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Bond Market Uncertainty Weighs on Nikkei By Pranay Yadav, Portfolio Analyst, Mint Finance Rising bond yields and an unexpected economic slowdown in Japan pose new risks to the Nikkei 225, following its recovery from the tariff-driven decline. Warning lights are flashing. Downside risk potential is present. Nikkei 225 is trading near its one-year average where it has previously shown a tendency to revert. What could help an investor hedge the uncertainty in the Nikkei 225? IMPACT OF RISING JGB YIELDS ON NIKKEI 225 Japan’s bond m

Capital Rotation: A Value Play Amidst Tariff Headwinds Nikkei 225 – Capital Rotation: A Value Play Amidst Tariff Headwinds By Pranay Yadav, Portfolio Analyst, Mint Finance The US Liberation Day announcement on April 2 sent Nikkei 225 plunging. Subsequent tariff pause led to a strong rebound. Since then, Nikkei has recouped the losses. Significant risks remain, making renewed weakness possible if tariffs are reinstated after the pause. Major Japanese stocks are heavily reliant on exports to the US. Any disruption significantly hurts their reven

Bullish Nikkei Faces Formidable Headwinds Japan’s lost decades are behind us. Many long-term factors are driving resurgence in Japanese equities. Economic growth is accelerating – driven by strong domestic consumption. Radical market reforms have made Japan attractive for domestic and global investors. As a result, the benchmark Nikkei 225 set a new all-time-high after four decades. However, the rally is facing challenges. Tightening monetary policy, trade uncertainties, and waning impact of corporate efficiency reforms pose near-ter

CapitaLand (9CI) Ready to Soar? Watch This Key Level!By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova CapitaLand Investment (SGX: 9CI) has been in a downtrend since October 2024, falling from its peak of $3.20. However, recent technical signals suggest that accumulation may be taking place, with a potential breakout on the horizon. The volume profile indicates significant trading activity in the $2.40 to $2.60 range, which could signify either accumulation or distribution. Given the bullish signals emerging from other indicators, accumulation appear

S&P500 & Bitcoin Dancing Off Key Supports By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova The E-mini S&P 500 index futures are currently exhibiting a symmetrical triangle formation, a technical pattern that typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout. The price is testing the lower boundary of this triangle, suggesting a possible breakdown. Additionally, the index is hovering near the 200-day moving average (MA), a critical long-term support level. A break below this MA could signal further bearish momentu

How Yen Trends & Wage Growth Signal Opportunities in Nikkei 225 By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index: Since our last trade idea ( ), the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded from around 36,215 on 9 September to 39,480 at the close on 6 November, a gain of about 9%. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are yet to hit their July record highs, as a stronger Yen, political uncertainty, and potentially higher interest rates weighed on sentiment. Green Shoots in Japan: In our previous posting, we highlighted how the fund

Hidden Link Between Hedge Funds’ Yen Positions & Nikkei225 Trend By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova Tracking the GBP/JPY and Nikkei 225 Relationship for Futures Trading In my previous analysis of the Nikkei 225, I pointed out its strong correlation with the GBP/JPY currency pair, highlighting it as a key factor for traders to watch when trading Nikkei 225 futures. The Japanese yen’s strength is largely shaped by the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). While these policies can be complex and challenging for everyday investors to grasp,

Navigating volatility in the Nikkei225:Start of a Virtuous Cycle By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index: As of 9 September, the Nikkei 225 Index was down by -0.48%, after falling as much as 3% as weak US Payroll added to slowdown fears and dampened risk appetite. The Nikkei 225 Index saw a 5th straight decline, with data showing Japan’s Q2 GDP expanded less than expected at 2.9% QoQ, but still advancing enough to keep the BOJ on track to hike rates later this year. At the same time, China CPI and PPI data fell sho

Navigating the Nikkei 225: A Pivotal Moment for Traders Navigating the Nikkei 225: Key Technical Indicators Suggest a Pivotal Moment for Traders By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova The Nikkei 225 index is currently at an inflection point, with several technical indicators pointing to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Technical Indicators to watch out for: 1. GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY currency pair had shown strong correlation to Nikkei225. Given the range-bound nature of both GBP/JPY and Nikkei 225 since August 14, 2024, a br

Nikkei rebound inline with expectations- Where Next?By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 Index looks to have recovered from a dreadful start to the month where the Nikkei 225 Index plunged -12.40% on a single day on 5 August due to an unfavourable combination of carry trade unwinding, tighter BOJ monetary policy, and US recession fears. Since then, the index has rallied by over 20%. As mentioned in the previous post , this recovery was in-line with our forecast as we expected the B

Navigating the Nikkei225's Volatility Navigating the Nikkei225's Volatility: BOJ's Rate Hike, Market Reactions, and Future Implications By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova BOJ’s Surprise Rate Hike and the Initial Market Reaction After Bank of Japan surprised the market by increasing its interest rate by 0.25% on 31 July and BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda said at a news conference then of the possibility of further rate hikes, it sent Nikkei225 into a sharp dive, falling 8000 over points in less than a week. Compounding Fact

Navigating Volatility in Japan; LT Fundamentals Unchanged By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 Index plunged -12.40% on 5 August, its steepest single-day decline since 1987. Investors fled equities as a stronger yen hammered export stocks, tighter monetary policy led to an unwinding of carry trades, US recession fears, and a rotation out of Tech amid “AI bubble” concerns. While the decline was broad, Tech was particularly hard hit, with stalwarts like Softbank Group (-18.66%) and Tokyo Ele

Navigating the Key Technical Levels and Upcoming BOJ Decision By Eric Lee , Sales Director from Phillip Nova The Nikkei 225 index is currently trading near its 200-day moving average (200D-MA), a crucial technical indicator that often signifies long-term market trends. At the same time, the index is hovering around the 37,000 level, a significant support that has held firm multiple times in the past. Technical Indicators: 1. 200-Day Moving Average (200D-MA): The 200D-MA is trending upwards, underscoring a long-term bullish sentiment. The inde

Tech Rotation Presents a Buying Opportunity for the Nikkei 225 By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225 As of 22 July, the SGX Nikkei 225 September contract has slipped below the 40,000 level, hovering around 39,710 at around 11:04 SGT. Much of the decline can be attributed to a stock rotation out of Tech and into cyclicals and small caps across the globe. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Makers, in particular, saw a rout after an explosive first half. Nevertheless, we believe the direction forward appea

Analytical Perspective on Correlation between Nikkei225 & GBP By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova Substantial Upward Trends in GBP/JPY and Nikkei 225 from 2020 to 2024 Over the past 4 years, from 2020 to 2024, both the GBP/JPY exchange rate and the Nikkei 225 index have shown substantial upward trends. The chart below indicates a close correlation between these two financial indicators, particularly from late 2022 to mid2024. The GBP/JPY (in blue) and the Nikkei 225 (in red) have both risen significantly over the observed period, with the N

Analytical Perspective on Correlation Between Nikkei225 & GBP By Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova Substantial Upward Trends in GBP/JPY and Nikkei 225 from 2020 to 2024 Over the past 4 years, from 2020 to 2024, both the GBP/JPY exchange rate and the Nikkei 225 index have shown substantial upward trends. The chart below indicates a close correlation between these two financial indicators, particularly from late 2022 to mid2024. The GBP/JPY (in blue) and the Nikkei 225 (in red) have both risen significantly over the observed period, with th

Nikkei 225 Breaches 41,000- Where Next?By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: As of 9 July, the SGX Nikkei 225 September contract briefly topped the 41,000 level, gaining 1.32% as of 11:01 SGT. The movements tracked overnight gains in US semiconductor shares, as investors remain optimistic ahead of Powell's semi-annual testimony to congress and inflation readings later this week. As of 10:35 SGT, gains were led by Fujikura Ltd (+11.66%), Tokyo Electron (+3.88%), Advantest (3.17%). This

Impact of Japan’s Largest Pay Raise on Nikkei 225 Impact of Japan’s Largest Pay Raise on Nikkei 225: Market Insights & Trading Ideas Historic Pay Raise Boosts Japanese Economy By Eric Lee , Sales Director from Phillip Nova On March 22nd, Japan’s largest union group, Rengo, announced that Japanese firms have agreed to raise salary by 5.25% this year. This is the biggest raise the country had seen since 2013 . Given that Personal Consumption constituted 55% of Japan’s GDP, the pay raise is deemed to be positive for the economy and stoc

Bullish SGX Nikkei 225 Futures on delayed BOJ hike and Fed cut By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: As of 26 June, at 10:40 SGT, the SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract was up by 1.52%, led by semiconductor-related stocks Tokyo Electron and Advantest. Sumitomo Pharma surged following reports it is considering layoffs and a new plant. This would mark the 3rd consecutively daily gain, underpinned by dip-buying activity following a weak April (-5.03%) and May (-0.05%). Based on our technical target levels, t

Has Japan’s Stock Market Peaked? Buy on Dips By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: The SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract underperformed in April (-5.03%) and was nearly flat in May (-0.05%) as the rise in 10-year JGB yields following the BOJ’s March and May meetings weighed on semiconductor names and other growth stocks. Impact of Yen Depreciation: However, despite rising yields, due to interest rate differentials and carry trades, the Yen continued to depreciate against the Dollar. Alt

Analysing the Nikkei 225: Insights from the 50D-Moving Average By Eric Lee , Sales Director from Phillip Nova 50-day Moving Average and Historical Scenario The 50-day moving average often serves as a key consolidation level for the Nikkei 225. Historically, after significant up or down movements, the index tends to consolidate around this average before resuming its trend. A notable example occurred between mid-July and mid-November 2023. Following a rise from 26,000 to 34,000 points from mid-March to midJune 2023, the index consolidated around th

EURUSD forms Diamond Pattern; Suggests Bearish Reversal The EURUSD has been consolidating in a diamond formation since a week ago after bouncing off the April bottom around 1.0602. Diamond pattern, when identified after an uptrend, suggests that prices tend to reverse to the downside. Since 8 March, the EURUSD has been on a broader downtrend and the rally since mid April could be a pullback within the broader downtrend. Currently, prices are capped below a historical resistance zone around the 1.072 zone, which adds confluence to our bearish outlook

Weekly Analysis: USDJPY Bullish on Ascending Triangle Breakout On weekly chart, the USDJPY continues soaring after a bullish breakout from a long term ascending triangle formed since 2022. The bullish breakout occurred on 10th of April when the pair decisively pierced above the 152 resistance zone, and the breakout with an upside target of 176 (measured by triangles height) remains valid as the subsequent weeks continued closing higher beyond 152. While BOJ had already exited from its negative interest rates policy, the interest rates differential betwee

Green Bull Flag in FCPO From a technical standpoint, prices have consolidated into a bull flag consolidation pattern since 14 March, breaking out of the flag resistance (orange trend channel) yesterday, albeit with normal volume. This localised breakout coupled with the breakout of the long-term parabolic bowl accumulation pattern at 4,150, a pattern forming since July 2023, signalled a possible continuation of the bullish climb to retest 4350 levels. Fibonacci retracements can be seen respected at 61%, 50% and 38% r