Gold at 200MA as double bottom neckline! Breakout or rejection?Gold pushed to $4,670 as the dollar flipped lower after a three-day advance on optimism around US-Iran negotiations and the pause of "Project Freedom". This video maps the double bottom at $4,500, the 200 MA neckline, and the measured move that opens the door to $4,820 and the 5K handle.
Key topics covered
- Dollar reversal on Iran de-escalation : The DXY flipped lower on Wednesday after a three-day advance as Rubio confirmed offensive operations have ended and Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for renewed talks with Tehran.
- ADP and NFP catalysts : Markets turn to ADP private payrolls today and NFP on Friday, the data that likely decides how the price action around the 200 MA resolves.
- Double bottom at $4,500 with bullish RSI divergence: Two defended lows at the 50% Fib flip point, with RSI on the 4-hour at 62, above the 50 line and showing bullish divergence with room to run before overbought.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — neckline breakout: A daily close above the 200 MA on the 4-hour chart confirms the double bottom, opening the door to $4,700 first, then $4,820 from the measured move, and $4,890 ahead of the 5K handle. Invalidation below $4,500.
Bearish — third rejection: A failure at the 200 MA and a loss of $4,590 reasserts the move toward $4,500. A break with conviction opens the golden pocket at $4,400, while another bounce there could form a triple bottom and reset the structure.
Does the third test of the 200 MA finally break the neckline and run to $4,820, or does the dollar find a floor and send gold back to the golden pocket?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Long
Bitcoin stuck at fresh 2026 highs above $80K — Is bottom in?Bitcoin pushed above $80,500 to fresh 2026 highs while the Dow fell 557 points on UAE-Iran missile escalation, with $2.44B in April ETF inflows fuelling the divergence. This video maps the wave 3 flip level, the 200 SMA test, and the leading diagonal that could open the door to 100K and beyond.
Key topics covered
- Bitcoin-equity decoupling : Risk-off across stocks on UAE missile interception and oil at $114, but Bitcoin is holding gains on $2.44B April ETF inflows, the strongest month since October.
- $80,500 wave 3 flip : The bottom of wave 3 from the October decline, with the 200 SMA at $83,500 and the 38.2% Fib at $85,400 as the next confluences before the 50% Fib at $93,200 flips sentiment.
- Leading diagonal setup : The recovery off $60,100 might be a leading diagonal, with extended wave 3 targets at the 161.8% Fib at $96,000 and the 261.8% Fib at $105,900 if the bottom is in.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — wave 3 extension : A daily close above $80,500 for three consecutive days confirms the breakout, opening a setup towards $85,400, $93,200 and beyond. Invalidation tiers at $78,000, $75,000 and $73,000, with the channel base at $70K as structural support.
Bearish — corrective unwind : A rejection at $80,500 and a loss of $76K, then $73,800, opens the door towards $70K, which reasserts the corrective interpretation, and the move can extend.
Is the wave 3 flip the start of a leading diagonal towards 100K, or does $80,500 hold as resistance and send Bitcoin back to $70,000?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Long
Nasdaq triple divergence! Resolve or extension to 28K?Nasdaq hit a record high at 27,500, then reversed completely on a hawkish FOMC, with mixed Big Tech earnings after hours setting up a critical open today. This video maps the rare triple divergence on the chart, the split earnings reactions, and the levels that decide whether 28K is next or 26,250 comes back into play.
Key topics covered
- Hawkish FOMC reset : The Fed held rates with an 8-4 split, the most dissents since 1992, with CME FedWatch now pricing no chance of a December cut and ~20% chance of a January 2027 hike.
- Split earnings reactions : Alphabet and Amazon delivered, but Microsoft and Meta sold off after hours on rising capex, with Wall Street rewarding AI revenue and punishing rising capex.
- Triple divergence at 27,500 : Price completed an impulsive wave with a rare triple divergence on RSI, with momentum resetting at the 50 line, the same level where a directional decision is forced.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — extended wave continuation: If the open absorbs the mixed earnings and price breaks 27,500 with momentum, an extended wave opens toward 28K, then 28,900 based on the Fibo expansion. This setup gets invalidated on a daily close below 27K.
Bearish — divergence resolves : If Microsoft and Meta weakness drags the open lower and 27,500 holds as the top, 26,250 comes into play, the prior record peak that aligns with the 23.6% Fib. Below that, the 38.2% Fib and the 61.8% Fib open up, but the close needs to confirm.
Does today's open extend the 20% one-month rally, or does the triple divergence finally do its job?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Short
GBP/USD in broadening pattern ahead of BOE vote count!GBP/USD has pulled back from a double top at 1.3600 to 1.3447, forming a broadening pattern after a 5-wave impulse from 1.3158. Tomorrow's BOE decision, alongside today's FOMC, are the catalysts that decide whether this is a base or the start of a deeper correction.
Key topics covered
- BOE vote count: The BOE is expected to hold, but the split between hawks, doves, and those voting to cut will determine how markets price the rate outlook. A hawkish skew could support sterling, while a dovish one could price out the expected pre-December hike.
- Broadening pattern : Price has corrected from 1.3600 into a broadening structure, with a false breakdown at 1.3430 holding twice, suggesting a potential base, but the pattern can continue to expand before resolving.
- 23.6% Fib cluster at 1.3500 : Price is testing this level from below after the false break, with RSI mid-range and room in either direction, making the BOE outcome the trigger.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — hawkish BOE : If 2-3 MPC members vote for a hike, the false breakdown at 1.3430 could hold and a bullish opportunity might open towards 1.3550 and the 1.3600 double top. A break above 1.3600 could open the door to a double top breakout setup.
Bearish — dovish BOE : If no hawks emerge and cuts are on the table, the broadening pattern could extend lower towards the 38.2% Fib at 1.3430, then the 50% Fib at 1.3380 and 61.8% Fib at 1.3330.
Is the false breakdown at 1.3430 the base that launches a retest of 1.3600, or does a dovish BOE open the door to a deeper Fibonacci correction?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
EUR/USD drops to 1.1670 — wave 4 base or start of bigger unwind?EUR/USD pulled back from 1.1850 to the 38.2% Fib at 1.1670, triggered by Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf resigning, dollar strength on oil at $103, and some of Eurozone PMIs sliding into contraction. This video maps the two structural scenarios and why 1.1640 is the line that decides both.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical dollar bid : Ghalibaf's resignation, Israel's defence minister warning of resumed operations, and Trump's Navy order pushed oil to $103 and lifted the dollar.
- Eurozone PMIs : The EZ composite fell to 48.6 and services to 47.4, with France at 47.6 but price passthrough contained. The ECB is still expected to hold at 2% for a 7th consecutive meeting on April 30.
- 38.2% Fib cluster at 1.1670 : The pullback lands where a wave 4 correction should, with the 100% Fib extension and 38.2% Fib confluencing in this zone. The move to 1.1850 extending beyond the 161.8% Fib supports the impulsive structure.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — wave 5 continuation : If 1.1670 holds, a bullish setup opens towards 1.1850, then the wave 5 target at 1.1940. Stop below 1.1640, with the room to the target making this a well-structured sccenario.
Bearish — corrective ABC unwind : If 1.1640 gives way on a daily close, the entire rally from 1.1410 becomes an ABC correction. Watch 1.1550 as the next support, as it could be wave 1, with 1.1410 back in play below that.
Is 1.1670 the wave 4 floor that launches the next leg to 1.1940, or does the dollar stay in control and unwind the whole move?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Bitcoin up 2% but is the $80,500 double top the real test?Bitcoin has recovered from a low of $60,125 to retest $74,500 as support, fuelled by ceasefire news that flipped risk sentiment and triggered $228 million in ETF inflows in a single session.
This video maps the two structural scenarios in play and the key levels that decide which one wins.
Key topics covered
- Ceasefire catalyst : The Middle East ceasefire flipped risk sentiment, squeezed short positions and drove the best monthly ETF inflow total since October at $1.86B.
- Corrective vs impulsive recovery : The move off $60,125 has looked corrective in structure, leaving open whether the bottom is in or a continuation lower follows.
- $80,500 double top : Price is forming a potential double top at resistance, with the 38.2% Fibo retracement and a Fibo extension confluence at $85,390 as the next resistance above it.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — continuation : If $74,500 holds and price closes above $80,500, a bullish setup opens toward the $85,390 confluence zone. A break and hold there brings the 50% Fib at $93,200 into view, the level where sentiment fully flips.
Bearish — false break : If $80,500 proves to be a double top and the price loses $74,500, the corrective structure reasserts itself. Watch $70,500 as the first level, with $65,000 as the medium-term target.
Is $80,500 the launchpad or the ceiling, and does the structure confirm a bottom at $60,125? Let us know in the comments!
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long
Gold drops 1% on US-Iran escalation - $5K setup still intact?Gold slid 1% on Monday after Strait of Hormuz escalations sent oil 5–6% higher, reigniting inflation fears and lifting the dollar. This video maps the key Fibonacci levels defining the next move and the Hormuz ceasefire deadline as the catalyst to watch.
Key topics covered
- Hormuz escalation: The US seized an Iranian vessel, Iran reasserted control of the strait, and oil jumped 5-6%, pressuring gold through the inflation and rates channel.
- Ceasefire deadline: Wednesday's deadline on the Hormuz ceasefire is the immediate macro trigger, extension or breakdown determines which technical scenario activates.
- 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,600: Price is retesting this level as support after defending every retracement on the recovery leg from $4,100, a level that has attracted buyers.
Scenarios & trade plan
Bullish — ceasefire holds: If tensions ease and oil gives back gains, the $4,600 support holds and an opportunity emerges toward the golden pocket at $4,910 and then the $5K handle.
Bearish — escalation continues: If Iran closes the strait and rate hike expectations start to build again, watch the 38.2% Fibo at $4,600, which held twice in early April, as the next support. Below that, $4,350 is the medium-term structural level where the recovery leg comes into question.
Are you watching $4,760 hold as a springboard to $5,000, or waiting to see how Wednesday's ceasefire deadline plays out first?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
WTI capped below $100: Short the bounce or wait for retest?WTI Crude Oil remains capped below the $100 handle. Even after the recent bounce we highlighted in our weekly analysis, the market remains hesitant as the geopolitical risk premium fades. With a 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire in effect and Trump signalling that the Iran war should end soon, we break down why rallies remain suspect and map out downside levels to watch.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical De-escalation : Trump has stated the Iran war should end soon, and weekend talks are possible. Combined with the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, markets are currently ignoring the IEA's warning about a two-year recovery for Middle East output, focusing on near-term de-escalation.
- Dead-Cat Bounce : We review the recent relief rally that perfectly stalled at the $98 level (between the 50% and 61.8% Fibos). The failure to reclaim the $100 psychological barrier confirmed this move was corrective, eventually leading to a fresh local low.
- RSI divergence & triangle pattern : A recent bullish RSI divergence has sparked a short-term recovery. We explain how this bounce could evolve into a triangle or pennant pattern. If price holds above $89, we could see a retest of the upper trendline, but the broader structure remains vulnerable.
WTI scenarios & trade plan
Bearish : The cleaner setup currently remains on the short side, as the recent downside move only hit the 61.8% extension, leaving the 100% extension untested.
Setup: Aggressive traders may look to fade the current bounce if prices reject the near-term ceiling. Conservative traders may wait for a confirmed break of the lower trendline.
Targets: The downside objective for this bearish continuation sits at $77.50.
Bullish (Triangle) : If the current RSI divergence provides enough momentum, WTI could continue its short-term corrective bounce.
Targets: A push higher would target the upper boundary of the developing triangle near $97 to $98.70 and potentially retest the $100 mark.
Note: Unless WTI breaks that upper trendline, all rallies are treated as corrective and remain highly suspect.
Are you shorting the current bounce or waiting for the top trendline? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Short
S&P500 at record highs on ceasefire hopes: Peak or push to 7150?The S&P 500 has officially broken the massive 7,000 psychological barrier, printing fresh all-time highs above 7,020. Fuelled by fading geopolitical risks and a major shift in Fed rate expectations, the index is now in pure price discovery mode. We break down the inverse head and shoulders launchpad and map out two distinct Elliott wave setups for the days ahead.
Key topics covered
- Macro green light: Geopolitical risks are fading fast with Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks and a potential Iran-Oman shipping deal. Plunging oil prices have crushed inflation fears, leading markets to price in unchanged Fed rates for the rest of the year.
- Earnings warning : Thursday brings a massive wave of corporate earnings (Netflix, PepsiCo, Charles Schwab) alongside US jobless claims and industrial production. Expect extreme volatility around these current highs.
- Inverse head launchpad: This historic rally didn't come out of nowhere. We track the massive inverse head and shoulders pattern (with the absolute head at 6,030) that broke out above 6,850 and never looked back.
S&P 500 scenarios & trade plan
-Bullish (Wave 5 push) : If the 7,020 breakout level flips to firm support, this final fifth wave still has juice.
Targets: Watch for an initial spike to the 61.8% Fib extension at 7,065 - 7,070, with longer-term major targets at 7,150 and 7,270.
Support: A shallow, healthy pullback should find buyers at the 38.2% Fib at 6,940.
-Bearish (Extended Wave 3 & deep reset) : If the current high is actually an extended Wave 3 hitting the 161.8% Fib resistance (7,030 - 7,050), expect a faster, sharper rejection.
Setup : A failure to hold 7,000 triggers a deeper Wave 4 correction.
Targets: Look for a flush down to the strong base between 6,845 and 6,900 before the market attempts a final push toward 7,150.
Watch the 7,020 pivot like a hawk today. Are you buying the breakout to 7,070 or waiting for a deep reset at 6,940? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Short
AUD/USD continues surging on risk-on revival ahead of China GDPAUD/USD is pushing higher ahead of Thursday's China data dump. With Middle East tensions easing and the US dollar softening, we break down the short-term setups and map out a medium-term reversal zone.
Key topics covered
China GDP: Markets expect Q1 growth to accelerate to 4.8% YOY. A strong print would support the Aussie.
Risk-on recovery : Easing geopolitical tensions have pushed the S&P 500 above pre-war levels, suggesting a broader recovery.
The 0.7250 cluster : Price is targeting a technical wall combining the 61.8% Fibonacci (0.7217), the upper channel resistance, and a broadening pattern top.
AUD/USD scenarios & trade plan
Bullish (Short-term) : If China data hits or beats 4.8%, traders may look for short-term longs targeting the 0.7188 peak and the 0.7217 - 0.7250 zone.
Bearish (Medium-term) : Watch for a spike into the 0.7200 - 0.7250 cluster. If we see wicky rejections and daily RSI divergence, the bias flips. Traders may fade the strength for a drop back to the mid-channel or the 0.6830 base.
Are you buying the Aussie into the China data or waiting to short the resistance? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. FTSE outperforms Europe, +10% since local low! Is 5th wave done?The UK 100 (FTSE) is outperforming its European counterparts by a wide margin, hovering just shy of the 11,000 record high. Despite the chaos of geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate hikes by the BOE, the index remains heavily supported. We break down the unique fundamentals driving this strength and dive into the Elliott Wave structure to predict the next major move.
Key topics covered
- Failing truce: The US-Iran ceasefire holds, but Israel's bombardment of Lebanon and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up oil and food prices. This is a "bad recipe" that could force the Bank of England to hike rates this year.
- Why FTSE outperforming: Despite the hawkish rate outlook, the FTSE is 10% above its recent low due to its exposure to energy giants (BP, Shell) benefiting from tight oil markets, and a strong pillar of support from utility stocks.
- EW & Fibos: The rally from the March 23rd bottom (9,680) appears to be a clear 5-wave impulsive structure. We are currently trying to determine if the 5th wave is already complete (which would trigger a major macro correction) or if we are simply in a Wave 4 correction before one final push higher.
UK100 scenarios & trade plan:
Bullish (The Wave 5 Push) : We are currently finding resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, but importantly, holding support above the 61.8% Fib.
Setup: As long as the index holds above the 61.8% Fib (and the psychological 10,300 level), the technicals point to further upside.
Targets: Bulls will aggressively target a reclaim of the high-momentum liquidity sweep at 10,800. Clearing that supply opens the door for new all-time highs.
Bearish (Wave 4 correction): Looking at the 4-hour channel, Wave 4 might not be finished.
Setup: If we lose the 61.8% Fib support, expect a deeper correction down to the middle of the channel, potentially testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Big picture: If the 5th wave has actually already topped out, we will see a much deeper macro correction before any new 5-wave impulse to the upside can begin.
Are you buying the dip for a Wave 5 push or waiting for a deeper correction? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Long
EUR/USD surges as US-Iran ceasefire triggers dollar selloffThe geopolitical landscape has shifted overnight. A 2-week US-Iran ceasefire has triggered a major US dollar selloff, sending EUR/USD surging over 1% to fresh 1-month highs. We break down the sudden downturn in global rate hike expectations and map out the breakout trade setups ahead of critical USS data this week.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical U-Turn : The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire and imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have crushed the recent energy-driven inflation panic, causing the US Dollar to dump.
- Falling rate hike expectations : With the energy crisis cooling, the probability of an April ECB rate hike has dropped alongside Fed rate cut expectations being re-priced in. We preview how this shifts the focus to tonight's FOMC minutes and the upcoming US PCE and CPI data.
- EUR/USD breakout : The euro has broken out of its recent flag pattern, pushing above the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1650. However, with the 4-hour RSI trades near 80, a near-term consolidation is likely.
EUR/USD scenarios & trade plan
Bullish (Retest setup) : A pullback and hold of the new 1.1650 support confirms the breakout and offers a swing-long opportunity.
Entry: Long on a successful retest of 1.1650.
Stop-Loss: Below the high-momentum breakout candle at 1.1591.
Targets: The heavy consolidation zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Bearish (False breakout): If the euro fails to hold support and loses the 1.1627 line in the sand, the bullish breakout is invalidated.
Entry: Short on a confirmed break below 1.1627.
Targets: An initial drop to 1.1591, exposing a deeper collapse back inside the flag pattern towards 1.1450 and the 1.1410 lows.
Are you buying the breakout retest or anticipating a false break? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Gold (XAU/USD): Trump’s Iran deadline (TACO?), FOMC mins & CPIGold is bracing for volatility once again. Tonight, President Trump’s hard deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires, just ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes and Friday's US CPI data. Will Trump strike, or is this yet another TACO trade? We map out the exact technical levels and trade setups for both scenarios.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical flashpoint : Trump is threatening strikes on Iranian infrastructure tonight. We analyse the market impact of an actual attack versus a "taco trade" (where he talks tough but ultimately backs down).
- Inflationary domino effect : Counterintuitively, an attack is bearish for gold. A strike would spike oil and the US dollar, adding to an energy shock that forces the Fed and other banks to keep interest rates higher for longer as well as hike.
- Gold technical analysis : On the 4-hour chart, gold appears to be trapped. It sits below the 50% Fibonacci retracement but still holding above the 38.2% support at $4,600. Price has broken below its recent bull flag and retested the lower boundary as resistance, though.
Gold scenarios & trade plan
- Bullish (Taco Trade) : If the deadline passes without escalation, oil and dollar will likely pull back, giving gold room to rally.
Entry: Long above $4,700
Stop-Loss: Below $4,500
Targets: The $4,800 peak (50% Fib), $4,920 (61.8% Fib), extending to $5,000 if FOMC minutes lean dovish.
- Bearish (Escalation) : If military strikes occur, the downside currently offers a more attractive risk-to-reward ratio.
Entry: Short on a confirmed break below $4,500
Targets: Initial drop to $4,350. If energy infrastructure is targeted, expect a full flush down to the March 23 low of $4,100.
Are you positioning for the bullish flag continuation or a bearish breakdown on the geopolitical news? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long
Nasdaq 100 (US100): 10% correction or bear trap?The tech-heavy Nasdaq has experienced extreme volatility this week. After a brutal multi-day selloff that plunged the index down to 23,500, officially dropping more than 10% from its recent highs into correction territory, buyers stepped in aggressively. Thursday saw a massive swing, pushing the index back up to close above the 24,000 handle.
Was this 10% plunge a false signal and a massive bear trap, or just a dead cat bounce before we head lower? We break down the crucial "Three-Day Rule" for confirming breakdowns and map out the key levels to watch as we head into a major holiday weekend.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical relief rally: What sparked Thursday's massive reversal? We discuss the slight easing of geopolitical tensions, including rising hopes that commercial traffic may soon be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced it is drafting a maritime transit protocol with Oman.
- "Three-Day rule" & false breakdown: We look closely at the official 10% correction threshold near 23,650. While the Nasdaq traded below this level, it only managed two daily closes below it, failing to meet the three consecutive closes typically required to technically confirm a structural breakdown. This suggests the recent dip might be a false break.
- Holiday Liquidity Warning: With London and European markets closed for the Easter holidays (Good Friday and Easter Monday), institutional volume and liquidity will be exceptionally low. We explain why traders need to stay defensive through Friday's NFP data release and wait for the true market reaction when full volume returns on Tuesday.
- Double Top neckline : We analyse the daily chart's massive double top pattern. The battleground is the support zone between the 23,800 neckline and the 23,650 correction limit.
Nasdaq 100 scenarios & trade plan:
- Bullish (Bear Trap recovery): If this bounce gains traction when institutions return on Tuesday, it completely invalidates the double top and the "official" correction. The immediate upside target is the short-term peak at 24,200. A break above that clears the path to the massive liquidity pool resting at the recent highs near 24,810.
- Bearish (cconfirmed breakdown): If Tuesday brings renewed selling pressure and we officially break and hold below the 23,650 level (confirming the breakdown), the floor opens up. The first major structural support sits at 22,800, followed by 22,650. However, if the double top measured move plays out fully, the downside target points to a much deeper drop toward 21,390.
Are you buying the dip or preparing for the measured move down to 21,390? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
WTI oil jumps 8% as Trump reverses ceasefire hopes - $112 next?WTI crude oil is subject to serious whiplash again this week. After an initial drop, driven by President Trump’s surprisingly conciliatory remarks regarding Iran's new leadership, the market reversed. With Trump returning to an aggressive stance and the UAE discussing military action, oil has surged 8% in early Thursday trading.
While we recently discussed why Brent might be the preferred asset for trading this crisis, WTI is following a very similar technical trajectory. We break down the critical Fibonacci range containing this volatility and map out the targets if the geopolitical pressure forces a breakout.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical whiplash : Oil prices dumped to the 50% Fibonacci support near $93.00 after Trump suggested Iran's new regime was "less radicalised", sparking ceasefire hopes.
- Hawkish Reversal : We explain why ceasefire hopes were crushed just a day later. Trump stated the US will "continue attacks" and "finish the job," while the Stagato Energy tanker was hit by Iranian missiles, confirming the fundamental upside pressure remains fully intact.
- Fibonacci battleground : WTI is currently trapped in a massive technical range. We analyse the bounce off the 50% Fibonacci support ($93.00) and the ongoing battle at the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance ($102.00), which aligns closely with the 100% measured move of the previous double bottom pattern.
- RSI divergence : We look at the daily RSI momentum. We note the recent short-term hidden bearish divergence that triggered the drop to $93.00, and discuss why the underlying momentum remains strong enough to potentially push the RSI back into overbought territory above 70.
WTI scenarios & trade plan
Bullish ($102 breakout) : The key is the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $102.00. If WTI can close three sessions above this level and clear the $103.40 peak, the door flies open. The next immediate target is the 161.8% extension at $112.00, followed by the 200% extension at $120.00.
Bullish (buy the dip : Instead of buying the breakout, traders can look for a pullback to retest the 100% measured move support near $98.00 - $99.00. This offers a stronger risk-to-reward entry, allowing a stop below the recent $93.00 swing low, with initial targets at $102.00 and trailing stops toward $112.00.
Bearish (Short the range) : Traders could attempt to short a rejection or double top near the $102.00 - $103.00 resistance, targeting a return to the $93.00 support. However, given the extreme geopolitical risk and ongoing tanker attacks, stepping in front of this bullish fundamental trend is not ideal unless confirmed by clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart.
Are you trading the breakout or waiting for a pullback to the $98 support? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long
US Dollar tests 100 breakout as divergence warns of DXY pullbackThe US Dollar Index is on track for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025, rising nearly 3% in March as safe-haven demand surged during the Middle East conflict. But despite that strength, DXY appears to be struggling to establish itself above the key 100 psychological level, with traders watching whether the breakout can hold until Wednesday’s close.
Geopolitical headlines remain the main macro driver. President Donald Trump said the US is in serious talks aimed at ending the conflict with Iran, but he also renewed threats against Iran’s energy infrastructure, while thousands of US Army paratroopers have arrived in the region as the military buildup intensifies. That keeps the broader dollar narrative supportive, but technically, fading momentum could be an early signal of locking in profits.
Key topics covered
- March safe-haven rally : DXY is closing Q1 with a powerful monthly gain after January weakened and February was mixed (inside bar), confirming the dollar's role as one of the market’s preferred havens during geopolitical stress.
- The 100 breakout test : The key question now is whether the index can deliver another daily close above 100 and confirm that this is a genuine breakout rather than a temporary push above resistance.
- RSI divergence warning : On the daily chart, price has pushed higher while momentum has not kept pace, creating a clear bearish divergence. That does not imply a macro reversal, but it does increase the probability of a technical correction from current levels.
- Broadening pattern resistance : The chart still resembles a broadening formation, and current price action is approaching a major resistance cluster between the 38.2% and 61.80% extension zone, roughly 100.90 to 101.10.
DXY scenarios & trade plan:
- Bearish technical correction : This is the short-term setup. As long as DXY trades into the 100.70 to 100.90 area, and especially if it stretches toward 101.00 to 101.10, that zone can be treated as resistance for a tactical short trade rather than a macro bearish call. A stop can sit just above 101.10/101.20, with downside targets at 100.00 first, then the 99.70 area, followed by 98.90 and potentially 98.50 if profit-taking accelerates.
- Bullish continuation : If the index breaks cleanly above 100.90 and then 101.10, the bearish divergence starts to weaken and the breakout gains more credibility. In that case, the move higher is no longer a false break above the November high, and the door opens to a broader continuation instead of the pullback scenario.
So the bias here is downside for a technical correction, not because the dollar's macro safe-haven story is broken, but because the chart is stretched into resistance while momentum is fading. The plan is simple: watch the 100.70–101.10 resistance zone, respect 100 as the first profit area on shorts, and stay flexible if headlines on Iran suddenly shift sentiment again.
Are you fading the breakout above 100 or waiting for confirmation above 101 first?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Short
USD/CAD nears ceiling as CAD fails to rally | Sell the rally?There is an anomaly playing out in the currency markets right now. With Brent oil pushing past $100 a barrel amid the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the oil-correlated Canadian dollar should be surging, but instead, USD/CAD is trading higher, bouncing from recent lows and approaching the 1.4000 handle.
Why is the Loonie failing to catch a bid? It comes down to interest rate differentials and safe-haven flows into the US dollar. We break down the macro divergence driving this pair and the critical technical levels capping the current rally.
Key topics covered
- Oil correlation breakdown: The Canadian dollar is failing to benefit from the massive spike in oil prices as the safe-haven dominance of the US dollar is overriding Canada's traditional tailwinds.
- Interest rate premium: This is the core driver behind the USD/CAD rally. With the Fed sitting at 3.75% and the BOC holding at 2.25%, the premium makes the US dollar more attractive to carry traders. Furthermore, Canada's soft 1.8% inflation print lowers the odds of a BOC rate hike.
- Elliott Wave structure : Following the flag breakout, the pair completed a 5-wave impulsive leg down to the 1.3485 low. We discuss whether the current bounce is just a short-term correction or the start of a broader macro reversal.
- Overbought RSI resistance : The daily RSI is near the 70 overbought level, a territory it rarely holds without a fundamental disturbance. We identify the key resistance clusters where this rally is likely to exhaust.
USD/CAD scenarios & trade plan:
- Bearish (Sell the rally) : Because momentum is stretched, the current bounce offers a prime short-term selling opportunity. The immediate resistance cluster sits at 1.3886 (the October swing low), with the line in the sand at the 1.3930 double top. A rejection here opens a downside target of 1.3750, offering a favourable risk-to-reward ratio for shorts with tight stops above the highs. If Middle East tensions de-escalate, a deeper flush could retest the 1.3485 lows.
- Bullish (Macro breakout) : For the trend to officially reverse to the upside, buyers must secure a few daily closes above the 1.3930 resistance. Breaking this level invalidates the bearish structure and opens the door for a macro run toward the 50% Fibonacci level near 1.4150.
Are you selling the USD/CAD rally or focusing on a breakout above 1.3930? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Gold tumbles 9% as liquidity concerns overshadow safetyGold is heading for its ninth consecutive day of declines, plunging nearly 9% on Monday to briefly flush down to $4,100. Despite a massive weekend escalation in the Middle East, with preparations for potential ground troops and Iran threatening Gulf water systems in retaliation for Trump's threats, gold is ignoring its traditional safe-haven status.
It appears that liquidity is currently more valuable than safety. With hawkish central banks forcing a repricing of interest rates, large institutions might be liquidating profitable gold positions to raise cash fast. We break down the critical Fibonacci levels that determine whether this is the bottom of a deep correction or the start of a macro impulse.
Key topics covered
- The Dash for Cash: Gold is crashing despite extreme geopolitical risks. We explain the "liquidity over safety" dynamic, where hawkish central banks and potential margin calls in equities are forcing institutions to liquidate gold to raise capital.
- The Fed Hike Threat: Following last week's central bank "super week," the narrative has shifted. Markets are now pricing in a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this year, stripping gold of its core fundamental tailwind.
- The 100% Fibonacci Extension: We analyse the structural decline from the $5,600 record high. The 100% measured move extension of the initial macro drop points exactly to the $4,200 level. While the price temporarily flushed to $4,100 (well below the October 2024 breakout level of $4,380), buyers are now attempting to defend this zone.
XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan:
Bearish (Impulsive Breakdown): The macro situation remains treacherous for gold. If the price rallies but fails to reclaim the $4,400 resistance (forming a lower high), it signals that this decline is an impulse wave rather than a simple ABC correction. This offers a short-selling opportunity targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension all the way down at $3,470 - $3,500.
Bullish (ABC Correction Bounce): If this entire drop is just a deep ABC correction, the $4,100 flush may have been the bottom. Risk-on traders can attempt to play the technical bounce, placing a tight stop below the recent $4,100 low. The immediate upside hurdle is reclaiming $4,400, with the ultimate recovery target sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, near $4,670.
Are you buying the panic flush or shorting the bounce? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long
Forget WTI! Hormuz shock opens up $150 Brent, per JPMOil markets are seeing unprecedented divergence, with the spread between Brent and WTI at an 11-year high of roughly $18. While WTI tracks relatively stable US shale supply, Brent is highly exposed to the escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
With physical market benchmarks like Oman and Dubai futures skyrocketing to $136–$150, Brent is pulled higher, with JP Morgan suggesting Brent will catch up. We break down why Brent is currently the preferred asset for long oil exposure and the critical Fibonacci levels that determine the next major move.
Key topics covered
- Brent vs. WTI spread : The escalation of attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure (including Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars and Iran's retaliation against Qatari LNG) is stressing seaborne crude, causing Brent to outperform WTI.
- Geopolitical whiplash : Intraday pullbacks, including the US Treasury considering the removal of sanctions on 140 million barrels of stranded Iranian oil and Israeli PM Netanyahu hinting the war could end faster than expected, did not take Brent in the red.
- Macro Double Bottom : We chart Brent's massive structural breakout from the $58.00 base. After clearing the $77.00 neckline, the 100% measured move projection at $97.00 was achieved and is now acting as a critical support floor.
- Overbought RSI : Overbought momentum indicators like the daily RSI could be ineffective and should be taken with a grain of salt during historic, headline-driven supply shocks.
Brent scenarios & trade plan:
- Bullish (Trend continuation) : The technical structure is bullish as long as prices remain above the $97 (measured move) to $100 support zone. The immediate hurdle is the 61.8% Fibonacci at $105. A clean break here targets the recent double top at $109 (161.8% Fib), with the next levels at the 200% extension of $117 and the 2022 high of $135, and the macro objective at $150.
- Bearish (Headline fade) : If sudden de-escalation headlines hit the wires, we could see a sharp pullback from the $105 or $109 resistance levels. However, bears are facing an uphill challenge. Any short positions would likely target the $97 - $100 support cluster. The bullish macro setup is only invalidated if Brent breaks and closes firmly below $97.
Are you trading the WTI-Brent spread or riding the breakout to $117? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long
EUR/USD in wave 4 ahead of ECB rate decision: Selling rallies?EUR/USD remains bearish in a descending channel ahead of today's ECB meeting as the US dollar continues to flex its safe-haven dominance amid escalation in the Middle East. With US PPI data coming in hotter than expected and the Fed's dot plot showing a hawkish shift toward fewer rate cuts, the pressure on the euro remains heavy.
All eyes are now on ECB President Christine Lagarde. With Eurozone services inflation running hot and oil prices surging, markets are actually pricing in rate hikes. But with European growth still dismal, any hawkish tilt from the ECB today runs the risk of triggering stagflation, which would be priced in following the immediate reaction post-ECB.
Key topics covered
- Fed's hawkish shift : Yesterday's hot US PPI data (3.4% vs 3.0% expected) and the Fed's dot plot are supporting dollar strength. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged a shift among policymakers toward fewer rate cuts due to energy-driven inflation risks.
- ECB stagflation : The ECB is expected to hold rates today, but markets are already pricing in one and a half rate hikes by year-end. We explain why hiking rates into a stagnant, no-growth European economy reliant on imported energy is a recipe for stagflation, which caps the euro's upside.
- Elliott Wave structure : We break down the macro technicals following the failed breakout at the 1.2082 peak. Having broken below the 100% Fibonacci support at 1.1597, the pair is currently tracking a Wave 4 correction within a descending channel.
- Guideline of Alternation : The sharp Wave 2 correction (which hit the 50% retracement) suggests the upcoming Wave 4 pullback might be a choppy, sideways consolidation. We outline how to trade this potential range.
EUR/USD scenarios & Trade Plan:
- Bearish (Trend continuation) : As long as prices remain below the 1.1597 resistance, the technical bias is to "sell the rallies." If the pair completes its Wave 4 consolidation, the next leg lower (Wave 5) focuses on the Fibonacci cluster at 1.1393 (aligning with the 161.8% extension and the previous Wave E lows). Below that, the floor opens toward 1.1267.
- Bullish (Short-term ECB spike) : If President Lagarde delivers a hawkish tilt, expect a short-term spike in the euro. However, due to the underlying stagflation risks, the spike might quickly fade. Buyers need to see a confirmed break and hold above the 1.1597 resistance to invalidate the bearish impulse and suggest a return to higher territory.
Are you shorting the euro or awaiting a post-ECB rally? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Iran haven flows favour USD as Gold breaks $5k but can it last?Gold is under pressure early Monday, breaking below the $5,000 psychological handle. This drop might seem strange given the weekend's geopolitical escalations, including the US military striking Iran's primary oil export hub at Kharg Island.
However, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalating and WTI now following Brent near $100 a barrel, global inflation fears are forcing markets to price out Federal Reserve rate cuts. Safe-haven capital is actively bypassing gold and flooding directly into the US dollar, creating a toxic short-term environment for the precious metal.
Key topics covered
- Kharg Island strike : Weekend attacks on Iran's critical oil infrastructure have sent crude prices upwards, cementing a "higher for longer" interest rate environment that favours the greenback over gold.
- The Strait of Hormuz standoff : The US is forming a naval escort coalition while Tehran attempts to weaponise the waterway by demanding passage be traded in Chinese yuan.
- Complex Gold correction : We break down the technical structure following the $5,230 lower high. The recent drop below $5k confirms a new low, suggesting this could be a complex correction leading to aa pennant or triangle.
- Fractal price action : Looking at historical price patterns, we use a previous fractal to reverse-engineer the current structure, projecting where this next leg lower might ultimately find support.
XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan:
- Bearish (Short-term continuation) : With a new low in, the immediate focus is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,860 (our Wave E invalidation level). If selling pressure continues, we could see a flush down to $4,680. A daily close below the $5,000 handle tonight (confirmed after 3 sessions) is critical for signalling downside momentum.
- Bullish (Macro Defence) : For the broader bullish macro triangle to remain valid, buyers must defend $4,860. If it holds, the drop from the $5,600 peak can still be viewed as a deep macro correction. However, if buyers fail and we lose $4,680, the risk of a structural collapse back down toward $4,400 increases.
Are you buying the dip below $5,000 or positioning for a deeper flush? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Short
EUR/GBP stagflation risks as Head & Shoulders unfoldsThe Euro is under fundamental and technical pressure against the British Pound. The Middle East energy shock has shifted central bank expectations, with markets pricing in rate hikes by the ECB amid a stagnant, no-growth European economy. This dynamic has raised the threat of stagflation more so than in the UK, weighing on the single currency.
While the Bank of England faces similar inflation pressures, the UK is fundamentally less sensitive to the energy shock than the Eurozone, though its economy is also grappling with high unemployment. The rate-hike divergence (nearly 2 hikes for the ECB vs 0.5 for the BOE), however, is supported by a bearish picture on the charts, further accentuated by a textbook Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Key topics covered
- European stagflation risk : The surge in oil prices is a massive problem for the Euro. Money markets are now pricing in an ECB rate hike for July (and potentially another by December), but hiking rates in a stagnant economy heavily reliant on imported energy is a perfect recipe for stagflation.
- US trade threats : Adding to the Euro's bearish macro backdrop, the US has initiated a Section 301 trade investigation into the EU, raising the looming threat of new tariffs.
- Head & Shoulders neckline : We analyse the daily Head and Shoulders pattern. The trendline support and pattern neckline align at the 0.8620 area (which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
- Measured Move target : If the 0.8620 neckline breaks, we break down the macro target. The full measured move projection points all the way down to 0.8360, aligning with the major May 2025 swing lows.
EUR/GBP scenarios & trade plan:
- Bullish (Short-term bounce) : With short-term divergence forming on the 4-hour chart, traders may trade the bounce off the neckline support. Entry here requires a tight stop just below the previous low, with an initial take-profit at the 0.8643 resistance. Traders can then trim profits and leave a runner toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
- Bearish (Macro swing trade) : As long as any bounce stays below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8700, this remains a classic "sell the rallies" setup. A rejection near the 38.2% Fib, or a confirmed breakdown below the 0.8612 - 0.8620 neckline, opens the floodgates. Immediate targets include the 61.8% Fibonacci "golden pocket," with the ultimate macro target sitting at the 0.8360 measured move projection.
Are you trading the short-term bounce or positioning for the macro breakdown? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. WTI Crude spike: Iran mines vs IEA/SPR releases - Can 50% break?WTI Crude Oil is back in the green for a third consecutive session, rebounding after an unprecedented 33% intraday crash from the $113.00 highs. The oil market is currently a battleground between massive geopolitical supply shocks and coordinated global efforts to flood the market with emergency reserves.
With volatility remaining high, we break down the critical 50% Fibonacci level that will dictate whether oil returns to triple digits or continues its consolidation.
Key topics covered
- The supply shock: Escalating tensions, including the US targeting Iranian banks, attacks on Gulf tankers, and reports of Iran laying underwater mines in the Strait of Hormuz, are keeping a massive risk premium in the market.
- SPR drawdown vs. global demand : The IEA has announced a record 400-million-barrel release, bolstered by President Trump authorising a 172-million-barrel drawdown from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next four months. However, with the Strait of Hormuz responsible for 20 million barrels of daily transit, this release only covers a fraction of the potential disruption.
- The Macro breakout : We review the massive double (or triple) bottom breakout from the $55.00 level. WTI easily cleared the $77.00 neckline, achieving its 100% measured move target at $99.50 and spiking all the way to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $113.00 before dumping.
- Momentum vs. structure : The daily RSI is hovering near 80. While heavily overbought, momentum can stay overbought in headline-driven markets. As long as price remains above the $77.00 neckline, the broader technical structure remains biased to the upside.
WTI scenarios & trade plan:
- Bearish (Short-term rejection): The pivot is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $93.25. If WTI fails to break and hold it, the longer-term bias stays to the downside. Risk-takers fading the $93.25 resistance can expect a pullback to the 38.2% Fib at $84.20, and potentially a retest of the $76.50 - $77.00 neckline (likely driven by headlines of a truce or de-escalation).
- Bullish (Return to triple digits): If buyers can break and hold above $93.25, it signals a sustained continuation. The immediate objective is filling Monday’s gap at the $99.50 open, with further upside potential toward the 61.8% Fib and a full duplication of the measured move pointing to $120.00.
Are you shorting the 50% Fib or buying the dip for a run to $100? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
