GOLD - A countertrend correction ahead of the news ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is bouncing from 4140 and forming a counter-trend correction toward areas of interest ahead of the news. The fundamental backdrop remains weak.
The dollar maintains its bullish trend, the fundamental backdrop is weak, and geopolitics remains tense. Rising oil prices amid a lack of progress in US–Iran talks via Qatar increased inflation concerns and supported Treasury yields and the dollar. A short-term bounce occurred after the release of August core PCE, but the positive
Trend Line Break
GOLD Institutional Market Structure & Liquidity Analysis
The chart is showing a developing bearish market structure after a significant rejection from the upper supply region. Price is currently trading around 4,164, with the most important structural decision area located between 4,003 and 4,390.
The market has already produced several BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) signals. These indicate that the market has transitioned through different phases rather than moving in one uninterrupted direction.
At the current location,
M30 Ascending Channel: 4,185 Plays to 4,142!
Macro Backdrop: Resilient US Dollar & Firm Treasury Yields Cap Bullion Relief
Gold (XAUUSD) trades near 4,172.090 (-0.08% floating) on Thursday morning, October 01, 2026, consolidating within an internal counter-trend channel following the swift rejection off the 4,220 swing high (LH). While structural sovereign debt debasement concerns and steady central bank bullion purchases maintain an overarching long-term safety floor, short-term price discovery remains constrained by the US Dollar Index
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave Setup From Buy Zone
Gold is showing a potential bullish recovery structure after reacting from the lower support area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be building a new upside Elliott Wave sequence, with price currently holding above the Buy zone wave 3.
The key idea is simple: if buyers continue defending the lower buy zone, gold may push higher toward the resistance levels above, then extend toward the final wave 5 target.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,167, after bo
ETHUSDT - Consolidation (correction) on a bullish trendBINANCE:ETHUSDT.P is consolidating in the range of 2630–2800. The market maintains a bullish trend, and before the continuation of growth, MMs may form a local manipulation.
Bitcoin maintains a bullish trend; however, after another distribution, the market shifts into stagnation. A consolidation is forming before a possible continuation of growth. The current market state is a liquidity hunt phase.
Ethereum continues to consolidate after strong growth. Within the correction inside the rang
XAUUSD — Bullish Recovery From Wave 5 Low
Gold is showing a bullish recovery after completing the previous bearish wave near the lower support area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be shifting into a short-term upside structure, with price now building higher lows above the recent wave (5) bottom.
The key idea is simple: gold may pull back slightly into the buy zone first, but as long as buyers defend that area, the next bullish wave can continue toward the Fibonacci target and the upper resistance zone.
⟡ Marke
US INTEREST + HOUSE BUBBLE US + ETF OUTFLOW MAIN REASON BTC 72KBitcoin is holding around 84K+, but the rally is losing steam and the macro picture is turning against it. Here is my bearish scenario.
Data shows that ETF getting step by step out after the cycle of BTC
one of the signals of manipulation crash market makers playing with volume, is the speed to use to increase the volume, and to force to have more up volume, with the goal of upcoming crash.
1. US interest rates
Treasury yields are climbing and analysts now talk about a 6% 10-year yield. High
GOLD - Countertrend correction before newsICMARKETS:XAUUSD , after a bearish distribution, is forming a correction with the aim of hunting for liquidity. The market remains under pressure from the bears and in a downtrend...
The dollar is consolidating but remains strong. A hawkish Fed and rising interest rates make gold unattractive.
Gold remains vulnerable. Any recovery is likely to be sold unless Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report significantly disappoints and reduces expectations of two rate hikes this year. The nearest re
SMC Trendline + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 + 1.5–1.7 Target ModelSMC Trendline + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 + 1.5–1.7 Target Model
This model combines Trendline Breakout, Liquidity Sweep, Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension to build a structured SMC setup. The main idea is to use the trendline for direction, the 0.50–0.618 area for retracement/entry context, and the 1.5–1.7 extension area for potential target delivery.
1. TRENDLINE — FIND THE DIRECTION
First identify a clear trendline connecting meaningful swing highs or swing lows.
For a bullish setup
XAUUSD — Weekly Bearish Map Toward 3,850
Gold is entering next week with a heavy structure after failing to hold above the recovery zone. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD is still trading under the larger downtrend pressure, and the current price action looks more like a bearish continuation setup than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The key idea is simple: gold is still below the main sell zone and below the larger downtrend structure. If buyers cannot reclaim resistance, sellers may continue to push price toward the l
Rising Trendline Breakdown 4,300 Resistance Liquidity in Focus🔹 XAUUSD is showing a clear shift in market structure after price broke below the rising trendline of the previous consolidation pattern. The rejection from the descending resistance trendline near the 4,400–4,450 region was followed by sustained selling pressure, with price now trading below the 4,300 resistance area. The breakdown suggests that the former support zone has become an important resistance level, while the highlighted lower liquidity area around 3,950–4,000 remains a key area to m
BITCOIN - Long squeeze of the liquidity zone within an uptrendBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P maintains a local bullish trend; however, after strong growth, the market is entering a phase of consolidation and correction within the range.
Spot BTC ETF inflows continue but are slowing; however, the market is supported by emerging hype and relatively strong SP500 & NQ indices.
Technically, after another distribution, a correction phase is forming; market makers (MMs) are interested in the liquidity zone of 82900–82300. The goal of the current correction is to accumul
WTI 4H | Bullish Structure Above Key SupportWTI crude oil is maintaining a broader bullish structure on the 4H chart, with price recently pulling back from the 106–107 area and finding support near the 92–93 region.
🔹 Major Support: The 92.0–93.0 zone has acted as an important structural area and is currently supporting the latest recovery.
🔹 Trendline: Price is respecting a rising trendline from the recent low, keeping the short-term structure constructive while it remains intact.
🔹 Current Price Action: WTI is trading around 97.6, wi
XAUUSD — Strong Bearish Start Inside Channel
Gold is opening the new week with strong bearish pressure after failing to recover above the descending channel structure. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD is still trading inside a clear downtrend, and the current movement may continue lower to complete the next bearish Elliott Wave sequence.
The key idea is simple: gold remains below the Sell zone wave 5, and as long as buyers cannot reclaim this area, the bearish channel may continue pushing price toward the lower Fibonacci
Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 28/09/2026M30 Timeframe
The invalidation level flagged in the last update has now been hit. Gold lost the reclaimed H1 order block, broke below the 4,257 - 4,266 zone that had been holding as support, and accelerated lower in a series of large bearish candles, printing a low near 4,194 and now trading around 4,202. The short-term absorption read from earlier in the week is off the table, and the structure has shifted clearly back to the downside.
The macro backdrop explains the pressure. The Fed's first
GOLD - Correction to 4315-4345 before fallingICMARKETS:XAUUSD technically maintains a bearish trend amid the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising interest rates, which set the medium-term tone for the markets.
The dollar remains strong and may continue to develop a bullish trend; however, there will be quite a lot of news in the coming week. Focus on: PCE, GDP, PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls. At the same time, one should not forget about oil—a rise in its price could increase pressure on gold. Increased volatility and variability in intraday direc
ORDER BLOCK + FIBONACCI + LIQUIDITY SWEEP | MODELORDER BLOCK + FIBONACCI + LIQUIDITY SWEEP | PRECISION CONFIRMATION MODEL
A high-quality setup can develop when Liquidity Sweep, Fibonacci retracement, and Order Block align at the same price area. The objective is not to enter simply because price reaches an Order Block or Fibonacci level, but to wait for liquidity to be taken and then demand confirmation from price action.
THE CORE SEQUENCE
Liquidity Sweep → Fibonacci Alignment → Order Block → Structure Confirmation → Entry
BULLISH MODEL
P
HYPEUSDT - Consolidation Before the Trend ContinuesBINANCE:HYPEUSDT.P remains a favorite in the current market. In addition to maintaining its bullish trend, the altcoin is also forming a consolidation above key levels...
Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop is challenging, but the market continues to receive support from broader market conditions. The flagship cryptocurrency is forming a consolidation phase following another distribution phase, which points to underlying market strength.
HYPEUSDT is forming a conso
XAU/USD 1H — Support Hold Could Trigger a Recovery Toward $4,370Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,293 on the 1-hour chart after reacting positively from the highlighted $4,253–$4,270 support zone.
Major Support: $4,253–$4,270 — price has repeatedly found buying interest in this area.
Immediate Resistance: ~$4,320 — first important hurdle for the recovery.
Major Resistance: ~$4,360–$4,375 — previous supply/rejection area and the key upside zone marked on the chart.
Price has recently broken above the short-term descending trendline, s
BITCOIN - Bullish trend. Consolidation before rallyBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P previously went through a trend reversal phase and broke above the key 83K resistance. Consolidation is forming above this zone, hinting at further upside, however...
The fundamental backdrop remains unstable. However, profit-taking in BTC is currently not particularly strong, and there is no significant selling pressure. Consolidation following the strong rally, along with the weak reaction to negative news, points to market strength. Spot ETF inflows are gaining momentu
GOLD - The Hunt for Liquidity (Correction) Before the Drop ICMARKETS:XAUUSD has paused its decline but remains under pressure. Market stagnation could trigger a rebound before another move lower. The key events are the Trump–Xi meeting, oil price dynamics, and Treasury yields.
The fundamental backdrop for gold remains weak. The market could form a correction amid the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents, but the medium-term tone for the metal remains bearish, driven by a strong dollar and rising oil prices. The dollar and major indices
XAUUSD — Bullish Recovery Before Weekly Close
Gold is showing a bullish recovery attempt after reacting strongly from the lower end wave 5 area near 4,245–4,250. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be shifting from the previous bearish sequence into a short-term bullish correction, especially as price is now trying to hold above the Buy test liquidity zone before the weekly candle closes.
The key idea is simple: if gold can stay above the lower liquidity support, the market may continue recovering toward the next resist
XAUUSD — Wave 5 Drop Before Rebound
Gold is still moving inside a bearish channel after failing to hold above the short-term support area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may still need one more downside leg to complete wave (5), before a light corrective rebound appears from the lower buy zone.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue lower first toward the End wave 5 / Buy zone, then create a short ABC recovery back toward the resistance area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,263, aft
BTCUSD Trading Setup: Trendline Break & Retest | Market Analysis
BTCUSD Trading Setup: Trendline Break & Retest | Market Analysis
In this educational BTCUSD chart, we study a Trendline Break & Retest setup and explain how price action can be analyzed step by step using market structure, candlestick behavior, breakout confirmation, retest, entry planning, stop-loss placement, and target identification.
This chart is designed to help traders understand why each group of candles forms, what the candle behavior is showing, and how the overall market structure d























