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Oil back in focus as tensions flare In late June we said oil was looking for a base . The 200 day moving average has provided a strong support level and renewed tensions now back in play, it seems like oil is about to make a new move higher. There's strong support in the high US$70 per barrel range. It doesn't seem like geopolitical tensions are going to be solved anytime soon. There could be more upside in the coming weeks. An additional interesting anecdote - the gold to oil ratio has recently come back to the mid 40x level, down from a peak of around 80x earlier this year. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Gold to move lower Gold is down around 7% since our short note in late May . We think there is still more downside, probably sub $4000 per ounce which is where the price action is indicating gold goes in the next couple of months. A base level where consolidation occurs, is dependent on how steep and how quickly we get there. Leverage is a wonderful force on the way up. The problem is, many traders forget of the consequences of leverage unwinding on the way down. Patience pays. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Aussie still bullish despite pullback The Australian dollar continues its upward trend against the US dollar, despite a recent pullback which sees it trading below US$0.70. The daily chart is still trading above the 200-day moving average. There could be some more US dollar strength in the coming weeks, mainly on a revision of inflationary expectations. If inflation does persist, it will be positive for commodities and the AUD is seen as a commodities currency, so we're maintaining our medium term bullish stance. If the 200-day moving average breaks, we will revisit. For now, it provides a good stop loss level for Aussie bulls. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

More downside for Bitcoin We've been bearish for a while. We cautioned downside in April and again in May . It seems like the Bitcoin price is still looking for a floor to consolidate around. With the market now trading below the 200-day moving average, we think there is more downside towards the $40-50k range in coming weeks/months. Bear markets can be deep and slow to recover. Any bulls still holding should take downside protection. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Time to form a base Oil is down around 20% since our short recommendation at the end of May . We're now back around the 200 day moving average, where we expect consolidation and a base to form. It could sit here for some time, trading slightly up and down on newsflow. But the 200 day moving average as the global economy works through the supply shock for the remainder of the year. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

More consolidation ahead for silver Silver is down around 12% since our short recommendation in mid March . We've been bullish throughout the year but we also need to be realistic with what the charts are telling there. The bull run has a big gap in the charts which is liklely to see more consolidation in the coming months, before a base is formed. We don't doubt the long term narative, we just see more selling pressure ahead. The 200 day moving average needs to hold at current levels. Otherwise, there could be more downside towards the mid $50 level. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Nasdaq wobbles, next month is key The recent selloff on the Nasdaq causes us to revisit the chart and observe key levels. The index is still in an upward trend but the next month or so will be key to see if pressure on chip stocks translates into a largest market sell-off. Current levels are well above the 200-day moving average, but markets can move quickly. Particularly with leverage around and the pace of AI adoption rising exponentially. Anything is possible. If you must panic, then panic early. Downside protection is warranted at the 200-day moving average which is still around 10% from recent levels. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Downside for gold This year has been a wild ride for gold. It's hard to be bearish given the big gains already banked. But we think markets always have a tendency for mean reversion. This time is no different. The 200-day moving average on gold is key, we're sitting at those levels now and if they don't hold, we could see more profit taking as the market looks for a consolidation base, before making higher levels. If gold does pullback, as we're expecting, we could see support at around the US$3400-3600 per ounce level in the coming months. The top is in ( we called a Short in April ), the bottom is undergoing a discovery phase. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Oil pullback on the cards Brent crude is due for a pullback, once the dust settles in the Middle East. We see $80 per barrel as a potential consolidation point, upon which future gains could be made on non-war related thesis. The world is hungry for energy, that won't go away. The type of energy is the big question. Oil has a built-in self-correcting mechanism. Every time it rallies hard and quick, global economies struggle with price rises, dampening demand and bringing the price back to a more normal level. We feel that could happen in the second half of this year, the 200-day moving average should continue to hold in an upward trend. But there is some downside here from profit taking post US/Iran negotiations. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Big test for Bitcoin The recent Bitcoin rally seems to be running out of momentum sub $80k, which is an important level to watch. For the bulls, we need to see is the price move through the 200 day moving average and consolidate in the mid $80k range, before the next upward leg. If we fail at the 200 day, we could see the market drift a little lower in the coming weeks. We did caution on Bitcoin pressure in early April . Even though the price has bounced higher since then, we haven't seen a convincing break through the 200 day simple moving average. We're still well below all time highs. Bulls should add some downside protection. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Zcash back in play We first pointed out Zcash in October last year at around the $280 level . It went for a nice rally up to all time highs of around $700, where we updated to a sell on November 10, before coming back and basing. It recently bounced again, now trading well above its 200 day moving average which seems to confirming basing in the US$250-340 range. A pullback could see some consolidation in the US$400 range, but there is a lot of momentum here, so we would be surprised to see new highs in the coming weeks if overall crypto momentum stays positive. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Still bullish on Alphabet Alphabet is up around 28% since our long recommendation in November . We remain bullish and maintain our long position. The AI revolution is in full force and compute is the single biggest constraint. Alphabet is well placed to continue powering its own AI stack, with compute capacity. It is also building a strong B2C business through Gemini that is hot on the heels of OpenAI. We maintain our bullish recommendation and the chart is supportive. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Salesforce to go headless - take profit We've been bearish on NYSE:CRM for the past few months as software has sold off in light of the AI disruption that is about to hit markets. Salesforce is down around 25% since our initial short note in August last year . We think its probably a good time to lock in some profits at current levels, where we think the stock could start to find some support and potentially attractive value investors who have been on the sidelines. Particularly as the broader market continues to rally. Salesforce has made some interesting announcements in recent weeks. These include decoupling the front-end user interface from the backend data/logic, allowing developers to use Salesforce as a raw data engine, powering custom experiences via APIs. It could be a major pivot in the right direction. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

More Aussie upside The Australian dollar continues to move higher against the US dollar after a decade of lacklustre returns. Renewed global tensions and rising US debt have once again brought reserve currency alternatives into focus. The Aussie ranks high on the list, supported by strong yield returns and exposure to rising commodity prices. We believe the Aussie is in the early stages of a prolonged bull run, similar to the period following the dot-com crash, when it rose from just under fifty cents and marched towards parity over a six-year period. For now, the key level remains the 200-day moving average, which needs to hold during any global uncertainty and cascading sell-off. If it does, it sets up a strong support base for a move towards the mid-70s against the US dollar, where it may then consolidate into year-end. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Gold setting up for more upside Gold has been consolidating over the past few weeks . We think the current trading pattern is a consolidation which sets it up for future upside. It won't be immediate though, there could be more consolidation at current levels with the 200-day moving average providing good downside support for the time being. It doesn't look like any of the bullish factors have gone away. There could be more volatility in markets as geopolitical unrest continues, that could see liquidations and sell-offs. But again, the downside seems to be finding buying support. Patience is key. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Bitcoin pressure builds Many crypto traders are carefully watching for the impact of cryptography as quantum computing innovation ramps up. Google moved the line this week. Not the outcome, the timing. Their quantum team showed that breaking encryption like Bitcoin’s may take far less than we thought. Still not today, but no longer a distant problem - perhaps 4 to 5 years. They held back the full details, which tells you enough. The risk is real, just not ready for mass use. Bitcoin is not broken. Only certain wallets are exposed, and the network itself stands. Markets shrugged, rightly so. This is not a price event. It is a clock starting to tick faster. Over the next decade, crypto will need to upgrade or be left behind. But it does come at a time when the price action is weak, if we weren't in a regional war, the markets may have taken more notice. There's a bit more downside from here. Stay cautious. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

More downside for US stocks There's more downside potential for stocks, not necessarily because of the war but due to valuations and uncertainty in the market. With the 200 day moving average now looking fragile, we think there could be another 10% downside risk to the broader stock indices before some stabilisation. There are two key uncertainties for stocks: 1) Discount rates are rising, which means a higher weighted average cost of capital will put downside pressure to valuations; and 2) AI is disrupting everything, which means earnings certainty is lower and high multiples need to be wound back until investors understand how each company will handle the terminal growth factor. This is all part of a healthy market correction, in an otherwise rising long term market. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Next move for Gold Gold is consolidating at current levels after a very solid run over the past two years. It is now one of the world’s most valuable asset classes, and there could be a multitude of reasons why the price is down in recent weeks. We do not really know, and probably will not truly find out. What we do know is that consolidation is normal. Markets are driven by three things: fundamentals, momentum, and leverage. The former has not changed, the other two have. Geopolitical unrest will continue to test the price, which will reduce momentum and leverage plays as the direction is now unclear. Any decent pullback should find support at the 200-day moving average, which suggests there is probably a little more downside before stabilisation. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Silver consolidates despite global tensions Silver prices are consolidating after running hard over the past few months. We think traders are now looking for a pullback level where a base can be formed. There could be some more downside if geopolitical tensions settle and traders look for speculative trades elsewhere. Silver is still trading significantly above its 200-day moving average. There is more medium-term upside, but consolidation needs to occur before a further move up. Producers are now making a healthy profit above their marginal cost of production, even with higher oil prices. The long-term narrative is unchanged. Fiat has problems, hard assets have upside relative to dollars. But being right and making money are two very different things. We think it is time to take profit. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Nasdaq vulnerable here The Nasdaq 100 looks vulnerable here, flirting with the 200 day moving average. All eyes are on energy and oil. But what about the second order effects of the Gulf situation? The Gulf region was supposed to help solve the data and energy constraints facing AI. Instead, it is dealing with deeper existential issues. Higher oil prices and disruptions to energy operations make AI more expensive and harder to justify for many data centre operators. The Gulf countries are also major investors in global technology, VC and AI companies. Problems closer to home could place pressure on capital flows into the sector. It is a volatile situation. The risk to reward looks asymmetrical, with downside risk dominating from here. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Oil - the biggest week in 40 years Over the past four years, almost every trader or commodities analyst has discussed the ramifications of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on oil prices. That hypothesis has now finally materialised. It's still too early to say how oil markets will be impact. Previous regional wars have taught us to be cautious. Energy markets don't always behave as expected. Traders are focused on short term supply disruptions, the movement of energy, disruption to the status quo. The overall electrification of energy demand is also a major factor, together with the US becoming increasingly energy dependent. However dispute all these cautions, oil price have been subdued for a few years now. Particularly when pricing oil in gold. Oil isn't expensive, so there could be some upward momentum in the coming weeks. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Update to our Salesforce recommendation Salesforce NYSE:CRM is down around 23% since our short recommendation back in August last year. The thesis back then was fundamental in nature, based on the rapidly changing AI vibe coding environment and pace of technological change. While Salesforce consdiers itself an AI enabled company, its difficult to see manage the innovator's dilema. It has a lot of revenue at stake and so while it wants to sell AI, it won't be as well positioned as disruptors who want to take away Salesforce's customers and reduce their spend to a fraction of what it currently is. Agentic AI will completely disrupt the entire software business and because of that, we maintain our bearish view. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

James Hardie - What happens when the Fed cuts rates James Hardie (NYSE: JHX) is one of the cleanest cyclical plays on a U.S. housing rebound. The majority of its earnings come from North America, making it highly sensitive to changes in U.S. construction and renovation activity. U.S. housing is cyclical. It contracts with high interest rates and rebounds when rates fall. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting rates over the next few quarters. That sets the stage for a recovery in housing demand. JHX is positioned to benefit directly. This isn’t Hardie’s first cycle. The company has survived and thrived through decades of housing booms and busts. Around two-thirds of its U.S. profits come from the repair and remodel segment, which tends to be more stable than new construction. With much of the U.S. housing stock over 40 years old, renovation demand remains strong. JHX recently announced an $8.75 billion acquisition of Azek, expanding into wood-alternative decking and railing products. This strengthens its U.S. footprint and product mix, while positioning the company for scale and synergy. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has been quietly buying U.S. homebuilders, including D.R. Horton and Lennar. That’s a clear vote of confidence in the long-term value of the sector. JHX shares are down more than 30% from recent highs, pricing in short-term weakness. But this is a classic cyclical setup. When housing turns, and it always does, Hardie will be a major beneficiary. The market will move well before the recovery shows up in the numbers. Now is the time to look forward. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.

Update to our Jamies Hardie recommendation James Hardie NYSE:JHX is up around 24% since our long recommendation in August . Back then, our view was the market will start looking for exposures to the housing market as the Fed cuts rates and growth starts to slow down. It seems that the market is now supporting that view. While rate cuts may taper off slightly, there is an overwhelming consensus building that the AI and tech boom cannot be the only pillar that drives the US economy and underlying housing needs to be addresses. That will be positive for building materials companies, James Hardie which is among one of the largest. We maintain our bullish stance, with support at the 200-day moving average level in the $22-23 range. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.