EURUSD market trade cautiously ahead of the Fed The Federal Reserve decision is the main event today and is likely to dominate market direction. Before the decision, US August retail sales will be closely watched for signs of consumer strength, while the NAHB housing index and New York Fed services activity will provide further clues on the health of the US economy.
Import and export price data will also attract attention as markets assess inflation pressures. Stronger-than-expected US data could support Treasury yields and the dollar by reducing expectations for easier monetary policy.
The Fed decision will be the key catalyst. With the rate move largely anticipated, attention will focus on the accompanying statement, economic projections and the tone of the press conference. Any indication of a more restrictive policy stance could strengthen the dollar, while a more cautious outlook could trigger USD weakness.
UK inflation figures, including CPI, PPI and RPI, will drive sterling volatility. Japan’s trade balance and machinery orders may influence the yen, while Eurozone industrial production and ECB commentary will provide additional direction for EUR/USD.
The European Commission President’s State of the Union address could also generate some movement in the euro, particularly through comments on European economic policy, trade and geopolitical issues.
Conclusion: The market is likely to trade cautiously ahead of the Fed, with US retail sales and Treasury yields providing the main pre-Fed signals. After the decision, the dollar’s direction should depend primarily on the Fed’s guidance on future interest rates rather than the rate decision itself.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.1607
Resistance Level 2: 1.1650
Resistance Level 3: 1.1695
Support Level 1: 1.1500
Support Level 2: 1.1480
Support Level 3: 1.1450
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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Gold consolidation supported at 4,280 resistance Friday’s session is likely to be dominated by the US August CPI report, which will provide an important test of the inflation trend ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
US CPI: The market will focus on both headline and core inflation, particularly services and shelter. A softer-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations for lower US interest rates, potentially weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting equities and gold. A stronger CPI could have the opposite effect, pushing yields and the dollar higher and creating pressure on rate-sensitive equities.
University of Michigan survey: The preliminary September survey will provide an update on consumer confidence and, importantly, inflation expectations. A rise in longer-term inflation expectations could reduce the market’s confidence in further Fed easing.
US fiscal position: The federal budget balance is likely to attract attention from bond markets, particularly given elevated Treasury yields and concerns about the scale of US government borrowing.
UK GDP: July monthly GDP will provide an early indication of whether the UK economy is gaining momentum or continuing to stagnate. A stronger figure could support sterling, while a weak reading would reinforce expectations for further monetary easing from the BoE.
Japan PPI: Japan’s producer-price data will offer another indication of underlying inflation pressures and the potential path for Bank of Japan policy.
ECB: ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane is scheduled to speak. Markets will focus on any comments regarding inflation, growth and the ECB’s future rate path following its latest policy assessment.
Market conclusion: The US CPI is clearly the main event. A cooler inflation print would favour a weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and stronger risk appetite, while a hotter number could trigger a reversal in the recent rate-cut optimism. For equity indices, gold and FX, the initial reaction will likely depend heavily on the CPI surprise relative to expectations and how Treasury yields respond.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 4,533
Resistance Level 2: 4,622
Resistance Level 3: 4,700
Support Level 1: 4,280
Support Level 2: 4,211
Support Level 3: 4,153
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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EURUSD mildly bullish, ahead of ECB rate announcement Thursday’s trading session is likely to be dominated by the ECB rate decision, US PPI inflation data and the US 30-year Treasury auction. Markets remain sensitive to inflation and interest-rate expectations, particularly with elevated energy prices continuing to create pressure on global inflation.
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bp, but the decision itself is largely priced in. The main focus will be on the ECB’s forward guidance and whether policymakers indicate that further tightening may be required. A more hawkish message would support the euro, while a signal that the rate hike could be the final move would limit EUR upside.
In the US, August PPI will provide another indication of underlying inflation pressures. A stronger-than-expected reading could push Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations for tighter Fed policy, supporting the US dollar. A softer PPI would have the opposite effect, potentially easing yields and weighing on the dollar.
The US 30-year Treasury auction will also be closely watched. Strong demand could push long-term yields lower and improve sentiment across risk assets, while a weak auction could drive yields higher and provide additional support for the USD.
For EUR/USD, the near-term bias remains mildly bullish, but volatility is likely to increase around the ECB announcement. A hawkish ECB combined with weaker US PPI would create the strongest bullish setup for the euro. Conversely, dovish ECB guidance alongside stronger US inflation data could trigger a reversal lower.
Overall, expect a volatile session with the ECB and US PPI setting the initial direction, while Treasury yields and the 30-year auction could determine whether the move is sustained. Friday’s US CPI will remain the next major catalyst for the broader dollar trend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.1722
Resistance Level 2: 1.1765
Resistance Level 3: 1.1800
Support Level 1: 1.1570
Support Level 2: 1.1530
Support Level 3: 1.1500
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments support JPY USDJPY remains under pressure, with the Japanese yen supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan could continue moving towards tighter monetary policy. The pair is also vulnerable to changes in market sentiment and US Treasury yields.
Today's Japanese data, including M2 and M3 money supply and machine tool orders, will provide further insight into the strength of the Japanese economy. Stronger data could support expectations for further Bank of Japan policy tightening and provide additional support for the yen.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent comments have also increased attention on the yen. His remarks suggest that US authorities are increasingly focused on currency movements and excessive yen weakness, which could limit the scope for a significant USDJPY rally.
In the US, the $39 billion 10-year Treasury note auction will be closely watched. Strong demand could push Treasury yields lower and add further pressure to USDJPY. Conversely, weak demand could lift yields and provide the dollar with some short-term support.
Conclusion: The short-term outlook for USDJPY remains bearish. The yen continues to benefit from expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy and increased political attention towards currency weakness. However, the US 10-year Treasury auction could create short-term volatility. Higher US yields may support a temporary rebound in USDJPY, but unless yields rise significantly, rallies are likely to face renewed selling pressure.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 155.36
Resistance Level 2: 156.47
Resistance Level 3: 157.30
Support Level 1: 152.20
Support Level 2: 151.00
Support Level 3: 150.00
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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USDJPY cautious bearish bias ahead of the employment data USD/JPY is expected to remain volatile today, with the US August jobs report likely to be the main driver of price action. The release will be closely watched for further clues on the strength of the US economy and the likely direction of Federal Reserve policy.
A stronger-than-expected employment report, particularly if accompanied by higher wage growth, could support US Treasury yields and provide fresh upside momentum for the dollar. This would increase the potential for USD/JPY to recover from recent weakness. Conversely, softer payrolls or weaker wage data would add to concerns over slowing economic momentum and could increase selling pressure on the pair as the yen benefits from lower US yield expectations.
Elsewhere, remarks from BoE Governor Bailey, the BoE DMP survey and comments from ECB’s Lane may influence broader interest-rate expectations and market sentiment. Japanese household spending and Canadian employment data could also contribute to intraday volatility, although the US jobs report remains the dominant event.
Overall, USD/JPY carries a cautious bearish bias ahead of the employment data. A disappointing US jobs report could reinforce downside momentum, while a strong upside surprise would be needed to generate a more convincing recovery. Traders will be closely watching the reaction in US Treasury yields, which is likely to provide the clearest indication of the market's next move.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 157.40
Resistance Level 2: 158,00
Resistance Level 3: 158.66
Support Level 1: 155.20
Support Level 2: 154.60
Support Level 3: 154.00
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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Gold, cautiously bullish supported by US Dollar weakness Gold is trading with a stronger tone, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields. The main focus today will be the US August ISM Services PMI and initial jobless claims, ahead of Friday's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report.
A weaker-than-expected ISM Services reading or higher jobless claims would increase concerns about slowing US economic momentum. This would likely weaken the dollar and reduce Treasury yields, creating a more supportive environment for gold.
Conversely, a strong ISM Services report, particularly if the employment and prices components remain elevated, could strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy. This could push the US dollar and Treasury yields higher and create downside pressure on gold.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments will also be closely watched. A hawkish message supporting further policy tightening could limit gold's gains, while a more cautious and data-dependent tone could support further upside.
International data, including services PMIs from China, Italy and Canada, together with Swiss inflation and GDP figures, will provide additional insight into global economic conditions. However, the US releases are likely to remain the main drivers for gold today.
Corporate earnings from Ciena, Zscaler and Lululemon could also influence broader market sentiment. Strong earnings could improve risk appetite and reduce safe-haven demand for gold, while disappointing results could increase defensive positioning and provide additional support.
Conclusion for gold trading today:
The short-term outlook for gold is cautiously bullish, supported by the weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. However, volatility is likely to increase around the US ISM Services data, jobless claims and Christopher Waller's comments. Softer US economic data should support further upside in gold, while stronger-than-expected activity and hawkish Fed signals could trigger renewed selling pressure. The broader direction will remain heavily influenced by Friday's US employment report.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 4533
Resistance Level 2: 4522
Resistance Level 3: 4700
Support Level 1: 4280
Support Level 2: 4210
Support Level 3: 4153
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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WTI Crude Oil spike on geopolitical tensions Today’s economic and corporate calendar is important for broader market sentiment, but WTI crude oil is likely to remain primarily driven by geopolitical developments and concerns about global supply disruption.
The US August ADP employment report and July factory orders will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy. Stronger-than-expected data could support the US dollar and create some headwinds for commodities, while weaker figures may increase concerns about future energy demand. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be closely watched for signs of slowing economic activity and persistent inflationary pressures.
Elsewhere, Australia’s Q2 GDP, Japan’s monetary base and Italy’s July PPI are likely to have only an indirect impact on crude prices through their influence on global risk sentiment and currencies. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ decisions, along with comments from the Bank of Japan’s Takata, could also create volatility in currency markets, with any significant strengthening in the US dollar potentially weighing on oil prices.
Earnings from Broadcom, Snowflake and Hewlett Packard Enterprise will be more relevant for broader equity-market sentiment, particularly the technology sector, and are therefore likely to have only a limited direct impact on WTI.
The main driver for oil remains geopolitical risk and the threat of disruption to global oil supplies and shipping routes. As long as tensions remain elevated, the geopolitical risk premium is likely to continue supporting crude prices.
Conclusion: The short-term bias for WTI remains bullish, although volatility is likely to remain extremely high. Following the recent strong rally, the market may be vulnerable to periods of profit-taking and sharp intraday reversals. However, as long as geopolitical tensions continue to threaten oil supply and transportation, buying on meaningful pullbacks may remain the preferred approach. The key downside risk would be any credible signs of de-escalation, which could trigger a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for WTI today, with a bullish but highly volatile trading bias.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 9450
Resistance Level 2: 9678
Resistance Level 3: 9900
Support Level 1: 8743
Support Level 2: 8390
Support Level 3: 8045
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. DowJones bias is cautiously bullish Market sentiment has turned more positive overnight following Nvidia’s results, which provided fresh support for the AI and technology trade. Revenue guidance of $108bn versus $105.2bn expected, together with management’s expectation of around 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, reinforced confidence that strong AI demand can continue into 2027.
Nvidia gained 4.7% after-hours, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.48% and Nasdaq futures 0.83%. Positive results from Salesforce and CrowdStrike added further support to the technology sector.
The main counterweight remains US interest-rate expectations. July core PCE was in line at +0.2% m/m, but the underlying details were viewed as somewhat inflationary. This pushed 2-year Treasury yields up 3.6bps to 4.21%, while markets priced slightly more Fed tightening over the coming months.
Oil remains another important variable. Brent fell 0.84% to $87.84, despite uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, and is lower again this morning. A sustained decline in oil would help ease inflation and support equities.
Dow Jones Trading Conclusion
The near-term bias for the Dow Jones is cautiously bullish, although probably less pronounced than for the Nasdaq because the Dow has less direct exposure to the AI/technology trade.
The strongest positive signal is the broader improvement in risk sentiment following Nvidia’s earnings. If US futures maintain their overnight gains into the cash open, the Dow could initially push higher and retest recent resistance/highs.
However, traders should watch US Treasury yields and the weekly jobless claims data closely. A renewed rise in yields could limit gains, particularly if the data reinforces expectations that the Fed will remain restrictive. Conversely, weaker labour-market data combined with stable or falling yields would provide a stronger bullish environment for equities.
Trading view: Bullish above the previous session’s high, with momentum favouring a move towards recent Dow highs. A failure to hold the opening gains, particularly if Treasury yields rise, would increase the risk of a reversal back towards near-term support.
Key drivers today: Nvidia/AI sentiment → US yields → jobless claims → oil prices → Jackson Hole expectations.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 54258
Resistance Level 2: 54500
Resistance Level 3: 54760
Support Level 1: 53153
Support Level 2: 52720
Support Level 3: 52220
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NSDQ100 expect elevated volatility - Nvidia guidance Markets have turned more positive as fresh reports suggest the US and Iran could be moving toward a ceasefire, although nothing has been confirmed yet. The improved geopolitical tone has driven a sharp decline in oil, with Brent down around 8.6% since Friday, easing fears of another inflationary shock.
Lower oil prices have supported a strong global bond rally, with 10-year Treasury yields falling 6.8bps yesterday. Lower yields have also provided support for equities, particularly technology stocks.
The AI trade is showing renewed strength ahead of Nvidia’s earnings tonight. Nvidia gained 2.19% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.44%. Although the semiconductor index remains 20.8% below its June peak, it is still up 63.6% YTD. This helped the S&P 500 gain 0.32% and Nasdaq 0.66%, despite weakness across many individual S&P constituents.
On the Fed, markets have reduced the probability of a September rate hike from 43% to 36%. However, Boston Fed President Collins warned that further tightening could be appropriate without sustained progress on disinflation. This means today's July PCE inflation data remains important, with economists expecting core PCE at +0.18% month-on-month.
NASDAQ 100 Trading Conclusion
The short-term setup for the NASDAQ 100 is moderately bullish, helped by falling oil prices, lower Treasury yields and renewed optimism around AI ahead of Nvidia's earnings. The key catalyst is now Nvidia: a strong earnings report and positive guidance could trigger a fresh move higher in technology stocks, while a disappointment could produce significant profit-taking given the recent volatility in the AI trade.
For today's session, PCE inflation is the first major risk event. A softer-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations that the Fed does not need to hike in September, potentially pushing yields lower and providing a further tailwind for the NASDAQ 100. Conversely, a hotter PCE number could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure high-duration technology stocks.
Trading bias: cautiously bullish above near-term support, but expect elevated volatility. The strongest upside scenario would be softer PCE + lower yields + strong Nvidia guidance. A break below today's key support levels, particularly if accompanied by rising Treasury yields, would weaken the bullish setup and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 29540
Resistance Level 2: 29980
Resistance Level 3: 30240
Support Level 1: 28414
Support Level 2: 28070
Support Level 3: 27717
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Gold cautiously bullish above key support US Treasury Secretary Bessent escalated pressure on Iran by threatening secondary sanctions against countries and institutions supporting Iran’s economy, describing the strategy as “economic asphyxiation.” The US sanctioned 60 Iran-linked entities and individuals and indicated that a major financial institution could be targeted later this week, potentially increasing concerns around China’s dealings with Iran. However, there were no major new measures announced, while Iran said it was prepared for further sanctions.
Oil markets remained relatively calm despite the rhetoric, with Brent falling 2.35% to $92.17, as continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced fears of an immediate supply shock. Lower oil prices supported Treasuries, with the 10-year yield falling 3.7bps to 4.70% and the 30-year declining 4.5bps to 5.22%.
Equities were weaker, led by technology and semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.28% and Nasdaq 0.76%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.70%. Nvidia declined 2.91%, extending its losing streak to seven sessions ahead of earnings.
Gold Trading Conclusion
For gold, the backdrop remains mixed but potentially supportive. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the threat of further US sanctions continue to provide a safe-haven bid, while softer Treasury yields are also positive for non-yielding gold. However, the decline in oil prices and the absence of a major escalation in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced some of the immediate geopolitical premium.
Trading bias: cautiously bullish above key support, but gold could remain volatile ahead of US economic data and Fed commentary. A sustained move higher in gold would be more convincing if Treasury yields continue to fall and geopolitical tensions escalate. Conversely, strong US data, rising yields, or further de-escalation around Iran would create downside pressure.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 4714
Resistance Level 2: 4769
Resistance Level 3: 4829
Support Level 1: 4520
Support Level 2: 4453
Support Level 3: 4408
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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EURUSD, Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday The US dollar remains in focus this week as markets balance easing bond yields against growing risk aversion and uncertainty over Fed policy.
Treasury yields have eased slightly, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.71% and the 30-year yield to 5.25%. Normally, lower yields would weigh on the dollar by reducing its interest rate advantage.
However, risk sentiment remains negative, with US equity futures extending losses after the S&P 500 fell 1.43% last week. Weakness across Asian markets is reinforcing a defensive tone, which is helping to support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Oil prices remain a key driver. Although Brent crude has pulled back to around $93 per barrel, markets continue to price in the possibility of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated energy prices could keep inflation pressures alive, limiting the scope for Fed easing and potentially supporting the dollar.
The main event for FX markets will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Futures currently imply a 39% probability of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting, leaving the dollar highly sensitive to any policy signals. A more hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks or higher-for-longer rates would likely strengthen the dollar, while a dovish message could trigger renewed selling pressure.
US Dollar Outlook
The dollar is currently receiving support from safe-haven flows and lingering inflation concerns linked to energy markets. While the recent decline in Treasury yields is a modest headwind, the broader direction for the greenback will likely depend on whether Warsh signals that further tightening remains on the table. Until then, the US dollar is likely to remain firm against risk-sensitive currencies.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.1737
Resistance Level 2: 1.1798
Resistance Level 3: 1.1885
Support Level 1: 1.1590
Support Level 2: 1.1500
Support Level 3: 1.1443
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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DowJones oversold bounce back Middle East tensions and Trump’s threat of further economic pressure on Iran pushed oil higher, with Brent briefly above $93/bbl. This lifted inflation expectations, with 1yr inflation swaps posting their biggest daily rise since March, while markets increased the odds of a September Fed hike to 36%.
Stronger-than-expected US data reinforced the move higher in yields, as the Philadelphia Fed survey hit its highest level since 2021 and jobless claims remained low. Rising yields weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.87%), Nasdaq (-1.00%) and Magnificent 7 (-1.11%) all falling. Walmart’s weak results also raised concerns about the US consumer amid higher energy costs and interest rates.
Overnight, sentiment has stabilised somewhat, with the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and Nasdaq (+0.20%) edging higher, while Asian markets remain mixed.
The Dow Jones remains under pressure heading into today’s session, with higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns creating a challenging backdrop. After Thursday’s 1.3% decline, the index is vulnerable to further downside if yields continue to move higher or Middle East tensions escalate.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 53833
Resistance Level 2: 54060
Resistance Level 3: 54450
Support Level 1: 52480
Support Level 2: 52220
Support Level 3: 51970
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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USDCAD, lower US tariffs on Canadian goods? The July FOMC minutes struck a hawkish tone, with many officials saying further tightening could be needed if inflation remains elevated. However, the wording stopped short of signalling an imminent rate hike, leading markets to slightly reduce September hike expectations from 35% to 32%. December pricing also fell to its lowest level since June.
Inflation concerns remain, with Brent crude rising for a fourth consecutive session to $91.62, before edging higher again overnight. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockage and escalating US pressure on Iran continue to raise the risk of prolonged higher energy prices and broader inflationary pressure.
Elsewhere, the US and Canada are still working towards a tariff agreement, with reports suggesting lower US tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and aluminium, although details remain unconfirmed.
Today’s focus: German PPI, US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, alongside comments from Fed’s Musalem and ECB’s Sleijpen. Walmart earnings will also be watched for clues on the strength of the US consumer.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.3900
Resistance Level 2: 1.3940
Resistance Level 3: 1.4000
Support Level 1: 1.3740
Support Level 2: 1.3690
Support Level 3: 1.3645
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
S&P 500 remains bearish, FOMC minutes due today. The S&P 500 (-0.69%) extended its losing streak to three sessions, with the selloff driven primarily by renewed weakness in chip stocks and growing stagflation concerns. The Philly Semiconductor Index fell -4.98%, while the NASDAQ dropped -1.33%, highlighting continued pressure on the technology and AI trade. The decline was also relatively broad-based, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 falling -0.45%.
The main macro headwind remains the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with no progress towards US-Iran negotiations. President Trump said there were no talks scheduled, while Iran indicated the Strait would remain closed until US conditions were met. This pushed oil higher across the futures curve, with the 12-month Brent contract reaching a two-month high of $78.31, reinforcing concerns that elevated energy prices could keep inflation higher for longer and put further pressure on bond yields and equities.
Trading conclusion: The short-term bias for the S&P 500 remains bearish, particularly while the index remains under pressure from technology stocks and rising yields. A break below recent support would increase the risk of a deeper correction, while any stabilisation in bond yields, oil prices or chip stocks could provide a relief bounce. Today’s key catalysts are UK CPI, the FOMC minutes and comments from ECB President Lagarde, with the FOMC minutes particularly important for the outlook on US rates and the next move in the S&P 500.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 7,826
Resistance Level 2: 7,870
Resistance Level 3: 7,924
Support Level 1: 7,670
Support Level 2: 7,624
Support Level 3: 7,580
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
GBPUSD - UK labour data due Markets weakened as worsening Middle East tensions and a lack of progress between the US and Iran raised expectations of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. Brent crude rose above $90/bbl, adding to stagflation concerns and pushing long-end bond yields to multi-year highs, with the US 30yr Treasury yield reaching 5.31%.
Equities also came under pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 0.52%, its worst session of August, while the equal-weighted index dropped 0.92%. Europe followed the same pattern, with the STOXX 600 extending its losing streak to four sessions.
Today’s focus turns to US industrial production, housing data and pending home sales, alongside Germany’s ZEW survey, UK labour data and comments from ECB’s Lane. Earnings include Home Depot.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.3610
Resistance Level 2: 1.3635
Resistance Level 3: 1.3660
Support Level 1: 1.3480
Support Level 2: 1.3436
Support Level 3: 1.3396
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
DAX awaits ZEW and ECB's consumer expectations survey Bond markets were pulled in two directions last week, with the Iran-US deadlock adding uncertainty while softer US economic data increasingly shaped expectations for Fed policy. At the front end, 2yr Treasury yields fell 2.5bps as markets reduced the probability of a September rate hike. July inflation data was supportive of the dovish view, with core CPI slowing to 2.5% y/y, while weaker retail sales and consumer sentiment reinforced concerns about the pace of US growth.
However, the longer end of the curve moved in the opposite direction. 10yr yields rose 4.7bps to 4.69%, while 30yr yields climbed 5.8bps to 5.26%, bringing the latter close to its highest level since 2007. This highlights continued pressure on longer-dated bonds despite expectations for easier Fed policy.
US equities performed better, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.36% and the Russell 2000 rising 1.12% to a record high. Technology was broadly stable, although the Magnificent 7 fell 0.97%. Meanwhile, the VIX dropped to a 2026 low of 14.25, reflecting relatively low investor anxiety during the quieter August period.
European equities were more subdued, with the STOXX 600, CAC and FTSE 100 all lower, although the DAX gained 0.46% and reached another record high.
Looking ahead, attention will shift toward US consumer spending and the health of the retail sector, with Home Depot, Target, TJX and Walmart reporting. Investors will also monitor Analog Devices, Deere, Alibaba and Baidu, while the direction of long-term Treasury yields and expectations for Fed policy remain key drivers for markets.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 26613
Resistance Level 2: 26766
Resistance Level 3: 26950
Support Level 1: 26270
Support Level 2: 26080
Support Level 3: 25936
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
