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XAUUSD – Bearish Setup After Key Resistance Rejection | TP1 / TPXAUUSD 4H – Bearish Continuation Analysis | May 27, 2026
Price has completed a significant rally of approximately 1100 pips from the retacement zone near the 74,193–74,421 area, reaching into the key resistance zone around 77,565–78,000.
Analysis Summary:
Price swept into a major resistance zone where a Change of Character (ChoCH) was confirmed. A bearish reaction has already begun, and we are now looking for continuation to the downside after a minor pullback or consolidation near 76,738.
The current candle structure shows a bearish engulfing pattern following resistance rejection, supported by volume increase on the downside.
Trade Setup – Short Bias:
Entry Zone: 76,738 – 77,000 (current area)
Stop Loss: Above 77,565 (key resistance high)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 76,037
TP2: 75,264
TP3: 74,421 – 74,193 (retacement zone / liquidity pool)
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 77,565 – 78,000
Support / TP Zone: 76,037 / 75,264 / 74,193
Reasoning:
ChoCH confirmed at resistance
Fair Value Gap (FVG) visible below current price acting as a magnet
Equal lows (EQL) near 74,337 providing a liquidity target
Fibonacci retracement at 0.525 aligns with TP3 zone
Bearish momentum visible on volume profile
Risk Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management and do your own research before entering any trade.
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Crude Oil Update: Bearish Triangle Near CompletionBack on May 13, we discussed the corrective structure developing on crude oil following the sharp March spike. Since then, the market has continued to respect the broader corrective outlook, and the latest price action may now be signaling that the next bearish leg is close.
As you know, on crude oil we have been tracking corrective price action since the spike to 119 at the beginning of March, from where we have seen nice impulsive trend in wave A, followed by a three-wave recovery into 118.55 resistance. Despite seeing some aggressive drop from that high in the first half of April, the market managed to stabilize around 82, from where we are now seeing a few more swings.
Ideally, it’s part of a bearish triangle which can now be coming to an end since we can count all the needed a-b-c-d-e legs in wave B. Plus, we have seen some nice sell-off so far in the last 24 hours, as authorities said the US was close to reaching an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. It makes us think that energy can be on the way lower, at least temporarily, towards the lower side of a triangle range.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure still looks corrective rather than impulsive to the upside, so we continue to favor bearish continuation once the triangle fully matures. A break beneath recent support could accelerate downside momentum and confirm that wave C lower is already in progress.
We still think that lower gaps at 87 and 67 will eventually get filled. Short 
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