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GOLD - A pullback before the drop. 4,500?FX:XAUUSD remains in a bearish trend; the retest of 4,650 (the daily resistance level) ended in a decline amid profit-taking...
A hawkish shift by central banks: the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are signaling a possible rate hike due to inflationary risks caused by the energy shock in the Middle East. This fundamentally weighs on gold as a non-yielding asset.
Despite the dollar’s temporary weakness, the fundamental backdrop remains bearish for gold. The path of least resistance for XAU/USD is down. The nearest reference point is the ISM Manufacturing PMI data
Resistance levels: 4600, 4605, 4646
Support levels: 4554, 4541
Key support zone: 4570–4550. A retest of support shifts the balance of power, and a breakout could trigger a correction to 4600–4610 to retest the imbalance zone. A break below the specified resistance could trigger a further decline to 4550–4500
Best Regards, R. Linda! Short 
BITCOIN - The uptrend may give way to a correctionBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P , following a short squeeze at 79,500, entered a sell-off and closed below the trendline support, causing panic among traders. A consolidation is forming
Fundamentally, Bitcoin came under pressure due to the decline in the S&P and Nasdaq stock indices. Technically, the smooth uptrend forming against the backdrop of a global bear market may have lacked the momentum to break through 80K, and the market has entered a phase of liquidity hunting. A long squeeze could allow the market to gather the necessary momentum for growth.
Locally, Bitcoin is consolidating below the 77,400–79,500 trading range and below the trendline support, which generally suggests that buyers do not yet believe in an uptrend. A close below 76,500 could confirm a break in the local trend and trigger a further decline.
Resistance levels: 77,000, 77,400
Support levels: 76,500, 76,180, 74,600
Bitcoin is testing key support from the D1 timeframe (0.618 Fibonacci) and forming a pre-breakout consolidation around this level, which generally indicates weakness among the bulls in the 76,500 zone. I do not rule out the possibility of a short squeeze at 77,400 before the decline.
Best Regards, R. Linda! 
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GOLD - The market is under pressure. Waiting for news...ICMARKETS:XAUUSD , following a decline, is consolidating within the 4555–4607 range. Traders are holding their breath in anticipation of the Fed’s interest rate decision, which will be announced later on Wednesday.
Oil prices and the dollar have resumed their upward trend due to the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations, as well as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+. High oil prices are fueling inflation expectations and hawkish bets on the Fed. The market is pricing in a rate held in the 3.5–3.75% range. Powell’s rhetoric is key.
Two scenarios:
1. Dovish Fed rhetoric, de-escalation of the conflict, and profit-taking on short positions could support the gold price.
2. Signals that the Fed is ready to raise rates, escalation (which pushes up oil and the dollar), and a break below the $4,555 support level will intensify pressure, which could lead to a further decline
Resistance levels: 4,598, 4,607, 4,644
Support levels: 4,554, 4,500
Gold is under pressure both technically and fundamentally. Based on current data, the downtrend is the priority. Gold may test the 4,598–4,607 range, form a short squeeze before falling, and head toward the specified targets. It is possible that the market may test 4644 before falling to 4500. The structure will be broken if fundamental data supports gold and the price closes above 4644–4668.
Best regards, R. Linda! Short 
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XAUUSD: Short Wave C Near Sell Zone
Gold is pushing into a sensitive area, but from Kelly’s perspective, the current recovery is more likely the final short wave C of a corrective structure rather than the start of a sustainable bullish trend. What makes this zone especially important is that price is approaching the 4742–4748 sell zone, where the short-term structure may complete before the market begins a new cycle on the higher timeframe.
Technical structure
The current structure shows gold still reacting below near-term resistance, even though the short-term rebound remains in place. Price is moving into a clearly marked supply area, while still trading below the broader strong resistance at 4889, with no decisive breakout strong enough to confirm a higher-timeframe bullish reversal.
What matters here is that this rebound is developing after a multi-leg corrective phase, and the 4742–4748 area aligns with a potential sell region on the chart. That puts the market into a decision zone: buyers would need to push clearly above it to shift the structure, while failure in this area could quickly bring sell-side pressure back.
Key levels to watch:
4742–4748: nearest sell zone
4640: support level confirming short-term weakness
4548: next strong support area
4351: deeper support zone if the new bearish cycle expands
Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current rebound fits best as the final short wave C of the corrective phase. If that count is correct, then the market is approaching the end of the rebound, and the next important move would be the completion of wave C, followed by the start of a new cycle on the higher timeframe.
This is the key point Kelly is focusing on. A final wave C can still look strong in the short term, but if it completes directly into supply and is followed by a clear reversal candle, the market often shifts direction quite quickly. That is why the main focus is not simply that price is rising, but where it is rising into and how it reacts once it reaches that zone.
Fibonacci and liquidity structure
Structurally, the current rebound is also approaching an area that makes sense for a corrective move to complete. Price is moving into a short-term supply region, while lower liquidity still sits below at 4548, and deeper down at 4351.
That keeps the downside scenario technically attractive, especially if wave C ends with a clear rejection candle inside the current sell zone. When supply, wave structure, and liquidity begin to align, the market often reacts in a meaningful way.
What matters next
If gold reaches 4742–4748 but fails to close firmly above that area, while also printing a clear reversal candle, it would suggest that the short wave C may be complete. In that case, the market could begin rotating back towards 4640 first.
If 4640 breaks, the bearish structure would strengthen and open the path towards 4548. If selling pressure expands further in line with the higher-timeframe cycle, then 4351 becomes the deeper technical reference.
On the other hand, if price breaks cleanly above the sell zone and holds there, then the current wave count would lose quality and the chart would need to be reassessed.
Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a wave-C completion setup, not a breakout structure strong enough to justify a broader bullish continuation. The current rebound may still stretch slightly higher, but as long as price is reacting inside 4742–4748, the preferred view remains to watch for reversal confirmation that would signal the end of wave C.
As long as gold cannot decisively break above the current supply zone, Kelly’s bias remains that the market is completing its short corrective rebound and preparing to begin a new higher-timeframe cycle.
Conclusion
Gold is currently trading in its final short wave C, and price has now entered the important 4742–4748 sell zone. This is the area to watch closely, because if a clear reversal candle appears, the market may confirm the end of the rebound and begin a new bearish cycle on the higher timeframe.
The rebound is still visible.
But if wave C finishes inside this supply zone, the more important move in gold may soon return to the downside. Short 
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GOLD - Technical AnalysisICMARKETS:XAUUSD bounced off the 4668 support level toward the end of Friday’s session following a long squeeze, thereby breaking the local bearish structure. The market’s next move depends on geopolitical developments.
The dollar closed Friday in the red, and technically, the index looks poised to continue its decline. Oil is stagnant. Gold, technically, is still under pressure from bears, but Friday’s session closed above Thursday’s close, which gives us positive signals, provided that the fundamental and geopolitical backdrop supports the market. (The previous idea—a break below 4668—remains valid, provided gold returns to that level.) This coming week, all eyes are on the U.S.-Iran negotiations, as well as fundamental data: the Fed’s rate decision, the regulator’s meeting, and GDP and inflation figures.
Resistance levels: 4740, 4795
Support levels: 4668, 4644, 4600
Technically, at the moment, I expect a bounce from 4700 (4688) and a retest of the 4740 liquidity zone. A close above 4740 will open the door for continued growth toward 4800.
However, if the price fails to react at 4700 and retreats to 4668, the likelihood of a further decline will resume.
Best regards, R. Linda! Long 
GOLD - Geopolitics and two scenarios... Gold, under downward pressure, is testing the 4,668 support level. However, technical factors are weak against the backdrop of fundamental and geopolitical developments. Iran may resume negotiations...
Gold remains under pressure due to a combination of strong U.S. data and geopolitical uncertainty, which is driving investors toward the dollar rather than gold. However, the second round of peace talks between the US and Iran is expected to begin today. If the talks take place, combined with positive signals, this could push gold higher.
I know how much you dislike two scenarios, but under current circumstances, we need to be prepared for anything.
Two triggers: 4711 (4715) — consolidation above this zone could confirm the end of the correction and trigger a move toward 4800–4880.
And support at 4670...
Resistance levels: 4711–4715, 4795
Support levels: 4668, 4644, 4600
However, a negative outcome of the negotiations and an escalation of the conflict could increase pressure on gold due to a potential rise in oil prices. In that case, the market may break through 4670 and head toward 4600. Stay tuned for updates!
Best regards, R. Linda! Long 
XAUUSD Turns Heavy Under 4739Gold Slips Below Trendline as 4739 Sell Zone Caps Recovery
Gold is showing increasing technical weakness on the 4H chart as price trades below the former rising trendline and continues to struggle under the 4739 sell zone. The current structure suggests that upside momentum is fading, while the market begins to lean toward a deeper corrective move.
Technical Structure
From a technical perspective, gold has broken away from the previous bullish path after losing support from the ascending trendline. Since that breakdown, price has remained heavy and continues to rotate below the nearby resistance zone.
The 4739 area is now acting as a clear sell zone. Recent price action failed to reclaim this level, confirming that supply is still active and that buyers are not yet strong enough to rebuild momentum above resistance.
Volume profile also adds weight to the current bearish bias. The chart shows that price is moving away from the upper value area, while the lower high structure remains visible on the right side of the chart. This reflects fading bullish participation and a market that is gradually accepting lower prices.
As long as gold stays below the broken trendline and below 4739, the technical structure remains vulnerable to further downside expansion.
Key Levels
Sell zone / resistance: 4739
Broken dynamic support: Former ascending trendline
Major reaction support: 4556
Buy zone / POC: 4404
Lower structural support: 4352
Scenario & Expectation
The preferred scenario remains bearish continuation.
As long as price stays below 4739, gold may continue extending lower toward 4556, which is the first important reaction zone on the chart. If selling pressure remains firm and that support fails to hold, the market could move deeper into the 4404 buy zone, where the volume profile suggests stronger interest may return.
The 4352 level remains the deeper structural support if the correction extends further.
On the other hand, if price reclaims 4739 and starts holding above it with stronger acceptance, the immediate bearish pressure would weaken and the structure would need to be reassessed.
Conclusion
Gold is currently trading in a weaker technical position after losing its rising trendline and failing to recover above the 4739 sell zone.
With price now shifting away from resistance and structure turning heavier on the 4H chart, the market continues to favor a move toward lower support and liquidity zones, with 4556 and 4404 standing out as the key downside references. Short 
XAUUSD: Rebound Meets Sell Zone
Gold is pushing back into a sensitive resistance area, but the rebound still does not look strong enough to shift the broader structure back into a bullish trend.
From Kelly’s view, this move still reads more like a corrective recovery than the start of a clean upside reversal. Price is now testing the 4695–4710 sell zone, while also reacting around a descending trendline. That combination makes this area important, because it is where the market may decide whether the rebound can extend further or roll back into the dominant bearish structure.
Technical structure
The broader chart still looks defensive. Price has bounced from the 4670 support area, but the recovery remains limited and uneven. More importantly, gold is still trading below the higher resistance layers, which means buyers have created a rebound, but not a real structural reversal.
The current setup is notable for three reasons:
price is retesting the 4695–4710 sell zone
the rebound is running into trendline resistance
the broader structure still shows lower highs and unfinished downside pressure
As long as gold stays below the nearby resistance band, the rebound remains vulnerable to failure.
Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current bounce still fits best as a wave 4 correction after the previous impulsive decline. If that count is correct, then the next meaningful move would likely be wave 5 lower.
This is why the current rebound should be judged by its structure, not just by the fact that price is moving up. A true bullish reversal would normally reclaim resistance with stronger continuation and acceptance above it. So far, this recovery still looks corrective and contained.
Fibonacci and liquidity structure
The Fibonacci projection continues to support the bearish case. The downside path still leaves room toward the 1.618 extension, which aligns with the deeper liquidity zone near 4573.
That matters because when a Fibonacci extension overlaps with a clear liquidity area, the zone often becomes a meaningful downside magnet if the market resumes trend.
For now, the main references remain:
4695–4710 as the immediate resistance and sell zone
4670 as the first downside trigger
4573 as the deeper liquidity objective if bearish momentum expands
What matters next
If gold fails to break cleanly above the 4695–4710 zone and starts slipping back under 4670, the corrective rebound would likely be close to complete. That would strengthen the case for another bearish leg toward 4573.
On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the sell zone, break the descending trendline, and build acceptance above nearby resistance, then the current bearish wave count would lose quality.
For now, price is still reacting below resistance, not reclaiming it.
Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this remains a sell-the-rebound type of chart. The bounce from 4670 is visible, but it is unfolding into resistance, not through it. That keeps the broader bearish structure intact for now.
As long as gold stays capped below the current sell zone and fails to reclaim higher resistance, Kelly’s preferred read remains that the market is finishing wave 4 and may still be preparing for wave 5 lower.
Conclusion
Gold is rebounding, but the structure still looks corrective rather than bullish. The 4695–4710 area is the key zone to watch. If resistance holds, gold may rotate back toward 4670 first, with 4573 remaining the deeper downside reference.
The rebound is there.
But structurally, the chart still suggests that the more important move may be lower. Short 
XAUUSD Stalls Below Sell Zone
Gold remains under short-term technical pressure as price continues to stay capped below the 4728–4735 sell zone. The current structure suggests that the market still lacks enough strength to reclaim higher ground, while the short-term bearish trend remains intact.
Technical Structure
From a technical perspective, gold has already lost its previous bullish structure and is now trading below a descending trendline that continues to act as dynamic resistance. Each rebound remains limited, which shows that sellers are still controlling the short-term price action.
The reaction at 4728–4735 remains a key signal. This area continues to act as an active supply zone, as price retested it but failed to hold above it. At the same time, the lower-high structure remains unchanged, further supporting the case for continued weakness.
The volume profile around the recent rebound also suggests that the market is accepting price below resistance rather than building momentum for a stronger recovery. In other words, current buying pressure is still not convincing enough to reclaim the lost value area.
Key Levels
Sell zone / resistance: 4728–4735
Dynamic resistance: Descending trendline
Support 1: 4669
Support 2: 4645
Deeper liquidity zone: 4608
Scenario & Expectation
The preferred scenario remains bearish continuation after short-term rebounds.
Price may still retest the 4728–4735 area, but unless that zone is reclaimed and held, selling pressure is likely to remain dominant. If the current structure stays intact, gold could move back toward 4669 first. A break below that level would then expose 4645, followed by the deeper liquidity zone near 4608.
On the other hand, if price manages to reclaim 4735 and hold above it, the short-term bearish structure would begin to weaken and the market would need to be reassessed.
Conclusion
Gold is still trading in a technically weak structure, with clear rejection from the 4728–4735 sell zone, pressure from the descending trendline, and an intact lower-high formation.
Until this resistance area is decisively reclaimed, the market continues to favor a move toward lower liquidity levels. Short 
GOLD - A pullback before an upward Gold is forming a long lower wick at a key support zone and is recovering from yesterday’s drop. The move up from the local low has reached around 2.5%. Before continuing the rally, a pullback toward 4738 is possible as traders hunt for liquidity.
Trump’s unilateral extension of the ceasefire has given temporary relief to the dollar and supported gold. However, negotiations remain stalled. Iran is waiting for a “comprehensive proposal” from the US, while port blockades are still in place.
Escalation threats (which usually pressure gold) remain. Meanwhile, the Fed: Kevin Warsh hinted during testimony that he may be less dovish than previously expected.
De-escalation, successful London talks (including reopening of key routes), and a weaker dollar could support further upside in gold. On the other hand, failed negotiations, renewed escalation, a stronger dollar, and rising rate expectations could put pressure on the metal.
Resistance levels: 4772, 4798, 4830
Support levels: 4738, 4700, 4668
Before moving higher, gold may test the 4738–4720 liquidity zone. However, a breakout and consolidation above 4770 could trigger an early rally.
Also keep an eye on statements from countries involved in the Middle East conflict, as the market may react unpredictably to any sharp developments.
Regards : KING OF GOLD Long 
GOLD - A pullback before an upward move FX:XAUUSD is forming a long squeeze at a key support zone and recovering from yesterday’s decline. The rise from the local low amounted to 2.5%. Before the rally continues, a pullback to 4738 is possible as traders seek liquidity.
Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire, giving the dollar a temporary respite and supporting gold. However, negotiations have stalled; Iran is waiting for a “comprehensive proposal” from the U.S., and the port blockades remain in place.
Threats of escalation (gold reacts negatively to such developments)
Fed: Kevin Warsh signaled during testimony that he may be less “dovish” than previously expected.
De-escalation, the success of London talks on reopening the Strait, and dollar weakness could support further gold gains. However, a breakdown in negotiations, escalation, a strengthening dollar, and expectations of a Fed rate hike will increase pressure on the metal...
Resistance levels: 4772, 4798, 4830
Support levels: 4738, 4700, 4668
Before rising, gold may test the liquidity zone of 4738–4720. However, a breakout and consolidation above 4770 could trigger a premature rally.
It is also worth monitoring statements from countries involved in the Middle East conflict; the market may react unpredictably to any sharp statements.
Best regards, R. Linda! Long 
