USD/JPY(20250804)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
① The US non-farm payrolls rose by 73,000 jobs in July, far below the expected 110,000; the previous two months saw a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, prompting traders to fully price in two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.
② The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly fell to 48, below the expected 49.5 and the lowest level since October 2024.
③ The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July reached a five-month high.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
148.53
Support and Resistance Levels:
152.12
150.78
149.91
147.15
146.28
144.94
Trading Strategy:
If it breaks above 148.53, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price being 149.91. If it breaks below 147.15, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price being 146.28.
Pin Bar
USD/JPY(20250729)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
After gold prices soared to an all-time high of more than $3,500 an ounce in April, the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that fund managers have increased their bullish bets to the highest level in 16 weeks.
Technical analysis:
Today's buy and sell boundaries:
148.19
Support and resistance levels:
149.23
148.84
148.59
147.78
147.53
147.14
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 148.59, consider buying, the first target price is 148.84
If the price breaks through 148.19, consider selling, the first target price is 147.78
USD/JPY(20250728)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Trump announced that the US and Europe reached a trade agreement: 15% tariffs on the EU, $600 billion in investment in the US, zero tariffs on the US by EU countries, the EU will purchase US military equipment, and will purchase US energy products worth $750 billion. However, the US and Europe have different opinions on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers medicines and steel and aluminum. Von der Leyen: 15% tariff rate is the best result that the European Commission can achieve.
US Secretary of Commerce: The deadline for tariff increase on August 1 will not be extended. The United States will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
147.47
Support and resistance levels:
148.58
148.17
147.90
147.04
146.77
146.35
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 147.90, consider buying, the first target price is 148.17
If the price breaks through 147.47, consider selling, the first target price is 147.04
USD/JPY(20250724)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. President Trump continued to lash out at the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, but seemed to back off from the remaining plan to fire Chairman Powell. "I think he's doing a bad job, but he's going to be out of office soon anyway," Trump said in an exchange with reporters at the White House. "In eight months, he'll be out of office."
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
146.60
Support and resistance levels:
147.70
147.29
147.02
146.18
145.92
145.51
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 146.60, consider buying in, with the first target price at 147.02
If the price breaks through 146.18, consider selling in, with the first target price at 145.92
USD/JPY(20250714)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
① Fed's Goolsbee: The latest tariff threat may delay rate cuts. ② The Fed responded to the White House's "accusations": The increase in building renovation costs partly reflects unforeseen construction conditions. ③ "Fed's megaphone": The dispute over building renovations has challenged the Fed's independence again, and it is expected that no rate cuts will be made this month. ④ Hassett: Whether Trump fires Powell or not, the Fed's answer to the headquarters renovation is the key.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
147.02
Support and resistance levels:
148.39
147.88
147.55
146.49
146.15
145.64
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 147.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 147.88
If the price breaks through 147.02, consider selling, and the first target price is 146.49
USD/JPY(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.79
Support and resistance levels:
145.47
144.84
144.43
143.15
142.74
142.12
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 144.43, consider buying in, the first target price is 144.84
If the price breaks through 143.79, consider selling in, the first target price is 143.15
USD/JPY(20250613)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The monthly rate of the core PPI in the United States in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in the Fed's two interest rate cuts this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.73
Support and resistance levels:
145.09
144.58
144.25
143.21
142.88
142.37
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.73, consider buying in, the first target price is 144.25
If the price breaks through 143.21, consider selling in, the first target price is 142.88
USD/JPY(20250604)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Logan: We should focus on achieving the 2% inflation target rather than trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls; Bostic: We still think there may be a rate cut this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.47
Support and resistance levels:
145.19
144.55
144.13
142.81
142.39
141.75
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 144.13, consider buying in, with the first target price of 144.55
If the price breaks through 143.47, consider selling in, with the first target price of 142.81
USD/JPY(20250429)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The U.S. Treasury Department raised its second quarter debt forecast to $514 billion. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The "X Day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon.
Technical analysis:
Today's long-short boundary:
142.62
Support and resistance levels:
144.52
143.81
143.35
141.89
141.43
140.72
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 142.62, consider buying, the first target price is 143.35
If the price breaks through 141.89, consider selling, the first target price is 141.43
USD/JPY(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June
②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
142.79
Support and resistance levels:
143.94
143.51
143.23
142.34
142.06
141.63
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 142.79, consider buying, the first target price is 143.23
If the price breaks through 142.34, consider selling, the first target price is 142.06
USD/JPY(20250416)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.10
Support and resistance levels
144.08
143.72
143.48
142.72
142.48
142.11
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.10, consider buying, the first target price is 143.48
If the price breaks through 142.72, consider selling, the first target price is 142.48
A poem of the marketIn the financial markets, the Pin Bar candle is like a poem silently composed within the charts, a poem that tells the tale of the battle between buyers and sellers. This candle, with its long shadow, narrates the story of effort and defeat, as if one side sought to conquer the sky or split the earth, but in the end, was pushed back, leaving only a shadow of its aspirations.
**The Bullish Pin Bar** is like a poet who, in the darkness of night, sees a star and, with hope for light, draws its long shadow toward the earth. It says, "The sellers tried to pull me down, but I, with the light of hope, rose again and conquered the sky."
**The Bearish Pin Bar** is like a poet who, at the peak of day, sees a dark cloud and, with fear of darkness, casts its long shadow toward the sky. It says, "The buyers tried to lift me up, but I, with the force of reality, returned to the ground and embraced the darkness."
The Pin Bar candle, with its small body and long shadow, is like a poem that encapsulates all the emotions of the market in a single moment. This candle, in its simplicity and beauty, reminds us that sometimes efforts do not yield results, and sometimes, turning back is the only way forward. Within this candle lies the story of hope and despair, effort and defeat, light and darkness—a story that repeats itself every day in the financial markets, each time narrated in a new language.
"Taken from artificial intelligence."
Long Idea on CC1! (Cocoa)1)Climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The region accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa production. Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation.
2) Seasonality gives us a bullish pattern which is 98% correlated with the actual price
3)quantitative data shows 80% win rate with a good profit factor
4) The price rejected the 50 EMA forming a Pin Bar Candlestick pattern
5) The price also bounced on a demand zone
6) Price is undervalued against several benchmarks
Strong EUR? - A EUR/USD AnalysisEUR/USD has displayed bullish characteristics over the last couple of weeks.
- We have reach a high in the market @ 1.095.
- This high was made after a bullish A,B,C,D pattern aka (Trend).
- In bullish markets, prices tend to find support at the previous high, the previous high in this market (To me) is @ 1.085.
- We currently have made a bullish pin bar rejection candle on 3/19/2024.
- Currently we have untapped orders at 1.098, this is where I believe prices want to go in the next month.
- Breaking the 1.098 level, could lead to a bigger move up toward 1.11.
** as always, trade smart, trade responsible, and manage the risk as much as the reward **
EUR/USD Builds Bullish Momentum with Strong Support and Pin BarAfter bottoming at 1.0760 exactly one week ago, FX:EURUSD has started to consolidate, forming what appears to be a base.
Since then, dips below 1.08 have been consistently bought up, culminating in a strong bullish Pin Bar candle yesterday.
To further support this bullish outlook, this base is forming at a key confluence of support levels, reinforcing the potential for an upward move.
With this in mind, I am looking to buy this pair, ideally on a dip, to ensure a positive risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
My target for a reversal is set at 1.0950, with respect to 1.09 resistance (this could serve as short term trader's target)
Strong buy on BitcoinThe price has seen the main break even and made a beautiful pin bar. It works as a strong buy signal. The stop loss is behind the shadow. The last target is the all-time high. As Bitcoin moves, every other coin moves in the same direction, too, so you can have long positions on other assets according to your personal strategy and entry point.
Bullish Divergence + Pinbar in TLTI'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really start moving. There is some overhead resistance that the market will need to overcome and I expect plenty of volatility, so safest play may be to have a stop just below the 23' lows and then stay hands off and give it room to run.
GOLD - Pin bar bullishA bullish pin bar has formed on the gold chart, suggesting a potential rise in gold prices. If the price breaks above the 2325 resistance level, this would confirm the bullish trend. It is advisable to set a stop-loss in the 2310-2305 range to manage risk in case of a breakout.
Liquidity Hunt PatternLiquidity Hunt Pattern
Uncover Hidden Opportunities in the Market
Introduction:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market. By understanding how this pattern forms and its implications, traders can gain an edge in uncovering hidden opportunities and making informed trading decisions.
What is the Liquidity Hunt Pattern?
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is characterized by a series of price movements that create a distinct "W" or "M" shape on the chart. This pattern forms when large institutional players, known as "liquidity providers" enter the market to buy or sell large quantities of assets. Their actions create temporary imbalances in supply and demand, leading to price swings that can be exploited by astute traders.
Identifying the Pattern:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern consists of three key elements:
The "W" or "M" shape: This is the most recognizable feature of the pattern and is formed by a series of price swings that create the distinctive letter shape.
Volume spikes: The pattern is often accompanied by significant volume spikes, indicating the presence of large institutional activity.
Breakout or breakdown: The pattern typically resolves with a breakout or breakdown, signaling a potential change in the market direction.
Trading the Liquidity Hunt Pattern:
Traders can use the Liquidity Hunt Pattern to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By understanding the dynamics of the pattern, traders can:
Anticipate potential turning points: The pattern can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market trend.
Identify high-probability trading setups: The pattern can be used to identify areas where the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Manage risk effectively: The pattern can help traders set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage their risk exposure.
Conclusion:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a valuable tool for traders of all levels. By understanding its formation and implications, traders can gain an edge in the market and uncover hidden opportunities for profitable trades.
GBPUSD, Short, AB=CD Gartley222, Extended pin bar at key levelWe might play out this as a Gartley222. Not entering at the 78% retracement level,
but we have a great pin bar on the 2Hour chart at a very Key level. Close below the previous major low and a 1 to 1 AB-CD move.
Volume profile- the pin bar occurred on raising volume which for me indicates stops taken, but also it's what Wyckoff will call nonvalidation, huge volume, but the bar closed at its lowest. Nonvalidation is a good edge at turning points.
The red box is the 61% retracement of the AD leg of the Gartley. Some people use this as a target. I manage the trade differently but wanted to illustrate that even this target provides a good Rirk/Reward rate.
P.S. For the harmonic pattern junkies: the red dotted line might be interpreted in the 1-hour chart as a 3 drives pattern, entering at the level was going to be great. I was personally late for it.
NFLX Short: Gap Fill and High RSIHey All,
I wanted to get your feedback on this analysis.
I am solely basing my opinion based on the RSI indicator, MACD and candlesticks on the daily chart.
Although earnings help NASDAQ:NFLX to go up slightly. It had to restest a strong resistance at 562.46. Once it reached the resistance the bears took control which resulted in a pretty strong bearish pinbar, usually signaling a reverse in trend. Along with the pin bar the RSI is way oversold and the MACD is looking like it is being set up for a bearish divergence, where the price action is trending up, but the MACD is trending down. In addition, there was also a gap up during earnings and that gap will need to be filled.
This signals to me that the there will be a short, even if just to fill the gap up.
What do you guys think?






















