NOKIA: Is It Time to Take Another Look at the Stock?Is it time to pay attention to Nokia once again? Once the global leader in mobile phones, Nokia later suffered a dramatic stock market collapse following the arrival of the first smartphones, particularly Apple's.
After trading near its lows for almost 14 years, between 2012 and 2026, Nokia's stock appears to have entered a new long-term uptrend since mid-2025, supported by the company's return to profitability.
Yet almost nobody buys Nokia smartphones anymore. So why is the stock attracting investors again? The answer lies in artificial intelligence.
In reality, Nokia is no longer the smartphone manufacturer the general public knew fifteen years ago. Today, the company is a global leader in telecommunications infrastructure, with businesses focused on 5G mobile networks, fixed broadband networks, optical networking, cloud infrastructure, and software solutions for telecom operators and large enterprises.
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence represents a new growth opportunity. AI data centers, hyperscalers, and the increasing demand for high-speed connectivity require networks that are faster, more reliable, and more energy-efficient. Nokia provides exactly the equipment and technologies that make this infrastructure possible.
With profitability restored, a healthier balance sheet, and a valuation that remains attractive compared with many technology companies, Nokia is once again drawing the attention of investors. The market now sees a company well positioned to benefit from the major structural trends of the coming years: artificial intelligence, cloud computing, fiber optics, advanced 5G, and eventually 6G.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has broken above an exceptionally strong long-term accumulation pattern—a horizontal trading range that lasted 14 years. Such a breakout is one of the most powerful bullish reversal signals in technical analysis. Any pullback toward the former upper boundary of this range, between €8 and €10, should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity, particularly if the stock retests its 200-day moving average.
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of Nokia shares, highlighting the recent breakout above a 14-year trading range that lasted from 2012 to 2026. This is a powerful long-term accumulation pattern marking the end of a bear market.
From a valuation standpoint, Nokia also appears inexpensive compared with its direct competitors.
The table below compares Nokia's valuation with companies operating in the same industry. Nokia stands out as attractively valued based on both its forward P/E ratio and its Price-to-Sales ratio.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Semiconductors (SOX): This Is the Signal You Need to Watch!Far more than geopolitics or the situation in the Middle East, the long-term trend in the semiconductor sector is currently the number one fundamental concern for major financial institutions.
Semiconductors are the segment of the technology sector generating the highest profits and, above all, the strongest expected earnings. AI GPUs, AI memory chips, data centers, and other computing chips have driven this sector to a near-vertical stock market rally since the spring of 2025.
Given its mathematical weight in the calculation of the S&P 500 index, this market segment will ultimately determine when the S&P 500 reaches its cyclical peak.
It is not worthwhile to predict the end of the long-term bull trend every single week because, after each short-term correction, the underlying uptrend has consistently resumed. Claiming every week that the market has reached its top is therefore a losing strategy.
Instead, investors should adopt a more precise and methodical approach by waiting for genuine, tangible signals that the long-term trend of the U.S. stock market has turned bearish. Until such signals appear, every short-term correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Here is the key takeaway: in technical analysis, the strongest and most reliable signals come from long-term charts, namely the monthly timeframe. Only a technical signal from this long-term horizon can truly invalidate a major bullish trend.
In this new analysis published on TradingView, I invite you to closely monitor the RSI indicator on the monthly SOX chart. For more than 30 years, whenever the RSI has fallen back below the overbought zone (70), whether preceded by a bearish divergence or not, it has signaled a significant pullback in the SOX.
Take a close look at the chart below. For now, this bearish signal has not yet been triggered. But the day it is confirmed, expect a substantial correction in semiconductor stocks—and therefore in the S&P 500 as well.
The chart below shows the monthly Japanese candlesticks of the U.S. Semiconductor Index (SOX).
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
APPLOVIN: Is it too late to buy this gem?AppLovin is an American technology company founded in 2012 and listed on the stock market in 2021. Classified within the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, under the Application Software industry, the company develops a software platform powered by artificial intelligence to optimize digital advertising and mobile application monetization.
Its proprietary AXON engine analyzes billions of signals to improve advertising campaign targeting and advertisers’ return on investment. Today, AppLovin is no longer limited to the mobile gaming market: its expertise is gradually being deployed in e-commerce and other segments of digital advertising, significantly expanding its total addressable market.
Its AXON software is clearly considered a world-class technology gem, and AppLovin has now become the king of AI-powered advertising. The group is delivering one of the fastest growth rates in the software sector, combined with strong cash generation and exceptionally high operating margins.
This combination explains why the market grants AppLovin a higher valuation than many traditional software companies. However, this premium valuation reflects high expectations regarding continued earnings growth and further expansion of its advertising platform.
Since its inclusion in the S&P 500, AppLovin has also become a closely followed company among institutional investors and is now one of the largest market capitalizations in the global software industry.
Originally, AppLovin operated in the video game industry as a mobile game publisher. In 2025, the company sold its entire historical mobile applications and gaming business to focus exclusively on AXON. And AXON is clearly delivering outstanding results, with exceptional profitability and still significant growth potential ahead.
Is it too late to invest in AppLovin shares? Is AppLovin’s AXON really without any serious competitors?
No, AppLovin’s AXON does have serious competitors, but the situation needs to be put into perspective: competition exists, yet very few players currently combine a comparable level of data, AI algorithms, advertising volume and continuous machine-learning feedback loops. This is precisely the core element of the AppLovin investment thesis.
The table below compares technology companies in the “Application Software” industry based on three criteria: market capitalization, traditional P/E ratio and forward P/E ratio. AppLovin ranks among the least expensive companies according to the forward P/E metric. Therefore, if expected earnings are achieved, AppLovin stock could still be considered attractively valued at current prices.
The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of AppLovin’s stock.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
SOLANA – Has the Bottom Been Reached?Solana is the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins. You can find the real-time cryptocurrency rankings by market capitalization on the TradingView page below.
fr.tradingview.com
Solana is the third-largest blockchain after Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is a next-generation blockchain designed to provide fast, low-cost, and highly scalable transactions. It has established itself as the third most important public blockchain behind Bitcoin and Ethereum thanks to its dynamic ecosystem spanning decentralized finance (DeFi), payments, NFTs, and Web3 applications. Its high-performance architecture now makes it one of the most attractive infrastructures for developers and institutional investors.
Naturally, after an 80% decline from its all-time high reached in January 2025, an important question arises: is it time to buy again?
The answer should be approached from two perspectives: the cyclical outlook and the technical outlook.
From a cyclical perspective, Solana is broadly correlated with Bitcoin's four-year market cycle, a cycle structured around the quadrennial halving. The pattern is straightforward: three years of bullish trend followed by one year of bear market. The year 2026 is the bear market phase. To learn more, I invite you to read my latest Bitcoin analysis, which explains why the cyclical bear market could come to an end next autumn.
The chart below links to my latest Bitcoin analysis published on TradingView, highlighting that the end of the four-year cyclical bear market is expected between the end of summer and early autumn 2026.
From a timing perspective, it may therefore be wiser to wait for Bitcoin to establish its final bottom before returning to the SOL token.
From a purely technical analysis standpoint, the SOL/USD weekly chart currently displays a bullish price/momentum divergence at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The bearish trend will be confirmed as over once the market moves back above the weekly Ichimoku cloud.
The chart below shows Solana's weekly Japanese candlestick chart (SOL/USD).
A bullish price/momentum divergence is present, while the market is holding the 78.6% retracement level of the previous bull market.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
S&P 500: Here's Why the 8,000-Point Level MattersThe long-term trend of the S&P 500 index remains bullish, and correction phases rarely last more than a few weeks, with drawdowns generally limited to between 10% and 20%. Every time the S&P 500 experiences a correction, pessimists start talking about a stock market crash, yet each decline has consistently provided a buying opportunity before the uptrend resumed.
This bullish trend continues because the fundamentals remain strong, and the long-term outlook is equally solid.
However, one thing is certain: there will eventually come a time when the US equity market reaches such an elevated valuation that a major market top will inevitably form.
As long as corporate earnings prospects—particularly those driven by artificial intelligence—remain exceptionally strong, every correction should be viewed as an opportunity. This is precisely what I highlighted last week in my analysis of the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio.
When assessing stock market valuations, however, it is essential to maintain a balanced perspective. One useful approach is to combine the Forward P/E ratio (which reflects expected future earnings) with the Shiller P/E ratio (which is based on companies' inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years).
The chart below, sourced from GuruFocus, illustrates the valuation of the S&P 500 using the Shiller P/E ratio (also known as the CAPE ratio).
The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio (or CAPE ratio) currently stands around 40, while the all-time record, reached in December 1999, was approximately 44.
Using a simple projection, a return to a CAPE ratio of 44 would imply an S&P 500 level around 8,000 to 8,200 points.
Beyond being a psychologically important round number, the 8,000-point level therefore deserves extremely close attention, as the S&P 500 would once again be trading at its historical peak in terms of the Shiller P/E ratio.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education
Palantir (PLTR): Is It Time to Buy Again?Palantir’s stock price has fallen by almost 50% since its all-time high reached in November last year. A legitimate question arises: is it already time to start buying again, or is it still too early from both a technical and fundamental perspective?
To answer this question, I will focus on:
• Palantir’s valuation ratios
• Technical analysis signals from financial markets
Palantir Technologies is a US software company specializing in big data analytics, artificial intelligence, and decision-support platforms. Founded in 2003, it has been listed on the Nasdaq for two years under the ticker symbol PLTR and belongs to the information technology sector, more specifically the infrastructure software industry.
Unlike semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA or AMD, Palantir does not manufacture electronic components. Its business model is based on developing platforms capable of connecting, structuring, and analyzing large amounts of data from multiple sources — in other words, big data.
The company mainly offers three solutions: Gotham, used by governments, defense organizations, and intelligence agencies; Foundry, designed for companies to optimize their operations; and AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform), which integrates generative artificial intelligence into decision-making processes.
The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of Palantir’s stock (PLTR). The stock has lost almost 50% since its all-time high reached in November 2025.
Palantir works with both public and private sector organizations across various industries, including defense, healthcare, industrials, energy, and finance. Its competitive advantage lies in its ability to manage complex environments, secure data, and transform information into operational decisions. Its recent growth has been strongly supported by the rise of artificial intelligence, but the stock eventually entered a correction after reaching a record high last November.
So, is it time to buy again? From a fundamental perspective, despite the 50% decline, the stock remains extremely expensive — arguably too expensive — based on valuation metrics such as the Forward P/E, traditional P/E, and Price-to-Sales ratio.
The table below presents the ranking of US companies belonging to the AI software/infrastructure industry within the technology sector. The ranking criterion is the Forward P/E ratio, and despite its 48% correction over recent months, Palantir remains a very expensive stock market valuation.
From a technical perspective, the stock is still trading within a bearish structure. It would need to break upward out of this structure to generate a signal confirming a final bottom. This has not happened at the time of writing. According to Fibonacci ratios, an area of technical interest is located between $80 and $100.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Is It Time to Buy Private Credit Again?Over the past decade, private credit has become one of the most important segments of alternative finance. It refers to loans granted directly to companies by specialized investment funds, outside the traditional banking system. After a period of rapid expansion driven by low interest rates and strong demand for leverage, the key question today is whether this market is approaching a cyclical bottom after experiencing a sharp decline in the stock market over recent months.
The risks currently facing the sector are real but remain contained. Default rates have increased compared with the 2020–2021 period, although they remain well below systemic levels. The real concern is not so much the number of visible defaults as the emergence of more subtle warning signs: the growing use of "PIK" (Payment-in-Kind) loans, where interest is added to the outstanding debt rather than being paid in cash, the increase in discreet debt restructurings, and mounting pressure on the most highly leveraged companies financed during the 2021–2023 boom.
In this environment, not all market participants face the same level of exposure. The sector is dominated by a handful of major publicly traded platforms that combine asset management with direct corporate lending. Two distinct profiles stand out.
The table below presents the leading US companies in the private equity and private credit industries, together with the share of each activity within their business models. These five companies are the true barometer of the health of the private credit market. Technical analysis of their stocks can therefore provide highly valuable signals to answer the question addressed in this analysis.
On one side are diversified mega-platforms such as Apollo Global Management, Blackstone and KKR, which operate across private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure. Their diversification cushions market shocks but also makes them sensitive to the broader cycle of alternative assets.
On the other side are private credit specialists such as Ares Management and Blue Owl Capital, whose business models rely primarily on direct lending. These firms are more directly exposed to any deterioration in loan quality, but they also provide a clearer picture of the credit cycle.
The key point is that private credit remains a relatively young market that is now entering a more mature phase of its cycle. After years of exceptionally favorable conditions, the industry is undergoing a gradual normalization. Leading indicators, particularly the share of PIK loans and the rise in restructurings, suggest not a systemic crisis but rather a period of localized stress.
If macroeconomic conditions stabilize and interest rates begin to move lower again, private credit could gradually return to a healthier environment. However, if economic growth slows, existing pockets of weakness could intensify before any lasting stabilization occurs.
From a technical analysis perspective, the long-term monthly charts of the companies listed above show that their share prices have now returned to major support levels. However, the market will likely require several weeks or even months of stabilization before the long-term uptrend can resume, allowing investors to gain confidence that the Federal Reserve will not embark on another tightening cycle for the federal funds rate.
The chart below displays the monthly Japanese candlesticks for ARES.
The chart below displays the monthly Japanese candlesticks for Blue Owl Capital.
The chart below displays the monthly Japanese candlesticks for Blackstone.
Education
Silver (XAG/USD), DCA Zone Between $47 and $52The price of silver (XAG/USD) has declined by more than 50% since its all-time high reached at the end of last January, following the completion of a "blow-off top" phase that drove the price up to $120.
Six months of correction have now produced a technical setup that appears oversold, at least in the short term. This naturally raises the following question: is it time to start buying XAG/USD again in the commodities market?
Silver benefits from a strong industrial supply-demand imbalance, with demand growing rapidly while supply remains heavily constrained by the physical limitations of silver mine production. Therefore, sharp declines in the silver price do represent opportunities, but investors should not enter positions indiscriminately without first confirming several fundamental conditions.
The chart below displays the daily Japanese candlesticks of silver (XAG/USD). The correction has now exceeded 50% since the end of last January.
Several fundamental conditions should be met before confidently buying silver again:
• Naturally, the first condition concerns market correlations: silver is likely to establish its major bottom once gold has completed its annual correction. Regarding gold, I invite you to read my analysis published on TradingView in June.
Is the decline in gold over? The chart below will take you to my analysis on the search for gold's market bottom.
• The second condition concerns the US dollar. Once again, due to market correlations, silver should stabilize once the US dollar has completed its rebound in the Forex market. The chart below directs you to my latest analysis of the US dollar rebound.
• The third condition is technical in nature and also concerns institutional positioning in silver. After a 50% correction, the price can stabilize if it returns to a major long-term technical support level. The most obvious long-term support currently lies around $50.
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of silver (XAG/USD).
• Most of the decline in XAG/USD since last January has been driven by institutional traders reducing their leveraged positions after taking profits. This deleveraging process is now well advanced and should allow XAG/USD to stabilize around the major $50 support.
The histogram below illustrates institutional positioning in XAG/USD futures and options.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Should you buy the EUR/CHF rate?For several months now, major central banks around the world have begun intervening in the floating foreign exchange market (Forex). The main reason is the strength of the US dollar since the beginning of the year, linked to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) status quo.
Asian central banks were the first to act, as major emerging Asian currencies fell following geopolitical events in the Middle East. This decline in currencies such as the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and South Korean won forced the respective central banks to intervene in FX markets to slow their depreciation against the US dollar.
Japan is another example, with direct interventions by the Bank of Japan in the Forex market amounting to tens of billions of US dollars, buying yen and selling US dollars in order to stop the rise of USD/JPY.
All these central banks share the same objective: to neutralize or slow the appreciation of the US dollar against their domestic currencies. This marks the return of direct or indirect central bank intervention in FX markets.
However, the situation is different for the Swiss franc (CHF). The Swiss National Bank directly intervenes in Forex markets to slow the appreciation of the franc, which attracts capital due to its safe-haven status.
Below is the first part of the press release from the Swiss National Bank’s latest monetary policy decision dated June 18, explicitly mentioning intervention in the foreign exchange market.
The latest monetary policy decision from the Swiss National Bank explicitly states that the central bank may intervene at any time to curb the appreciation of the franc and therefore the decline of the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
The EUR/CHF pair remains in a downward technical trend, but this move is showing signs of exhaustion, as illustrated by a descending wedge pattern.
However, there is currently no buy signal on EUR/CHF. Staying short is becoming increasingly risky, as you are effectively trading against a central bank.
A first bullish signal would be a breakout above the weekly Ichimoku cloud.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks of the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The S&P 500 is not expensive based on its Forward P/EThe second-quarter 2026 earnings season will begin this July, and once again the technology sector and the semiconductor industry are expected to be the main focus.
The S&P 500 index continues to trade close to its all-time high, and I invite you to review the analysis below to discover the technical and fundamental upside potential for the S&P 500 through the end of the year.
With that in mind, one question arises again at the beginning of July, ahead of the quarterly earnings season: is the S&P 500 too expensive from a valuation perspective?
The stock market is always forward-looking, which is why the Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio (Forward P/E) is the most relevant valuation multiple for determining whether the S&P 500 is overvalued or still relatively inexpensive.
The good news is that the Forward P/E currently stands at its five-year average, meaning that the S&P 500 is not overvalued relative to its expected earnings.
Let us first recall what the Forward P/E represents.
The Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio measures the relationship between the current level of the index and the earnings per share expected over the next twelve months. Unlike the traditional P/E ratio, which is based on historical earnings, the Forward P/E reflects analysts' earnings expectations and therefore provides an excellent indicator of the market's future valuation.
The chart below (Source: FactSet) illustrates the evolution of the S&P 500 Forward P/E. Despite reaching new all-time highs, the S&P 500 is not expensive relative to its expected earnings over the next twelve months. The Forward P/E currently stands at its five-year average and remains well below its historical peak of 23.5.
As shown in the chart above, the S&P 500 Forward P/E is currently trading at around 20 times expected earnings, a level that is almost identical to its average over the past five years. While it remains slightly above its ten-year average of approximately 19 times earnings, this premium is limited and does not indicate excessive market overvaluation.
This assessment is all the more important as earnings expectations for U.S. companies continue to be revised upward, particularly in sectors related to artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and semiconductors. If quarterly earnings reports confirm these expectations, earnings growth could absorb part of the recent increase in stock prices, allowing the Forward P/E to remain at reasonable levels.
In other words, the U.S. equity market remains demanding, but it is not excessively valued considering the expected earnings growth. The coming weeks will therefore be decisive: earnings results that exceed expectations would reinforce the scenario of a continued bullish trend in the S&P 500 through year-end, whereas disappointing earnings or weaker forward guidance could trigger a consolidation phase without necessarily calling the underlying uptrend into question, provided that earnings expectations remain solid.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education 
BITCOIN, end of the bear market in 100 daysBitcoin has continued to evolve within its bearish cycle in place since Monday, October 6 last year, and the month of June ended with a particularly disappointing performance. According to market cycle analysis, nearly three-quarters of this corrective phase have now been completed, and an opportunity window could open in the fall (between late August and late October next) to re-enter Bitcoin at lower prices.
The four-year cycle remains the main technical reference and the dominant technical factor for the underlying trend of Bitcoin’s price.
The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, the rise of institutional adoption, the development of companies holding Bitcoin in their treasuries, as well as expected regulatory progress with the Clarity Act, could have suggested that the traditional four-year cycle was a thing of the past.
Yet this model, historically driven by the halving occurring every four years, continues to guide market evolution. It is based on a relatively stable alternation: about three years of growth followed by one year of bear market.
The year 2026 once again confirms the relevance of this cyclical interpretation. Bitcoin’s current evolution indeed mirrors the timeline observed during previous bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022, each occurring four years after a major corrective phase.
The Bitcoin four-year cycle is structured around the quadrennial halving, with a market bottom 550 days before the halving and a bull market peak 550 days after the halving.
Some see this as proof that institutionalization has ultimately not changed Bitcoin’s behavior. However, this conclusion appears premature. The gradual integration of BTC into the financial system, particularly in the United States, continues, and the potential adoption of the Clarity Act would represent another step in this long-term dynamic.
The fact that the four-year cycle continues to hold is even reassuring for investors. If this historical pattern continues, the current bearish phase could end by the end of 2026, paving the way for a new bullish cycle potentially leading Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
On average, a cyclical Bitcoin bear market lasts about 365 days. At this stage, nearly 270 days have already passed since the beginning of this phase, suggesting a possible end of the corrective move around September and within a price range between 45,000 USD and 50,000 USD.
The chart below illustrates the average 365-day duration of Bitcoin bear markets.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Strategy Stock: Is the Bottom in Sight?Strategy stock has fallen by more than 80% since reaching its all-time high last July. This corrective phase is perfectly in line with Bitcoin's cyclical bear market, which follows the well-known four-year cycle, with bear market years occurring in 2014, 2018, 2022, 2026, and 2030.
Strategy is the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, having accumulated more than 800,000 BTC with a total value of approximately US$50 billion. The company's current market capitalization stands at around US$35 billion, significantly below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, highlighting a deeply oversold situation.
Does this mean that the bottom in Strategy stock is now within reach?
The chart below (Source: Strategy & Bloomberg) shows the ratio between Strategy's market capitalization and the value of the Bitcoin it holds. This ratio is currently below 1.
Nevertheless, caution is still warranted because the company faces dividend payments this summer, while Bitcoin's cyclical bear market is expected to end at the end of next September. This summer will therefore represent an important stress test for Strategy, which has recently implemented a mechanism designed to comfortably meet its dividend obligations over the next 17 months.
Strategy has allocated US$2.55 billion to a dedicated reserve that may only be used to pay:
• dividends on its preferred shares (STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK),
• interest payments on its convertible debt.
This reserve provides approximately 17.4 months of coverage for current dividend and interest obligations, extending well beyond the expected end of Bitcoin's cyclical bear market.
The company also has the option to sell up to US$1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin if necessary.
• This authorization has already been approved by the Board of Directors.
• If exercised, the coverage period would increase from approximately 17.4 months to nearly 26 months.
In short, Strategy should be able to meet all of its financial obligations. With Bitcoin's cyclical low expected in about three months, Strategy stock should also establish its own cyclical bottom during the summer.
The chart below shows the monthly Japanese candlestick chart of Strategy stock. The 2022 bear market ended with a trading range between the 78.6% and 96% Fibonacci retracement levels. Those retracement levels currently lie between US$35 and US$127.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Bitcoin Power Law: strong support at $58K?Do you regularly read my analyses on TradingView? If so, that is excellent news, because you already know that Bitcoin is currently in its cyclical bear-market year and that the final bottom of this bear cycle is expected to occur by next autumn. After that, a new three-year bullish phase is expected to develop before the next cyclical bear market, which is projected for 2030.
If, on the other hand, you do not follow my work on TradingView, then you may not be familiar with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. In that case, I encourage you to learn more by reading some of my previous analyses on the subject. The complete archive of my work is available on the Swissquote profile page on TradingView.
Today, I would like to discuss a mathematical model that claims to identify the final low point for Bitcoin in 2026: the Power Law Model. According to this model, Bitcoin’s final cyclical bottom could occur around $58,000 during the summer or early autumn.
The chart below illustrates the Bitcoin Power Law model. The blue line represents the model’s cyclical price floor.
How does this model work?
The principle is relatively straightforward. Supporters of the Power Law theory argue that Bitcoin does not follow a traditional exponential growth path but rather a "power law" growth pattern. In other words, Bitcoin continues to appreciate over the long term, but the pace of growth gradually slows as the network matures.
Using Bitcoin’s entire price history since 2009, the model draws a central curve representing the network’s theoretical value, along with an upper and lower channel designed to capture periods of excessive bullishness and bearishness.
Historically, major market tops have often approached the upper boundary of the channel, while bear markets have tended to end near the lower boundary. It is precisely this lower boundary that is currently attracting analysts’ attention.
According to the model’s current projections, the lower band should stand near $58,000 in the coming months, corresponding to what the model considers the most pessimistic valuation scenario based on historical statistical behavior.
Of course, no model can predict the future with certainty. The Power Law Model is not a crystal ball but rather an estimation tool based on trends observed since Bitcoin’s creation. Like all models, it can be invalidated by major macroeconomic developments, regulatory changes, or simply by market behavior that differs from historical patterns.
Nevertheless, as long as Bitcoin’s cyclical structure remains intact, the $58,000 threshold deserves close attention, as it could represent the final capitulation zone of the 2026 cyclical bear market before the start of a new multi-year bull cycle.
You can click on the chart below to explore other Bitcoin forecasting models that also suggest a market bottom in the $50,000–$58,000 area by autumn.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Is the Gold Decline Over?Since their all-time highs reached at the end of last January, both the gold price and the silver price have fallen sharply on the financial markets. Silver (XAG/USD) has lost more than 55%, while gold (XAU/USD) has declined by 30%.
This decline is all the more surprising (for those who are not familiar with the fundamentals of precious metals) because it occurred in a very challenging geopolitical environment that should have supported gold’s safe-haven appeal.
The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlestick chart of the gold price.
However, if you had read my gold analysis published at the beginning of June, you would have been aware of the technical vulnerabilities visible on the long-term charts, as well as the combination of fundamental factors behind this decline in the gold price.
Gold Price: Could $5,600 in January 2026 Mark the Cycle Peak? You can click on the chart below to read this analysis published on TradingView.
Is this 30% decline in the gold price enough to justify buying again? That is not the right question. The real question is: which fundamental conditions need to be met before considering a recovery in the gold price?
Several of the long-term bullish drivers remain fully intact, particularly continued gold purchases by central banks. However, some of the factors that previously fueled the rally have faded and must re-emerge before the correction that began last January can be considered over.
Among these drivers, the most important is the trend of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, and therefore the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at a decisive technical crossroads, while the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged this year is fluctuating around 50%.
To put it simply, because of market correlations, gold will rebound when the US dollar's uptrend on the foreign exchange market, which has been in place since the beginning of the year, comes to an end. For gold and silver to recover, the Fed must refrain from raising the federal funds rate through the end of 2026.
The chart below shows the monthly Japanese candlestick chart of gold (XAU/USD) on a logarithmic scale.
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of gold. The $3,400 level corresponds to the inflation-adjusted all-time high reached in 1980.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Will the Fed Maintain the Status Quo?The Federal Reserve (Fed), now chaired by Kevin Warsh, recently announced a monetary policy decision and updated its macroeconomic projections. The Fed reiterated its 2% inflation target without explicitly signaling an upcoming interest rate hike.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed sought to reassure markets of its commitment to fighting inflation while refraining from following the rate hike implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June.
Institutional finance is now deeply divided regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The Fed also confirmed that it continues its technical quantitative easing (QE), namely its short-term operations aimed at maintaining an adequate level of bank reserves.
Kevin Warsh highlighted several criteria that will be decisive in the coming weeks in determining whether an increase in the federal funds rate will be necessary. The price of oil and the evolution of US core PCE inflation will be key factors this summer when the Fed prepares for its September monetary policy meeting.
So how can investors form a well-reasoned opinion about what the Fed might do after the summer? I suggest closely monitoring the following four indicators:
• US crude oil price (WTI)
• US inflation rate as measured by core PCE (which should not exceed 3.3% this year)
• US 2-year Treasury yield
• Market expectations derived from federal funds futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME FedWatch Tool)
The histogram below represents the annual US inflation rate according to the Core PCE Price Index. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and Kevin Warsh recently stated the objective of keeping core PCE below 3.3% throughout 2026.
The chart below, sourced from TradingView, also includes data from the CME FedWatch Tool, which provides market expectations regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy and federal funds rate decisions.
The chart below displays weekly Japanese candlesticks for US crude oil (WTI). Below $80, a technical normalization process has begun, but the bullish gap created on Monday, March 2, between $67 and $69 would need to be filled for a genuine return to the environment that prevailed before February 28, when the strikes against Iran began.
The chart below displays daily Japanese candlesticks for the US 2-year Treasury yield. As long as it remains above the Fed’s policy rate, the market considers it appropriate for the Fed to raise rates.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education
US Dollar, a decisive technical signal?The US dollar has now been moving sideways in the floating foreign exchange market, the Forex, for the past 12 months. The US dollar against a basket of major currencies (the ticker is DXY if you are looking for it on TradingView) represents the underlying trend of the US dollar in the FX market, essentially an average against the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound.
The DXY is by far the benchmark used by institutional traders on trading floors to assess the trend followed by, and potentially to be followed by, the US dollar. Due to market correlations, the underlying trend of the US dollar can have a major impact on stock markets, so the technical decision that will be made is likely to influence financial markets throughout the summer.
The US dollar has been rising since the beginning of the year. It has been supported by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, and now the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate is providing additional bullish support.
Regarding expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, the consensus remains highly divided between a scenario in which the Fed is merely communicating firmly to protect its credibility and another in which it is seriously considering raising the federal funds rate (as the ECB has done).
This will clearly depend on the trend in oil prices this summer and on the evolution of core PCE inflation, for which the Fed does not expect a sustained move above 3.3% by the end of the year.
However, if the opposite situation were to occur, a rate hike would become necessary. It is this decision by Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve that will determine the technical direction taken by the US dollar (DXY).
The long-term chart (here using a weekly time frame) reveals an important piece of information: the 100–102 point area is a major long-term pivot zone. In other words, a breakout above it, or conversely a rejection from it, could trigger movements lasting several weeks.
Put simply, if the US dollar breaks above 102 points, it could accelerate higher toward 106 points, with a significant impact through inverse correlations, particularly on the price of gold in financial markets.
Conversely, if the 102-point resistance triggers a bearish rejection, the US dollar would resume the downtrend that has been in place since the end of 2022. In short, the US dollar stands at a technical crossroads at the beginning of the summer, and the technical signal it provides could have a major impact across all asset classes.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for the US dollar (DXY) against a basket of major currencies.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Oil: The Technical Normalization Is UnderwayThe geopolitical situation in the Middle East has evolved significantly since the beginning of June, with the confirmed end of the military operations that began on February 28 between the United States/Israel and Iran. Negotiations between the United States and Iran are continuing in an effort to reach a comprehensive peace agreement, a negotiation period during which a gradual economic normalization is expected.
It will take a considerable amount of time—weeks, and probably months—to achieve a normalization of industrial operations around the Persian Gulf and a complete normalization of maritime traffic entering the Strait of Hormuz.
That being said, can a stock market barometer be used to anticipate this economic normalization at an early stage?
This is where technical analysis signals applied to oil prices can be useful. In previous articles on TradingView, I have already described my technical roadmap for oil prices, which have declined significantly on the financial markets since the beginning of May.
Can we therefore speak of a return to the pre-February 28 environment for oil prices and their inflationary impact?
Not yet, but yes, normalization is clearly already well underway.
The chart below shows the technical levels that I described as early as the beginning of March, and I have not modified them. Oil prices have exited the inflation shock zone as well as the technical red-alert zone by moving back below the $80 level.
The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of US crude oil (WTI).
Below $80, we can speak of a normalization of oil prices and a broadly neutral impact on headline inflation. However, the true technical signal of normalization has not yet been confirmed. It would be the filling of the bullish gap opened on Monday, March 2, between $67 and $69. The day US oil prices fill that gap, the return to the pre-February 28 environment will effectively be validated.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
SpaceX: Far Too Expensive from a Fundamental PerspectiveA behavior is often observed in the stock market among retail investors. It tends to occur when a very famous and inspiring company goes public. In such cases, retail investors often rush in and seek to participate massively in the IPO.
This is exactly what has just happened with the SpaceX IPO. Demand from retail traders has been enormous, and volatility during the first trading sessions of SpaceX stock has already been very high.
Market history has shown that, more often than not, participating in an IPO is not the ideal timing, even when the company is highly renowned and possesses enormous fundamental potential. The better approach is often to wait for a significant correction in the stock price during the months following the IPO and take a position at that stage.
In the case of SpaceX, it is important to keep in mind that the company is not yet profitable. That is where the risk lies.
Investors rushing into the stock today are not paying for the company’s current results, but rather for an extremely optimistic scenario regarding its future development. When a company is valued primarily on growth expectations, even a small disappointment can trigger substantial declines in the share price.
The figures speak for themselves. With a price-to-sales ratio close to 95 times annual revenue, SpaceX is trading at valuation levels rarely seen in financial market history. For comparison, NVIDIA, widely regarded as one of the most exceptional companies in the world due to its dominant position in artificial intelligence, trades at a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 20 times. Micron Technology, another major beneficiary of the AI revolution, trades at around 15 times sales.
The table below presents a valuation comparison between SpaceX, Nvidia, and Micron stocks.
The gap becomes even more striking when examining EBITDA multiples. SpaceX is trading at between 75 and 100 times its estimated EBITDA, compared with around 38 times for NVIDIA and only 16 times for Micron. In other words, the market is currently valuing SpaceX as if its future growth were virtually guaranteed for many years to come.
Of course, the company has exceptional strengths. Starlink continues its rapid expansion, government contracts are plentiful, and the Starship program could revolutionize the space industry over the long term. However, even the best companies in the world can become poor investments when purchased at excessive prices.
In the short term, SpaceX’s fundamental potential is probably real, but the current valuation leaves very little room for error. For this reason, it may be wiser to wait for a consolidation phase or a significant correction before considering a long-term investment in the stock.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The 3 most anticipated IPOs by investorsWhile the SpaceX stock has just been listed on the stock exchange and analysts are currently debating whether its valuation is already excessive, I am taking a look today at the next major IPOs expected on Wall Street before the end of the year.
What we are seeing is that after several years marked by a slowdown in IPO activity, certain private companies are generating exceptional interest due to their size, growth, and strategic position in future-oriented sectors. The SpaceX IPO has demonstrated this. The stock is indeed down from its recent peak, but this is often what is observed in the weeks following an IPO.
On TradingView, the ticker for SpaceX stock is SPCX.
NASDAQ:SPCX
Currently, three names stand out in IPO expectations: OpenAI, Stripe, and Databricks. Note that I have not included Anthropic (the Claude AI assistant), as its potential IPO is more likely expected in 2027 or 2028.
The first company on everyone’s lips is OpenAI. Having become a key player in artificial intelligence thanks to the global success of ChatGPT, the company is now considered the leader of the generative AI revolution. Its influence extends far beyond the tech sector, impacting businesses, education, research, and even public administrations. A potential IPO of OpenAI could become one of the most significant financial events of the decade and attract massive interest from investors worldwide.
Stripe is also among the most anticipated IPOs. Founded in 2010, the company has established itself as one of the leading global online payment platforms. Its solutions enable millions of businesses to easily manage digital transactions. Thanks to steady growth and a strong international presence, Stripe is often seen as one of the best-positioned private companies to succeed on Wall Street. Its IPO could become one of the largest ever in the fintech sector.
The chart below shows the 3 most anticipated IPOs on Wall Street, with a comparison to SpaceX’s recent IPO.
Finally, Databricks completes this closely followed trio. Specializing in data analytics and infrastructure for artificial intelligence, the company benefits from the growing demand for technologies that process and leverage massive volumes of data. Databricks holds a strategic position at the heart of the AI ecosystem and works with many major companies around the world.
These three companies embody the major current technological trends: artificial intelligence, digital payments, and data valorization. Their potential IPOs could not only attract billions of dollars in capital but also set the tone for the next major trend in the S&P 500 index.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio: a key indicator to watchIn my recent analyses published on TradingView, I have explained that the price of Bitcoin continues to follow its four-year cycle remarkably well, providing strong visibility into its future trend.
Three years of bullish trend followed by one year of a cyclical bear market: this recurring pattern revolves around the halving event, which cuts Bitcoin production in half every four years through a reduction in mining rewards.
The year 2026 is a cyclical bear market year for Bitcoin. This bear market began on October 6 from the level of $126,000. Historically, the average duration of a cyclical Bitcoin bear market is around 12 months, although the final bottoming phase usually begins earlier and can last for several months.
In other words, the final cyclical bottoming phase for BTC is expected between this summer and the very beginning of next autumn.
First, I invite you to review my latest Bitcoin analyses by consulting my publication history and following the Swissquote account, where I publish daily on TradingView:
www.tradingview.com
In this new analysis, I will highlight the technical and timing signals provided by the BTC/S&P 500 ratio, which measures the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to the S&P 500 index.
This ratio is particularly important for identifying both cyclical tops and cyclical bottoms in BTC/USD. It also follows a recurring pattern of three-year bull markets and one-year bear market phases. Historically, the bearish phase has generally retraced 78.6% of the previous three-year bullish advance.
This 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is now approaching and could be tested this summer, potentially validating the cyclical bottom zone for Bitcoin. It is also worth noting that a potential bullish price/momentum divergence (using the RSI technical indicator) is currently developing, similar to what occurred during the final stages of previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022.
From a timing perspective, by July or August this BTC/SPX ratio will have completed approximately 12 months of bear market conditions, which corresponds to the average duration observed in previous cycles.
The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education
Apollo: Is It Time to Return to Private Equity?Private equity involves investing in companies that are not publicly listed, with the objective of developing them, improving profitability, and then selling them several years later at a capital gain.
The private equity business model relies heavily on financial leverage, meaning the use of debt. When a private equity fund acquires a company, it generally finances only part of the purchase price with its own capital. A significant portion of the acquisition is financed through bank loans or bond issuance. This is known as a Leveraged Buyout (LBO).
Let's take a simple example. A fund wants to acquire a company valued at €1 billion. It may invest €300 million of equity capital and borrow €700 million. If, a few years later, the company is worth €1.5 billion and part of the debt has been repaid through the profits generated, the return on the initial €300 million investment can be substantial.
This is precisely why interest rates play such a central role in private equity. When interest rates are low, debt is inexpensive. Funds can borrow heavily, finance more transactions, and offer higher prices to sellers. This supports valuations and encourages a greater number of deals.
The chart below displays Apollo's monthly candlestick chart together with the Ichimoku system. The long-term trend remains clearly bullish.
Conversely, when central banks aggressively raise interest rates, as occurred between 2022 and 2024, financing costs increase sharply. Interest expenses become more burdensome, potential returns decline, and many transactions become less attractive. Funds therefore slow down acquisitions, while pressured company valuations tend to decline.
Higher interest rates also create a second challenge: they make exits more difficult. Initial public offerings (IPOs) and mergers and acquisitions become less frequent, reducing opportunities to sell portfolio companies.
Given that Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve appears inclined to maintain the federal funds rate at its current level, I believe private equity is currently in a lower phase of its cycle. If interest rates continue to decline gradually over the coming years, credit conditions should improve, transaction activity could recover, and major industry players such as Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo Global Management could benefit from a new growth cycle.
The chart below displays Apollo's weekly candlestick chart, highlighting the long-term support provided by the 200-week moving average.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Tells You When to Buy!I recently shared several analyses aimed at identifying, as early as possible, both the timing and the price range where Bitcoin’s cyclical bear market is likely to bottom within its four-year cycle.
Today, I would like to introduce the Sharpe Ratio applied to Bitcoin. This indicator is particularly useful for identifying both cyclical tops and cyclical bottoms in Bitcoin’s price.
Before diving deeper into the insights provided by the Sharpe Ratio, I invite you to revisit my latest analyses on Bitcoin, which seek to determine both the timing and the price zone of the final BTC bottom this year. You can access them through the charts below.
Now, let us return to our topic: what exactly is Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio, and what level of this indicator could signal the final bottom of Bitcoin’s cyclical bear market?
The Sharpe Ratio is a financial indicator that measures an asset's performance relative to the amount of risk taken to achieve that performance. The higher the ratio, the greater the return generated for each unit of volatility assumed. Conversely, a low or negative ratio indicates a period in which risk is not being adequately rewarded.
When this indicator is applied to Bitcoin on a weekly basis across multiple market cycles, a particularly interesting pattern emerges. Historically, peaks in the Sharpe Ratio have coincided with the periods of extreme euphoria that preceded the major market tops of 2013, 2017, and 2021. During these phases, Bitcoin’s returns become exceptionally high relative to the risk taken, often signaling that the market is entering the final stage of an overheated cycle.
The chart below displays Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio. A reading between -1 and -2 has historically been associated with the end of a cyclical bear market.
Conversely, deep troughs in the Sharpe Ratio typically appear during the most severe bear markets. As shown on the chart, declines below the -1.5 area have regularly marked periods of capitulation, when pessimism reaches extreme levels and investors abandon their positions.
The value of this indicator is therefore twofold: it helps identify profit-taking zones when the market becomes excessively optimistic, and accumulation zones when fear dominates investor sentiment.
Today, Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio is once again approaching its historically low zone. While no indicator can predict the exact market bottom with certainty, history suggests that periods when the ratio trades around or below the -1.5 threshold have often provided exceptional buying opportunities for long-term investors.
The Sharpe Ratio currently stands at -1.15. Ideally, one final decline below -1.5 would be needed before concluding that Bitcoin has reached its cyclical bottom.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education 
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: When Should Investors Buy Again?As you know, the second half of 2026 is expected to mark the end of Bitcoin’s cyclical bear market. I recently published several analyses aimed at refining both the timing and the price range of the expected cyclical bottom for Bitcoin and ETH/USD.
You can revisit those analyses by clicking on the charts below.
Here is my analysis of ETH/USD:
And here is my analysis of the timing and price range for Bitcoin’s cyclical bottom:
In this new crypto analysis, I will focus on the world's largest Bitcoin ETF by assets under management: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, ticker IBIT. The technical analysis of IBIT provides valuable insight into what the end of the cyclical bear market could look like.
Since IBIT’s initial listing in 2024, a fractal Elliott Wave structure has developed. Before examining the chart, it is useful to review the classic Elliott Wave pattern.
The infographic below illustrates the complete Elliott Wave structure, consisting of five bullish waves numbered 1 through 5, followed by three corrective waves labeled A, B, and C. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is currently in the final corrective wave C, suggesting that the bear market could end during the second half of 2026.
As you can observe, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has followed a textbook Elliott Wave structure with remarkable precision. Assuming that this pattern continues to guide market behavior, the final bear-market low could occur between $30 and $33 on IBIT.
Following that, a new long-term bullish cycle consisting of five upward waves could develop between 2027 and 2029.
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (ticker: IBIT).
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Why a Fed Rate Hike Is UnlikelyThe geopolitical situation since the end of February has completely reshaped expectations regarding the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the sharp rise in oil prices, natural gas, urea fertilizer, and industrial metals, along with the rebound in headline inflation, have led markets to shift from expecting cuts in the federal funds rate to anticipating rate hikes.
The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently well above the Fed's policy rate, meaning the market believes the federal funds rate should be higher than its current level of 3.75%. However, the Fed has changed leadership in the meantime. Kevin Warsh is now the Chairman of the Fed, although Jerome Powell remains a voting member of the FOMC.
The chart below presents market expectations regarding the future path of Fed interest rates. These expectations have been dramatically altered since the end of February.
Despite these new market expectations, largely driven by the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and therefore potentially reversible, I believe it is unlikely that Kevin Warsh's Fed will raise the federal funds rate this year, except in an extreme scenario.
Here are the reasons supporting this view:
First, the U.S. policy rate is already in restrictive territory. With the federal funds rate at 3.75%, monetary policy remains above most estimates of the neutral rate, generally considered to be between 2.5% and 3%. In other words, the Fed is already exerting a restraining effect on the economy and does not necessarily need to raise rates further to maintain restrictive financial conditions.
Second, underlying U.S. inflation remains relatively contained. While higher oil prices mechanically boost headline inflation, the Fed places greater emphasis on core inflation, which excludes food and energy. As long as core inflation remains under control, a preemptive rate hike appears difficult to justify.
The histogram below shows U.S. core inflation according to the CPI measure. Note that all economic data are available directly on TradingView.
Furthermore, U.S. bond yields have risen sharply in recent months. Long-term interest rates are already exerting significant pressure on credit markets, real estate, and investment activity. Part of the monetary tightening process is therefore being carried out directly by the market itself.
Finally, Kevin Warsh appears to favor reducing the Fed's balance sheet rather than raising interest rates again. Continuing quantitative tightening (QT) allows liquidity to be gradually withdrawn from the financial system and monetary conditions to be tightened without altering the policy rate. This approach seems more consistent in an environment where some liquidity pressures still persist in U.S. money markets.
Unless there is a sustained deterioration in core inflation, a wage-price spiral, or a loss of confidence in inflation expectations, the most likely scenario remains that the federal funds rate will stay at its current level for several more months.
The table below outlines the reasons why it is unlikely that the Fed, under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, will raise U.S. federal funds rates in the near term.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education 
