TSLA Daily Chart: Uptrend Exhaustion + Signs of Seller Control + Critical Retest or Continuation Lower Ahead
Tesla (TSLA) enjoyed a powerful bullish swing throughout much of 2024-2025, fueled by strong demand, accelerated price action, and impressive extensions that carried the stock toward the $500 level. This extended advance reflected robust buyer conviction and momentum.
However, several technical developments now indicate fading upside momentum and a potential shift in control toward sellers.
Aggressive Downward Leg After Peak Rejection
Following the approach to ~$500, a decisive new leg lower emerged, erasing the majority of those prior gains with notable conviction. This decline halted at fresh support in the ~225 area, where buyers eventually stepped in to defend price.
The speed, volume, and lack of meaningful retracement during this drop were classic signs of aggressive selling pressure overwhelming residual demand.
Weaker Recovery Attempt & Diminishing Momentum
The subsequent leg higher revealed early signs of exhaustion and buyer fatigue. Compared to the prior advance:
Pullbacks were more frequent and deeper.
The recovery required significantly more time (approximately 4-5x longer) to reclaim previous highs.
No new meaningful extensions materialized beyond the prior peak area.
This slower, choppier advance with reduced conviction is a textbook indication that demand is weakening while supply begins to assert itself.
Prolonged Trading Range at the Second Top
At this retested high zone, price has transitioned into an extended consolidation/trading range. The lack of strong follow-through buying, combined with repeated failures to generate sustained upside momentum, suggests sellers are accumulating positions and demand is not yet aggressive enough to reclaim control.
This phase reflects a classic battle between supply and demand, often seen in distribution or early reversal structures.
Current Situation – Neutral-Bearish Bias with Key Confirmation Levels
The overall structure points to a neutral-to-bearish posture in the near term. We are likely in a transitional phase where the balance of power is tilting toward sellers, but confirmation is still required.
Key scenarios to monitor:
A retest of local resistance (near the recent highs or overhead supply zone) could provide a higher-probability area for rejection and downside continuation.
Alternatively, an immediate ease of movement lower—ideally with increased conviction and volume—would confirm seller dominance and target a retest of the prior lows around 225.
My Bias & Plan
Primary expectation: Continued pressure with a likely retest of overhead resistance followed by rejection, or a direct breakdown signaling deeper continuation toward stronger support below (potentially revisiting the 225 zone or lower).
At present, the price action suggests we remain in a Phase B-like environment (accumulation/distribution), where patience is essential. Chasing the current consolidation carries lower probability.
I prefer to wait for clearer confirmation—either a failed retest of resistance with bearish price behavior or decisive downside momentum—before considering directional exposure.
Monitor closely for signs of further weakening (e.g., failed rallies, increasing downside volume, or bearish patterns). The resolution around current levels or on a retest will provide significantly higher-probability information about the next major leg—potentially lower until more robust demand emerges at lower supports.
Patience remains key here. The coming sessions/weeks should reveal whether this is a temporary pause or the early stages of a broader trend shift.
Tesla (TSLA) enjoyed a powerful bullish swing throughout much of 2024-2025, fueled by strong demand, accelerated price action, and impressive extensions that carried the stock toward the $500 level. This extended advance reflected robust buyer conviction and momentum.
However, several technical developments now indicate fading upside momentum and a potential shift in control toward sellers.
Aggressive Downward Leg After Peak Rejection
Following the approach to ~$500, a decisive new leg lower emerged, erasing the majority of those prior gains with notable conviction. This decline halted at fresh support in the ~225 area, where buyers eventually stepped in to defend price.
The speed, volume, and lack of meaningful retracement during this drop were classic signs of aggressive selling pressure overwhelming residual demand.
Weaker Recovery Attempt & Diminishing Momentum
The subsequent leg higher revealed early signs of exhaustion and buyer fatigue. Compared to the prior advance:
Pullbacks were more frequent and deeper.
The recovery required significantly more time (approximately 4-5x longer) to reclaim previous highs.
No new meaningful extensions materialized beyond the prior peak area.
This slower, choppier advance with reduced conviction is a textbook indication that demand is weakening while supply begins to assert itself.
Prolonged Trading Range at the Second Top
At this retested high zone, price has transitioned into an extended consolidation/trading range. The lack of strong follow-through buying, combined with repeated failures to generate sustained upside momentum, suggests sellers are accumulating positions and demand is not yet aggressive enough to reclaim control.
This phase reflects a classic battle between supply and demand, often seen in distribution or early reversal structures.
Current Situation – Neutral-Bearish Bias with Key Confirmation Levels
The overall structure points to a neutral-to-bearish posture in the near term. We are likely in a transitional phase where the balance of power is tilting toward sellers, but confirmation is still required.
Key scenarios to monitor:
A retest of local resistance (near the recent highs or overhead supply zone) could provide a higher-probability area for rejection and downside continuation.
Alternatively, an immediate ease of movement lower—ideally with increased conviction and volume—would confirm seller dominance and target a retest of the prior lows around 225.
My Bias & Plan
Primary expectation: Continued pressure with a likely retest of overhead resistance followed by rejection, or a direct breakdown signaling deeper continuation toward stronger support below (potentially revisiting the 225 zone or lower).
At present, the price action suggests we remain in a Phase B-like environment (accumulation/distribution), where patience is essential. Chasing the current consolidation carries lower probability.
I prefer to wait for clearer confirmation—either a failed retest of resistance with bearish price behavior or decisive downside momentum—before considering directional exposure.
Monitor closely for signs of further weakening (e.g., failed rallies, increasing downside volume, or bearish patterns). The resolution around current levels or on a retest will provide significantly higher-probability information about the next major leg—potentially lower until more robust demand emerges at lower supports.
Patience remains key here. The coming sessions/weeks should reveal whether this is a temporary pause or the early stages of a broader trend shift.
ノート
We're finally at a local important level. We're waiting to see if we have any demand left to retest the previous local Resistance or we will just drop below with a possibility of reaching Support. My Bias is that we don't have any demand left unless sellers are exhausted too. We'll probably keep dropping from here
ノート
Still down. Next level $360 but I'm wondering if we'll retest the $300. My entry point was at $400 shorting this MFノート
Read more details here: wyckofflabs.wordpress.com/2026/03/23/tsla-daily-chart-analysis-2026-full-wyckoff-breakdown-by-wyckoff-labs/
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。