened at $63,814 and printed a session low of $60,033 — a -5.49% session on volume of 25.12K, the highest volume reading visible on the chart by a significant margin. The 20 SMA is at $73,173 and declining, with price now $12,857 below a falling average. The chart from May 14 onward is unambiguous: eight consecutive sessions of lower highs and lower lows from the $82K peak, a brief compression in the $76K–$77K zone, and then a near-vertical decline through $74K, $72K, $70K, $67K, $64K and now $60K. Each of those levels identified in prior Ideas as structural references was taken out without a meaningful pause. The April low zone that was referenced as the next support below $72K has also been broken — INDEX:BTCUSD is now trading below every level established during the 26-bar Bull regime.
What Would Change the Read
At 97% Bear confidence with BINANCE:ETHUSD at 56% Bear, SOL at 98% Bear, and ADA at 93% Bear, the AI is not showing any cross-asset divergence that would support a reversal thesis. A close back above $63K — today's open — would be the minimum requirement to suggest today's session was a capitulation low rather than continuation. A close below $60K on this volume profile opens the high-$50K zone as the next reference with no structural support visible on the current chart. The one input that cuts against the Bear read is BNB shifting to Transition at 49% — a single asset stepping out of Bear alignment is a weak signal, but it is the only one the AI is currently producing that isn't uniformly bearish.
Continuity
Previous Idea (May 29) noted the AI's Range confidence decaying from 83% to 70% and flagged that the direction of that decay mattered. It decayed to Bear at 97%. The $72K–$73K zone tested on May 29 didn't hold — price is now $12K below it. Ten bars of Bear regime, each lower than the last. Short 
Short 
USDJPY - Testing the Patience of Japanese AuthoritiesUSDJPY has been on the rise again this week, pushing this popular currency pair briefly back above 160.00 (160.09 high yesterday), a line that some traders view as a possible intervention warning trigger which has drawn official action from Japanese authorities to weaken the dollar (USD), and strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the past.
Only 6 weeks ago, on April 30th, USDJPY had just traded at a 2-year high of 160.73 before the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to step in, producing a sharp decline that led to a low of 155.03 being traded on May 6th. Since that drop, rising Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, US economic outperformance and dollar (USD) safe haven demand have seen USDJPY edge steadily higher in a slow painful squeeze for those caught short.
Now, with no sign yet of an agreement between the US-Iran to extend the ceasefire, let alone reach a peace deal to end the conflict, USDJPY is currently trading at 159.90 (0645 BST) with FX traders preparing to face the test of the latest US Non-farm payrolls release, tomorrow at 1330 BST.
This update on the current health of the US jobs market is expected to be a potential driver of FX volatility, as its outcome has major significance for the interest rate setting committee at the Federal Reserve, who next meet in just 12 days’ time on June 17th. In recent months, the headline jobs number and unemployment rate have remained remarkably resilient to the negative impact of the Iran conflict, inflation and a slowing global economy. A similar outcome on Friday could impact USDJPY prices dramatically, especially if the currency pair starts to gain momentum above 160.73 (April 30th high).
Technical Update: Heading Back to Recent Failure Highs:
While the Bank of Japan intervention in late April triggered a five‑session decline from the April 30th high at 160.73 into the May 6th low at 155.03, subsequent price action has produced a steady and consistent recovery. This rebound has now retraced a vast majority of the prior decline, bringing USDJPY back toward the 160.00 area, just below the zone where the BoJ previously intervened.
The chart above highlights how this type of intervention can impact USDJPY, and traders may understandably be cautious that a similar price action could occur again.
While there is no guarantee the BoJ will intervene if USDJPY moves above 160.00, the potential for increased volatility could keep traders on high alert over upcoming sessions. Good risk management and awareness of key support and resistance levels may help guide decision making regarding the next directional move.
Potential Resistance Levels:
In previous notes we highlighted the March 30th high at 160.46 as an important focus for traders. Although the pair printed a high of 160.73 on April 30th, the 160.46 level held on a closing basis, and it was from this area that the sharp decline began as BoJ intervention materialised. For this reason, the 160.46/160.73 band could be viewed as the first key resistance zone for USDJPY.
If USDJPY can achieve closing breaks above 160.46/160.73, it could open scope for further price strength. In that scenario, the focus may shift to 161.95, which is the July 2024 failure high, which also marks the highest USDJPY level since December 1986, nearly 40 years ago!
Potential Support Levels:
While the 160.46/160.73 resistance zone continues to cap USDJPY on a closing basis, attention may turn to potential support at 158.87, which is the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. A daily close below 158.87 may be required to tilt risks back toward renewed downside pressure.
A closing break below 158.87, while not an outright negative development, could expose the next support at 158.15, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest May/June phase of strength and if this level were to give way, even 157.55, the 50% level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted. Short 
Market Pulse After the CloseMarket Pulse - June 2, 2026 After-Close Map
Today was another “quiet headline, busy under the hood” session.
The S&P 500 and Dow closed modestly higher, Nasdaq finished nearly flat, and small caps outperformed. The bigger story was not broad index panic or euphoria. It was AI infrastructure strength, oil/geopolitical risk staying alive, and a hot JOLTS print that kept the labor market from looking weak.
Pre-market setup:
- Futures were slightly soft after Monday’s record-setting session.
- HPE was the standout AI infrastructure catalyst, surging pre-market after strong AI-server demand and higher long-term targets.
- JOLTS was the main macro event at 10:00 AM ET.
- Oil stayed in focus because U.S.-Iran / Strait of Hormuz headlines are still driving inflation and rate-risk sensitivity.
Macro read:
JOLTS job openings came in at 7.6M for April, well above expectations and up from 6.9M in March. That is not a clean “slowdown” signal. But hires and separations both fell, so the more accurate read is this:
Openings improved, but labor-market churn cooled.
That helped explain why equities did not fall apart, but also why the tape did not become a full-send everything rally.
Primary futures performance today:
| Product | Close | Change vs Prior Anchor | Session Range |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ES | 7,627.00 | +13.75 / +0.18% | 7,576.50 - 7,632.00 |
| NQ | 30,749.00 | +182.75 / +0.60% | 30,317.75 - 30,763.25 |
| YM | 51,421 | +287 / +0.56% | 50,841 - 51,443 |
| RTY | 2,934.00 | +24.30 / +0.84% | 2,889.30 - 2,938.40 |
| GC | 4,519.60 | +44.40 / +0.99% | 4,492.30 - 4,571.30 |
| CL | 93.57 | +1.41 / +1.53% | 90.12 - 94.00 |
My read:
- ES held bullish structure but did not explode.
- NQ was still leadership, but it is now stretched on higher-timeframe volatility.
- RTY confirming was important. Small caps helped the tape look healthier.
- Gold stayed bid, which tells me macro hedging is still present.
- Crude gained again, so the inflation/geopolitical risk valve is not closed.
Tomorrow’s Expected Moves - Wednesday, June 3, 2026
These are not predictions. They are volatility-defined reference zones. The useful signal is how price behaves at the edges: rejection, acceptance, or reclaim.
| Product | Anchor | 1SD Range | 2SD Range |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ES | 7,627.00 | 7,564.04 - 7,689.96 | 7,501.09 - 7,752.91 |
| NQ | 30,749.00 | 30,374.47 - 31,123.53 | 29,999.95 - 31,498.05 |
| YM | 51,421 | 50,997 - 51,845 | 50,572 - 52,270 |
| RTY | 2,934.00 | 2,909.78 - 2,958.22 | 2,885.56 - 2,982.44 |
| GC | 4,519.60 | 4,461.78 - 4,577.42 | 4,403.97 - 4,635.23 |
| CL | 93.57 | 90.65 - 96.49 | 87.74 - 99.40 |
Volatility snapshot:
- VIX: 15.77
- VXN: 23.27
- GVZ: 24.44
- OVX: 59.53
The equity vol backdrop is still compressed. That usually rewards patience inside the 1SD range, but it also means a clean acceptance outside the band can force fast repositioning.
Higher-timeframe expected-move alerts:
- ES is above its Q2 +1SD reference.
- NQ is above its Q2 +2SD reference.
- RTY is above its Q2 +1SD reference.
That is not automatically bearish. It means the market is extended enough that entries need better confirmation and cleaner invalidation.
Latest available gamma flip levels:
| Symbol | Price Area | Gamma Flip | Read |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| SPY | 708.00 | 708.00 | Directly on flip |
| QQQ | 646.30 | 646.00 | Positive above flip |
| SPX | 7,102.95 | 7,105.00 | Just below flip |
| NDX | 26,569 | 26,570 | Just below flip |
| IWM | 276.55 | 277.00 | Just below flip |
| NVDA | 200.07 | 200.00 | Positive above flip |
| MSFT | 418.94 | 420.00 | Below flip |
| AAPL | 272.93 | 272.50 | Positive above flip |
| AMZN | 247.71 | 247.50 | Positive above flip |
| TSLA | 392.71 | 392.50 | Positive above flip |
| DIA | 493.45 | 479.43 | Positive above flip |
| XLF | 52.52 | 50.90 | Positive above flip |
| RUT | 2,786 | 2,785 | Positive above flip |
Gamma takeaway:
The market is sitting near important regime boundaries. SPY/QQQ and several mega-cap leaders are constructive, but SPX/NDX/IWM were still close enough to their flip areas that a small move can change the hedging environment quickly.
Geopolitical risk:
The main risk remains energy. U.S.-Iran talks around the Strait of Hormuz are still a market input, and oil continues to trade like the macro pressure valve. If crude accepts above tomorrow’s CL 1SD upper zone near 96.49, I would expect equities to become more sensitive to yields and inflation language again.
Big earnings / AI catalysts:
- HPE was today’s major AI infrastructure confirmation.
- PANW reported after the close and is important for cybersecurity / enterprise AI security demand.
- AVGO reports Wednesday after the close. That is the biggest remaining AI hardware / custom silicon catalyst this week.
- CRWD also reports Wednesday after the close and matters for cybersecurity sentiment.
Game plan for tomorrow:
Bull case:
ES holds above 7,564, NQ holds above 30,374, RTY stays above 2,909, and CL fails to accept above 96.49. That would keep the tape constructive and allow buyers to keep pressing toward the upper 1SD bands.
Bear case:
NQ rejects near 31,123, ES loses 7,564, or crude breaks higher through 96.49. That combination would shift the session from continuation into digestion or a sharper mean-reversion trade.
Most important level cluster:
- NQ 31,123 upper 1SD
- ES 7,690 upper 1SD
- CL 96.49 upper 1SD
- RTY 2,909 lower 1SD
Bottom line:
The tape is bullish, but not carefree. AI leadership is still doing the heavy lifting, small caps helped today, and volatility remains contained. The risk is that NQ is now stretched against higher-timeframe expected-move references while crude and geopolitics are still active.
Trade the reaction at the levels. Don’t marry the headline.
Not financial advice. 
Education
AMZN – Triple Bottom at HVLAMZN is consolidating after a sharp pullback from the May highs, and price is now sitting on 257.5 – HVL — the gamma flip / regime pivot.
Over the past month, the stock has tested this zone three times , forming a clear triple bottom at the HVL level. Each dip found support near 255 – P1 and bounced — a technical pattern that aligns with the strongest put wall and the GEX regime boundary below spot.
With price holding above 257.5 – HVL , AMZN remains inside a positive GEX regime — but the setup is fragile until the triple bottom holds on a closing basis.
🔶 Regime Context 🔶
257.5 – HVL is the regime pivot — the level where net gamma flips. Price is currently resting directly on this line after three successful tests, keeping AMZN structurally above negative gamma territory.
A clean loss of HVL would shift the stock back into a more reactive GEX environment, with 255 – P1 as the first major put wall below.
🔶 Options Structure Context 🔶
👉 275 – C1 — highest call NETGEX wall; primary upside target if the HVL base holds
👉 257.5 – HVL — regime pivot / triple bottom support zone
If 275 – C1 is cleared with acceptance, price would enter the positive gamma extension zone — opening gamma squeeze potential toward the next call wall above.
🔶 Downside Structure 🔶
👉 255 – P1 — strongest put wall; floor of the triple bottom pattern
👉 257.5 – HVL — must hold to keep the positive GEX regime intact
The 200 SMA is trending upward just below this zone, adding moving-average confluence to the 255–257.5 support cluster.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
CALL$ 38.9% means call options at an equivalent distance from spot are priced 38.9% higher than the corresponding puts — this is call pricing skew , reflecting moderate upside demand despite the recent pullback.
On the Options Oscillator, the green histogram is building at the right edge — call pricing skew is increasing as price stabilizes at HVL.
IVRank 24.2
IVx 34.9
CALL$ 38.9% — call pricing skew
Implied move ±1.79% (±4.6)
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
275 – C1 — primary call wall / recovery target
257.5 – HVL — regime pivot; triple bottom support
255 – P1 — put wall floor; loss opens deeper downside
For now, AMZN is sitting on HVL after a triple bottom — the key question is whether this base holds and momentum can rebuild toward 275 – C1 .
The key question is simple: can price hold 257.5 – HVL on a closing basis — or does the triple bottom fail and price retest 255 – P1 ? Chipotle: Triangle Breakdown?Chipotle Mexican Grill has consolidated all year. Is it ready for another push to the downside?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since late April. CMG remained above roughly $32 until it fell through support yesterday. That could be viewed as a bearish triangle breakdown.
Second, the burrito chain made successively lower highs since October. Its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has also stayed below its 200-day SMA. Those signals may be consistent with a long-term downtrend.
Third, Bollinger Bandwidth recently narrowed but is now starting to rise. That may suggest a period of price compression is ending.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. That may be consistent with short-term bearishness.
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In my framework, two consecutively broken Windfall barriers originating from the same region form one of the strongest bullish signals . When price later retraces back to the second broken barrier, I view that as a high-quality entry opportunity.
We are currently at such a potential entry point. Price has also recently interacted with the orange support line. This line is essentially a modified lower Bollinger Band, set to 50 periods and slightly smoothed, with filtering applied to reduce the impact of extreme outlier moves.
According to @EdgeTools, mean reversion after lower-band penetration produced statistically significant results, especially for long trades. See the related idea for more details.
Although I use the modified lower Bollinger Band as a supporting signal within the entry framework, I do not use the Bollinger mean as my target. Instead, I am aiming for the center median line of the newly formed pitchfork.
Because price history widens over time, pivot B had to be migrated to the left to preserve the proper slope of the median lines. If pivot C is correct, then price should have a statistical probability of around 80% of reaching the next median line.
For the target level and maturity duration, I copied the initial impulse leg and projected it from point C. In my experience, price often tends to mimic the slope and flow of the first major action.
On a lower timeframe, I also see the possibility of a pullback toward the local trend barrier, which could provide a more refined entry opportunity around 73,100 .
Long 
US 100 Index – Can US Data Challenge the Rally?The US 100 index breezed through the psychological 30000 level on Wednesday last week as part of a run of 8 consecutive up days in a row as momentum and sentiment towards AI stocks combined to set several new record all-time highs, culminating in a close on Friday at 30340.
Despite a brief wobble to start June, after concerns rose amongst traders that US-Iran peace talks may have been stalled by Israel’s deeper incursion into Lebanon, the US 100 eventually extended the run to 9 up days in a row by posting a more subdued gain of 0.5% yesterday. This move was supported by comments from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang who dismissed concerns over the disruptive force of AI, while the world’s largest company also announced it was entering the PC market in a direct challenge to Intel and AMD, and will run Microsoft’s windows for Arm operating system (Bloomberg).
Looking forward, with the US 100 trading down 0.2% at 30425 at time of writing (0645 BST), the focus for traders may shift to updates on the health of the US economy, and more specifically on the resilience of the labour market. Tomorrow’s US ISM Services PMI survey will provide an important update on how service activity, which is the main driver of growth within the US economy, is performing in the face of rising inflation, while Friday’s crucial Non-farm payrolls release will highlight if the jobs market is maintaining its recent run of resilience in the face of mounting challenges created by the Iran conflict. All of which could impact the thinking of Federal Reserve policymakers in deciding their next move on interest rates when they meet on June 17th.
Technical Update: The Trend Continues …..
From the March 31st low of 22774 into yesterday’s new all‑time high at 30656, the US 100 index has now rallied more than 34.5% across 45 trading days. During this advance, only 11 sessions have closed lower than they opened the day, producing a red candle on the chart below. This continues to indicate that positive sentiment remains in place, with no sign yet of an extended phase of weakness developing.
Of course, a positive trend does not guarantee further gains.
Unexpected developments can still trigger a sharp correction or a shift in sentiment. With that in mind, ahead of this week’s US data releases it may remain useful for traders to identify key support and resistance levels that if broken, may guide the next directional themes.
Potential Resistance Levels:
While previous all‑time highs have not always acted as significant barriers during this latest US 100 rally, the most recent extreme could still attract attention. Yesterday’s peak of 30656 may act as the first resistance point, and how price behaves around this level on a closing basis could be important. A closing break above 30656 might lead to further attempts at price strength.
If upside breaks above 30656 were to materialise, the prevailing uptrend may continue to generate new highs. In that case, focus could shift to 30968, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension, and potentially even 31787, which is the 161.8% extension.
Potential Support Levels:
Given the scale of the recent rally, it could be argued that over‑extended upside conditions are present, which may lead to a period of weakness. The first key support stands at 30178, a level which is equal to half of the latest phase of price strength. If downside momentum begins to build, this could be the initial level traders focus on.
A closing break below 30178 could open scope for a deeper correction phase, exposing potential to test 29846, which is the 38.2% retracement, and then 29369, which is the deeper 61.8% retracement of the latest advance.
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