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Gold (XAU/USD) | 4H chart Technical Analysis Gold’s rebound stalled at 3,970.29, leaving a lower high within the four-hour downtrend. The latest price is 3,914.24, with sellers having reversed much of Monday’s recovery. Support spans 3,870.09–3,891.19, covering the recent trough and repeated reaction lows. Resistance lies at 3,950.66–3,970.29, ahead of the broken 4,000 threshold. RSI has recovered from 19.51 to 38.35 but remains below 50, suggesting that oversold conditions have eased without confirming a reversal. The

by ThinkMarkets

USD/JPY is mid-range after 33 sessions: which edge gives way?The pair has spent 33 sessions inside one range, between the 25 September high at 159.028 and the 23 October low at 156.065. That range is 296.3 points wide, roughly seven and a half times the average four-hour move, and at 157.614 price is 6.8 points above its exact middle. There is no point saying price has never closed outside those two numbers, because they are the highest high and the lowest low of the period, so no close could have. What matters is how long the range has lasted, how wide i

by ThinkMarkets

NAS100 stalls below its 16 October peak: a double top?The index spent five sessions climbing off its 23 October low and gave a large part of it back in four hours. The rebound stopped at 30,041.55, which is 9.3 points under the 16 October high at 30,050.85, and the same bar shows 29,622.20, some 419.35 points below its own high and 79.94 above its low, 16% up from the bottom of a 499.29 point range. Two peaks at effectively the same price with a trough between them is the shape of a double top. The double top and what completes it Peak one is 3

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD's triangle meets its base - does 1.1180 hold?The line that has capped the euro since September is still capping it. This morning’s high stopped 8.7 pips short, the nearest approach since 22 October, and the selling that followed has carried the pair down to the shelf that has held three times this month. That shelf is being tested as this candle trades. EUR/USD is 1.11810 with the 13:00 UTC candle open. It has traded as low as 1.11731, which is the first print below that shelf since the shelf formed, and it has already come back inside it.

by ThinkMarkets

USD/JPY coils into a triangle - which way does it break?The head and shoulders that was forming here two weeks ago never completed, and why it failed is worth more than the pattern was. The right shoulder kept growing until it was almost as tall as the head. What is left behind it is a triangle with about four sessions of room in it. USD/JPY is 158.099 with the 13:00 UTC candle barely open. The pair has spent three weeks inside 156.95 to 158.94, and the last four sessions inside 91 points of that, which is under half the range. The pattern, piece b

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD is pinned by a falling line - what breaks it?There is a falling wedge on this chart, and its upper line turned price away for the third time on Friday. It is not a pattern you can act on yet, because the two lines are still 163 pips apart and they are closing at under 1 pip a bar. EUR/USD is 1.12068 with the 09:00 UTC candle barely open. The pair has spent the last three sessions between 1.11827 and 1.12695, which is where a 156.6 pip bounce off the 14 October low ran out of road. The pattern, piece by piece ● Upper line: drawn throug

by ThinkMarkets

GBP/JPY clears a 16 session ceiling: is 211.27 next?Sterling has spent the best part of three weeks bumping its head on the same ceiling against the yen. This morning it went through. The level to know is 210.31. Five attempts between 24 September and 14 October stalled inside a narrow band running from 209.97 up to there, 34 pips wide and no more. The 05:00 UTC candle closed at 210.581, clear of the lot, and price has pushed on to 210.799 since. It took the 200 period moving average with it at 210.231, an average that had capped every four hour

by ThinkMarkets

Brent tests near-equal highs - is a double top forming?Brent has gained a net 1,136 points from the 22 September low at 94.151 to the 12 October high at 105.510, though not in a straight line: a 785 point pullback into 30 September sits inside it. Then on Monday it stopped at 105.510, and this morning it stopped again at 105.441. Sixty-nine points apart, thirty-two hours apart. Price is 104.897 with the 08:00 UTC candle open, up 0.76% on the session. The 105.059 reading is that candle's high, not the day's. The pattern: a potential double top ●

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD tests the same floor four times - what breaks next?The euro has stopped falling and started grinding. Four times in seven sessions it has been bought in the same thirteen pip band, and each rally since has been smaller than the last. That shape has a name, though not a textbook one. EUR/USD is 1.11824 on the ThinkMarkets feed with the 09:00 UTC candle still open, and today's low at 1.11725 is the fourth test of the floor so far, on a candle that has not closed. The pattern: a descending triangle ● The base: 1.11601 on 5 October, 1.11644 on 7

by ThinkMarkets

Silver just bounced 210 points - what is waiting above?Silver fell 904 points in seventeen days, then put 210 of them back in three candles. The interesting part is not the bounce, it is the precision of where it stopped. Price is 60.331. This morning's high at 60.600 came within three points of the 23.6% retracement of the whole decline at 60.630, and the 50 EMA sits at 60.832 just above. The pattern on the chart Since 28 September silver has been developing a descending right-angled broadening structure: a flat top with falling lows. The top i

by ThinkMarkets

USD/JPY builds a right shoulder - what breaks the neck?There is a head and shoulders forming on this chart, and the right shoulder is being built this week. It is not complete, and the level that would complete it is almost 200 points below where price is trading. USD/JPY is 158.206 with the 09:00 UTC candle barely open. The pair has spent six sessions between 156.94 and 158.50 after failing twice near 158.50. The pattern, piece by piece ● Left shoulder: 18 September, high 158.046. ● Head: 24 September, high 159.028, which is still the highest p

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD broke a 3-month floor - what does it project?The euro spent three months refusing to close below 1.13241. On 1 October it stopped refusing, and the arithmetic that follows a range break points a long way down. EUR/USD trades at 1.12630 on the ThinkMarkets feed, up 0.39% on the day after yesterday's 1.11601, the lowest print in the ten months of data supplied. The live daily candle has reached 1.12768. The range that broke From the 24 June low at 1.13241 to the 21 August high at 1.17110, the euro spent three months inside 387 pips. The

by ThinkMarkets

Ethereum coils into 85 points - what breaks first?Ethereum rallied about 450 points between 15 and 21 September. The nine days since have not been quiet, price has travelled 179.52 points from the high to the 24 September low, but each swing has been smaller than the last and the space left is now 85 points wide. Price is 2,734.73 on the ThinkMarkets feed, up 1.43% on the session, with the live candle reaching 2,735.70. The line that has capped every high since 21 September sits four dollars above that. The two lines that matter The upper b

by ThinkMarkets

Gold fell 134 points in a day - which level stops it?For two weeks gold refused to close below 4,235. This morning it went through it without pausing, and the next shelf on this chart is not where most people are looking. Price is 4,149.81 on the ThinkMarkets feed. Three completed four-hour candles stepped down, closing at 4,230.90, 4,194.83 and 4,144.34, and the live candle is trading a little above the last of them. From Friday's high at 4,275.10 to this morning's low at 4,140.74 the fall is 134.36 points, or 3.93 times the 34.19 average true ra

by ThinkMarkets

Brent breaks the line that capped it for a week Two weeks ago this chart had a ceiling at 96 that had held four times. It broke, ran ten dollars, and is now working its way back down through the same territory. Brent trades at 97.789 on the ThinkMarkets feed, up 1.20% on the session, having reached 98.023. The candle that opened at 12:00 UTC is trading above the descending line that has capped every high since 15 September, which sits at 96.255 at this bar, and above the tightest support cluster on the chart at 97.36 to 97.57. What happened

by ThinkMarkets

Gold gives back the 50% five days after taking it Gold reclaimed the 50% retracement on 17 September and closed above the descending boundary a day later. Today it is beneath both again. The candle that opened at 05:00 UTC took price to 4,291.71, inside the support zone mapped last week, and the live candle trades at 4,312.45. That is 15.37 below the 50% retracement at 4,327.82 and 20.55 below the descending boundary, which is worth 4,333.00 at this candle. On the ThinkMarkets feed the market is down 0.41% on the session. What last week's brea

by ThinkMarkets

Bitcoin clears September high intraday, close pending Bitcoin has spent three weeks failing at 82,257. Today it has traded through it, and the daily candle has not closed yet. The daily candle is up 5.27% at 85,352 on the ThinkMarkets feed, having reached 85,823.32. That takes price above the 3 September high at 82,256.96 and the 28 August high at 81,438.30 intraday, and it is the first trade above 85,000 since late January. The breakout is not confirmed until this candle closes. What the break actually cleared The 28 August and 3 September highs,

by ThinkMarkets

Gold pierced the 61.8% on the Fed move, then reclaimed it Yesterday gold fell 132 dollars in four hours. Today it has taken all of it back and more. The Federal Reserve raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% in a unanimous decision, said inflation remains elevated, and left the door open to more. The candle that opened at 17:00 UTC ran from 4,367.76 down to 4,235.21 and closed at 4,264.19. Since then the market has rallied 138.51 dollars to 4,373.72, and trades at 4,373.19 on the ThinkMarkets feed with the candle still open. Wha

by ThinkMarkets

USD/JPY failed at the 23.6% and closed back inside support The yen took 751 pips out of the dollar in four sessions. The bounce lasted one day, and today it lasted one candle. USD/JPY trades at 153.362 on the ThinkMarkets feed. The candle that opened at 09:00 UTC reached 154.473, gave back 106 of the 112 pips gained on Wednesday, and closed at 153.459, back inside the support band it had left. Where the bounce stopped Measured up from the 8 September low at 152.874, the 23.6% retracement of the decline from 160.387 sits at 154.647. Wednesday's high pri

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD clears the range and meets the August line Last week the euro could not hold a close above 1.16241. This week it has closed above it four times, and the sequence tells you more than the count. EUR/USD trades at 1.16456 on the ThinkMarkets feed, having cleared the range that contained it from 31 August through 8 September, reclaimed the 38.2% retracement, and moved above all four moving averages, which now sit beneath price as potential dynamic support. The reward for all that work is a meeting with the line that has capped every rally si

by ThinkMarkets

Gold ran out of room to wait - 39 points to decide Gold has spent the past several sessions compressing after a sharp rebound and reversal, and the compression is now the story. Since the 2 September low at 4,282.51 the highs have stepped down and the lows have stepped up, and the two lines that describe them are now 39 points apart. The average four-hour candle is 35, so the room left inside is about one candle's worth. Where the squeeze actually is The upper boundary sits at 4,428 and falls about 29 points a day. The lower one is at 4,389 an

by ThinkMarkets

Brent tests its six-week ceiling on fading momentum Brent has spent six weeks working towards one price. It printed 96.15 on 23 July, 96.03 on 2 September, 96.17 on 3 September and 96.32 this morning, four attempts inside a forty cent band, and it trades at 95.93 on the ThinkMarkets spot feed as this is written. Each attempt has arrived with less momentum than the one before, which is the question the week turns on. Key topics covered ● A four-attempt ceiling at 96: The band runs 95.95 to 96.35, about a third of the 1.15 ATR, so this is a pre

by ThinkMarkets

EUR/USD holds 1.15661 to the pip - reclaim or fade?EUR/USD recorded a low at 1.15661 on Wednesday, the same price as the floor of the range it has traded since 31 August, and has since rebounded to 1.16016 without a close below it. This analysis argues that the range is intact at both ends and that the rebound has run into the same descending structure that has capped every attempt since the August high. Key topics covered Both trigger levels from yesterday's map were respected: The bearish condition required a four-hour close below 1.15661

by ThinkMarkets

Gold: the 200 EMA held where payrolls should have broken it A jobs report three times consensus should have been enough to break gold's recovery. It very nearly was. Price fell from $4,479.39 to $4,378.16 in the release candle, closed it at $4,393.83 below the 38.2% retracement, then took the next candle down to $4,365.54, through the 200 EMA. And there the selling stopped. Gold is back at $4,417.14, above the retracement it had just lost. Key topics covered ● Payrolls beat by a wide margin: 162,000 jobs in August against a Reuters consensus of 56,00

by ThinkMarkets