Bitcoin Bulls Eye Breakout Above $65,555Bitcoin continues to carve out a series of higher highs and higher lows on the H4 timeframe while compressing beneath resistance at $65,555. The level has already rejected one false breakout, with another test arriving in early Asian trade today. Importantly, the pullback from resistance has so far been shallow, suggesting buyers remain willing to step in on dips and increasing the likelihood of another attempt at a more sustained breakout.
The oscillators continue to favour upside. RSI (14) sits above 50 at 60.6, while MACD has staged a bullish crossover and continues to trend higher in positive territory, reinforcing the improving momentum picture.
Rather than chasing a breakout preemptively, I'd prefer to wait for confirmation. Should the price break above $65,555 and hold, followed by a successful backtest and bounce from the level as support, long positions could be considered given the improved risk-reward dynamics. Initial upside targets would be the June 18 swing high of $64600 before attention turns to $67,260, the June 16 peak.
Failure to hold above $65,555 after a breakout would weaken the bullish setup, while a break back beneath the rising trendline and recent higher lows would invalidate the immediate upside bias.
One potential catalyst worth watching is this week's heavyweight technology earnings calendar. SK Hynix reports on Wednesday morning in Asia, followed by Alphabet and Tesla in the U.S. before Intel on Thursday. Given the sizeable drawdown already seen across many AI-related names, particularly memory and semiconductor stocks, the prospect of positive earnings surprises may be enough to trigger a squeeze higher in risk assets. Bitcoin has, at times, traded alongside broader risk appetite, suggesting it could benefit if that were to occur.
That said, the relationship is far from perfect. Some momentum-focused traders who once gravitated towards crypto have likely shifted into AI equities, meaning strong performance in technology stocks could just as easily divert flows away from Bitcoin. 
Long
FTSE 100 Holds Its Range as Momentum Levels OffThe FTSE 100 remains contained within a broad daily consolidation between support near 10,150 and resistance around 10,700. Price recently tested the upper boundary but failed to establish a sustained break, leaving the index positioned near the middle-to-upper portion of the range.
The moving-average structure remains constructive. Price is holding above the rising 50-day SMA near 10,443 and well above the 200-day SMA around 10,178. The shorter average also remains above the longer average, which supports a moderately bullish medium-term backdrop despite the absence of a clear breakout.
Momentum has become less decisive. The MACD line is slightly below its signal line while both remain above the zero level, indicating that positive momentum is fading rather than reversing sharply. RSI is near 52, reinforcing a neutral reading with no sign of overbought or oversold conditions.
The 10,700 area remains the key resistance reference, while 10,150 continues to define the lower boundary of the current range. As long as price remains between these levels, the technical picture is best described as neutral in the short term, with a mild bullish bias supported by the rising moving averages.
-MW Watching for a pullback to buy crude oilOur UK crude contract continues to look constructive on the four-hour timeframe. The price has recently broken above the descending triangle that capped gains in recent sessions and is now holding above $88.72 a barrel. While that level has only been tested a few times, it acted as both support and resistance during June, making it a level of note to build trade setups around.
Rather than chase the breakout, I'd prefer to see the price backtest $88.72 and attract fresh buying interest. A successful retest and bounce would provide a higher-conviction long entry, allowing for a relatively tight stop beneath the level for protection. Failure to hold above $88.72 would invalidate the near-term bullish setup, suggesting the breakout may have been a false move.
The first upside objective is today's high at $90.85 a barrel. A break above there would bring the June 11 swing high near $94.60 into view. Beyond that, attention turns to the $98.00 to $98.40 zone, which acted as both support and resistance in late May and early June.
Momentum also favours upside. RSI (14) is setting higher highs, albeit has strayed into overbought territory, while MACD continues to confirm the bullish signal, reinforcing the message from the price action.
The fundamental backdrop has also become more supportive after reports that multiple US servicemen had been killed in Jordan heightened the risk of a broader regional conflict and potential supply disruptions. While those developments have added another bullish catalyst for crude, the price action had already started to improve beforehand, suggesting the balance of risks had already begun to shift to the upside.
Taken together, the price action, momentum and the fundamental picture continues to favour upside.
Good luck!
DS 
Long
USD/MXN continues to highlight a relevant sideways rangeThese have started to become difficult sessions for the Mexican peso. The currency has not managed to find consistent demand, and USD/MXN average movements are barely showing a variation close to 0.4% over the last 3 trading sessions.
This behavior reflects lower market activity, especially considering that previous weeks saw variations of up to 0.8% in a single session. For now, the Mexican peso has not managed to consolidate a stable sense of strength, while the stability of the U.S. dollar continues to pressure the market.
In addition, the U.S. inflation data released during the week has not been enough to eliminate the possibility of a potential interest rate hike in September by the Fed. This could be maintaining some strength around the U.S. dollar.
If this effect continues, a phase of indecision could remain relevant in short-term USD/MXN movements.
Sideways range remains relevant
For several months, USD/MXN average movements have maintained a medium-term sideways structure, with a ceiling near the 18 pesos per dollar area and a floor around 17 pesos per dollar.
For now, recent price movements have not been enough to break this neutrality. For this reason, the sideways range remains the most important technical structure to watch and could continue to affect the lack of direction in USD/MXN over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI indicator line continues to move around the neutral 50 area. This suggests that the average of buying and selling impulses remains balanced.
As long as this behavior continues, a neutral bias could remain relevant in short-term USD/MXN movements.
MACD: A similar dynamic can be seen in the MACD, as the histogram remains close to the neutral 0 level. This suggests balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages.
This reading also highlights relevant neutrality that could remain important over the next few sessions.
Key levels to watch:
18 pesos per dollar – Relevant resistance: This high zone remains the most important upper barrier at the moment. Price movements toward this level could start to leave the neutral bias behind and open room for more relevant buying pressure over the coming trading weeks.
17.58 pesos per dollar – Near-term barrier: This key retracement area corresponds to the most relevant neutrality level between the long-term moving averages on the chart. If price fails to move consistently away from this level, the neutral phase could remain in place and even open room for an extension of the dominant sideways range.
17 pesos per dollar – Key support: This area corresponds to the 2026 lows and remains the main bearish barrier to watch. Price movements below this level could bring back the selling bias seen in previous weeks and open room for a possible reactivation of the long-term bearish trend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst USDJPY Eyes Triangle BreakoutFrom an FX perspective, USD/JPY remains one of the most interesting charts. The pair is trading near levels last seen in the 1980s and could be at risk of another steep bullish breakout toward 170 should the US Dollar Index (DXY) confirm its own breakout above 102.
The latest swings on the USD/JPY chart are coiling within a triangle pattern, pointing to growing breakout risks as the range narrows down. A sustained break above the 162.40–162.80 resistance—and above 163.50—would strengthen the case for an extension toward 165, 168, and eventually 170.
These upside targets align with the 61.8%, 100%, and 127.2% Fibonacci extension levels of the May–June 2026 advance, while also converging with the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since April 2025.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 161.10 and 160.80 would expose the lower boundary of the channel near 158. From there, prices could either stage another rebound to preserve the year-long bullish trend since April 2025, or extend losses toward 155 and 152, near the yearly lows. This bearish scenario would likely coincide with a DXY breakdown below the 100.30–99.30 support zone
- Razan Hilal WTI crude oil attempts to reclaim the 80-dollar levelShort-term trading sessions remain relatively positive for crude oil. WTI has managed to maintain a gain of more than 11% over the last 2 trading sessions, amid buying pressure that once again reflects a risk premium linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
This behavior comes as rounds of military activity continue around the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over the security of maritime transit in the Gulf and possible disruptions to oil supply.
As long as these events continue to pressure risk perception around the energy market, buying pressure could remain relevant for short-term oil movements over the next few sessions.
Bullish correction becomes relevant
Although the average movements of WTI crude oil have remained around a long bearish trend line for months, the current price recovery has started to become relevant and shows a shift in the balance of forces on the daily chart.
This becomes even more important after the crossover of the 200-period moving average, which is starting to show that the short-term bullish average is gaining relevance in current price movements.
Although this recovery still does not fully eliminate the possible formation of the long bearish trend line, it does begin to highlight a potentially more relevant buying bias on the chart, which could remain important over the next few sessions.
RSI: At the moment, the RSI indicator line remains slightly above the neutral 50 level. This suggests that the average of bullish impulses has become dominant again. If this behavior continues, a potential buying bias could remain relevant over the next few sessions.
MACD: A similar scenario can be seen in the MACD, as the histogram remains above the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the average strength of short-term moving averages continues to show bullish momentum and also highlights the importance of a potential buying bias at the moment.
Key levels to watch:
82 dollars – Relevant resistance: This area corresponds to the most important nearby highs and aligns with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements above this level could show an increasingly relevant buying bias and open room for more consistent bullish pressure, which could even put the possible bearish trend line at risk over the coming weeks.
74 dollars – Neutrality level: This relevant area remains at the base of the 200-period moving average. This level could act as a tentative barrier in the event of possible bearish price corrections over the next few sessions.
67 dollars – Definitive support: This level corresponds to the most relevant lows of recent trading weeks and remains the most important bearish barrier to watch. Price movements below this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open room for a possible extension of the long bearish trend line over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Gold Remains Pressured Inside a Descending ChannelGold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows maintaining the broader bearish structure. The latest rebound from the lower half of the channel has improved short-term price action, but the market remains below the upper trendline and beneath several major technical references.
The 4,275 area is now an important resistance zone after previously acting as support. Price also remains below the 50-day SMA near 4,333 and the 200-day SMA near 4,493, reinforcing the view that the medium-term trend is still under pressure. The declining 50-day average adds further weight to the bearish structure.
Momentum indicators show early signs of stabilization. MACD remains below the zero line, but the MACD line has moved above its signal line, indicating that downside momentum is easing. RSI is near 44, which is below neutral territory but no longer close to oversold conditions.
The current evidence supports a bearish-to-neutral bias. Continued rejection beneath the channel ceiling and the 4,275 resistance area would preserve the existing downtrend, while a sustained recovery above these levels would suggest that the corrective structure is beginning to weaken. The 3,886 region remains the main visible support area below current price.
-MW. S&P 500 knocking on the door of record highsThe S&P 500 has been range-bound over the past couple of weeks, repeatedly finding buyers on dips towards 7,425 support while remaining capped beneath 7,550 resistance. Having just completed a bullish engulfing candle, taking the index back to the top of the range, and with Asian equity markets ripping higher led by technology stocks, the positive tone may extend into the US session.
Should we see a break above 7,550 that sticks, long positions could be considered with a tight stop beneath 7,550 for protection, initially targeting a retest of the record high at 7,620.
The oscillators favour longs over shorts, with RSI (14) holding above 50 while MACD has staged a bullish crossover, bolstering both the signal and the merits of the trade. The same applies to the key medium and long-term moving averages, with the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages all rising and stacked in bullish order.
Good luck!
DS 
Long
DAX levels to watch after its sharp pullbackEuropean markets took the brunt of the sell-off amid the rewed Middle East tensions this week. The DAX was trying to stabilise along with global markets this morning. Let's see if it will be able to do if oil continues to press higher.
After failing to sustain its breakout above the January 2026 record high of 25,512, the index has sold off suggesting the move may have been a false breakout. Still, the broader uptrend remains intact for now, with the rising trendline currently being tested around 24,850.
A more bearish outlook would emerge if the index breaks below the 26 June low at 24,550, as this would mark the first significant lower low and undermine the current bullish structure. Until then, the bullish case remains valid, although recent price action has lacked conviction and momentum.
On the upside, the DAX needs to regain strength and reclaim 25,512 to re-establish the broader bullish trend. Before reaching that level, traders are likely to encounter initial resistance around 25,100.
By Fawad Razqqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
NZD/USD: Break, retest, rally?NZD/USD may be on the cusp of a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle, with a sustained move above 0.5724 potentially paving the way for a retest of 0.5774, a level that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over recent months.
The pair failed to clear 0.5724 late last week, prompting a pullback towards the lower boundary of the structure. However, the backdrop has improved following the RBNZ's hawkish rate hike on Wednesday, reinforced by a surge in the BNZ Manufacturing PMI to 59.9 in June, signalling a sharp acceleration in manufacturing activity.
A sustained break above 0.5724, ideally followed by a successful backtest and bounce, would provide greater confidence that the breakout is genuine. That would offer a potential entry point for longs, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level for protection, targeting 0.5774 initially before shifting focus to the 200DMA.
Momentum is also becoming more constructive for bulls. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and is approaching the neutral 50 level, while MACD has crossed above its signal line while remaining below zero. Combined, they suggest the bearish momentum that dominated in late June has dissipated and may be giving way to building upside momentum.
As always, broader risk sentiment remains an important swing factor. Any further easing in tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz would likely support risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi, increasing the probability of the bullish setup playing out.
Good luck!
DS S&P 500 fails to break out of indecisionOver the last few trading sessions, price variation around the SPX index has remained close to 0.3% on average. This has started to highlight more evident indecision in the chart’s movements, which for now do not show significant short-term trend strength.
In addition, after updates emerged about a possible reactivation of tensions between the United States and Iran, this catalyst could once again affect confidence in market demand. In this scenario, the lack of a clear recovery in the index could continue to highlight an important phase of indecision in S&P 500 movements over the next few trading sessions.
Sideways range remains consistent: For several weeks, average movements in the SPX have started to form an increasingly evident medium-term sideways range, with a ceiling near 7,600 points and a floor around 7,200 points.
So far, price has not managed to define a clear short-term direction. As long as a more relevant buying or selling bias does not appear on the chart, the current sideways range could remain the most important structure for the next few trading sessions.
RSI: The RSI indicator line continues to move consistently very close to the neutral 50 line. This suggests a balance in the average bullish and bearish impulses of the last 14 sessions.
For this reason, the indicator continues to point to a phase of indecision that could remain in place over the next few sessions if this behavior continues.
MACD: A similar scenario can be seen in the MACD histogram, which also maintains relevant movements around the neutral 0 line. This suggests a balance of strength in short-term moving averages.
This reading also reflects the importance of an increasingly evident neutral bias over the next few trading sessions.
Key levels to watch:
7,600 points – Main resistance: This zone corresponds to the historical highs of the SPX and currently acts as the most important bullish barrier to watch.
Price movements above this level could reactivate a buying bias and open room for a possible extension of the long bullish trend line, which remains the dominant long-term technical pattern.
7,400 points – Near-term barrier: This zone corresponds to a recent retracement, sits in the middle of the sideways range, and coincides with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average.
If the SPX price remains too close to this level without managing to move clearly away from it, it could continue to reinforce an indecision scenario and keep the sideways range as the dominant pattern over the next few sessions.
7,200 points – Key support: This level corresponds to lows from previous weeks and coincides with an area near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the most relevant move on the chart. For this reason, it represents the most important bearish barrier to watch.
Price movements below this level could reinforce more consistent selling pressure and open room for a relevant selling bias over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Breakout bounce or breakdown?Lower energy prices, an ECB that's backing away from an aggressive tightening cycle, and signs investors may be rotating away from growthier parts of the equity market and back towards old economy indices such as the DAX helped lift prices to fresh record highs earlier this month. However, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy prices higher again, reviving concerns about Europe's energy security and the inflation risks that previously worried the ECB.
On the back of that development, the price has completed a three-candle evening star bearish reversal pattern, retracing back to the former breakout level at 25,447, the previous record high set in late May. Despite having bearish implications for directional risk, the proximity of price to this level leaves a clear area for traders to build trade setups around, depending on how price reacts.
While the price action warns of downside risk, the oscillators still marginally favour longs over shorts. RSI (14) is trending higher and remains above the neutral 50 level, while MACD has staged a bullish crossover and remains in positive territory, albeit it has flattened out. Upside momentum has waned a little, but it hasn't reversed yet.
If the price can hold above 25,447, longs could be established looking for a retracement back towards the record high at 25,923. If it fails to hold above 25,447, shorts could be considered initially targeting 25,180, another breakout zone from the high set on June 22. Beneath there, the 50-day simple moving average and the uptrend from the April low converge around 24,600, an area where the contract also found buying support during June.
Given Tuesday’s bearish retracement was sparked by an escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, developments in the Strait of Hormuz may help determine which setup to consider.
Good luck!
DS
