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Back to bases Its been a tough week for Alphabet (aka Gooogle) with the share price taking a big hit. A lot of the AI premium has come out of the stock and its now looking for a base. We're back to bases. The bottom line miss was significant and with a lot of the AI premium now coming out of the market, stocks like Alphabet will need to come back to trade near their fundamental levels. Many of these companies built up a huge pile of cash which is now being drawn down for AI investment. Freecashflow was ne

Silver forming a base, could shine higher Silver is down around 25% since our short recommendation in early September. At the time, we said "we think silver will continue to consolidate through to the end of the year, forming a base, in which it can then build the next upward phase..." The decline has been quicker and more savage than we expected. With that in mind, we think the base is now forming and there could be a test back towards the 200 day moving average which is around 25-30% higher than current levels. Bond yields are

Higher yields bite Nasdaq Last week's focus on data centres and AI infrastructure spending is a sign of what's coming for other tech stocks. Higher bond yields will start to impact the funding of many high growth ventures, particularly those who require short term liquidity to fund long term ambitions. The gradual increase in the US 10 year bond yield has two impacts 1) Lower face value for bonds that need to be marked to market and 2) Higher funding costs for high growth companies that fund short to invest long (or ha

A$ looking vulnerable It was smooth sailing for the AUDUSD for the past few months but the past week has uncovered some vulnerabilities. The daily price is trading below the 200 day moving average, a key indicator which we have previousl noted as important. The US is back on a rate raising path while inflation data in Australia shows a potential peak as aggregate demand softens in response to recent RBA moves. We think the Aussie looks vulnerable here, we're changing our view from positive to neutral. The fore

Gold still basing at current levels Gold is still basing at current levels, consolidating its recent multi-year gains. We expect more consolidation through the end of the year, assuming no major economic shock. One key thing to watch is the impact of rising bond yields on the financial system, particularly US regional banks heading into the next reporting season. If bank equity values are written down, contagion risk could start creeping through the financial system. That may give gold the opportunity to rally back towards its 2

The world needs Copper Copper continues to move higher since our January bullish note and remains in a strong upward trend driven, by very strong fundamentals. As the world shifts its energy consumption and upgrades transmission infrastructure, Copper demand remains solid. The growth in AI and data centres also means Copper demand is growing exponentially. While recycled material can offset some of the demand curve, a net increase will still see strong price support over coming years. Copper could emerge as one of

Oil could push higher Global central banks have started to increase rates as higher energy prices persist and feed through the global economy. Oil is still looking to make further gains, up around 15% since our bullish note in July. HIgher prices are a function of three factors 1) Stronger than expected global economic growth, we haven't seen unemployment rise or services indicators dip despite higher rates 2) The market is starting to price in new energy demands from AI and data centres and 3) The obvious Middle

Still tough for silver Silver is down slightly since our June short note and now down around 15% since our short recommendation in March . The risk/reward doesn't look attractive at these levels. Markets are fragile, higher energy prices are causing inflationary pressures which are playing out in the bond market. While that should be positive for metals in general, the overall senitment around risk is changing with large leveraged positions seeing profits taken. We think silver will continue to consolidate thro

Zcash doubles Zcash has doubled since our long recommendation in May. It is now trading well above the 200 day moving average. In May we said "A pullback could see some consolidation in the US$400 range, but there is a lot of momentum here, so we would be surprised to see new highs in the coming weeks if overall crypto momentum stays positive." That seems to be materialising in the current crypto market, where traders are looking for different exposures with expoentnail upside. We think the momentum co

Aussie to also rise against Euro We've been bullish on the AUDUSD since the begining of the year and now see a similar opportunt against the EUR. The thesis is similar, US will start to slow down, Europe will follow suit while Australia remains exposed to higher growth markets and commodities in particular. Some of the safe haven trade that is already in the USD and EUR will also start to unwind, as we have already seen in gold and silver. The next phase will be towards high quality currencies, where growth is still high, l

Bond markets fragile Scott Bessent's attempt to limit the bond sell-off caused market shocks last week. It's early days, and it's still unclear if we are at the cusp of the next big market contagion risk. Experienced traders always know: if you must panic, then panic early. The 30-year yield is now sharply up from the COVID low. Its has been at these levels previously, but we're now in a world with a lot more debt to GDP. The rate of decline in bond prices is also of concern. If the US Treasury continues to interf

Aussie holds, commodities push higher We reaffirmed our bullish view for the Aussie dollar in early July and in that note, we said holding the 200 day moving average level would be important. The Aussie continues to hold those levels and we think could continue to rally higher in to the rest of the year as commodity prices remain strong. Australia's central bank has reaffirmed its commitment to continue raising rates should inflation remain high. Meanwhile US yields continue to rise as bonds sell off. Consolidation around curr

Defending the Yen Japan has moved from talking about the weak yen to actively defending it over the past week. The key event was a coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention around July 30 to August 3. Key word being coordinated . Japanese authorities bought yen in size, while the U.S. Treasury also participated. This isnt a hostile defense. This is planned and well managed. We've likely seen Yen lows, with more gradual appreciation now likely in coming months. The forecasts provided herein are intended for

Big test for Apple Apple's share price has been one way for the past decade - up. But as we know in markets, nothing lasts forever. Markets never move in straight lines and usually revert back to their mean (averages). This is important because Apple has been carrying much of market weighted indices with it. As the (second) largest company in the world, valuation is important. Apple will move ETFs and market based funds. The 200 day moving average is key, we see that as the next test in the coming months. Perha

Nasdaq still vulnerable here We've been cautious on the Nasdaq for some time now, mainly on the back of the valuations in AI and related industries. Our June note cautioned upcoming reporting season and general market risk appetite. We're still trading close to those levels and price action has remained fairly range bound. But there seems to be risk building under the bonnet and the best time to start building short positions is when everybody least expects downside. Key levels are for the 200 day moving average currentl

Oil back in focus as tensions flare In late June we said oil was looking for a base . The 200 day moving average has provided a strong support level and renewed tensions now back in play, it seems like oil is about to make a new move higher. There's strong support in the high US$70 per barrel range. It doesn't seem like geopolitical tensions are going to be solved anytime soon. There could be more upside in the coming weeks. An additional interesting anecdote - the gold to oil ratio has recently come back to the mid 40x level,

Gold to move lower Gold is down around 7% since our short note in late May . We think there is still more downside, probably sub $4000 per ounce which is where the price action is indicating gold goes in the next couple of months. A base level where consolidation occurs, is dependent on how steep and how quickly we get there. Leverage is a wonderful force on the way up. The problem is, many traders forget of the consequences of leverage unwinding on the way down. Patience pays. The forecasts provided herei

Aussie still bullish despite pullback The Australian dollar continues its upward trend against the US dollar, despite a recent pullback which sees it trading below US$0.70. The daily chart is still trading above the 200-day moving average. There could be some more US dollar strength in the coming weeks, mainly on a revision of inflationary expectations. If inflation does persist, it will be positive for commodities and the AUD is seen as a commodities currency, so we're maintaining our medium term bullish stance. If the 200-day mo

More downside for Bitcoin We've been bearish for a while. We cautioned downside in April and again in May . It seems like the Bitcoin price is still looking for a floor to consolidate around. With the market now trading below the 200-day moving average, we think there is more downside towards the $40-50k range in coming weeks/months. Bear markets can be deep and slow to recover. Any bulls still holding should take downside protection. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only an

Time to form a base Oil is down around 20% since our short recommendation at the end of May . We're now back around the 200 day moving average, where we expect consolidation and a base to form. It could sit here for some time, trading slightly up and down on newsflow. But the 200 day moving average as the global economy works through the supply shock for the remainder of the year. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future perf

More consolidation ahead for silver Silver is down around 12% since our short recommendation in mid March . We've been bullish throughout the year but we also need to be realistic with what the charts are telling there. The bull run has a big gap in the charts which is liklely to see more consolidation in the coming months, before a base is formed. We don't doubt the long term narative, we just see more selling pressure ahead. The 200 day moving average needs to hold at current levels. Otherwise, there could be more downside

Nasdaq wobbles, next month is key The recent selloff on the Nasdaq causes us to revisit the chart and observe key levels. The index is still in an upward trend but the next month or so will be key to see if pressure on chip stocks translates into a largest market sell-off. Current levels are well above the 200-day moving average, but markets can move quickly. Particularly with leverage around and the pace of AI adoption rising exponentially. Anything is possible. If you must panic, then panic early. Downside protection is war

Downside for gold This year has been a wild ride for gold. It's hard to be bearish given the big gains already banked. But we think markets always have a tendency for mean reversion. This time is no different. The 200-day moving average on gold is key, we're sitting at those levels now and if they don't hold, we could see more profit taking as the market looks for a consolidation base, before making higher levels. If gold does pullback, as we're expecting, we could see support at around the US$3400-3600 per o

Oil pullback on the cards Brent crude is due for a pullback, once the dust settles in the Middle East. We see $80 per barrel as a potential consolidation point, upon which future gains could be made on non-war related thesis. The world is hungry for energy, that won't go away. The type of energy is the big question. Oil has a built-in self-correcting mechanism. Every time it rallies hard and quick, global economies struggle with price rises, dampening demand and bringing the price back to a more normal level. We feel