Long
XAUUSD — Daily Market StructureGold is currently trading around 4,406 after a recent bullish recovery from the 3,985–4,065 area.
The higher-timeframe structure shows an important reaction zone above current price:
D1 Bearish Order Block: approximately 4,550–4,630
Current price: around 4,406
D1 Fair Value Gap: approximately 4,140–4,220
Recent structure: bullish recovery from the lower demand area
Price may continue to seek liquidity toward the D1 bearish order block. However, the reaction around 4,550–4,630 will be important to evaluate whether buyers can maintain momentum or sellers regain control.
A deeper retracement into the D1 FVG around 4,140–4,220 could also provide an area to watch for a potential reaction, depending on lower-timeframe confirmation.
Key focus:
Watch how price behaves at the marked D1 OB and D1 FVG rather than assuming a predetermined move. Confirmation from market structure and price action can help define the next high-probability scenario.
Educational market analysis only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk. USD/JPY: a long into the FOMC window (demand zone)USD/JPY has dropped from 164 and is sitting in a demand zone that has been tested before and held. My reference points:
Entry: the blue zone at ~153.46
Stop: below the zone at ~151.64
First target: 155.29 (1R)
Second target: 157.11 (2R)
The trigger for this one is the calendar, not (only) the chart. This is a setup for the Pre-FOMC window on Wednesday, not a standing trade. If the move plays out into that event, fine, if not, the idea is discarded when the window closes.
Why long USD/JPY specifically: the setup is essentially a short-JPY read through the dollar side. The macro score is currently -4, which reads mildly negative against risk — but the trade is only open for the event window, and that gauge can flip around the meeting. I am not trading a macro call; I am trading a strong technical pattern into a scheduled catalyst, with the position only valid for that window.
The zone is pre-tested and holding. Structure first, event second, guard rails around it.
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
Long 
Long
Liquidity Sweep Before Recovery
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure after strong U.S. jobs data increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions may still provide some safe-haven support. Markets now turn to PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11 for the next inflation signals.
Technical Analysis
On H4, Gold remains in a broader bearish correction after the recent BOS and strong decline from the 4,600 area.
Price is now near 4,389, with the main downside liquidity sitting around 4,275–4,305. A sweep into this support could complete the current bearish wave and create room for a recovery.
The first upside resistance is the 4,490–4,575 FVG, followed by the stronger 4,590–4,615 OB + POC.
Important Key Levels
4,665–4,695 — BSL / Major Resistance
4,590–4,615 — OB + POC
4,490–4,575 — FVG
4,275–4,305 — Liquidity / Main Support
Trading Scenario
Buy priority comes after a sweep into 4,275–4,305 followed by clear H4 bullish confirmation.
Target: 4,490–4,575 first, then 4,590–4,615.
Invalidation: H4 acceptance below 4,275.
Overall View
The H4 structure remains corrective, so I would not chase buys at the current price. A deeper move into liquidity could offer a cleaner area for the next recovery wave.
Will Gold sweep 4,300 before starting the rebound? Long 
XAUUSD Short: Breakdown from Ascending Channel Signals DownsideHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (2H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously traded inside a descending channel before breaking higher and forming an ascending channel. Price then moved toward the 4,520 Supply Zone, where sellers rejected the upside.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading below 4,520 while holding above the 4,390 Demand Zone. The rejection from the Supply Zone and descending structure suggest further downside.
As long as XAUUSD remains below 4,520 and respects the descending structure, the bearish scenario remains valid. A continuation lower could push price toward the 4,390 Demand Zone (TP1). However, a breakout and close above 4,520 would weaken the bearish outlook and increase the possibility of further upside. Manage your risk! Short 
BTCUSDT: 78,000 Support Retest Could Fuel Another RallyHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT previously traded inside a downward channel before breaking above the structure and shifting bullish. Price then formed a range before breaking higher and developing an upward channel toward the 81,100 Resistance Zone.
Currently, BTCUSDT is trading below the 81,100 Resistance Zone while holding above the 78,000 Support Zone and respecting the upward channel. The recent test of the upper channel suggests a possible pullback toward support before another move higher.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as BTCUSDT remains above the 78,000 Support Zone and respects the upward channel, the bullish scenario remains valid. A successful retest of support could push price back toward the 81,100 Resistance Zone (TP1).
However, a breakdown and close below 78,000 would weaken the bullish outlook and increase the risk of further downside.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. 
Long
BTCUSD Bearish Setup — Rejection From Major Supply ZoneBitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently trading around $79,430 on the 1D timeframe. The chart shows a strong reaction from the lower demand area, followed by a move into a major supply/resistance zone around $82,000–$84,000.
The current structure suggests that BTC is facing selling pressure near the upper supply zone, making a bearish continuation scenario possible if buyers fail to reclaim the resistance area.
🔴 Key Resistance / Supply
$82,000–$84,000: Major supply and selling-pressure zone.
A clear rejection from this region could confirm that sellers are defending the highs.
A strong daily close above $84K would weaken the bearish setup and could open the door toward higher resistance.
🟡 Key Reaction Level
Around $76,000 is an important reaction level.
If BTC loses this level with strong momentum, it could indicate that the recent bullish recovery is weakening and sellers are gaining control.
🔵 Key Support Areas
$72,000: First important support.
$68,000–$69,000: Intermediate demand area.
$64,000: Main projected bearish target shown on the chart.
$61,000–$62,000: Additional support zone.
$58,384: Major strong-low area.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
The chart's projected path suggests:
$82K–$84K rejection → $76K reaction level → $72K support → $68K–$69K → $64K target
The $64K region is particularly important because it aligns with the marked expected target and a previous demand/liquidity area.
⚠️ What Would Invalidate the Bearish Idea?
If BTC breaks above the $82K–$84K supply zone and establishes a strong daily close above it, the bearish setup becomes weaker. Traders should then reassess the structure rather than blindly holding a short bias.
🧠 Trading Logic
The main reason for the bearish outlook is the combination of:
Rejection from a major supply zone
Visible selling pressure near recent highs
Resistance around $82K–$84K
Important reaction level near $76K
Multiple lower support/liquidity zones
Projected move toward the $64K area
Risk management is essential. This is a technical analysis scenario, not a guaranteed prediction. Wait for confirmation around the marked levels before taking any trade Long 
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 3 From Buy ZoneXAUUSD — Bullish Wave 3 From Buy Zone
Gold is building a bullish recovery structure after completing the previous bearish wave near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be preparing for a new upside continuation while price is holding around the Buy zone wave 3.
The key idea is simple: gold may be forming wave (2) correction now, and if buyers defend the current buy zone, wave (3) can start pushing toward the upper liquidity levels.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold reacted strongly from the previous low near 4,280–4,300, showing that sellers lost momentum and buyers started to rebuild structure.
Price is now trading around 4,411, right above the Buy zone wave 3 near 4,390–4,410. This zone is important because it may act as the base for the next bullish impulse.
If this support holds, gold may continue higher toward 4,441, 4,476, and the strong liquidity zone near 4,510. A clean break above 4,510 would strengthen the bullish continuation toward the Resistance Fibonacci + FVG / Sell zone wave 4 around 4,585–4,605.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,411
◌ Buy zone wave 3: 4,390–4,410
◌ First liquidity: 4,441
◌ Second liquidity: 4,476
◌ Strong liquidity: 4,510
◌ Resistance Fibonacci + FVG: 4,585–4,605
◌ Final wave 5 target: 4,725–4,740
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,360
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart shows a possible bullish Elliott Wave recovery.
Wave (1) formed after gold bounced from the lower demand area.
Wave (2) is now correcting back into the 4,390–4,410 buy zone.
If this zone holds, wave (3) may push price toward 4,510 and then 4,585–4,605.
After that, wave (4) may create a short pullback.
The final wave (5) target remains near 4,725–4,740.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys too late. The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation around the buy zone, then follow the bullish structure step by step.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,390–4,410 if price gives bullish confirmation from the Buy zone wave 3
Stop Loss: Below 4,360
Take Profit 1: 4,441
Take Profit 2: 4,476–4,510
Take Profit 3: 4,585–4,605
Take Profit 4: 4,725–4,740
Alternative entry
If gold breaks above 4,510 and retests this level as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,585–4,605.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,360 and fails to reclaim the buy zone. In that case, wave (2) may extend lower and the bullish setup needs more confirmation.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view remains bullish while gold holds above 4,390–4,410. The market is showing a recovery structure, and the current pullback may be only a correction before wave (3) continues higher.
If buyers defend the buy zone, gold may continue toward 4,441, 4,510, then the larger upside zone around 4,585–4,605. The bigger Elliott target remains near 4,725–4,740.
Do you think gold will start wave (3) from this buy zone, or retest lower before the next rally? Long 
Long
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