Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Estimating the Bottom using RegressionIn our previous post, we used a straightforward cycle analysis based on weekly EMAs to estimate the next Bitcoin cycle bottom. You can read that analysis here .
In this post, we take a more advanced approach by applying polynomial regression. The full regression model can be found here . First we briefly outline how the model is constructed.
Model Construction:
For the bottom estimation, we use a cubic polynomial regression, defined by the function:
ax³ + bx² + cx + d
In this model x represents the weekly bar index, adjusted with an offset to account for the time between the genesis block and the first charted bar. y represents the Bitcoin weekly closing price. the a, b, c, and d parameters are coefficients derived through regression analysis
To construct the model, we use the cycle bottom values from the last four market cycles as input data. Input Data (Bottom Regression)
The (x, y) values used are:
(103, 2.5)
(267, 211)
(471, 3193)
(676, 16255)
The best-fitting curve is determined using standard statistical measures such as R², residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the full methodology is beyond the scope of this post, these calculations can easily be performed using online regression tools.
Using this approach, the following parameters were obtained:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
This results in the final regression function:
y = 0.000138314x³ - 0.0768236x² + 13.90555x - 765.8892
Estimating the Next Cycle Bottom:
With the bottom line regression curve established, we can now use extrapolation to estimate the next Bitcoin cycle bottom.
First, we estimate the likely timing. Based on the last two cycles, the transition from cycle top to bottom took approximately 52 weeks (one year). Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests a potential bottom around September 28, 2026
Next, we look up the corresponding value on the regression line at this point in time which is $45,837.
Conclusion:
Using polynomial regression, the model estimates that the next Bitcoin cycle bottom could occur around September 28, 2026 , with a projected price of approximately $45,837 .
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Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Estimating the Next Bottom using EMA'sIn this post, we take a straightforward approach to estimating the potential cycle bottom for Bitcoin using the 100, 200, and 400 weekly moving averages. There is no need to always overcomplicate the analysis when simple historical patterns can also provide valuable insights.
Historical Observations
Looking at previous cycles, several consistent patterns emerge:
The 100, 200, and 400-week moving averages have historically acted as key levels of support and resistance.
In the past two cycles, the cycle bottom occurred approximately 52 weeks after the cycle top.
The magnitude of drawdowns each cycle has shown a trend of diminishing severity: 2017–2018 cycle approximately -84% and 2021–2022 cycle approximately -77%.
Current Market Context
Turning to the current cycle:
The maximum drawdown so far is only around -52%, which is notably shallower than previous cycles.
The 400-week EMA corresponds to roughly a -60% drawdown, still perfectly aligning with the concept of diminishing returns.
Outlook
Based on historical drawdown trends, the behavior of long-term moving averages, and the typical ~52-week bear market duration, we anticipate that the next cycle bottom may occur toward the end of September 2026 . This level is expected to coincide with a retest of the 400-week moving average, with a projected price range around $50,000 , and the potential for temporary downside extensions toward $45,000 .
Good luck, and trade safely! 🙏 Short 
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Scared of a Market Crash? Answer: SILVER, $SLV $AGQTVC:SILVER AMEX:AGQ AMEX:SLV Just like Gold exploded higher in late 2025 through early 2026 — delivering one of its strongest performances in decades with massive gains, repeated all-time highs, and prices surging well over $5,000/oz at peaks — TVC:SILVER , AMEX:SLV , AMEX:AGQ is perfectly positioned to follow the same pattern and potentially outperform it significantly.
While gold captured the safe-haven spotlight, silver combines monetary demand with powerful industrial leverage (solar, EVs, AI/electronics). This dual driver often leads to sharper, more explosive moves once momentum kicks in.
Silver Market Fundamentals & Outlook (as of late May 2026):
Current Price: Trading around $74–$77/oz
2025 Performance: Up over 140–160% in one of the strongest years on record
Market Structure: Sixth consecutive annual supply deficit expected in 2026 (~46–67 million ounces)
Heavy Buying from China: Record imports in 2026 — China imported ~836 tons in March alone (highest monthly total ever, 173% above 10-year seasonal average), with Q1 imports exceeding 1,600 tons driven by both industrial and investment demand.
Key Demand Drivers: Surging industrial use (solar panels, EVs, AI/electronics) + rising investment demand (bars, coins, ETFs).
Supply Constraints: Mine production largely flat; recycling unable to keep up with demand
Gold/Silver Ratio: Currently around 55–62:1 (still room for further compression in a bull market)
Analyst Outlook 2026: Many forecasts $90–$120+, with bullish targets as high as $135–$300+ in extreme squeeze scenarios. Michael Oliver, a financial analyst and founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, who predicted Silver going past $100 before the Metals Bull Run, suggests that if gold reaches the $8,000 to $10,000 range, the historical gold-to-silver ratio implies that silver's catch-up move could rapidly push it into the $300-$500/oz range.
AGQ 2x Leveraged Silver: Sitting at around $120/share, these could easily surge past $1,000-$1,200 if Silver breaks $300/oz.
Impact of Rate Cuts Under Kevin Warsh:
Kevin Warsh, who just took over as Fed Chair in mid-May 2026, is generally viewed as more market-friendly and growth-oriented than Powell. Markets are pricing in the possibility of 1–3 rate cuts in the second half of 2026 (especially if inflation cools or economic data softens post-SpaceX IPO volatility).
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.
Weaker USD and lower real yields historically drive strong precious metals rallies.
Silver benefits even more than gold due to its industrial leverage.
Silver could be the perfect safe haven asset in case of a major market correction or profit-taking rotation following the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO (expected mid-June 2026). After the summer hype or toward September–October, any broad market selling could drive strong flows back into silver as investors seek protection — just like we saw with gold during previous periods of volatility.
Why Silver is Primed for More Upside:
Persistent global supply deficits draining inventories for the 6th straight year.
Record heavy buying from China — pulling physical silver from global markets at unprecedented levels.
Explosive industrial demand from green energy and tech sectors
Strong investment flows into physical silver and ETFs.
Potential for further gold/silver ratio compression, following gold’s massive 2025–2026 move
Macro support from Fed policy, geopolitics, and dollar weakness. 
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XAUUSD (12/05/26) long sentiment Hello everyone,
I am not typically a commodities trader, however I thought I'd provide a markup.
As we can see a large Double top high has formed, I have marked this PFH, many people would assume based of the size and severity of the formation that we will be seeing some rather exponential shorts.
In contrast, based on recent price action, specifically the low made in march, I believe that was the first leg of a reset. The extremity of the shift to the low, shows an inducement short. Price pulled back up from that low rapidly also. You can then observe a steady rise up until April where we then saw a pullback creating Mays current low, which if you look is price resetting on the 800EMA. I believe from this small observation that we will see price long, to confirm this further, price needs to close above Aprils high. If my bias was to become invalid, price would need to surpass the low made on the 4th May.
If you want to share your views and opinions please feel free to comment.
Thank you for reading. 
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2140 is the estimated endpoint of BTC issuanceWhat happens if we project cyclical, geometric, harmonic, range-based, and chart-derived timing structures far into the future?
The strongest near-term monthly concentrations currently appear around 2026–2028.
But more interestingly, the models also begin detecting isolated far-future timing “islands” — clusters that tend to densify as time approaches.
A notable cycle nest appears around 2050, followed by isolated projections around 2065 and September 2085.
After 2100, the period between 2110 and 2121 suggests a structurally denser and potentially more volatile environment.
Every projection is mathematically tied to a pivot of origin — and each origin carries a particular character. For instance, the 2140 projection shown here is linked to the 2020 low.
This is the aspect I find most fascinating:
timing is not only a decision layer for trading activity — it also creates thematic continuity across time. Themes, headlines, topics, trends, moods, they are reverbate mathematically.
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GOLD Weekly Analysis | 24 May 2026XAUUSD Analysis | 4h Chart
Follow price OANDA:XAUUSD
❇️ Analysis Description: Gold is facing a major structural decision. The overall bias remains cautious, but a shift in market structure depends on how price reacts to the current downtrend line and key horizontal levels. Volume and momentum will dictate the next major trend.
🔄 Trend & Market Scenarios:
Bullish Confirmation (Breakout): If the price gains enough bullish momentum to break above the major downtrend line and the 4,560.60 resistance area, we expect a shift in market structure. Buyers will likely take control after a valid pullback to this flipped support area.
Bearish Continuation (Breakdown): If the sellers defend the trendline and push the price below the 4,455.60 support zone, the bearish momentum will intensify, opening the path for deeper corrective waves.
🎯 Key Structural Targets
🟩 Upside Targets (On Successful Break & Pullback): 4,663.40 (T1) | 4,767.60 (T2) | 4,871.10 (T3)
🟥 Downside Target (On Support Breakdown): 4,350.52 (T1)
⚠️ Note on Targets: As price reaches the first structural target, partial profit-taking (Save Profit) or trailing stops (Risk-Free) is highly recommended to protect capital against sudden market reversals.
💬 What is your view on Gold this week? Let me know in the comments!
💡 Quick Note: I drop daily Gold & Bitcoin signals on lower timeframes right here throughout the week! Make sure to follow my page so you don't miss out on these daily setups. 📲✨
