Gartley
BULLISH GARTLEY IN PPL PHARMAEducational Guide: Understanding the Bullish Gartley Pattern
This chart features a classic technical analysis setup known as the Bullish Gartley. Developed by H.M. Gartley, this harmonic pattern uses specific Fibonacci ratios to identify high-probability reversal zones.
Let’s break down the mechanics of what we see on this monthly chart for Piramal Pharma.
1. The Anatomy of the Pattern (X-A-B-C-D)
The Gartley pattern is composed of four distinct "legs" that form a shape resembling an "M".
The XA Leg (The Foundation): This is the initial strong move up from the bottom (Point X) to a local peak (Point A). It sets the scale for the entire pattern.
The AB Leg (The First Correction): Price drops from A to B. In a textbook Gartley, this retracement should be approximately 61.8% of the XA leg.
The BC Leg (The Minor Recovery): Price bounces back slightly. This move should ideally stay within 38.2% to 88.6% of the previous AB leg.
The CD Leg (The Completion): This is the final leg down to Point D. This is where the "magic" happens.
2. The Potential Reversal Zone (Point D)
Point D is known as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). This is not just a random guess; it is calculated where two Fibonacci levels converge:
A 78.6% retracement of the entire XA leg.
A 127% to 161.8% extension of the BC leg.
When price hits Point D, technical traders look for bullish confirmation—like the green candle we see currently forming—to signal that the correction is over and the primary uptrend is ready to resume.
3. Trade Management Strategy
Educational analysis isn't just about finding the pattern; it's about managing the risk:
Entry: Traders typically look to enter "Long" at or near Point D once bullish price action is confirmed.
Stop Loss: The "invalidated" point for this pattern is Point X. If the price drops below X, the bullish thesis is no longer valid.
Targets (Take Profit): Common targets for this setup are the Fibonacci levels of the AD leg—specifically the 38.2%, 61.8%, and eventually the Point C peak.
Why it Matters on a Monthly Chart
Because this is a Monthly Timeframe, the pattern takes years to form. This suggests a long-term "macro" shift in the stock's trend. While smaller fluctuations will happen daily, the Gartley provides a "big picture" roadmap for investors.
Key Takeaway: Harmonic patterns like the Gartley help remove emotion from trading by providing specific, math-based entries and exits based on historical market symmetry.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Technical patterns provide probabilities, not guarantees. Always use stop-losses and practice proper risk management.
INNOVA CAPTABInnova Captab Ltd. (CMP ₹734.65, NSE: INNOVACAP)
A fast‑growing pharmaceutical company, incorporated in 2006, headquartered in Himachal Pradesh. Innova Captab operates across contract manufacturing, branded formulations, and exports, with a strong presence in domestic and international markets.
Promoter Holding (Dec 2025): Founding group — majority stake
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FY22–FY26 Snapshot
- Revenue Growth: Q3 FY26 revenue ₹4,502.93 million (+~20% YoY). → Good
- Net Profit: Q3 FY26 PAT ₹421.49 million, strong profitability. → Good
- Operating Margin: Profit before tax ₹556.77 million, margin expansion visible. → Good
- Equity Capital: Stable post listing. → Good
- Dividend Policy: Interim dividend of ₹2 per share declared (Jan 2026). → Good
- Asset Building: Expansion in manufacturing facilities and product portfolio. → Good
- Sales: FY26 run‑rate indicates >₹18,000 Cr annualized revenue. → Good
- Expense: Input cost pressures manageable, efficiency gains offset. → Neutral
- EPS: TTM EPS ~₹23.1, reflecting strong earnings. → Good
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Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends (Dec 2025)
- Promoter Holding: Majority stake retained.
- FII Holding: Growing interest post IPO.
- DII Holding: Stable participation.
- Retail & Others: Active trading volumes (~80,000 shares/day).
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Strategic Moves & Innovations
- Expansion in contract manufacturing and branded formulations.
- Investments in new therapeutic segments.
- Focus on export markets and regulatory approvals.
- Strengthening R&D capabilities.
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Cash Flow & Balance Sheet Strength
- Strong operating cash flows supported by rising sales.
- Debt levels moderate, balance sheet conservative.
- Dividend payout signals confidence in financial strength.
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Risk Factors
- Dependence on regulatory approvals and compliance.
- Exposure to raw material price volatility.
- Competition from domestic/global pharma players.
- Execution risks in scaling exports.
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Investor Takeaway
Innova Captab has delivered robust revenue growth, margin expansion, and shareholder rewards via dividend, supported by strong promoter control and conservative balance sheet. With ongoing investments in manufacturing and exports, the company is well‑positioned for long‑term growth. Investors should monitor regulatory risks and input costs, but the outlook remains positive for long‑term holders.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) – Long Setup Technical AnalysisMotorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) – Long Setup Technical Analysis
MSI is currently trading above the Anchored VWAP, where a bullish Gartley harmonic pattern has formed precisely at the main Anchored VWAP level. This alignment highlights a technically clean value-based reaction zone, with price respecting volume-weighted fair value.
The Gartley structure suggests a controlled corrective move within an intact bullish framework, rather than distribution. The precise interaction with the Anchored VWAP reinforces the view that institutional participants are defending this level, maintaining constructive market structure.
From a tactical perspective, this configuration favors a long continuation setup. As long as price maintains acceptance above the main Anchored VWAP, the probability favors a renewed upside rotation toward prior highs and upper value areas.
Bias: Long on bullish reaction at the Anchored VWAP
Target: Upside continuation toward prior highs
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance below the Anchored VWAP
Context: Bullish Gartley completion + Anchored VWAP support = high-quality long setup
Ethereum Sees Sharp Drop In USDT And USDC UsageStablecoin activity on the Ethereum network has dropped to its lowest level in 2026. This shift has caught the attention of analysts and traders across the crypto space. Data from Santiment highlights a steady decline in transaction volume and wallet interactions involving USDT and USDC. This trend signals a potential cooling phase in the broader market.
Investors often rely on stablecoins as a gateway into crypto assets. When stablecoin activity slows, it usually reflects reduced buying intent. This decline does not happen in isolation. It connects closely with market sentiment, liquidity flows, and trading behavior across exchanges.
The drop in stablecoin activity comes at a time when market participants expected renewed momentum. Instead, the Ethereum network shows signs of reduced engagement. This change raises concerns about short term demand and overall crypto buying power.
Why Stablecoin Activity Matters In Crypto Markets
Stablecoins play a critical role in the crypto ecosystem. They act as a bridge between fiat currency and digital assets. Traders use them to enter and exit positions quickly without relying on traditional banking systems. This makes stablecoin activity a strong indicator of market health.
When stablecoin activity rises, it often signals incoming capital. Traders prepare to deploy funds into assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum. On the other hand, falling activity suggests hesitation. Investors may hold back due to uncertainty or lack of confidence.
The current decline in stablecoin activity reflects a cautious market environment. Traders appear less aggressive in deploying capital. This trend impacts liquidity across exchanges and reduces volatility in the short term.
USDT And USDC Trends Reflect Changing Investor Behavior
USDT and USDC trends provide valuable insights into market dynamics. These stablecoins dominate trading pairs across major exchanges. Changes in their usage directly affect liquidity and price movements.
Recent data shows fewer transfers and lower circulation velocity for both assets. This suggests traders hold stablecoins instead of actively using them. Such behavior often appears during uncertain market phases.
Crypto buying power depends heavily on stablecoin availability and movement. When investors pause activity, it limits the market’s ability to rally. This creates a cycle where low activity leads to reduced price action.
What This Means For The Short Term Market Outlook
The current decline in stablecoin activity does not necessarily signal a long term downturn. Instead, it highlights a temporary pause in market momentum. Such phases allow markets to reset before the next move.
Investors should watch Ethereum network usage closely. A recovery in activity could signal renewed interest and capital inflows. Similarly, rising USDT USDC trends would indicate stronger buying intent. Market cycles often include periods of low activity. These phases test investor patience and confidence. Understanding these patterns helps traders make informed decisions.
Final Thoughts On The Current Market Phase
The drop in stablecoin activity highlights a cautious market environment. Investors appear to wait for clearer signals before committing capital. This behavior has reduced crypto buying power and slowed Ethereum network usage.
While the short term outlook remains uncertain, such phases often create opportunities. Traders who track stablecoin trends can gain an edge. Monitoring these indicators helps identify potential market reversals. A recovery in stablecoin activity could quickly change sentiment. Until then, the market may continue to move with limited momentum.
BTCUSD: Bullish Gartley Support Confirmed Targeting $155,627.72This is a follow-up to the previous bullish entry idea from 2 months ago at the bottom of the channel.
Over the last several weeks BTC has been putting in a bottom at the bottom of this channel both in terms of putting in a Double Bottom on the weekly timeframe and confirming a Bullish Inverted Hammer on last month's Monthly Close; in this time BTC has been taking back the 200-week moving average and given that BTC rarely stays below the 200-week Moving Average for long it is statistically likely that BTC begins a new bull cycle from here. We've also seen a significant rise in Demand Deposits and Physical Currency in Circulation which is likely to lead to this new money chasing fixed supply assets which is a category BTC fits perfectly into.
This macro bottom aligns with the combined PCZ of a Bullish Cypher and Bullish Gartley and seems to be setting up to repeat the end of the 2021-2022 Cycle Top to Bottom Fractal and is trading above the previous Cycle Highs. If this Cycle ends like it did in 2022 we should begin a new uptrend that can take BTC all the way up to the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension at the top of the Linear Regression Channel which aligns wit the $155,672.72 area.
It would seem that Bitcoin is trading around the previous Cycle High Horizontal Support/Resistance Zone. BTC has been holding above the lower end of the zone at $64,899.00 and has been finding resistance at upper end of the zone at $73,835.57, BTC is yet to break above the upper end of this zone but if it does BTC will likely be able to begin it's next major move to the LOBF (the middle line of the channel) where it might then find resistance but if it manages to push above that level too it could later rise to the 2.618 and perhaps even the 3.168-3.618 Extensions before pulling back.
The RSI has also begun to break free from it's downtrend and lastly the USDT.D has been showing some signs of potential weakness as explained here:
EURJPY: Consolidation Hiding Opportunities (Gartley & Butterfly)The EUR/JPY has been in a period of consolidation since the start of 2026. Now, many traders see consolidative markets as “boring” or offering no opportunities—but the truth is, they can be full of setups if you know where to look.
Today, I’m focusing on two potential harmonic patterns:
A Bearish Gartley on the Daily & a Bearish Butterfly on the 4-Hour – Now, I’ll be honest—I’m not usually a fan of butterfly patterns because of their risky completion points. But this particular formation is rare in that it aligns with structural support and resistance, giving me the level of protection I like to see before taking a trade.
S&P-500 Futures Bullish Gartley Entry at 200-day SMAThe Nasdaq-100 Futures have been holding up in the range printing potential Bullish Cup with Handle Pattern but the SPX Futures have come down to nearly a 0.886 retrace, completing a Bullish Gartley aligning with the 200-day SMA.
Oil has recently spiked above $110 which was likely the trigger for the SPX's decline, but at this point is likely to come crashing back down below $100 if not just for a week or so.
During this time we can likely see the SPX stage a recovery from this recent decline as lower oil prices will lead to lower volatility(VIX), which will lead to a lower US Dollar Index, and higher equities and Bitcoin/Crypto.
I currently think we will see balance sheet expansion and that the market is going to price that in with one last blow-off top push to the upside as I detailed here:
This weekend's opening decline just simply serves as a more precise entry that one could even size up in the futures market. I think that it would make sense to take some profits near the top of the range at the 2.618 extension $6,921.75 but I also think that this could serve as the preferred entry into the bigger blow-off top move I'm suspecting can hit as high as $7.6-$9k as detailed in the higher timeframe idea above.
Taking Profit on BTC Shorts; Looking to Get Tiny Long ExposureOriginally Posted: 02/05/2026
Reposted For Compliance: 02/13/2026
BTC and MSTR are at potential PCZs of Bullish Gartley; The two assets moved down leading to MSTR earnings and negative unrealized losses expectations. I do think that BTC will ultimately move back down, but from where it is now, looking at all of the downside short leverage that has been building at these lower levels, I think there is a high chance of it short squeezing to the upside and for it to be fast and violent move up to around 90-106k before then confirming a lower high and going back down to even lower lows in a fashion similar to the green projection I have drawn out. Meanwhile we could see MSTR pump back to around $200. In this scenario I would see these pumps as nothing more than Bear Cat Bounces and would be looking to reenter my shorts on these bounces where we could then continue the main bearish trade. Here is a link to a chart of the original underlying bearish trade :
The short squeeze we could be set up for is something similar to what we got near the end of 2019 where BTC was in a bear trend but rallied 40% in 2 days within that bear trend before continuing much lower into 2020. Here is the chart focused around that time period:
At the time it was the greatest BTC short squeeze in the history of the asset yet despite how great it was it still ultimately went lower later so I will be on the lookout for this kind of movement once more as short positions accelerate not only at the bullish trendline but also at the PCZ of Bullish Gartleys on both MSTR and BTC.
I suspect MSTR could pump 20-40% from the PCZ and in terms of BTC I think we will get price action similar to what I have projected in the white brush marker.
I actually posted this last week but it was taken down by a mod so this is a repost which should now be compliant enough for them; Since then, BTC pumped 15% and MSTR is up over 20% but we have since pulled back decently towards the entry zone so there may be way more upside to go from here. However; I have mainly reposted this for archival purposes.
On a side note CLSK, another crypto miner looks like it could be set to rise from it's 0.886 PCZ of a Bullish Bat around 10 dollars all the way back up to around 18 dollars.
Bullish 2021 Bitcoin Fractal Suggests Bitcoin has BottomedBitcoin is sitting at the PCZ of a what can be plotted as both a Bullish Cypher and a Bullish gartley and on the 5D timeframe it is below the 200 Period SMA which it usually doesn't stay below for long; and is also sitting a the 1.618 Standard Deviation demand line of a Linear regression Channel while exhibiting Bullish Divergence on the MACD and starting to show a second recovery from oversold zones in the RSI after what was a sharp secondary decline into oversold zones and lastly on the price decline, the ATR spiked up but has since started to return back to where it came from which signals the downside volatility might be waning here.
All of this suggests to me that on a technical level Bitcoin has indeed bottomed and if we are to complete the same harmonic fractal as we did leading to and during the completion of out last Bullish Cypher in 2020-2022, our next target would align with the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension which happens to be around the top of the channel BTC has developed over the years and would also bring BTC back on track to keeping up with the SPX which has already reached its 2.618 extension and may be headed for the 3.168 extension next as seen in this fractal of the SPX here:
The other week I closed my shorts on BTC and started to position for a deadcat-bounce with a target around 106k but upon looking back at some older charts and targets and seeing the Japanese Inflation numbers read below 2%, I came to the conclusion that BTC might be enabled to rise and complete its fractal fully which would take it to the 2.618 extension and given all the confluence at both the current entry and potential future exit I think it will probably be a good idea to raise the full profit taking target to $155.4k
Once BTC catches up with the SPX in terms of extensions and fractal completions; this may then lead to the ultimate decline in both Bitcoin and the S&P-500, but that bearish angle is just me thinking further ahead. For now and for the time being I will be focused on the Bullish higher Bullish targets.
ETHUSD: Bullish Gartley with Bullish Divergence 10.3HR TimeframeETH Thus far has held up well at the Bullish Butterfly PCZ that I mentioned in the last idea I posted on ETH here: since then, I'v realized that this Butterfly PCZ aligns with the 0.886 retrace from the macro low to high and at these levels the price action has closely followed the initial projection marked in the gray with having an initial bounce followed by a secondary retrace back down to the lows. If this projection is to continue to playout we should expect to see ETH break free from this local zone and go for the more extreme highs.
In the process of making these lows it has developed a Bullish Gartley visible on slightly lower timeframes and the Gartley aligns with the macro 0.886 retrace and the Butterfly 1.902 HOP. I have decided to hide the butterfly on this chart post simply because I want to highlight the Gartley that has formed but you can see on the chart I referenced before that the Butterfly is also here.
On top of forming this Bullish Gartley, we can also see that there is a notable amount of Bullish Divergence on the MACD and RSI and that the ATR has come down fully from the pervious spike meaning that ETH from here has likely confirmed the low and will be set to make higher highs soon as all the timeframes are now aligned. I have much higher targets overall when looking at the daily chart pattern but if I were just to play this lower time frame gartley I would first target the line of best fit at around $3,390 from there we can look to see if we can hit the higher target presented in the higher timeframe idea.
Bitcoin’s Next Push Be Loading (Clues: USDT.D% + S&P500)Following Trump’s speech, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) began to rise.
Currently, Bitcoin is back inside the heavy support zone ($78,260-$64,850). Although the break wasn’t accompanied by strong momentum, it was expected to re-enter this zone.
From a pattern analysis perspective, it seems that on the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin could resume its upward move with the help of a Bullish Gartley Harmonic Pattern.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory, it seems the main wave Y hasn't yet completed, so we can anticipate an upward wave in the coming hours.
The situation with USDT.D%( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) indicates a potential decline, which could support price increases in the crypto market, especially for Bitcoin.
Additionally, the S&P 500 ( FX:SPX500 ) is in a good state, having moved above its support zone again. If Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P holds, this could assist Bitcoin’s rise.
I expect Bitcoin to rise at least to $67,521 and liquidate a notable portion of short positions and fill the CME Gap($67,925-$67,760). If the upward momentum is strong and it breaks the key $68,000 resistance, we could look forward to even higher targets.
First Target: $67,521
Second Target: Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($70,000-$68,650)
Stop Loss(SL): $63,000(Worst)
Points may shift as the market evolves
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $66,700-$66,090
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $64,220-$63,610
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $62,530-$61,670
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $60,000-$58,000
CME Gap: $84,560-$79,660
CME Gap: $54,545-$52,980
What’s your outlook for Bitcoin in the coming hours?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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