While the Russell 2000 has broken out in a very big way to start 2026 and while the Nasdaq 100 holds an ascending triangle formation which points to bullish breakout potential, the S&P 500 has been consolidating deeper and deeper into a rising wedge formation.
I think a part of the reason behind it is obvious, as the 7k level has gotten closer and closer and as that level comes into play, the perceived top-end for bullish continuation gets more and more limited. But - there has been a continued hold of support on pullbacks which is what lends itself to the varying angles of the trendlines making up the formation.
Last week saw the support trendline come into play, and this led to another rally although bulls were unable to take out the prior ATH.
At this point, SPX isn't quite as attractive as the Russell for bullish equity plays as it appears as though we're seeing a late-stage broadening in the rally that began a few years ago. Structurally, given the higher-highs that have continued to post in SPX, there would be a more optimistic argument for continuation here rather than the Nasdaq, but timing for that is difficult as the Nasdaq, at the least, holds a bullish breakout formation via the ascending triangle. - js
I think a part of the reason behind it is obvious, as the 7k level has gotten closer and closer and as that level comes into play, the perceived top-end for bullish continuation gets more and more limited. But - there has been a continued hold of support on pullbacks which is what lends itself to the varying angles of the trendlines making up the formation.
Last week saw the support trendline come into play, and this led to another rally although bulls were unable to take out the prior ATH.
At this point, SPX isn't quite as attractive as the Russell for bullish equity plays as it appears as though we're seeing a late-stage broadening in the rally that began a few years ago. Structurally, given the higher-highs that have continued to post in SPX, there would be a more optimistic argument for continuation here rather than the Nasdaq, but timing for that is difficult as the Nasdaq, at the least, holds a bullish breakout formation via the ascending triangle. - js
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