█ SETUP
Germany 40 / DAX ·
GER40 · 1D · long only.
(Context:DAX cash index for macro read.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 4 bars to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (GER40 1D):
Win rate 78% · profit factor 2.2 · max drawdown 75% (equity curve — slow index sleeve)
Avg winning trade +10.0% · avg losing trade −8.4%
Typical hold ~88 bars on winners · 160 trades in sample · patient DAX mean-reversion grid
Live track record (same template, Jun 2026):
Prior 1D cycle 9–22 Jun closed +2.3% on the same strategy — re-entry, not a new template.
═
█ WHY NOW
Sunday evening DAX daily bar — ALMA long fired 29 Jun 21:05 UTC on theGER40 print.
Fresh 1D entry ~24,730 — index mean-reversion into the European weekly open, not a breakout chase. First bar only (no live MTM in snapshot — index mark feed intermittent on GER40).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~22,257. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop — no discretionary TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
Asset: GER40 = German large-cap / export-heavy index — ECB path, EURUSD, and China demand matter as much as US tech beta.
Tape (late Jun): US indices held better than metals/crypto on several sessions; European cash can catch up on a soft-landing read if EUR stabilizes.
Calendar: Geopolitics and energy still the swing overlay — DAX industrials benefit from EUR weakness but suffer on global growth scares.
Execution is 1D ALMA mean-reversion on an index CFD, not a macro forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 78% WR · PF 2.2 · avg win +10.0% vs avg loss −8.4% — positive skew on a slow index TF
- Fresh 29 Jun 21:05Z daily entry — same template that closed +2.3% mid-June
- Min diff 1/4 — patient exit clock suits index grind vs 1/1 crypto sleeves
- Typical hold ~88 bars on winners — aligns with multi-week DAX swings, not day-trading noise
- Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk per lot
Negative factors
- High equity-curve max DD in long backtest (index sleeves can sit underwater through cycles)
- First daily bar only — no confirmed follow-through beyond the ALMA entry print yet
- DAX gaps on EU headline risk (tariffs, ECB, Germany fiscal) — %-stop can slip on the cash open
- Index CFD spread / roll not in Pine tester
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: the 1D ALMA sleeve and mid-June +2.3% close on the same template support the Sunday refill, but elevated backtest drawdown and index gap risk make this a patient grind, not a momentum leg — min diff 1/4 exit clock and −10% hard stop bound nominal risk.
Base case: follow the 1D ALMA strategy · slow grind toward prior June exit zone (~25,080) if European risk appetite holds.
Bear case: global risk-off · DAX loses daily ALMA · −10% toward ~22,257 hard stop.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.
Germany 40 / DAX ·
GER40 · 1D · long only.(Context:
DAX cash index for macro read.)ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 4 bars to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (GER40 1D):
Win rate 78% · profit factor 2.2 · max drawdown 75% (equity curve — slow index sleeve)
Avg winning trade +10.0% · avg losing trade −8.4%
Typical hold ~88 bars on winners · 160 trades in sample · patient DAX mean-reversion grid
Live track record (same template, Jun 2026):
Prior 1D cycle 9–22 Jun closed +2.3% on the same strategy — re-entry, not a new template.
═
█ WHY NOW
Sunday evening DAX daily bar — ALMA long fired 29 Jun 21:05 UTC on the
GER40 print.Fresh 1D entry ~24,730 — index mean-reversion into the European weekly open, not a breakout chase. First bar only (no live MTM in snapshot — index mark feed intermittent on GER40).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~22,257. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop — no discretionary TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
Asset: GER40 = German large-cap / export-heavy index — ECB path, EURUSD, and China demand matter as much as US tech beta.
Tape (late Jun): US indices held better than metals/crypto on several sessions; European cash can catch up on a soft-landing read if EUR stabilizes.
Calendar: Geopolitics and energy still the swing overlay — DAX industrials benefit from EUR weakness but suffer on global growth scares.
Execution is 1D ALMA mean-reversion on an index CFD, not a macro forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 78% WR · PF 2.2 · avg win +10.0% vs avg loss −8.4% — positive skew on a slow index TF
- Fresh 29 Jun 21:05Z daily entry — same template that closed +2.3% mid-June
- Min diff 1/4 — patient exit clock suits index grind vs 1/1 crypto sleeves
- Typical hold ~88 bars on winners — aligns with multi-week DAX swings, not day-trading noise
- Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk per lot
Negative factors
- High equity-curve max DD in long backtest (index sleeves can sit underwater through cycles)
- First daily bar only — no confirmed follow-through beyond the ALMA entry print yet
- DAX gaps on EU headline risk (tariffs, ECB, Germany fiscal) — %-stop can slip on the cash open
- Index CFD spread / roll not in Pine tester
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: the 1D ALMA sleeve and mid-June +2.3% close on the same template support the Sunday refill, but elevated backtest drawdown and index gap risk make this a patient grind, not a momentum leg — min diff 1/4 exit clock and −10% hard stop bound nominal risk.
Base case: follow the 1D ALMA strategy · slow grind toward prior June exit zone (~25,080) if European risk appetite holds.
Bear case: global risk-off · DAX loses daily ALMA · −10% toward ~22,257 hard stop.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.