XAU/USD 28 September 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price did not print according to analysis dated 21 September 2026.
Technically speaking, this is largely due to H4 TF being in a bearish pullback phase.
Price instead targeted strong internal low, printing a bearish iBOS.
Bullish CHoCH, to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation, is indicated by a blue dotted horizontal line.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 4,161.620.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: Gold: Fear or Structure?⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
In the market, no structure is carved in stone.
Price itself creates the structure with every move—and as its behavior changes, that structure can change with it.
On the Gold chart, what matters to me is not simply where the market goes next. The real question is:
What structure are the bulls and bears building?
Sometimes price looks calm and corrective, while underneath it, a force is developing that could completely change the path. At other times, a structure that looks perfectly logical can lose its validity after only a few new moves.
And somewhere in this battle, the whales may also decide to make their move.
But we cannot directly read their minds.
All we have is the footprint of their decisions on the chart.
That is why, instead of trying to predict who will win, I watch the structure.
Is price building three waves or five?
Is the structure expanding, or is the movement becoming compressed?
Is current behavior consistent with the previous structure—or is the market beginning to tell a different story?
For me, the Elliott Wave Principle is a language for reading this behavior.
We cannot see the future.
But we can see what the market has carved into the chart so far.
And perhaps that is the best way to understand the endless battle between bulls, bears, and the larger players in the market.
Yes, Gold could still experience a very deep decline.
That possibility is part of the structure—and there is no reason to hide from it.
Fear and doubt are natural when the market reaches important structural territory.
But instead of letting fear decide the story, let price speak.
I am simply sharing my interpretation of what price has carved so far.
The next chapter belongs to Gold itself.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2 days ago
Gold | Has the Triangle Completed and Is the Next Bearish Wave B
Episode 09 — When Elliott Began Drawing the Boundaries🎬 Mr. Nobody’s Chronicle
Season I — The History of Elliott Wave Principle
Episode 09 — When Elliott Began Drawing the Boundaries
⏱️ Reading time: ~3 minutes
“If this pattern truly exists, there must be a point where it can no longer continue.”
In the previous episode, we followed Ralph Nelson Elliott deeper into the world of structure.
He was no longer simply watching prices move up and down.
He wanted to understand something deeper.
How was a large movement built from smaller movements?
Why did certain structures appear again and again?
And could there be boundaries that helped distinguish one structure from another?
But the more Elliott studied the charts, the more he faced a new problem.
Suppose we see five movements on a chart.
Is that enough to say:
“This is an impulse”?
No.
Because if every five-part movement could be called a valid Elliott pattern, the entire process would quickly become little more than guesswork.
Elliott needed more than visual similarity.
He needed to find the boundaries of the structure.
As he continued his studies, some behaviors appeared again and again.
And some events...
when they occurred, meant that the structure could no longer be interpreted in the same way.
This was where an important idea gradually began to emerge:
Rules.
A rule was not there to tell Elliott where the market would go tomorrow.
It was not a tool for predicting the future.
Its purpose was much simpler:
To help him recognize what a structure could no longer be.
And as Elliott examined the impulse structure, three important boundaries began to stand out.
First...
If the first movement was the beginning of a new wave, the correction that followed could be deep.
But it could not completely erase the first movement.
If Wave 2 moved beyond the starting point of Wave 1...
the count had to be reconsidered.
Then Elliott reached Wave 3.
And here, something interesting appeared.
Wave 3 did not have to be the longest wave.
The important limitation was more precise:
Wave 3 could not be the shortest of Waves 1, 3, and 5.
That difference may seem small at first...
but for someone trying to truly read the market, it matters.
Because the market does not always create the exact picture we expect.
Sometimes Wave 1 extends.
Sometimes Wave 3.
Sometimes even Wave 5.
And this is where another important idea enters the story:
Extension.
A wave can contain a larger internal structure of its own.
So what appears to be only one wave from a distance...
can reveal a much larger story when we look closer.
Then came Wave 4.
In a normal impulse, Wave 4 should not enter the price territory of Wave 1.
Again...
another boundary.
Another question.
If that boundary is broken...
are we really looking at the structure we thought we were?
But here Elliott encountered something interesting.
The market did not always behave in exactly the same way.
In certain structures, this kind of overlap could actually be part of the pattern itself.
And this is where diagonals became important.
It meant that even a rule could not always be understood without knowing the type of structure we were dealing with.
The bigger picture was beginning to take shape.
Elliott was no longer simply saying:
“The market moves in five waves and then three.”
He was developing a more precise language for describing those movements.
This is an impulse.
This is a correction.
This structure may contain an extension.
This movement follows a specific set of rules.
And something important was happening.
The market was no longer just a collection of lines on a chart.
Each structure was beginning to have an identity of its own.
But Elliott soon faced another question.
If some characteristics were important enough to be called rules...
what about behaviors that appeared repeatedly, but did not happen every time?
Were those rules too?
Or were they something else?
And here, another important distinction entered the story:
Rules and Guidelines.
A rule says:
“If this happens, you need to reconsider the structure.”
A guideline says:
“This is what commonly happens within this type of structure.”
And that distinction takes the Wave Principle far beyond simple wave counting.
Because now, we are not only asking what the market can be.
We are asking:
What is it?
What is it not?
And what usually happens?
And this is where our story becomes even more interesting.
Because Elliott was no longer dealing only with “five waves” and “three waves.”
He was beginning to encounter a family of different patterns.
Patterns with different structures...
different behaviors...
and different personalities.
Impulse.
Zigzag.
Flat.
Triangle.
Diagonal.
The names were only the beginning.
Behind every name was a structure.
And behind every structure...
a behavior.
Now it was time to discover these patterns one by one.
Not simply to memorize their names...
but to understand what story each structure might be telling when it appears on a chart.
And that...
would become the next chapter of our story.
To be continued...
Narrated by Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Research & Market Studies
Mehdi & Rana
Education
Silver: The Bullish Case Rests on the Zigzag Family⏱️ Reading time: about 3 minutes
In the bullish case, the current structure could complete with a Simple Zigzag. One reason this scenario remains structurally valid from the perspective of the Elliott Wave Principle is the alternation between corrective waves. The Wave II at the higher degree was an Extended Flat, while the current correction may develop with a sharper and different personality. From a corrective-character perspective, this combination can therefore remain consistent with the principle of alternation.
In other words, the bullish case is currently in the hands of the Zigzag family.
But one important possibility remains.
If the current decline becomes more aggressive, we could be dealing with a more complex corrective structure. There is even a possibility that the market is completing the seventh swing within a Double Zigzag. In such a structure, Wave X can produce a sharp and deceptive movement, potentially leading traders to expect at least three waves higher, while the market is still developing within a larger correction.
Therefore, if the market breaks the previous low and the decline accelerates, this interpretation would become increasingly relevant.
On the other hand, if price moves higher without breaking the previous low, a Wave B may be developing. After B is complete, another decline could then develop toward a Classic Zigzag, particularly because the initial wave at the higher degree can be interpreted as a Leading Diagonal, followed by a three-wave retracement that would be compatible with this interpretation.
The bullish case becomes structurally stronger if price breaks through the Bullish Confirmation area, develops a valid Motive Structure, such as an Impulse Pattern (Five Waves Up), and then continues with corrective movements that remain proportional to the degree and personality of each wave.
So for now, the question is not about predicting direction.
It is about identifying the structure.
We may first see a sharp decline, another three-wave structure, or an even more complex correction. The market itself must reveal the answer through its next structural development.
For now, the Zigzag family holds the key to the bullish case.
Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Silver / U.S. Dollar
5 days ago
Silver | Has the Structure Chosen Its Path?
Bitcoin 1H | Understanding Structure, Not Predicting Price⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
The Daily chart gives us the bigger picture.
The 1H chart helps us understand what Bitcoin may do next as that structure develops.
Right now, Bitcoin is still forming a corrective structure, so both paths remain on the table.
🟦 Bullish Scenario
If the current structure breaks higher and develops into a clear five-wave move, the bullish scenario gains strength.
The first key confirmation level is around 84,601.
Above that, the next important levels are:
85,662 → 89,269 → 92,237
But simply reaching these levels is not enough for us.
What matters is the internal structure of the move and whether a valid five-wave pattern develops.
🟥 Bearish Scenario
If the current structure fails to break higher and price establishes itself below 83,091, the bearish path becomes active.
The main levels to watch are:
82,326 → 80,510 → 77,542
If the decline develops as a five-wave structure, it could support the idea that the larger corrective structure discussed on the Daily chart is still unfolding.
🔍 What Are We Watching?
This is not about predicting the future.
We are trying to understand the structure and study Bitcoin’s possible next behavior based on what the market is actually building.
Price does not tell us what must happen.
The structure it creates shows us what may develop next.
Structure first. Scenarios second.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Bitcoin
37 minutes ago
Mr. Nobody | Bitcoin Daily — Structure Before Prediction
Bitcoin
2 days ago
Bitcoin 15M | Structure Must Confirm the Path
Iran | When the Value of Money Tells the Story⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
This is not just a chart about the dollar.
It is a long-term look at the changing value of the Iranian rial against the U.S. dollar.
When we step back and look at USD/IRR over several decades, the scale of this move becomes difficult to ignore.
But Elliott Wave asks a different question:
What is the structure behind the move?
On the chart, the area around 42,000 stands out as an important structural reference. The powerful move that followed raises a larger question:
Are we looking at Wave (III), or could this be part of a larger Wave (C)?
For now, we leave that question open.
This analysis is not about predicting one specific number.
It is about studying the structure, testing the wave count, and allowing price action to confirm what comes next.
But there is one point I want my fellow Iranians to notice:
If this structure continues to develop, the upward pressure on USD/IRR may continue as well.
This is not a certainty or a fixed price prediction. It is a scenario that should be followed and confirmed through the market's actual structure and behavior.
A currency is more than a number on a chart.
Its long-term movement can affect purchasing power, savings, and how people think about preserving the value of their assets.
So perhaps the most important lesson here is simple:
Before asking where price is going, understand the structure that brought it here.
To my fellow Iranians watching this chart:
Look closely, study the structure, and make your own conclusions.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody Mr. Nobody | Bitcoin Daily — Structure Before Prediction⏱️ Reading Time: ~4 minutes
I want to begin this analysis with one simple rule:
We are not here to prove the bullish scenario or the bearish scenario. First, we read the structure and let price show us which path is developing.
On the Daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s larger structure still allows for more than one interpretation. The recent decline can be viewed as a five-wave impulse at a higher degree, while the sideways structure that followed may be part of a more complex correction.
But this raises an important question:
After a five-wave structure, must we always expect a simple three-wave correction?
Not necessarily.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, corrections can become much more complex. Smaller-degree structures may also become compressed, meaning that what initially looks like a large correction could still be part of a higher-degree motive structure.
🟦 Bullish Scenario
In the bullish path, Bitcoin could first develop another corrective or sideways structure before entering a stronger motive move.
If that advance develops with a clear five-wave structure, the possibility that we are seeing a higher-degree third wave becomes increasingly important.
The paths shown on the chart range from a more ordinary advance to a much larger Big Move to the Upside, including what I call the “Golden Possibility.”
The Golden Possibility may look extremely ambitious at first glance. But if the lower-degree structures have genuinely become more compressed, it deserves to remain on the research table as a structural possibility, not as a price prediction.
🟥 Bearish Scenario
On the other side, the current structure may still be developing as an Expanded Flat, as marked on the chart.
If this interpretation remains valid, the market could eventually complete the current structure and develop the next bearish leg.
However, there is an important point to watch.
If the current structure changes and Wave C of this Expanded Flat develops into a powerful motive move, the expected pattern could fail. Instead of continuing lower, Bitcoin could build a larger corrective advance.
In that case, further upside would become possible—but initially, I would still want to see it as a three-wave structure, rather than immediately calling it a new bullish trend.
If that advance fails to develop a valid motive structure, a sharp decline—or even a prolonged and grinding decline—would remain possible.
🔍 What Am I Watching?
For me, the main question is not:
“Will Bitcoin go up or down?”
The real question is:
How many waves will the next structure contain, and at what degree?
My research in Gold, Oil, DXY, Silver, AAPL, TSLA, Gas Oil, EUR/USD and other currency pairs will continue. But from now on, you will probably see me spending much more time in the crypto markets.
This journey did not begin today.
I started with candlesticks and Price Action, then moved into chart patterns and harmonic structures, and eventually arrived at the Elliott Wave Principle—where, for me, it became a powerful framework for understanding the structure and language of the market.
I have no disrespect for any other method. Every trader has their own path.
But through my own experience, I have found Elliott Wave to be a remarkably useful framework for studying market behavior.
When I look at crypto markets, I sometimes feel that the footprints of larger market participants can be observed through price structure.
Bulls, bears, and whales all live within these waves.
Our job is simply to learn how to read their language.
I will never tell you that a scenario is 100% certain. The market gives that guarantee to no one.
When structure, evidence, and experience align, I may assign something like 75% probability to one scenario—but it is still a hypothesis that price must confirm or invalidate.
This project is a living laboratory for me: a place to observe the market, test ideas, make mistakes, refine them, and keep learning.
And now, I want to continue that journey with you.
I give you my experiences, observations, and understanding of the market and the Elliott Wave Principle as a gift—to your eyes, freely, forever.
Not as a guru.
Not with promises of predicting the future.
But as Mr. Nobody — an independent researcher, an Elliott Wave student, and a fellow traveler for those who love the Wave Principle.
In the end, price will determine the correct scenario through the structure it develops.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Bitcoin
2 days ago
Bitcoin 15M | Structure Must Confirm the Path
Long
XAU/USD 29 September 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Since yesterday's analysis price continued bearish without without printing a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Bullish CHoCH is indicated by a blue dotted horizontal line with price currently trading within an internal high and fractal low.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 4,110.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: Short 
Short
Education 
Long 
Gold | Has the Triangle Completed and Is the Next Bearish Wave B⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
In our previous analysis, we considered both bullish and bearish scenarios.
However, based on the current structure, the bullish scenario is temporarily off the table.
🔻 Bearish Scenario
If the Triangle shown on the chart has indeed completed, the current move may mark the beginning of a new bearish structure.
In this case, we would expect the decline to develop through at least a three-wave structure. The important point is that a deeper decline could retrace a significant portion of the recent advance, making that advance more consistent with a sharp correction rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.
From a higher-degree perspective, there is another important possibility:
If the previous Daily structure was a Leading Diagonal, Elliott Wave guidelines allow for the correction that follows it to be sharp and deep.
For this reason, at this stage, we are not focused on price direction alone.
The way the next waves develop will be what confirms or challenges the bearish scenario.
🔍 Structure Before Forecast
For now, our focus is on how price reacts to the corrective channel and the confirmation levels marked on the chart.
If the bearish structure develops properly, lower targets may gradually come into play.
But if the market builds a valid bullish structure again, the current wave count will need to be reconsidered.
We are not here to guess the market’s path.
We wait for the structure to reveal it.
Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2 days ago
Gold: Listening to the Structure Behind the Next Move
Short 
Bitcoin 15M | Structure Must Confirm the Path⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
Hey everyone,
In this short-term Bitcoin update, I’m looking at two main paths. At the moment, however, the bearish scenario has the stronger structural position.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
For the bullish scenario to become more convincing, the market needs to prove itself through a clear motive structure.
Simply breaking above a resistance level or making a sharp move higher is not enough for me. The new advance should develop a recognizable impulsive structure, followed by a correction that is proportional to the previous growth in terms of depth, time, and wave personality.
If the correction remains within an appropriate range and the internal structure continues to support the bullish case, the path toward the higher targets could become active again.
So in this scenario, the market needs to prove itself.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
On the other hand, the bearish scenario currently provides a simpler structural explanation for the recent price action.
If the latest bullish move fails to develop into a complete motive structure and price loses the key levels marked on the chart, the possibility increases that the recent rise was part of a corrective pattern.
In that case, the current decline could be a continuation of that corrective structure, potentially developing into a larger bearish sequence as the next waves unfold.
Even here, however, the size of the decline alone is not enough for me. We need to see whether the market actually develops a bearish structure wave by wave and degree by degree.
🔎 Final Thought
For now, the bearish scenario has the stronger structural position, but the bullish scenario is not invalidated.
For that to change, the market needs to build a clear motive structure on the upside and then show that the following correction is proportional to the previous advance and consistent with its wave personality.
Ultimately, what matters to me is not simply the direction of price, but the quality of the structure the market develops next.
The structure must prove itself; we simply listen.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
🔎 A Note on the Previous Decline
One important point I want to add is that, before the previous major decline, I was already considering the bearish scenario more likely based on the structure. The subsequent price action provided further confirmation of that interpretation.
This time, however, I’m not giving the bullish scenario the same level of structural confirmation yet. The bullish path still needs to prove itself through a clear motive structure and a proportional correction.
So for now, I’m keeping the bearish scenario structurally stronger, while allowing the market to show whether the bullish alternative can earn that confirmation.
Bitcoin
2 days ago
Bitcoin 2H | An Impulse at the Crossroads
Short 
XAUUSD Daily Outlook — Liquidity Sweep Before Expansion | Key OBXAUUSD / GOLD — Daily Market Structure & Liquidity Outlook
Gold is currently trading around the 4,280 area and remains positioned between two important liquidity zones. The current price action is consolidating after the strong bullish expansion seen in August, while the market continues to respect higher-timeframe Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, and liquidity pools.
The chart highlights a potential liquidity-driven move rather than a straight directional continuation.
Key Areas on the Chart
1. Current / Lower Liquidity Area — ~4,260
Price is currently trading very close to an important liquidity zone around 4,260–4,265.
There are multiple recent lows around this area, which means sell-side liquidity may be resting underneath them.
A clean sweep below this area could become the first confirmation for the projected scenario.
2. 4H + Daily Order Block — ~4,080–4,125
This is the major higher-timeframe demand / Order Block highlighted on the chart.
If Gold breaks below the current 4,260 liquidity area, the 4,120–4,080 region becomes an important downside area to monitor.
This zone represents my main higher-timeframe bullish reaction area.
3. Upper Liquidity Area — ~4,390–4,435
There is significant liquidity resting above the recent consolidation highs.
If price reclaims the current structure and starts expanding upward, this becomes the first major upside target.
A sweep of these highs would also bring Gold directly toward the 4H imbalance / supply structure.
4. 4H Temporary Bias Zone — ~4,445–4,485
This is an important short-term reaction area.
If Gold rallies into this region after taking lower liquidity, I will closely monitor:
bearish displacement
lower-timeframe CHoCH / MSS
rejection candles
liquidity sweep
FVG formation
failure to maintain price above the zone
A strong rejection here could provide confirmation for another downside expansion.
Potential price-delivery scenario — not an exact projected path.
5. Daily FVG — ~4,480–4,560
There is still a higher-timeframe Daily Fair Value Gap above price.
The market may eventually seek this imbalance before establishing its next major directional move.
6. Untapped Daily Order Block — ~4,560–4,645
This remains the major higher-timeframe supply area.
It has not yet been fully mitigated, making it an important zone to keep on the radar if Gold continues higher.
My Primary Scenario
The current roadmap I am watching is:
4,260 liquidity → downside liquidity sweep → bullish reaction → 4,390–4,450 liquidity → bearish reaction → deeper retracement
The dashed projection on the chart is not a prediction of the exact path or timing. It represents the liquidity sequence I am monitoring.
Phase 1 — Sell-Side Liquidity
The first possibility is a break below the current 4,260 liquidity area.
If price takes these lows and immediately shows strong bullish displacement, it could indicate that sell-side liquidity has been collected.
Phase 2 — Upside Expansion
Following a successful lower-liquidity sweep, Gold could rotate toward:
4,390 → 4,430 → 4,450+
This would allow price to target the liquidity resting above the recent range.
Phase 3 — Reaction From Premium Area
The 4,440–4,480 region will then become extremely important.
A liquidity sweep followed by bearish structure confirmation from this area could open the possibility of another major move lower.
Potential downside areas would then include:
4,260 → 4,200 → 4,120
Alternative Scenario
The market does not have to follow the projected path.
If Gold shows strong Daily / 4H acceptance above approximately 4,480, the bearish reaction scenario becomes weaker.
In that case, price could continue filling the Daily imbalance and move toward the major Untapped Daily Order Block around 4,560–4,645.
Therefore, confirmation is more important than anticipating the move.
Important Confirmation Checklist
Before taking any setup around these zones, I would look for:
Liquidity sweep
Market Structure Shift / CHoCH
Strong displacement candle
Fair Value Gap formation
Order Block confirmation
Rejection from HTF zone
Lower-timeframe confirmation
Appropriate risk-to-reward
I would not enter simply because price touches one of these areas.
Overall Bias
Short-term: Watching for liquidity below the current range.
Intermediate: Potential recovery toward 4,390–4,450 after lower liquidity is collected.
Higher timeframe: Major reaction zones remain 4,480–4,645 above and 4,080–4,125 below.
The objective is to follow liquidity + market structure, rather than predicting every candle.
Educational analysis only. This chart represents a market scenario, not a guaranteed price path. Always wait for confirmation and manage risk appropriately.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk. Please do your own research and manage your risk before taking any trade. Brent Crude Oil | Is a Nested Structure Developing?⏱️ Reading time: About 2 minutes
In this latest 4H update of Brent crude oil, the main focus remains on the bullish structure. However, this scenario can only become stronger if the market continues to maintain a sequence of nested structures across multiple degrees.
At the moment, after the initial wave, we are watching the development of 1&2 structures across different degrees. The recent decline does not invalidate this scenario by itself, as it could still be part of a lower-degree correction.
It is even possible that the current decline is only the first leg of a smaller corrective structure. Therefore, what matters is not simply how deep the decline becomes, but where it fits within the overall structure and how price responds afterward.
As long as the important lows of the previous structures hold, and each Wave 2 does not move beyond the origin of its corresponding Wave 1, the nested structure remains valid for consideration.
However, if the decline continues and the lower-degree structures fail to hold, the probability of a larger-degree correction, potentially Wave II?, would increase.
For now, the bullish scenario still needs price action after each correction.
The market needs to show impulsive behavior again, maintain the sequence of nested structures, and, most importantly, demonstrate increasing strength as the upside structure develops.
If this behavior continues, each new meaningful low could provide valuable information about the development of a larger Wave III.
For me, the main question remains:
Is the market actually building a nested structure at the beginning of Wave III, or was this advance part of a larger corrective structure?
For now, the chart does not give us a definitive answer.
So we let price reveal the next structure.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
4 days ago
Crude Oil | What Is the Current Wave Structure Telling Us?
XAU/USD 25 September 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 21 September 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 17 September 2026 whereby I mentioned, in intraday analysis, due to the narrowing of the internal range, price could potentially strong internal high and print a bullish iBOS as we are also seeing a drastic reduction in the depth of the internal range.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal dotted line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, currently priced at 4,399.670.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 24 September 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 21 September 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 17 September 2026 whereby I mentioned, in intraday analysis, due to the narrowing of the internal range, price could potentially strong internal high and print a bullish iBOS as we are also seeing a drastic reduction in the depth of the internal range.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal dotted line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, currently priced at 4,399.670.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: Silver | Has the Structure Chosen Its Path?⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
In our previous analysis, we had two possibilities on the table: Wave IV had completed and a new bullish move was beginning, or the larger correction was still unfolding.
Now, the price structure has moved one step further and given us clearer levels to monitor for both scenarios.
🟦 Scenario 1 — Bullish Path
If the recent decline was a Wave 2, the current move could be the beginning of a new impulse.
In this case, a break and sustained move above the bullish confirmation levels would strengthen this scenario, opening the path first toward 67.73 and then 71.18.
If the structure continues to develop, the higher targets at 74.45 and 76.49 remain on the table.
But for us, price going up is not enough.
The internal five-wave structure must reveal itself.
⬛ Scenario 2 — Bearish Path
On the other hand, if the larger correction is not yet complete, the current move could still be part of a broader corrective structure.
A break and confirmation below the key levels would strengthen this scenario and could open the path toward 63.53, 62.30, and 60.55, with further extension possible if the structure continues.
So, we are still not here to tell the market what it must do.
We simply follow the structure,
watch the confirmation levels,
and let the market choose the scenario.
Patterns whisper. We listen.
Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle Research
Silver / U.S. Dollar
2 days ago
Silver | One Structure, Two Possible Paths
Bitcoin 2H | An Impulse at the Crossroads⏱️ Reading Time: ~3 minutes
Hey everyone,
In this 2H Bitcoin update, I’m focusing on one main question:
Is the recent bullish structure still developing as an impulsive pattern, or has that impulse already been completed and the market entered a higher-degree correction?
🟦 Scenario 1 | Bullish Case
In the bullish scenario, as long as price does not enter the territory of Wave 1, the current structure can still be considered a potential Impulse.
One interesting feature of this count is the relationship between the internal waves within the larger Wave (V). The approximate equality between the initial wave and Wave 3 is particularly interesting from a structural perspective.
If these five waves complete, the next important question is not simply whether price moves up or down, but what type of corrective structure develops afterward and at what degree.
If this entire move is actually part of a larger Wave (III), then after the correction is complete, Bitcoin could potentially continue higher and even return toward its previous all-time high, allowing the larger structure to develop into a more complete impulsive move.
⬛ Scenario 2 | Bearish Case
In the bearish scenario, the assumption is that the recent impulse has already been completed, and the current decline could be the beginning of a correction to that impulsive structure.
At this stage, the exact form of the correction is still unknown. It could develop as a Zigzag, Double Zigzag, Flat, or a more complex corrective structure.
After three corrective waves are completed at a higher degree, another downward move could potentially follow.
There is also a possibility that the current sharp decline is only the beginning of a sharp corrective pattern, followed by stronger downside pressure.
However, even in that case, I would not judge the larger trend simply by the strength of the decline. The bearish structure would need to develop wave by wave and degree by degree before we could connect it to a larger-degree structure.
🔎 The Key Question
For now, both paths remain structurally open:
Completion of an Impulse and continuation higher,
or
Completion of the Impulse followed by a higher-degree Correction.
For me, the most important thing at this stage is not simply whether the market moves up or down, but what structure the next move creates and at what degree it develops.
The market will reveal the answer through structure.
We follow the structure, not the prediction.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Bitcoin
Jul 4
Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.
Long 
🇺🇸 DXY | Short-Term Strength or the Start of a Larger Move? ⏱️ Reading time: about 3 minutes
In this update, we are taking another look at the DXY structure, this time with greater focus on the behavior we are seeing from the U.S. dollar in the short term.
At the moment, significant short-term strength is visible, and price is approaching several important levels marked on the chart.
But from an Elliott Wave perspective, simply seeing price move higher is not enough for us.
The key question is:
Is this advance the beginning of a new bullish structure, or is it simply part of a correction before a deeper decline?
🟦 Scenario 1 — Bullish Case
If DXY can break through the confirmation levels and then develop a valid motive structure, the recent strength would become much more significant.
In that case, the bullish scenario could develop beyond a simple corrective move and potentially create the conditions for a larger bullish structure.
But to reach that conclusion, the market needs to build the required structure itself.
Under such conditions, dollar strength may not remain limited to DXY and could potentially be reflected in the behavior of other markets as well.
From my personal perspective, one area worth watching is the behavior of oil and capital flows in the Gulf region, along with the reaction of other dollar-sensitive assets.
This does not mean there is a fixed or certain relationship. Rather, these relationships can serve as clues when examining how different markets are behaving together.
⬛ Scenario 2 — Bearish Case
On the other hand, an important possibility remains that the current rise in DXY is simply part of a corrective structure.
If price fails to develop a strong bullish structure and turns lower again, the deeper bearish scenario could regain importance.
In that case, structures such as a Simple Zigzag or Double Zigzag could still be considered as part of the larger correction.
So even if the dollar rises in the short term, we cannot conclude from price direction alone that the larger trend has changed.
The quality of the structure matters more than the direction of the move itself.
🔄 DXY Footprints Across Other Markets
In my own observations, I have seen the relationship between DXY and gold, oil, and the cryptocurrency market change across different periods.
But this correlation is not always the same.
Sometimes dollar strength can occur alongside strength in another asset, sometimes an inverse relationship develops, and at other times two markets may move in the same direction for a while before their relationship reverses.
That is why I do not treat these relationships as fixed market laws.
For me, the structure of each individual market against the U.S. dollar remains the key factor.
If DXY develops a bearish structure, then—provided the corresponding structures confirm it—the possibility of strength in gold, oil, or cryptocurrencies may become more relevant.
But even then, an asset may initially move alongside the dollar and later reverse its path. Everything depends on the internal structure of that particular market.
🌍 A Personal View of the Future
From my personal perspective, global markets are more than just a collection of charts. Behind these movements are economic decisions, capital flows, energy resources, technology, and the choices made by the global community.
In the future, changes in energy, technology, and especially artificial intelligence may influence the way capital flows and assets are valued.
But this part is my personal view of the future and should not be interpreted as a certain prediction.
When analyzing the market, we still follow the same simple principle:
We see the structure first; then we build the scenario.
For now, DXY's short-term strength is significant, but we need to see whether this strength develops into a valid bullish structure, or whether it ultimately proves to be only part of a correction before a deeper decline.
The market will give us the answer through its structure.
Structure First. Scenario Second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Jul 6, 2023
Big Correction DXY
US Dollar Index
7 days ago
DXY 2H | The Next Structure Will Define the Larger Path
Gold: Listening to the Structure Behind the Next Move⏱️ Reading Time: ~2 minutes
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios | Elliott Wave Principle
At the current stage, two primary structures remain under consideration. The key point is that price structure must determine which scenario gains greater validity, rather than direction alone.
🟦 Bullish Case
The market may be completing a corrective structure in the form of a Classic Zigzag, with the recent advance representing part of Wave C.
An important observation is that Wave C has so far retraced only approximately 61.8% of the powerful initial decline. Therefore, this advance alone is not sufficient to confirm a sustained bullish move.
If the current bullish structure holds and gradually develops into a valid motive pattern, we may be witnessing the early stages of a larger upward movement. It is also possible that the market is completing Wave II before an extended bullish move.
Within this scenario, the internal structure of the wedge may become complex, potentially involving a Triangle or several nested patterns. For this reason, the wedge’s appearance alone is not enough to reach a conclusion. What matters is how the waves develop across the smaller degrees.
🟥 Bearish Case
On the other hand, the Triangle visible on the chart may already be complete. If so, the market could be preparing for another decline, potentially with greater momentum.
From a higher-degree perspective, if the recent decline is interpreted as a Leading Diagonal, the subsequent advance may simply be a sharp correction.
This is precisely why, within the bullish scenario, we are also examining the current advance as a possible Impulse. Leading Diagonals are often followed by sharp corrective movements, and the market’s next structure will help us distinguish between these possibilities.
If the daily structure is part of a larger Zigzag, the current advance may represent only a portion of the correction. Once that correction is complete, another bearish wave could begin.
🔍 Structure Over Forecast
Gold’s behavior should also be observed alongside the U.S. Dollar, Crude Oil, and even the cryptocurrency markets. Correlations between these markets may provide additional clues, but structure remains more important than correlation or prediction.
Sometimes, a wedge can develop in either direction. Ultimately, the path will be determined by the strength of the price movement, the internal wave structure, and the way buying and selling orders are absorbed or accumulated.
For now, patience remains essential. We will wait for the market to reveal its next structure.
Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2 days ago
Gold | Structure Before Direction
