NBIS (Nebius) & 
NVIDIA: both weak as hell...NBIS short is already sitting on a solid profit. You could even take a small TP2 here, but lower targets still look likely. Distribution has clearly been underway for some time now, and larger players are joining the short side as well (bottom panel).$238 - $240 could be the next possible TP, with a final target around $203 - $205 for example. Bearish divergences are showing up in series across multiple indicators. A drop below $200 is possible, but there should be a strong bounce somewhere around that area, so a full close on the short would make sense if it gets there. Earnings are about 5 weeks away, so prices could be significantly lower by then.
NVIDIA on the weekly chart has been weakening since ATHs, and record-breaking earnings already look more like a distribution phase - results simply don't get much better from here. Classic sell-the-news behavior. Probably too early to think about a long position. We already had a full 5-wave Elliott structure, so a proper correction looks more likely now.$190 - $192 is the first support zone, also aligning with the 200 SMA on the daily chart. Weekly RSI is only at 38.8 and still trending lower, which suggests plenty of room for a deeper correction.
The main weekly structure on NVIDIA is that large rising wedge that has been building since April 2025. Visually, it reflects Elliott Wave exhaustion quite well. There will probably be a dead cat bounce at some point - I'd put the odds around 90% - so the main strategy is to catch the bottom beneath the dead cat.
So either $190+ or $180 - $183, which is horizontal support, an ascending trendline, and also the lower boundary of the wedge. A breakdown below that level would be very interesting.
At current prices, this still feels like trying to catch a falling knife, doesn't it?
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