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U.S. Macroeconomic Dashboard

This is more of a cheatsheet/how-to for my own reference on my macro indicators charting layout. If the chart layout is helpful to the community, all the better! I find it useful for studying events and crises.

Indicators used: SPX, VIX, FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y, USIRYY + USCIR, UNRATE, USBCOI, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DXY

Row 1: Equity and volatility benchmarks
Row 2: Policy stance and inflation
Row 3: Unemployment and growth metrics
Row 4: Credit spreads and USD strength

SPX

Measuring: Equity benchmark
Relevance: Broadest market barometer
Observe: Trend direction, key levels, divergence vs other indicators

VIX

Measuring: Volatility index
Relevance: Market's implied volatility (read: "fear/greed gauge")
Observe: Spike --> risk-off, hedging demand; sustained lows --> complacency

FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y

Measuring: U.S. policy stance and yield curve
Relevance: Monetary tightening and loosening; yield curve recession slope
Observe: T10Y2Y curve inversion --> recession risk; bear steepening --> watch for inflation/deficit concerns; bull steepening --> Fed easing, recovery signal

USIRYY + USCIR

Measuring: Inflation
Relevance: Headline: all prices; Core: Excluding food + energy
Observe: Headline stat drives short-term moves. Core stat drives Fed policy

UNRATE

Measuring: Unemployment rate
Relevance: Labor market health (this is a lagging indicator)
Observe: Rising trend --> recession risk; very low --> possible overheating

USBCOI

Measuring: Manufacturing PMI; Business activity
Relevance: Leading growth indicator for manufacturing, services
Observe: >50 means expansion, <50 means contraction

BAMLH0A0HYM2

Measuring: U.S. High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (the extra yield/spread investors demand to hold junk bonds vs risk-free Treasuries)
Relevance: Stress in corporate bond markets; risk sentiment
Observe: Widening --> investors demand more compensation for credit risk; narrowing --> investors are confident, low fear of defaults. 2-4 is normal, 4-6 is stressed, 6+ is distress, 10+ is crisis level

DXY

Measuring: USD strength
Relevance: Global liquidity, capital flows, financial conditions
Observe: Strong USD = tighter conditions and pressure on risk assets; inverse for weak USD

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