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ALTSEASON IS TESTING THE DOOR.This is Altcoin Dominance excluding the top 10.
Not Bitcoin. Not Ethereum. Not the largest names. broader altcoin market.
The same structure mattered before the 2017 and 2021 rotations. Both times, the market looked quiet before breadth started to expand. Now the broad altcoin layer is pressing against the multi year downtrend again. This is not confirmation yet. But it is the exact chart I watch before altseason becomes obvious to the crowd. One coin pumping is noise. Breadth is the signal.
That makes this chart important for one reason: real altseason is not confirmed by one or two large cap coins moving. Real altseason requires breadth.
In 2016 and 2020, this structure was already starting to change before the crowd fully understood what was happening. The market did not begin with full euphoria. It began with compression, disbelief, and a slow improvement in the broader altcoin layer.
The same question is appearing again. Since the 2021 cycle expansion, altcoin dominance outside the top 10 has been trapped under a longterm descending resistance line. Every attempt to rebuild breadth has failed below that structure. This is why the current zone matters. The broader altcoin market is now pressing into the same downtrend again.
This is not confirmation yet. single touch of resistance is not enough. A real shift would require a weekly breakout, a hold above the trendline, and follow through. The market needs to prove that this is not another failed rotation attempt. If altcoin dominance breaks and holds above this multi year resistance, the message changes. It would mean the broader altcoin market is no longer only bleeding against the largest crypto assets. It would mean breadth is starting to return.
That is the part most people miss.
Altseason does not begin when everyone is excited. It usually begins when the structure starts improving while attention is still low. The crowd waits for green candles. I watch the relative structure before the move becomes obvious. invalidation is also clear. If altcoin dominance rejects again and loses the recent base, the broader market is not ready. That would suggest another failed breadth attempt and a continuation of the post 2021 compression phase. chart is asking a simple question: Is the broad altcoin market still dead, or is it preparing to reclaim market share again? One coin pumping is noise. Breadth is the signal.
TOTAL3/BTC
Bitcoin Dominance
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BTC update 25.06.26-24h Market Forecast (Wavelet Decomposition)Hi traders,
the previous day’s Bitcoin forecast indicated a generally sideways market, showing no strong directional bias either upward or downward. However, while the directional neutrality held in a broad sense, the shape of the forecast did not fully match the actual price evolution.
In reality, the price first experienced a sharp drop, deviating significantly from the predicted path. Interestingly, however, the market later recovered and returned close to the model’s implied equilibrium level, stabilizing around 61600, which is slightly below the initial reference level of approximately 62300, as expected by the model.
Current forecast (next 24 hours):
The current projection again suggests a largely flat market with a very slight downward drift. This behavior is driven by key spectral components pulling in opposite directions, effectively canceling out any strong dominant trend.
At the same time, the forecasted structure clearly shows two pronounced wave-like formations, indicating internal cyclical structure despite the overall weak net signal.
We will see whether this dual-wave structure and the mild downward bias will be confirmed by the actual price development over the next 24 hours. 
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Dollar Index (DXY) Elliott Wave view: Bullish Sequence The Dollar Index (DXY) maintains an incomplete bullish sequence from the January 27, 2026 low, supporting expectations for further upside. The projected target lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension range, measured from that low, pointing toward 102.7–106.0. This zone provides a clear technical framework for anticipating continued strength.
From a short‑term perspective, the rally that began on May 29 is unfolding as a five‑wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Within this advance, wave ((i)) concluded at 100.31, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) that ended at 99.38. The subsequent progression has carried the Index higher in wave ((iii)), which itself forms a smaller degree impulse.
From wave ((ii)), wave (i) terminated at 99.79, while wave (ii) retraced to 99.46. The Index then extended upward in wave (iii) to 101.12, before wave (iv) dipped modestly to 100.69. One more push higher is expected to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). After that, a corrective phase in wave ((iv)) should unfold, addressing the cycle from the June 15 low before resuming the broader advance.
Near term, as long as the pivotal support at 99.40 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to attract buyers. These corrections should unfold in the typical three, seven, or eleven‑swing sequences, reinforcing the bullish bias and supporting the view of continued strength in the Dollar Index. EURUSD Structural Report: Weekly Market Preview1. Macro Narrative & Daily Footprint (1D)
The primary macro trajectory for EURUSD remains structurally bearish, driven by high-level institutional capital flows favoring the USD. The market recently expanded downward to target a critical multi-month internal sell-side liquidity pool anchored at 1.14110.
Liquidity Absorption: During the Friday morning session liquidity cycle, price aggressively pierced the daily support zone (~1.1460) and swept deep into the Weekly Rejection Block (~1.1420), coming within 8 pips of the ultimate 1.14110 macro target before rapid institutional order absorption materialized.
The Daily Footprint: The daily candle completed its cycle strongly up at 1.14712, leaving a massive rejection wick at the base of the structural leg. This signature signifies substantial order absorption by commercial matching engines defending the higher-timeframe weekly support boundary.
The Premium Draw: This clean downward expansion has left an unmitigated Daily Fair Value Gap (1D-FVG) between 1.1530 and 1.1570. This structural imbalance acts as a powerful algorithmic magnet, drawing price higher to rebalance delivery arrays before the broader macro trend resumes.
2. Intraday Framework & Breakpoint Dynamics (H4)
On the 4-Hour timeframe, order flow delivery has shifted transmission to support a structural counter-trend retracement phase.
Market Structure Break (MSB): Friday's upward displacement printed a solid H4 candle body close above the previous lower high threshold at 1.1445.
Tactical Bias: The immediate structural bias remains bullish until price completes a mechanical retest of this recent H4 structural breakpoint/resistance target.
3. Weekly Execution Contingency Matrix
Rather than reacting to early session volatility or intra-hour noise, market exposure is managed exclusively via higher-timeframe limit structures across two distinct structural pathways:
PATHWAY A: SHALLOW MITIGATION & PIVOT: Price tests immediate H4 MSB / Resistance.
• Immediate rejection signals a continuation down to finalize the 1.14110 macro liquidity pool
PATHWAY B: DEEP PREMIUM RETRACEMENT: Price invalidates H4 and expands to 1D-FVG.
• Expect sellers to step in inside the Daily Fair Value Gap (1.1530–1.1570) for a premium pricing for a ride down to the 1.14110 macro liquidity pool.
Strategic Risk Parameters:
Wick Isolation: Any localized lower-timeframe gaps forming entirely within the physical footprint of the Daily/H4 rejection wicks are classified as market noise. Limit entry matrices remain anchored strictly to the macro open/close boundaries of the higher-timeframe Rejection Blocks.
Systemic Pivot: If the upward expansion into the Daily FVG breaches structural boundaries so aggressively that it prints an opposing, valid Bullish Daily FVG, the short bias will be deactivated immediately to realign with the new higher-timeframe institutional narrative.
System Note: This contingency framework remains entirely time-insensitive, operating strictly on spatial price coordinates and higher-timeframe structural validity rather than session-open timing.
Note: This is an objective analysis and not a signal for engaging the market. Let me know what you all think! Short 
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ETHUSDT Macro Analysis: Deciphering the Wave (II) Corrective StrETHUSDT Macro Analysis: Deciphering the Wave (II) Corrective Structure
Date: June 24, 2026
1. Executive Summary & Methodology
This analysis is strictly executed on a Closing Price (Line) Chart to filter out intraday volatility and candlestick noise. By isolating the closing price action, we aim to achieve a high-fidelity view of the underlying structural geometry and the macro-wave cycles. Our primary objective is to pinpoint the terminal phase of the Wave (II) corrective cycle.
2. Technical Structural Breakdown
Ethereum is currently navigating the concluding phase of a Regular Flat correction pattern. Based on rigorous wave counting and structural mapping:
Current Phase: The market is finalizing Wave © within a 5-wave impulsive sub-structure (Waves 1 through 5).
Internal Geometry: The internal impulse adheres to a classic 5-3-5-3-5 blueprint, confirming a textbook Regular Flat pattern—one of the most reliable structural markers in Elliott Wave theory.
Channeling & Validation: We are utilizing Terminal Channeling to confirm trend exhaustion. The breach of the Corrective Channel serves as our primary signal for a potential phase shift in price action.
3. Price Targets & Trade Scenarios
Primary Objective (Target): Reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, approximately at the $860 level (Expanded Target). This zone represents the most probable conclusion of Wave (II) and the initiation of a new macro-cycle.
Risk Management & Invalidation: Defined boundaries for “Bull” and “Bear” scenarios (
2,408 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2,408 and 1,984, respectively) serve as our critical Invalidation Points. Any price excursion beyond these levels necessitates an immediate reassessment of the current wave count.
4. Concluding Outlook
The current structural trajectory indicates a decisive bearish impulse with a clear terminal objective. The reliance on the Line Chart has allowed for the precise mapping of these sensitive channels, devoid of the distortion caused by candle wicks. Given the current wave degree, this zone represents a high-conviction area for monitoring and preparing for the upcoming large-scale trend reversal.
📊 Analysis executed by Mehdi
Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
“Patterns are whispering—and I’m listening.”
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Bitcoin Analysis: Downtrend Likely to ContinueBitcoin Analysis
Date: June 24, 2026
4-Hour Timeframe (Overall Analysis):
We are currently in a downtrend on Bitcoin. The red line represents the main bearish movement, while the green line shows the corrective phase of this downtrend.
It appears that the corrective phase may have completed, and we are potentially ready for the second wave of the downward move.
Volume analysis supports this view: volume increases on every decline and decreases during upward moves. This clearly confirms that volume is still backing the downtrend.
All these factors together encourage us to align with the prevailing bearish trend.
Breaking the previous low could serve as a continuation trigger. However, because the key support zone between $60,300 – $61,000 is very significant, there is a risk that price could spike through this level with a highly emotional candle, causing us to miss the entry.
Therefore, the better approach is to take a controlled risk and use an earlier trigger for entry.
15-Minute Timeframe (Entry Trigger):
We can open a short position upon breaking the support at $62,345.
Place the stop-loss behind the previous high or the significant rejection point formed during the breakout. The stop-loss size should be calculated so that we achieve a minimum 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio by the time price reaches the next major support level. This allows us to move the position to breakeven (risk-free) as soon as possible. Short 
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Beyond Elliott Wave: The Macro Correlation PlaySPX500 4H Strategic Analysis
Attention Traders,
Here is my latest deep-dive into the SPX500 4H chart. We aren’t just looking at price action; we are reading the “blueprint” of market energy.
Technical Breakdown:
The current structure presents two high-probability paths:
The Aggressive Scenario: A potential Expanded 5th Wave completion, targeting key liquidity zones at 8,957 and potentially reaching as high as 9,265.
The Conservative Scenario: A transition into a larger Wave IV sideways structure (potentially a Flat or Triangle), which could see a deeper correction toward the 6,339 level.
The Macro Edge (The Secret Sauce):
The real alpha lies in the DXY-SPX500 Correlation. We are monitoring the interplay between the US Dollar Index and Equities. Currently, as long as the DXY remains in its macro Wave 1/2 buildup, the SPX500 can maintain its bullish trajectory. However, we must be prepared for the “Energy Shift”—the moment DXY enters its explosive Wave 3, which typically triggers a major corrective phase in the equity markets.
Final Outlook:
What we are witnessing is a “minimal progression” phase, setting the stage for a much larger convergence. Stay disciplined and watch the levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 
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