01/06/26 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $78,080.00
Last weeks low: $72,512.49
Midpoint: $75,296.25
Last week was a clean distribution week. Price opened near the weekly high (~$78,080), spent the early week grinding down through the midpoint ($75,296), and printing a triple low to mark the bottom for the week after a large capitulation candle through the 0.25 line.
Critically, the candles we're seeing at the weekly low are not showing a convincing base. There's no wide spread reversal bar, no absorption of supply. Price arrived at the low with momentum still pointing down.
May closed with $2.43 billion in net Bitcoin ETF outflows — the largest monthly outflow of 2026, and the last week alone saw $1.42 billion exit, marking three consecutive weeks of over $1 billion in withdrawals.
The ongoing US-Iran conflict and a higher-than-expected CPI print of 3.8% YoY have sharply reduced Fed rate cut odds, with market pricing now showing a 67% probability of no rate cuts in 2026 at all. That's a brutal environment for Bitcoin, which tends to thrive on easy liquidity.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim 0.25 ($73,869) on a 3-day close to neutralize the bearish setup. A reclaim opens the path to midpoint and then weekly high. Failure to reclaim $73,869 puts the lower channel trendline at $70,342 in play.
The bear case involves a weekly close below the current low ($72,512) and a grind toward $70K. The bull case requires a swift reclaim of $73,904 and a hold there. ETF flow data or geopolitical de-escalation (Iran ceasefire progress) as the catalyst. Until one of those happens, the path of least resistance remains down. 
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EURUSD Bearish on Strong USD and Rising Oil Prices!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around the 1.17300 zone. EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase, with price approaching the trendline resistance around the 1.17300 support and resistance area.
From the macro side, the US Dollar remains supported as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to reinforce demand for safe-haven assets. Following fresh strikes and retaliatory actions involving Iran, markets have shifted back into a defensive tone, supporting USD strength while increasing inflation concerns through higher energy prices.
At the same time, rising oil prices are reviving higher-for-longer rate expectations, keeping Treasury yields elevated and reinforcing bullish momentum in the dollar. This combination continues to pressure EURUSD, especially as the Euro remains vulnerable to slowing growth sentiment and energy-related risks.
With EURUSD correcting into a key resistance zone within a broader bearish structure, rallies continue to look attractive for sellers. As long as price remains below the 1.17300 resistance zone, the bearish trend remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe, Joe. 
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