Seasonality

The Win Rate Myth The "Win Rate Myth" is one of the most persistent traps in retail trading. Many traders hyper-focus on finding high-accuracy setups, believing that an 80% win rate is the key to consistency. However, mathematical expectancy tells a different story: frequency without asymmetry leads to ruin. 📉 1. The Math Behind Strategy A vs. Strategy B: Consider two distinct trading systems: - Strategy A (High Win Rate / Negative Asymmetry): Win Rate: 70% / Average Win: 1R | Average Loss: 2.5R **Result: N

by SadashiTrading

Bitcoin- more downside but the bottom is here Micro: price is rotating inside the range built after the August impulse, roughly 76k–81k. The 80k supply has now been rejected twice and the last push above 81.5k failed to hold, so the path of least resistance is back toward the range low. I expect a sweep of 76.6k and possible continuation into the low 70s to take out the liquidity resting under the base of the move. Macro: that's a pullback inside structure, not a trend change. The 60k shelf held for six months of accumulation before the br

CELR weekly update: Upside continuation.The Celer Network (CELR) token finally printed a red weekly candle in its seventh week since the uptrend began. This represents a healthy development, with a minor cool-down expected. Sell-side pressure in the spot market remains subdued but sustained, with upside momentum stalling mostly due to a lack of buyer demand while traders await further clarity from BTC and major altcoins. The 0.00210–0.00220 range held as a support cluster, flipping previous resistance as estimated last week; this posi

USDCHF Short Setup: Fundamental, COT and Seasonal Alignment My bias on USDCHF remains bearish based on alignment across multiple factors: Fundamental outlook US fundamentals are showing signs of weakness, reducing support for the USD. CHF fundamentals remain comparatively strong, supporting further Swiss franc appreciation. COT positioning COT data shows declining USD positions. Non-commercial traders are reducing exposure and offloading long positions, adding to the bearish USD outlook. Seasonality USD seasonality currently favou

by fahimsafdar777

The Road to a New All-Time High A correction in the Nasdaq Composite toward the 27,000 area could potentially create an important foundation for the next medium-term bullish move and a return toward previous record highs. The key point is that by “new records,” I am referring to a retest and potential breakout of the previous all-time high, rather than simply a short-term recovery. If the Nasdaq finds support around the 27,000 level, this area could become an important base from which the index begins its next upward movemen

by Sashacharkhchi

Silver Long-Term Outlook: Is the Correction Over?Over the past several months, silver has experienced a remarkable long-term bullish movement, rising from around $30 per ounce toward the $120 level. From a technical perspective, such a strong and extended rally would normally be expected to experience a significant correction. However, the depth and duration of that correction were difficult to determine in advance. Following the decline from approximately $120 to $55 per ounce, the $55 area can now be considered a major long-term bottom and

by Sashacharkhchi

USDZAR long term buy.expecting long term htf buys. a weaker rand, rising inflation and a worsening state of living further suports this

by kamogelo_dricks

August Jobs Preview - Good News Is Bad News?Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-August comments kept the focus on inflation over soft labor data. What markets had priced in: Pre-report, markets had meaningful odds of a Fed rate hike at the mid-September meeting (roughly even-to-slightly-favored in some measures, higher in the week prior amid inflation concerns). The weak print and revisions cut those odds sharply—CME FedWatch-type probabilities of a September hike fell. Stocks rose, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened as the data red

GBPUSD GBPUSD – Current Bias: Bearish This week has been dynamic. I initially anticipated a continuation of bullish momentum from Tuesday, but the structure has shifted and the higher-probability narrative now leans clearly bearish. On the 30-minute timeframe, clean liquidity sits just above current price. I expect a potential bullish push during the London session open (10:30 AM SA time) to sweep that liquidity. If price sweeps the high and shows clear rejection, the path of least resistance points

by CoolSlavesFx

Top U.S. stocks with positive seasonality in September 2026 September is historically the weakest month of the year for U.S. stock markets due to the so-called “September Effect.” Top indices as Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 have historically average negative returns during this month. However, some companies tend to trend against this seasonal pattern. We’ve identified few of them, let’s take a look. 🔷 AMAZON 👉 NASDAQ:AMZN 16 POSITIVE MONTHS VS. 14 NEGATIVE MONTHS FROM 1997 🟢 AVERAGE RETURN IN SEPTEMBER: +5.37% 🔷 COST 👉 NASDAQ:COST

by thequantscience

Green September for SPY?SPY closes August pinned at 761.6, right on the 762.34 shelf that has capped every attempt lower since the late-August rotation. Structure is still a range: 772.10 top, 764.67 as the internal pivot, and a demand block at 759.35–759.48 that hasn't been tested cleanly. The path I'm watching on the 15m: a sweep below 759.35 to take out the stops resting under the range low, followed by a reclaim of 762.34 and a rotation toward the 770 area. Failure to reclaim within a few candles invalidates it.

The Top 3 Indicators For Silver Its difficult to run a business but driving the business is what makes the motivation worth it. So how do you drive a business? you need only two things 1- Ball pen 2- A book Thats it!! Just write down your expenses, income ,and profit (a cash book) Now look at this chart you will notice the following 1-The MACD lines are below zero 2-The CCI is below zero 3-The MACD Level line is above the signal line Also on the chart is a 13 ema showing you that the price is above the

SPY Macro: Midterm Election Volatility & El Niño Sector Rotation The broader market is currently pricing in historical Q3 midterm election volatility. The Anchored VWAP and Volume Profile (VRVP) on SPY indicate structural institutional positioning for a turbulent quarter. Beneath this index-level consolidation, an inefficiently priced margin divergence driven by the upcoming El Niño presents a definitive sector rotation opportunity. This macro strategy extracts alpha by overweighting equities benefiting from input deflation and commodity inflation, while str

Over a Month in This GBPUSD Buy — Now, the Market Is Retracing This GBPUSD buy is a good reminder that **patience is also a trading skill. For over a month, I held onto this position while allowing price to move within the larger structure. Now, after the sustained move to the upside, price has reached an important area and is beginning to retrace. From my perspective, the key areas I am watching include: 🔹 The unmitigated Order Block above 🔹 The liquidity resting around the recent highs 🔹 The imbalance/FVG below, which could become relevant during a de

Liquidity Pools Explained: How Do They Actually Work?⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes If you’ve spent any time in DeFi, you’ve probably heard the term Liquidity Pool. But what exactly is it? Why do people put their crypto into these pools? How do traders use them? And where does the liquidity provider actually make money? Let’s break it down step by step. 👇 🔹 What Is a Liquidity Pool? A liquidity pool is a smart-contract-based pool containing two or more crypto assets that are deposited by users. The

by PremiumTrader57

DIVERSIFICATION IS NOT IMMUNITY One of the most common misconceptions in portfolio management is that low correlation always means low risk. In calm markets, different assets can behave independently, creating the illusion of strong diversification. But when a major economic shock hits, correlations can change rapidly. Assets that were previously uncorrelated may suddenly start moving together — turning a diversified portfolio into a concentrated source of risk. The key lesson: Don’t just measure correlation. Understand h

by Sashacharkhchi

Valuation, zone and seasonality: three quiet votes on Dow future The chart is a Dow futures daily: a pullback into the blue demand zone, the top edge aligned with the gap close above. My reference points: Entry: the blue zone Stop: below the red support line First target: 1R, with room to extend if momentum carries Valuation The gauge at the bottom sits in the cheap band. Not a timing tool, but it shifts the asymmetry toward the long side. Seasonality The current window has historically skewed long in this contract. The pattern table shows the r

by ConfluenceEdge_

BTCUSDT Macro Cycle: $126K Top & Oct Bottom Projection A time and price projection of historical bear market cycles on the Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) 1W chart. Time Cycle: The first two historical macro correction phases lasted exactly 52 bars (364 days). The projected 53-bar (371 days) phase from the peak of the third cycle points to a "Potential Deep Zone in Second week of October", indicated by the green vertical line on the chart. Volatility Contraction (Price): There is a mathematical contraction in the price decline ratios (-84.05% > -77.71%). As the

Bitcoin Daily – Seasonal Long Setup (June 29 – July 24)After months of relentless selling and elevated panic (driven in part by USD strength), BTC is showing signs of base-building at current levels. The flush has been sharp, but price action and the broader context point to exhaustion rather than continuation lower. Seasonality is unambiguous here. The 10-year backtest of this exact window (June 29 – July 24) delivers: Average return: +9.68% Win rate: 80% Robustness: 86% Score: A (84) The setup has held up under strict filters (minimum 8

by ConfluenceEdge_

Gold Short to PDL and rebalance to 50% of daily impulse Looking to take the market short to take out Mondays low and rebalance the recent impulse leg on the daily. CONFLUENCES - previous days high cleared - Shifting downwards on the 30m timeframe - S/R liquidity sat just below Mondays low - internal liquidity built below order area - 2H supply left after PDH clear Expecting a trigger of the order into the NY session.

ICT QUARTERLY THEORY - COMPLETE TRADING FRAMEWORK ICT QUARTERLY THEORY - COMPLETE TRADING FRAMEWORK The ICT Quarterly Theory is a powerful time-based trading framework that analyzes how price moves across fixed time periods. Market movements repeat in cyclical phases across different timeframes, such as yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, and 90-minute session quarters. Understanding these time cycles helps traders anticipate structural sweeps, manipulation moves, and high-probability expansion phases with maximum precision. 1. TIME FRACTALS A

Short-term buying from the specified area From the indicated area, I have a short-term buy but a sell view, and from the indicated areas, I have an excuse for a longer-term and deeper sell.

by amirhossin_trader_smc

SHORT GOLD - We have left a lot of Low resistance liquidity back down towards Monthly FVG. - Monthly FVG needs to get tapped. - Yes the institutions were building their Long term positions here thus we saw this rise. Which will trap short term retail traders and hedge funds here. - Once buyside liquidity gets taken out, a lot of retail traders will look at this as a breakout and buy here very heavily, including many large funds. - Once a lot of liquidity has been generated, price will crash back down. -

EUR/USD BULLISH CONTINUATION SIGNAL FVG Tap & Dynamic Support 📊 Trade Setup Summary Pair: Euro / U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) Timeframe: 1-Hour (1H) Bias: Bullish / Long Entry Zone: 1.15400 – 1.15430 Stop Loss (SL): 1.15125 (Below recent Swing Low structure) 🎯 Target Levels (Take Profit) Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.15650 (Recent internal high test) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.15850 (Major structural high extension) 🔍 Key Technical Rationale & Confluences 🎯 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Refill: Price pulled back directly into the 1H Bullish Fair Value Gap, cleanly tapping the

by PremiumTrader57