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XAUUSD H1 | SMC Sell Setup | Premium Zone RejectionGold remains in a bearish market structure on the H1 timeframe after rejecting a key premium supply zone. Price has swept liquidity above previous highs and is now approaching a bearish order block, where sellers may regain control.
This analysis is based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), combining market structure, liquidity, order blocks, Fair Value Gap (FVG), and EMA trend confirmation. A bearish continuation becomes more probable if price rejects the highlighted resistance area and confirms with a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by a Break of Structure (BOS).
Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry: Rejection from the Bearish Order Block / FVG
Invalidation (SL): Above the Premium Supply Zone
TP1: First support level
TP2: Previous swing low
TP3: Major demand zone
This analysis is shared for educational purposes and reflects my personal market view. Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade and follow proper risk management. Markets are probabilistic, not guaranteed.
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Bullish EMA Cross Trapped Under the 200: Fading the Bear RallyBINANCE:ETHUSDT
The 20 EMA just crossed above the 50 EMA on the daily — normally a bullish signal. But context kills it. Price is printing this crossover ~17% below the 200 EMA ($2,200), deep inside a macro downtrend that's been in control since late April.
This is a bear rally, not a trend reversal.
📍 Setup:
After dropping from $2,700 to $1,500 in May–June, ETH bounced sharply. The 20/50 crossover confirms short-term momentum — but it's happening under heavy overhead resistance with the 200 EMA acting as a ceiling miles above.
📍 Entry: $1,855 (current price, rejection zone)
🛑 Stop Loss: $1,950 (above recent swing high)
🎯 TP1: $1,665 (2:1 R:R)
🎯 TP2: $1,500 (June lows retest)
📊 Risk-to-Reward: 1:2 — 1:3.7
Why I'm bearish despite the crossover:
The 200 EMA at $2,200 is the trend filter — price isn't even close. The June bounce recovered 50% of the drop but stalled at $1,900 resistance. Volume is thinning on the push higher. Bullish crossovers under the 200 EMA have a high failure rate in macro downtrends — they trap longs before the next leg down.
Key support to watch: $1,750 (consolidation) → $1,500 (June low) → $1,380 if the floor breaks.
What's your read — relief rally or genuine reversal? Drop your analysis below. 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 
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EURGBP Update: Remains Under Bearish Pressure Within An ImpulseEURGBP is moving nicely lower as anticipated back in May and June, continuing the expected decline after completing the previous corrective structure. The pair is now developing the final wave E, which can take some time to complete, as wave E is expected to unfold in a three-wave (A)(B)(C) structure.
Following the completion of the wave (B) bearish triangle pattern, EURGBP has started a strong decline within the projected wave (C) of E. The current downside structure suggests there is still room for further weakness, with the 0.8400–0.8300 area becoming an important potential target zone. This move could unfold through a lower-degree five-wave bearish impulse, completing the final stages of the larger corrective pattern.
On the 4H chart, EURGBP continues to extend lower as expected on July 1st, but currently it can be making a higher degree abc correction in wave 4, which could retrace the price back toward the ideal 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 0.8545 resistance area before the next leg lower begins within wave 5.
As long as the broader bearish structure remains intact, any recovery should be viewed as corrective rather than a trend reversal.
