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MSTR and BTC Wave Structures Signal Further Downside RiskMicroStrategy (MSTR) has experienced a deep retracement from its 2024 highs, declining by more than 80%, which reflects the extreme pessimism now embedded in the market. Typically, such large drawdowns can precede a reversal phase, and so far the structure does show three clear waves down from the peak. However, the subsequent rebound into the 200 area appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting it may represent a fourth wave within a broader bearish sequence rather than a trend reversal. If the current flag structure breaks to the downside on a daily close, it would open the door for a potential fifth wave decline toward the 100 level.
Bitcoin is also showing weakness due to a positive correlation with Microstrategy. It's declining impulsively along with MSTR after a three-wave corrective recovery. We could see another decline this year. If that happens, the key support remains around the 50k-48k area.
Adding to sentiment pressure, MicroStrategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin. While the amount is relatively small in the context of its holdings, it may still carry a psychological impact on market participants given the company’s historically strong association with aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. 
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BTC — How deep can this go..?
🟢BTC continues respecting the bearish structure after losing major support zones and breaking below the liquidity area. Sellers remain in control, while every recovery attempt is getting sold into.
🏆Previously:
🚀At this point, the focus shifts from the breakdown itself to the next potential reaction zones.
The first area I will be watching is around 67,500 - 68,500, where price is currently interacting with support. A temporary reaction is possible, but buyers still need strong confirmation to change momentum.
If bearish pressure continues, the next zone sits around 64,500 - 65,500, which could become the next destination for price.
Below that, another important support area can be found around 62,000 - 63,000.
And in a more aggressive bearish scenario, the market may eventually test the 60,000 - 61,000 region where larger reactions could appear.
For now, market structure remains bearish.
The question is not whether BTC can bounce...
The question is where buyers finally decide to fight back 👀
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01/06/26 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $78,080.00
Last weeks low: $72,512.49
Midpoint: $75,296.25
Last week was a clean distribution week. Price opened near the weekly high (~$78,080), spent the early week grinding down through the midpoint ($75,296), and printing a triple low to mark the bottom for the week after a large capitulation candle through the 0.25 line.
Critically, the candles we're seeing at the weekly low are not showing a convincing base. There's no wide spread reversal bar, no absorption of supply. Price arrived at the low with momentum still pointing down.
May closed with $2.43 billion in net Bitcoin ETF outflows — the largest monthly outflow of 2026, and the last week alone saw $1.42 billion exit, marking three consecutive weeks of over $1 billion in withdrawals.
The ongoing US-Iran conflict and a higher-than-expected CPI print of 3.8% YoY have sharply reduced Fed rate cut odds, with market pricing now showing a 67% probability of no rate cuts in 2026 at all. That's a brutal environment for Bitcoin, which tends to thrive on easy liquidity.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim 0.25 ($73,869) on a 3-day close to neutralize the bearish setup. A reclaim opens the path to midpoint and then weekly high. Failure to reclaim $73,869 puts the lower channel trendline at $70,342 in play.
The bear case involves a weekly close below the current low ($72,512) and a grind toward $70K. The bull case requires a swift reclaim of $73,904 and a hold there. ETF flow data or geopolitical de-escalation (Iran ceasefire progress) as the catalyst. Until one of those happens, the path of least resistance remains down. 
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EURUSD Bearish on Strong USD and Rising Oil Prices!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around the 1.17300 zone. EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase, with price approaching the trendline resistance around the 1.17300 support and resistance area.
From the macro side, the US Dollar remains supported as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to reinforce demand for safe-haven assets. Following fresh strikes and retaliatory actions involving Iran, markets have shifted back into a defensive tone, supporting USD strength while increasing inflation concerns through higher energy prices.
At the same time, rising oil prices are reviving higher-for-longer rate expectations, keeping Treasury yields elevated and reinforcing bullish momentum in the dollar. This combination continues to pressure EURUSD, especially as the Euro remains vulnerable to slowing growth sentiment and energy-related risks.
With EURUSD correcting into a key resistance zone within a broader bearish structure, rallies continue to look attractive for sellers. As long as price remains below the 1.17300 resistance zone, the bearish trend remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe, Joe.
