NBIS has been in a powerful uptrend on the 4-hour chart since late January, printing a clean series of higher highs and higher lows — from ~$80 to nearly $300. The most recent structural event is a sharp two-day pullback from the ~$300 peak down to the current ~$265 area, which lands directly on the prior breakout shelf established during the June 1 gap-up that launched the Nasdaq-100 inclusion rally. That $260–265 zone has been tested and held multiple times intraday, giving it meaningful support status on the HTF.
On the 1-hour chart, today's open printed a volatile gap-down candle (O272.8, low 264.6) that found buyers at the $264.56 intraday low, and the last bar closed at $265 — a pin/rejection right at the support shelf. The stop is placed at $253.50, roughly 1.5 ATR below entry and beneath the June 24 intraday low of $249.20, the level that would confirm the shelf is definitively broken. The target is $291, just in front of the June 17–18 supply cluster near $291–298 — the first defended supply zone price must traverse. A sustained move below $253.50 would invalidate the higher-low structure and signal a deeper retracement toward the $230s.
The fundamental backdrop is exceptionally strong: a $46–49B combined contracted backlog from Meta and Microsoft, a $2B Nvidia equity stake with Jensen Huang's explicit endorsement, Q1 revenue of $399M (+684% YoY), and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective June 22 driving ongoing passive-fund demand. The Eigen AI acquisition adds stack differentiation. The primary risk is a $29B capital funding gap through 2028 and dilution from convertibles, plus ~20% short interest that could amplify volatility in both directions. Earnings are in 42 days (August 6), comfortably beyond a swing trade horizon.
Given elevated implied volatility in a stock that has moved 437% year-over-year, a call spread is preferred over a naked long call to reduce premium outlay. The July 17 expiry gives the move roughly three weeks to play toward the $291 target — enough time without running into the earnings binary. Buying the 265 call and selling the 290 call captures the full expected move width while the short leg meaningfully offsets the rich premium. A long 270 call for the July 10 expiry is offered as a secondary, tighter-horizon structure for traders who want a faster resolution with less theta drag, accepting a narrower profit window.
📍 Entry: 265.40
🛑 Stop: 253.50
🎯 Target: 291.00
⚖️ R:R: 2.15
On the 1-hour chart, today's open printed a volatile gap-down candle (O272.8, low 264.6) that found buyers at the $264.56 intraday low, and the last bar closed at $265 — a pin/rejection right at the support shelf. The stop is placed at $253.50, roughly 1.5 ATR below entry and beneath the June 24 intraday low of $249.20, the level that would confirm the shelf is definitively broken. The target is $291, just in front of the June 17–18 supply cluster near $291–298 — the first defended supply zone price must traverse. A sustained move below $253.50 would invalidate the higher-low structure and signal a deeper retracement toward the $230s.
The fundamental backdrop is exceptionally strong: a $46–49B combined contracted backlog from Meta and Microsoft, a $2B Nvidia equity stake with Jensen Huang's explicit endorsement, Q1 revenue of $399M (+684% YoY), and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective June 22 driving ongoing passive-fund demand. The Eigen AI acquisition adds stack differentiation. The primary risk is a $29B capital funding gap through 2028 and dilution from convertibles, plus ~20% short interest that could amplify volatility in both directions. Earnings are in 42 days (August 6), comfortably beyond a swing trade horizon.
Given elevated implied volatility in a stock that has moved 437% year-over-year, a call spread is preferred over a naked long call to reduce premium outlay. The July 17 expiry gives the move roughly three weeks to play toward the $291 target — enough time without running into the earnings binary. Buying the 265 call and selling the 290 call captures the full expected move width while the short leg meaningfully offsets the rich premium. A long 270 call for the July 10 expiry is offered as a secondary, tighter-horizon structure for traders who want a faster resolution with less theta drag, accepting a narrower profit window.
📍 Entry: 265.40
🛑 Stop: 253.50
🎯 Target: 291.00
⚖️ R:R: 2.15
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.