XAU/USD 14 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed according to yesterday's analysis dated 14 July 2026 where I mentioned in alternative scenario that due to H4 internal structure being bearish, price could potentially target strong internal low and print a bearish iBOS.
Price subsequently printed a bearish iBOS and bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within a established internal range, however, I shall monitor price action with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,983.545.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart:
Long
DXY | Corrective Structure Under the MicroscopeDXY | Corrective Structure Under the Microscope: Leading Diagonal or Complex Zigzag? 🌀
Greetings, fellow wave practitioners.
The Aggressive Scenario assumes that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has entered a higher-degree corrective phase from its major peak. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave (A) may currently be developing through one of two valid structural paths.
The first possibility is a Leading Diagonal, a motive structure that fully satisfies Elliott Wave rules and guidelines while matching the current character of price action. If this interpretation is correct, the present recovery should eventually be followed by one more decline to complete Wave (a) and finalize the entire Leading Diagonal.
The second possibility is that Wave (A) is evolving as a Double Zigzag (W-X-Y) or even a Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z). In this case, the market is still building a complex corrective structure that may require considerably more time than a simple Zigzag before reaching completion.
The common denominator between both counts is the expectation of a three-wave corrective structure on the higher degree. As long as the initial invalidation level remains intact, both scenarios continue to be technically valid.
From a structural perspective, the next decisive signal would be a break above Wave (B), followed by the development of another corrective pattern. Such behavior would provide the first meaningful confirmation that buyers are regaining control and would significantly strengthen the case for a long-term bullish phase in the U.S. Dollar Index.
At this stage, the objective is not to predict the future with certainty. The objective is to identify which Elliott Wave structure the market is constructing. Once that structure is confirmed, the long-term roadmap becomes substantially clearer.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 📊🌀
U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Jun 5
The DXY Time Paradox: Monday Engineering & Elliott Wave Dissecti
CAD Update- Trade JournalHigher-timeframe structure remains bullish. Through higher-timeframe mapping, the trend was confirmed, allowing me to continue positioning buys in line with the confirmed order flow.
Once price gave the mid-term shift and broke the lower high, bullish continuation became the expectation. Since then, price has delivered exactly as anticipated, reaching my take-profit objectives and securing profits.
If you look closely within the current range, you’ll notice the two most recent shallow black boxes. The original plan was to scale into the position with four entries, adding as price confirmed strength. The small lightning bolt icons mark where those additional positions were supposed to be executed.
Unfortunately, I was exhausted after several late nights studying the charts and missed those add-on opportunities. Even with the missed scale-ins, the overall analysis remained valid, price respected the mapped structure, and the targets were achieved.
Now it’s on to the next phase. A new range will form, new liquidity will develop, and new high-probability points of interest will present themselves. Until then, patience remains key.
The edge isn’t chasing price—it’s tracking structure and waiting for the next opportunity.
On to the next mapping. 📈
Remember: Patience is key
Tracking remains the edge
“It always was my sitting.” — Jesse Livermore
Fiserv, Inc 80% drop in 16 months! - July 202SYMBOL: BMV:FISV | DIRECTION: NEUTRAL | TIMEFRAME: Weekly
Published: July 2026
Ever get the feeling you’re not loved?
Not twelve months ago Fiserv was a $127.4billion market cap. Then they went on a money spending spree. Perhaps they got a good teaser rate on that new shinny credit card?
Today at $26.90 billion market cap and a $29.31 billion debt, Fiserv has more in common with a penny stock than pretending to masquerade as an established business.
While $29 billion is a massive number, credit rating agencies and institutional investors aren't overly panicked for a few key reasons. Fiserv's heavy debt load boils down to a classic private equity backstory and a specific business model.
1. The $17 Billion Inheritance (The First Data Merger)
2. Aggressive FinTech Acquisitions & Share Buybacks. Doh.
So, it’s all roses?
Not quite.
The collapse of Fiserv’s stock price (from its peak near $170 down to the $50 range) over the past 12 to 18 months was triggered by a corporate "perfect storm." The company was hit by a massive earnings shock, sudden management turnover, and the revelation that previous leadership had been artificially boosting short-term profits at the expense of long-term health. And I thought Crypto bros were king of the fixer uppers.
In fact, if the business continues to operate as it has done recently, then the future is bleak. Are you an employee? Brush up that CV before your co-workers read this post.. the chart is printing red flags on every corner for those that care to look.
Fiserv has dropped seventy three percent from its fifty two week high. The chart looks like someone took a sledgehammer to it. Lower highs, lower lows, with price now sitting at the third percentile of its annual range. The selling pressure remains genuine. Volume is expanding on down moves, which means the people doing the dumping know something. I.e. the business is.. (insert your preferred expletive).
And yet.
Daily through weekly charts print a strong regular bullish divergence. 16 from18 oscillators are in agreement. RSI on the weekly has collapsed to 34.9, deeply oversold territory. The price structure has triggered an internal balance condition that historically rotates upward with high probability. The tension is real: short term reversal mechanics are lining up against a backdrop of structural decay.
Where’s the money making part?
Bear with me..
On the above 6 day chart Fiserv Inc has triggered a high probability rotation setup whilst maintaining an intact downtrend structure. Three reasons now exist to watch for a near term trade, not an investment.
They include:
1. Daily through weekly regular bullish divergence.
The momentum indicator has fallen deeper than price, a classic reversal signal. Does the crowd ever believe a reversal when the macro picture is this bleak?
2. Internal balance trigger with high probability condition.
Price has rotated into a zone where historical behaviour favours upward movement. This is a near term trade structure, not a fundamental recovery. The setup exists independent of whether the downtrend resumes.
3. Weekly RSI at thirty four point nine: deeply oversold.
The weekly momentum oscillator sits in territory that has historically preceded at least a corrective bounce.
Now the danger:
One caveat worth acknowledging: the bigger picture remains structurally ugly. A breakdown of annual moving average across most equities has historically preceded ten or more years of bear market behaviour. Fiserv has already done the damage. This setup is a trade into what may be a secular downtrend, not a reversal of it. The probability of a move is high. The probability of this becoming an investment is low. You are trading gravity on pause, not gravity reversed.
Annual moving average breakdown
Targets
1st and 2nd targets are basically market structure that oddly enough align with Fibonacci levels:
1st: 160% at $140 area
2nd: 200% at $160 area
The crowd
The consensus is divided. The technical analysts see oversold conditions and are whispering about bounces. The macro observers are silent, having already written this one off as a victim of whatever regime is now in charge. Most traders will sit in the fear of the bigger picture and miss the counter move entirely. They are wrong about timing, not direction. This trade exists in the gap between "this is a dying stock" and "this is oversold this week." Both things are true.
The chart started it. I am simply reporting back.
Good luck.
Ww
Type: Intraday to swing | Timeframe: Weekly
===================================================
Disclaimer
Isn't it amazing you're getting this for cheap? Top notch quality info without cost, what's my angle? You're in luck, I just like studying data. A study that'll continue until the overgrown garden demands my attention.
In the meantime, this idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Equities involve significant risk. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 
Long
Bitcoin Daily Analysis 13 July 2026Hi everyone! The weekly candle has closed, so let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis, moving from the monthly chart all the way down to our 1-hour entry triggers.
Monthly Timeframe
First, let's look at the monthly chart. Last month's red candle was incredibly powerful, driving the price straight down to close inside a major support zone. For the current monthly candle, we still have 18 days left until the close. Given how massive the previous bearish candle was and how it forced the current month into a strong support area, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this month's candle end up relatively small, rather than repeating the aggressive trend of the past months. But of course, the market is always unpredictable, so our best approach is to map out our scenarios and stay prepared.
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly timeframe, two weeks ago, we saw a candle that strongly engulfed its predecessor; while there was some selling pressure within that candle, buyers ultimately stepped in and forced a close above the red candle's open. However, the weekly candle that just closed shows clear signs of bullish exhaustion. It printed a tiny body with both upper and lower shadows. Therefore, alongside the overall weekly downtrend, we still aren't seeing any real strength from the buyers.
Daily Timeframe
The last two daily candles developed over Saturday and Sunday, so they carried very low volume and don’t offer much analytical value. However, if we were to pick out a clue, it would be the long upper shadow and the red body pointing downward.
4-Hour & 1-Hour Timeframes (Execution)
Everything becomes much clearer on the 4-hour chart. With the reopening of global markets, price got hit with an incredibly sharp rejection from the $64,396 resistance, accompanied by strong volume.
We have a few execution scenarios for opening positions now:
Active Short Scenario: If you opened a short position on the 1-hour candle break below the floor of the box we discussed yesterday ($63,753) and placed your stop loss above the ceiling of that range, your trade is highly likely still open. Depending on your risk-to-reward strategy, you should be locking in profits here.
New Short Setups: Right now, price is sitting on a 1-hour local support. You could aggressively enter a short position upon a breakdown of this level, placing the stop loss above the newly formed 1-hour swing high—though in my opinion, this is highly risky. A much safer alternative is to sit tight and wait for a confirmed break below $61,755 to trigger your short.
Long Scenario: For longs, there are two ways to play it. The first is to wait for price to trade back up to $64,396.5 and enter on a clean resistance breakout. The second, earlier entry would be if price establishes a bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows on the 4-hour or 1-hour timeframe before reaching that key resistance. This earlier setup might be preferred because the sellers showed immense strength at that $64,396.5 zone—causing severe consolidation followed by a violent rejection—meaning that waiting for a breakout there might end up giving us an uncomfortably wide stop loss.
I hope you enjoyed today's multi-timeframe update and find it useful. As always, make sure to keep your risk and money management in check! XAU/USD 13 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price is remains to be trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action.
Alternative scenario:
Due to H4 internal structure being bearish, price could potentially target strong internal low and print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
Long
Copper Futures:The Structural Turning Point of a New Macro CycleHG1! | Macro Structural Convergence and Transition to a High-Velocity Expansion Phase
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1. Structural Hypothesis
This chart is not merely a technical analysis or a collection of price targets.
This study is based on a proprietary structural model developed to analyze the market through the convergence of price, time, structural behavior, structural compression, structural complexity, movement logic, and the framework of price-time coordination across all timeframes.
All scenarios, validations, and potential pathways presented in this report are directly derived from the interaction of these components and are built upon a coherent and measurable structure.
From the Macro Cycle Base at the price of 2.1420 in April 2020, the market initiated its first accelerated directional movement and completed the first expansion phase of the cycle by forming Pulse 1 at the 4.8095 level in April 2022.
From that point, the market did not enter a conventional correction; rather, it entered a multi-layered structural reorganization process; a process that, while preserving the integrity of the primary trend, has internally organized the required energy, time, and balance for the next stage of the cycle’s expansion.
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2. Dual Compression Architecture
The corrective behavior of the market throughout this cycle is not a random sequence.
This structure consists of two primary compression phases connected by an internal transition vector (Link 1), which together form the corrective architecture of the entire cycle.
Compression Phase 01 was completed over 687 days and ultimately concluded at Node 1 and the price level of 3.8370.
Following that, an intermediate expansion with an exact ratio of 2.06 developed, establishing the medium-term liquidity high around the 5.8460 region.
The market then entered Compression Phase 02; a structure that lasted exactly 345 days.
The precise 50% time ratio between the two compression phases represents one of the most important signals of temporal convergence within this model.
When symmetry between price, time, and structural behavior forms with such coherence, the market typically approaches the final zone of the reorganization process; a zone where the probability of a structural phase transition increases.
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3. Structural Decision Window
The market is now approaching one of the most important decision points of this cycle.
All upcoming pathways depend on price behavior relative to two key levels:
6.7160 → Trigger for the beginning of structural expansion
5.2460 → Structural invalidation boundary of the bullish structure
All scenarios within this study are defined based on how the market reacts to these two levels.
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4. Primary Scenario; Beginning of Macro Pulse 3 (High Probability)
If the market can break above the 6.7160 level with sufficient speed, strength, and momentum before August 5, 2026, alternative corrective structures, including triple correction scenarios, will lose their structural validity.
Under these conditions, the official beginning of Macro Pulse 3 from the current structural low will be confirmed.
The initial targets of this expansion are located within the 19.7 to 21.7 range.
If capital inflow continues, trend strength is maintained, and the structure continues its expansionary behavior, further extension toward the mathematical 261.80% coordinate at the price of 47.5 can also be evaluated within the framework of this model.
In the maximum scenario, if the market structure continues to demonstrate expansion capability, participation from major capital flows, and sustained momentum, the 361.80% level at the price of 104.1 will represent the final conceivable expansion zone for Macro Pulse 3.
This level is not a guaranteed target; rather, it represents the maximum structural expansion capacity of the model under the strongest possible conditions.
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5. Alternative Scenario; Extension of the Corrective Structure (Medium Probability)
If the breakout of the 6.7160 level does not occur within the initial time window and this breakout takes place near the beginning of September 2026 or later, the structure will enter the alternative pathway.
In this case, the upward movement will no longer be considered the direct beginning of Macro Pulse 3; instead, it will function as a secondary transition vector (Link 2).
This pathway may, through an extension of the corrective duration, guide the structure toward the formation of Compression Phase 03 and reaching the maximum temporal maturity boundary in April 2028.
After completion of this process, Node 3 is expected to act as the structural origin of Macro Pulse 3, with the next directional movement beginning from that region.
All possible pathways, decision branches, and validity conditions of this scenario are defined based on the temporal and price structure shown on the chart.
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Structural Invalidation Condition (Low-Probability Scenario)
The validity of this framework will remain intact as long as the market does not violate the defined structural requirements.
The structural invalidation scenario, although considered within the model and defined as a boundary condition, currently carries a very low probability of occurrence based on the present structural configuration.
Only if the market fails to reclaim the 6.7160 level with sufficient strength within the defined timeframe and subsequently loses the structural level of 5.2460 to the downside, will the bullish framework of this model enter a state of invalidation.
However, the convergence of spatial compression, temporal symmetry, geometric relationships, structural complexity, and the coherence of price behavior in the current state indicates that the market is positioned within a zone where the probability of completing the reorganization process and initiating a new expansion phase has increased
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Conclusion
This study presents a structural framework for examining major market cycles; a framework designed to identify the relationships between price, time, structural behavior, and movement logic.
The purpose of this model is not to provide a conventional market narrative or create certainty about the future; rather, it is to define conditions in which actual market behavior can be evaluated against predefined structural formations.
Each scenario presented in this report will only remain valid if the market fulfills the structural requirements associated with it.
The validity of this framework is not measured by absolute prediction, but by the degree of alignment between actual market behavior and the structural logic of the model.
Ultimately, it is the market that reveals its own path; however, whichever path is chosen, it must remain explainable and verifiable within the framework of the structural relationships defined by this model.
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Research Signature
“Each market cycle is formed across a set of structural degrees; degrees that interact with one another hierarchically, where the coordination between them, from the highest degree to the lowest degree, shapes the final structure of movement. Within this architecture, higher degrees determine the dominant structure, while lower degrees organize themselves within the same governing structure and logic. Every movement is the result of the convergence of price, time, structural complexity, structural behavior, and movement logic across all of these degrees. This framework is the result of studying and modeling these relationships; relationships that describe the path of the market rather than impose it upon the market.”
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✍🏻 Mohsen Nirumand 
Long
Is Wave C Complete, or Is the Correction Still Unfolding?Ethereum
Following the broader structural outlook presented in the weekly analysis and the primary scenarios discussed in the daily chart, this 4-hour update focuses on the internal development of Wave C—the portion of the structure that may ultimately determine whether the higher-degree Wave (IV) correction is nearing completion.
Conservative Scenario
According to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave W appears to have completed as a Simple Zigzag, followed by Wave X as a Classic Zigzag. The market is currently developing Wave Y as a Flat Correction, with the structure so far remaining consistent with a Regular Flat.
However, until Wave C is fully completed, the possibility of the pattern extending into an Expanded Flat remains valid. For that reason, the primary focus is on the internal development of Wave C, where the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence will help determine whether the correction ends as a Regular Flat or evolves into an Expanded Flat through an extended Wave C.
If Wave Y completes as expected, the higher-degree Wave (IV) would likely come to an end, allowing the market to transition into Wave (V). Under this scenario, the next objective will be to identify the beginning of a new motive sequence and evaluate the potential strength and extension of the fifth wave.
Nevertheless, if the correction remains incomplete after Wave Y has finished, the structure may continue evolving into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z). In that case, Wave Z is not limited to a specific corrective pattern. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, it may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other valid corrective combination, provided that the structural, time, and price relationships between W, Y, and Z remain consistent with the characteristics of the completed pattern.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive interpretation presents a different structural perspective.
In this view, Wave W is considered a completed Simple Zigzag, while the rally into the previous high is labeled as Wave X. Based on this count, the market is now developing Wave Y.
Rather than forming a simple corrective pattern, Wave Y may evolve into a larger Double Three combination. As long as the internal structure of this wave remains incomplete, the end of the higher-degree Wave (IV) cannot yet be confirmed. Consequently, every bullish movement should be evaluated in terms of its internal structure, wave personality, and structural relationships before concluding that a new impulsive trend has begun.
At this stage, the most important factor is not simply where price moves next, but how it moves. The emergence of a clear five-wave impulsive advance, accompanied by a decisive breakout from the corrective channel, would significantly increase the probability that Wave (IV) has been completed. Until then, any upward movement may still prove to be corrective in nature, leaving the broader correction structurally valid.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future. It represents my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle.
What you see here is the result of years of study, research, and practical experience dedicated to understanding wave structures and the language of the market. As new waves emerge, the market continuously provides fresh information that may refine—or even reshape—the preferred wave count.
For that reason, Elliott Wave analysis is less about predicting the future and more about objectively interpreting what the market is revealing at every stage of its development.
📌 Note:
If any part of these scenarios is unclear, I encourage you to review the previous analyses attached to this publication. This study is part of an ongoing structural research project, where each analysis builds upon the foundation established by the previous ones.
🌐 Intermarket Perspective:
When appropriate, I also compare correlated and inversely correlated markets, as structural confirmation—or divergence—across related assets can provide valuable evidence in support of the preferred wave count.
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle 
Long
CADJPY Trade Journal| Bullish Delivery After HTF RebalanceHigher-timeframe structure remains bullish, with higher lows still intact within the current bullish order flow.
Price mitigated the internal structure order block (blue zone) through a liquidity wick, creating a liquidity event that produced a strong reaction. This reaction supported buy pressure and delivered aggressive bullish expansion on the lower timeframes.
From there, price remained within the previous weeks’ range and confirmed the bullish shift by mitigating the orange level, flipping lower-timeframe structure back bullish and breaking the previous lower high.
The trade is currently active, with my buy positions placed from the higher-timeframe rebalance fill.
Since then, price has continued to deliver from this area, breaking previous highs with candle-body acceptance after coming from a distribution phase. Price is currently correcting to extend delivery while filling inefficiencies around the 50% area of the discounted range.
If price fails to hold this area, I expect the market to potentially engineer further liquidity and seek deeper order blocks underneath the current engineered liquidity. However, that scenario depends on price failing to maintain its current bullish progression.
Until then, I’m following the footprints, tracking price behavior, and allowing the market to continue developing.
Patience is key.
Tracking remains the edge.
Let’s go.
