The macro yield landscape is undergoing a massive regime transition
We are moving from the vertical momentum of 2022 to 2023 into an ultra compressed, multi year consolidation phase
Both the
US02Y & US10Y are choking at critical structural boundaries
Let’s dive in👇
The Short End:
The 2Yr Yield (US02Y) is printing a textbook macro pennant/descending wedge following its massive flagpole run
Price is highly compressed between two converging trendlines, currently testing the Red Moving Average & struggling to secure clean weekly closes
TheUS02Y structural anchor remains the orange horizontal level
Historically, breaching this floor required systemic shocks (like the 2023 banking crisis)
Now, price is compressing above it, signaling a higher-for longer baseline priced by the market
The Long End:
The 10-Year Yield (US10Y) is locked in a pristine symmetrical triangle
It captures the pure tug of war between fiscal supply pressures (rising lower rail) & cooling growth expectations (descending upper rail)
It’s currently seeing a range top rejection
Timeline & Trigger:
This compression reaches an apex pointing to a major breakout SOME TIME late 2026 / early 2027
A breakdown below the lower rails targets 3.25%ish on macro cooling; a breakout above signals fiscal/inflation reacceleration toward 4.80%+
Watch the apex
We are moving from the vertical momentum of 2022 to 2023 into an ultra compressed, multi year consolidation phase
Both the
US02Y & US10Y are choking at critical structural boundariesLet’s dive in👇
The Short End:
The 2Yr Yield (
US02Y) is printing a textbook macro pennant/descending wedge following its massive flagpole runPrice is highly compressed between two converging trendlines, currently testing the Red Moving Average & struggling to secure clean weekly closes
The
US02Y structural anchor remains the orange horizontal levelHistorically, breaching this floor required systemic shocks (like the 2023 banking crisis)
Now, price is compressing above it, signaling a higher-for longer baseline priced by the market
The Long End:
The 10-Year Yield (
US10Y) is locked in a pristine symmetrical triangleIt captures the pure tug of war between fiscal supply pressures (rising lower rail) & cooling growth expectations (descending upper rail)
It’s currently seeing a range top rejection
Timeline & Trigger:
This compression reaches an apex pointing to a major breakout SOME TIME late 2026 / early 2027
A breakdown below the lower rails targets 3.25%ish on macro cooling; a breakout above signals fiscal/inflation reacceleration toward 4.80%+
Watch the apex
トレード稼働中
While our short term calls, thinking the trend would slow down before continuing, our macro view is 100%.We will post a bit more on this soon.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。