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ESTC is growing high teens percentage. Its revenue will keep on growing with volume of data stored. As queries get expensive if it queries huge amount of data.
- Fundamentally, CurrentlyESTC trade at $54.81 with a market cap of 5.67 billion and has a yearly revenue of $1.483 billion in 2025 and is expected to generate a revenue of $1.734 B
- Therefore, on a bear case, P/S multiple should at least be 5x , base case 7x and bull case 9x
- Market cap should be 8.67B (bear), $12.13 B (base) , $15B (bull)
- Potential Upside would be: 52% , 113%, 164%
- Target Stock price : $83 (bear) , $116 (base) , $144 (bull)
ESTC is growing high teens percentage. Its revenue will keep on growing with volume of data stored. As queries get expensive if it queries huge amount of data. - Fundamentally, Currently
ESTC trade at $54.81 with a market cap of 5.67 billion and has a yearly revenue of $1.483 billion in 2025 and is expected to generate a revenue of $1.734 B- Therefore, on a bear case, P/S multiple should at least be 5x , base case 7x and bull case 9x
- Market cap should be 8.67B (bear), $12.13 B (base) , $15B (bull)
- Potential Upside would be: 52% , 113%, 164%
- Target Stock price : $83 (bear) , $116 (base) , $144 (bull)
Uwaga
- Mean reversion price target based on 2025 year revenue ( 1.483 B ) with 5x p/s multiple = $7.41 B market cap- Potential market cap should be $7.41 B ; current market cap: $5.67 B . Therefore potential upside: ~30%
- Mean reversion price target : 1.3 x 54.81 = $71.6
Uwaga
For 2026- bear case range is $71.6 - $83
- base case range is $100 - $116
Uwaga
- ESTC Gap fill target @ $83Uwaga
- ESTC pricing is consumption based. More consumption = More revenue!- Gen AI , Agentic AI use cases often require search infrastructure for storing long term "context" which reduces tokens while inferencing as one doesn't need to store everything in the context window of the LLM
Uwaga
- I went through earnings call on 28 May 2026. No changes in the thesis. I have seen what I wanted to see.. there would be slight dip in the next Q1 2027 but then management expect to see acceleration in the business as 2027 progresses. - Multiple is still depressed for a growing company which is getting stronger. Buying the dip and accumulating on any weakness.
- Anyone who accumulates in these weaknesses because of Q1 2027 guidance would be rewarded as we approach 2027
Uwaga
- ESTC was down 9% ; it gap filled and marched higher and flipped green from red. Glad money manager looked earning report carefully and finally saw the acceleration in CRPO which everyone was crying about in last couple of quarters.Uwaga
- ESTC should trade above > $75Uwaga
- Leader in Search Infrastructure. Elastic Search is the defacto king of Search infra and loyal developer base! Uwaga
- ESTC is making bull flag as of June 8, 2026
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