Silver may still be heading much lowerSilver has now broken below the key support level around $58.50, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook. Following yesterday's sharp decline, the next major area of support appears to be around $49.50 if selling pressure continues.
The breakdown also strengthens what appears to be a descending triangle, a pattern that is typically considered bearish.
Unless silver can reclaim the former support area around $58.50 and move back above the 10-day exponential moving average near $59.50, followed by the 20-day moving average around $61, the technical picture continues to favour further downside.
A recovery above those resistance levels could pave the way for a rally towards $67.50. However, momentum remains weak, with the relative strength index (RSI) continuing to suggest that silver is vulnerable to making fresh lows.
The US dollar also remains an important factor. Although softer-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data have weighed on the dollar this week, the decline has been relatively modest. If the US Dollar Index resumes its broader uptrend, it would likely create an additional headwind for silver.
Recent price action suggests that easing inflation expectations alone have not been enough to support precious metals, with silver recording its lowest close since December following yesterday's sell-off.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Brent oil extends rebound after holding key supportBrent crude oil prices recently fell back towards the support area around $70 per barrel, filling the gap that had remained open since 2 March. That support zone has held, and the market has since rebounded sharply.
The move has become more forceful since the TradingView chart was captured on 13 July, with Brent extending into the mid-$80s as renewed Middle East tensions add a fresh geopolitical risk premium to energy markets. That shift means the setup is no longer simply about whether Brent can recover from support; the immediate question is now whether the rebound can hold above the first major resistance area.
From a technical perspective, the recent rebound has improved the short-term picture. Brent has moved back above its 20-day moving average, while the relative strength index has broken above the downtrend that had been in place after the market reached oversold territory, below 30, from late June into early July.
The 10-day moving average is also close to crossing above the 20-day moving average. If that crossover is confirmed, it would provide another indication that short-term bullish momentum is strengthening and that the recent recovery is becoming more than a routine bounce from oversold conditions.
The first important upside level remains the area around $82.50, where prices consolidated between 16 and 22 June. Brent has now moved back into and above that zone, so the level may become a key reference point for whether the breakout can be sustained.
If Brent can hold above $82.50, attention is likely to shift towards the lower end of the next resistance zone, around $85.50, and then towards the 50-day moving average. That average sits inside a broader resistance band extending towards roughly $94 per barrel. A sustained move through that region would make the technical recovery look significantly stronger.
The bullish case still depends on whether the market can sustain the momentum that appears to be building. A failure to hold above the former $82.50 resistance area would weaken the near-term breakout signal and could leave Brent vulnerable to a pullback towards the short-term moving averages.
Below that, the key support area remains around $70.50. This level dates back to late January 2026 and held firmly until the end of February. A decisive break below $70.50 would therefore signal that the recent rebound had failed and could open the door to a much steeper decline.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Gold faces risk of a sharp breakdownGold prices have come under pressure as oil prices and bond yields rise, while the US dollar continues to strengthen. Although gold is often considered a safe-haven asset, that has not been the case since March, when tensions in the Middle East began to escalate. Instead, gold has instead traded like a risk asset, and that dynamic may well continue.
Gold has been in a major downtrend since mid-May and has failed to advance beyond its 20-day moving average on several occasions. Since mid-June, gold has been finding support in the $3,950 to $4,050 region, which, when combined with the prevailing downtrend, appears to be forming a descending triangle. These are typically considered bearish continuation patterns, and once the period of consolidation ends, gold may break below support and continue lower. If the region between $3,950 and $4,050 breaks, the next area of technical support appears to be around $3,650.
Additionally, momentum in gold remains bearish. The relative strength index has been trending lower and has been unable to move above 47. Each time it has reached that level, it has failed to see follow-through, suggesting that the momentum trend has not changed. Unless the relative strength index moves above 50, any visual change in the price trend would remain unconfirmed.
USD/JPY breakout points to highest levels in four decadesUSD/JPY has climbed to its highest level in nearly four decades, although the risk of intervention by the Bank of Japan continues to increase. The FX pair has moved above the highs last seen in July 2024 and is now approaching its next technical resistance level at around 164.50. It is currently trading near 162.30.
The weekly chart shows this most clearly, with previous resistance level around 161.95, the high reached during the week of 1 July 2024. Now that USD/JPY has moved above that level, the weekly chart suggests the next area of resistance comes in around 164.50, a level last seen in November 1986 before the yen entered a prolonged period of appreciation against the dollar.
The weekly chart also shows the relative strength index at around 65.40, and it has been trending higher, indicating that momentum in USD/JPY remains bullish. With the relative strength index (RSI) still below 70, there may be scope for further gains.
The weekly chart also appears to show an ascending triangle in USD/JPY and, perhaps more importantly, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Both patterns suggest that a long-term breakout could happen soon, which could ultimately weaken the yen significantly and push USD/JPY towards 180 or even 200
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. EUR/USD faces a critical test before US jobs reportThe EUR/USD finds itself in a precarious position one day ahead of the key June US jobs report on Thursday, 2 July. Currently, EUR/USD is trading around 1.14, which is a key level of support. Additionally, we have seen a key level of resistance emerge at the 10-day exponential moving average.
Meanwhile, support for the euro appears fairly limited at this point. In fact, the euro is trading below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting they are now more likely to act as resistance than support.
If the euro breaks below the 1.1400 level following what could be a strong US jobs report, it is likely to weaken towards 1.1280. Over time, that could even lead to a further decline towards the 1.1090 area.
It is worth noting that the euro may be forming a bullish divergence, with the RSI making a higher low as recently as 24 June, while the exchange rate has made a lower low since mid-March. That could be the first sign that the euro is forming a bottom. However, it does not necessarily mean that the euro’s decline is over.
At this point, broad-based dollar strength appears to be developing across markets, which could become a significant headwind for the euro going forward.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Silver prices may continue to fall amid a strong dollarSilver prices have continued to decline throughout June. The move appears to be accelerating to the downside as the dollar continues to strengthen. The dollar’s recent surge has been driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance at its June policy meeting, reflected in the dot plots' hawkish tilt and the absence of forward guidance, as well as the hawkish tone at the press conference delivered by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
As a result, silver has continued its decline through the second half of June and is already trading below $59.50. This comes as silver appears to be reaching oversold conditions once again, similar to those seen in mid-June, when the price fell below the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI dropped below 30.
These conditions could provide an opportunity for silver to consolidate sideways while also creating the potential for a rebound towards the 20-day moving average, similar to the move seen between 11 June and 17 June. However, the broader downward bias in silver may not yet be complete, particularly if the dollar continues to strengthen through the latter half of 2026.
A break of support at $59.50 could mean that silver falls even further, perhaps all the way back to around $49.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. S
USD/JPY tests July 2024 high amid diverging rate expectationsEven after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points during the week ending 19 June, USD/JPY has continued to rise, indicating that the Japanese yen remains under pressure against the US dollar. The move reflects the market’s view that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to deliver many more rate hikes, with only around a 70% chance of one additional increase being priced in by December.
Meanwhile, markets have adopted a much more hawkish view of the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures are now pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026. As a result, US-Japan rate differentials are expected to remain wide, continuing to support the dollar against the yen.
USD/JPY is now approaching a key resistance level near 161.75, corresponding to the high reached in July 2024. A sustained move above that level may indicate scope for further gains, with the next minor area of technical resistance at 164.50. Beyond that, the next major resistance region does not appear until around 180.
The main risk to this outlook remains intervention by the Japanese authorities to limit further yen weakness. However, the last intervention effort only managed to push USD/JPY back towards the 155.5 area before the move quickly reversed. This may suggest that intervention alone could struggle to alter the broader trend. Changes in expectations for Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan policy could also influence the outlook.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Brent enters oversold territory following technical breakdownGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to heightened volatility in Brent crude but concerns over a broader escalation may be behind us. As a result, prices have plunged, breaking below a key support zone around $93-$94 per barrel, confirming what appeared to be a double-top pattern and sending prices towards $80 per barrel.
However, Brent is now oversold, with price trading below the lower Bollinger Band over the past two sessions and the relative strength index (RSI) falling below 30. Typically, when this combination occurs, it leads to a period of consolidation or a short-term rebound. Such a move could see Brent retrace towards its 10-day or 20-day exponential moving averages, which are currently around $89 and $94 per barrel respectively.
That said, resistance around $94 is likely to be formidable. This level has served as an important area of support since mid-April, so it will probably require a significant catalyst for Brent to break back above it.
There is also scope for Brent to continue lower. Measuring the distance from the top of the double-top pattern to the neckline suggests a downside risk of approximately $72 per barrel, depending on the exact point from which the neckline break is measured.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
The yen faces a defining weekThe Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on 16 June. Markets currently expect a greater than 90% chance of a rate hike at this meeting, which would raise the overnight rate to 1% from 0.75%.
The market will also be listening closely for any indication that a second rate hike could follow later this year. Expectations for another increase before year-end remain mixed. This will be an important consideration not only for interest rates, but also for the Japanese yen, which has continued to weaken against the US dollar, pushing USD/JPY above 160.
The 160 level has been a key area for USD/JPY, particularly after Japanese government officials intervened in the market in late April. A breakout above 160 could raise the odds of USD/JPY moving towards the highs seen in July 2024 and potentially even exceeding them.
The technical picture suggests there may still be room for further gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trend higher and is currently around 58. Meanwhile, the 20-day moving average has acted as support, while the upper Bollinger Band has at times provided resistance.
USD/JPY is currently bouncing from support at the 20-day moving average and could move towards the 160.75 to 161.00 region before reaching the upper Bollinger Band. Furthermore, an RSI reading of just 58 suggests the pair can continue to rise before reaching overbought conditions.
One factor that could support the yen is the recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has contributed to lower oil prices. As Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy, lower oil prices could reduce import costs and the foreign currency required to pay for those imports. This could provide support for both the yen and the broader Japanese economy.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. The euro may weaken further versus the US dollarThe EUR/USD fell sharply after the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on June 5. The move pushed the euro below a short-term support level at 1.159 and, more importantly, out of a consolidation phase that appeared to be forming a larger bear flag pattern. As of June 8, EUR/USD appears to be bouncing from a support region around 1.151, though whether that level can hold over the longer term remains to be seen.
EUR/USD is now trading below all its major moving averages, including the 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages, as well as the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Additionally, the shorter-term 10-day and 20-day moving averages are trending lower and are now acting as resistance. This suggests there is significant overhead resistance around 1.158.
A break below support at 1.151 could trigger a decline towards 1.14. It would also suggest that EUR/USD is extending lower from its bear flag pattern and could head even lower. A measured move based on the bear flag could indicate a move towards 1.14, which would take the pair back to levels last seen in mid-March.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has trended lower since peaking in overbought territory above 70 in late January, suggesting that EUR/USD momentum has been fading. The RSI is currently around 36 and still trending lower, which some technical analysts interpret as a sign that bearish momentum remains present.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. E
Gold risks a major breakdownGold has struggled over the past several months, trading sideways in a choppy range. However, it appears to be forming a large descending triangle and is currently trading just above a key support zone between $4,375 and $4,485.
A break below this support area would be a very negative development for gold and may suggest a decline towards the $4,000 region. In addition, momentum has continued to weaken, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending lower and potentially poised to accelerate to the downside.
One reason gold may struggle going forward is that the dollar has begun to strengthen. The Dollar Index appears to be consolidating within a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, which could see it rise towards 100.5. That would place the index in a strong position to break out and move even higher. A stronger dollar would, of course, be a significant headwind for gold. Longer-term, the dollar index also appears to be in a process of completing a rounding bottom.
Additionally, higher oil prices have pushed both interest rates and real yields higher, increasing the carry cost of holding gold. As a result, gold is facing several headwinds that could make it more difficult for prices to strengthen and move higher.
However, if tensions in the Middle East were to ease, leading to lower oil prices, and gold were able to break above resistance around $4,600, it could trigger a rally towards the $4,800 to $4,900 region.
For now, though, unless something fundamentally changes in the outlook for the dollar and interest rates, the headwinds facing gold appear to be building.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Yen weakness builds as USD/JPY nears key resistanceUSD/JPY has been weakening against the dollar, moving above 159 and towards 159.50. The area around 159.50 has served as a modest level of support and resistance for the Japanese yen from mid-April, before the intervention seen at the end of that month.
A break above 159.50 could see USD/JPY rally towards 160.50, taking it back to the highs reached before the Japanese government's intervention. There are also signs that momentum is building, with the RSI moving towards 60, suggesting it could continue to accelerate for some time before USD/JPY reaches overbought territory.
Yen faces challenges
In addition, the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting is not until the week of 15 June, leaving the market time to further weaken the yen against the dollar, especially if the market believes the BoJ will not raise rates at the upcoming meeting. This could add pressure on the Bank of Japan ahead of its policy decision on whether to raise interest rates.
At present, markets are increasingly anticipating a rate rise by the Bank of Japan at either the June or July meeting. The odds of a hike in June currently stand at around 70%, while the odds of a hike by July are almost 80%.
Another point of weakness for the yen is that oil prices have remained elevated. Although prices have retreated somewhat, a renewed move higher towards the $100-per-barrel level could place further pressure on the Japanese currency, causing it to weaken further against the US dollar.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Silver prices reach a critical technical turning pointSilver prices have reached an important area of both support and resistance, and one way or another, it seems prices could be on the move. Currently, silver is converging around its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages and its 50-day simple moving average, between $74.50 and $76. Additionally, there is a strong support line for silver around $70. This support line has now been tested on a couple of occasions since the end of March.
A break below support at $74 could prompt the silver price to test the more psychologically important 200-day simple moving average, currently rising around $66.90. A break of support at that level would be a significant negative for the commodity.
However, if silver manages to hold support around the moving averages, it may rally towards a downtrend line established around $85, dating back to the beginning of March.
Implied volatility for silver has been in a steady decline. This could indicate that the optimism and bullishness seen during the autumn and early winter continue to fade. Rising prices and implied volatility were consistent trends during that period and have served as a good leading indicator of the direction of silver over the past few months. A further decline in the VXSLV could strengthen the bearish case for silver even more.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. S
Brent oil nears major support as peace hopes riseOil prices are falling sharply as talks of peace between the US and Iran give traders hope that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and that oil will begin to flow out of the region. This has brought Brent crude below $100 and is now approaching a key support range between $93 and $96.
The last time Brent reached that area of support was in early April, and it proved to be an important level that not only held but also allowed oil to rebound and push to new highs around $119. Now, that area takes on an even greater role because a break of support this time could confirm a double-top pattern that has formed in oil.
The region between $93 and $96 may now serve as the neckline of the double-top pattern, and a break below that neckline could send Brent prices back to where they traded before the war began in late February, around $72.
However, if the neckline and support area hold, it could indicate that oil prices are heading back towards the previous highs near $119 and, more importantly, could eventually move even higher.
For now, the relative strength index has turned lower, suggesting that bearish momentum in oil has taken over and increasing the odds of a test of support.
This has quickly become a very big test for oil that may determine the next big swing in prices.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. The USD/JPY may be heading higherThe USD/JPY has now climbed back above the 158.5 level, which had previously served as support for the currency pair before the apparent Japanese government intervention on 30 April.
This is an important level for the currency pair to hold, as doing so would effectively return the pair to its pre-intervention trading range. It also suggests that the government’s attempt to intervene in the FX market has not been particularly successful at this stage.
It may even embolden traders to push USD/JPY back towards the 160 level once again, to test whether the government responds this time or there is no reaction at all. If there is no response, it could allow USD/JPY to break through resistance at 160 and rally back towards the highs last seen in July 2024, around 161.5–162.
However, if USD/JPY is unable to hold support at 158.5, it is likely to retrace lower towards the support region around 155.50.
Currently, the RSI is consolidating and is not offering a particularly clear directional signal. We have one trendline pointing lower, while another, drawn from the lows established in January 2026, is pointing higher.
Overall, the yen has not materially strengthened despite the intervention. But with rising rates in Japan and higher oil prices, the pressure remains on both the government and the central bank to support the currency.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
EUR/USD may weaken further as key support breaksThe EUR/USD has been weakening in recent days and has now fallen below support at 1.166, a level that could prove critical if not regained quickly. If sustained, the decline would likely confirm a double-top pattern in the EUR/USD and suggest the pair could weaken further in the days ahead.
Currently, the EUR/USD has fallen to the lower Bollinger Band, which is acting as a support level. However, that support is likely to be only temporary because Bollinger Bands expand and contract daily, and at least for now, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is only at 44, suggesting that the EUR/USD is not yet technically oversold.
If support has been broken and the double-top pattern is confirmed, the EUR/USD could have room to fall towards 1.151, measured from the closing high on 15 April to the neckline around 1.166.
However, if the EUR/USD can hold support and move back above the neckline, now serving as resistance at 1.166, it is possible this will turn into a false break, allowing the EUR/USD to recover its recent losses and potentially push back towards resistance at 1.177, which would erase the decline seen over the prior trading sessions.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. USD/CAD nears major breakout as Fed rate cut hopes fadeThe USD/CAD may be poised to rise in the coming weeks as interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Canada widen. The latest U.S. inflation data is likely to make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates in 2026, and it may even have been hot enough to shift the pendulum back towards the possibility of rate hikes.
This has left the USD/CAD very close to breaking out above a key resistance area around 1.37. If that occurs, the pair could rally towards 1.39, signalling further strength in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar.
At present, the pair is testing resistance at the 50-day moving average near 1.37, while a more significant resistance level sits at the 200-day moving average around 1.3810. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum gauge has begun trending higher. More importantly, after reaching oversold levels in late January, the RSI has now formed a higher low, suggesting that momentum in USD/CAD continues to strengthen.
If the pair manages to break above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, there is a possibility that it could go on to test the long-term resistance area around 1.39, corresponding to the downtrend established at the end of 2025.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. The semiconductor rally reaches extremely overbought levelsThe semiconductor stocks have been among the hottest in the market, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up more than 50% since the end of March. However, both the sector and the ETF are now extremely overbought, with the SMH trading above its upper Bollinger band and the relative strength index above 80. The last time something similar happened was in October, which led to a prolonged period of sideways consolidation and an eventual return to the lower Bollinger band by the end of November.
Additionally, the SMH has risen more than 50% above its 200-day moving average. Historically, that is the most overextended the ETF has been since its inception in 2001. This highlights just how overbought both the ETF and the broader semiconductor sector have become at this point.
For now, the 10-day exponential moving average may be the best early warning of a potential turn in the SMH. If the ETF breaks below that moving average, which also coincides with a support level near $525, the pullback in both the ETF and the broader sector could begin to unfold, with the potential for a decline back towards another area of consolidation and support around $480.
A further advance, while possible, is likely to prove difficult, and the sector may instead become more range-bound if a pullback fails to develop, leading to a period of sideways consolidation similar to that seen in the autumn of 2025.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. USD/JPY holds key support after suspected interventionSince 28 April, when the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady at about 0.75%, Japanese authorities are suspected to have intervened in the FX market once or twice, triggering sharp intraday declines in USD/JPY. The first significant move came on 30 April, when the pair fell more than 2%, and the second on 6 May, when USD/JPY dipped 1%.
Despite this, downside moves have repeatedly stalled in the ¥155.50 to ¥156 region. This level remains key. As long as it holds, and the broader uptrend remains intact, there is a chance that USD/JPY could stabilise and retest higher levels.
Momentum indicators, including the relative strength index, have turned lower, but this has not yet translated into a confirmed trend reversal.
A sustained break and close below ¥155.50 may be needed to verify a shift in direction, though it might take another round of state intervention for this level to break.
For now, the price action suggests that traders betting on USD/JPY moving higher may hold more sway in the market than Japanese officials expected. However, a break of support could lead to a decline towards ¥152.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Silver Prices Point To Another Leg LowerSilver’s decline continues to evolve and appears to be entering another phase of consolidation, ahead of what is likely to be its next leg lower. The price of the precious and industrial metal has already fallen below the previously noted bear flag, breaking support at $76.50. It now appears to be forming a smaller bear flag pattern, consolidating around $74. A break below $74 could trigger a further decline towards $70.25. However, the $70.25 level is the real test, as a break of that support could open the door to a move towards $60.
At $60, silver prices would have extended by approximately 61.8% beyond the initial bear flag measurement, which began on 10 March. Since then, silver prices have declined by roughly 17%. Meanwhile, momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), has been consolidating sideways. This suggests that although price has fallen, momentum has remained relatively stable, with no meaningful downside acceleration so far. An RSI reading around 45 is broadly neutral. However, a break below $74 could push the RSI lower, indicating increasing downside momentum.
Resistance near $76 appears strong, based on multiple recent tests, serving as both support and resistance. However, if the price were to break above $76, it could trigger a more meaningful advance, potentially allowing silver to rally back towards $80.50.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Gold faces a steeper declineGold prices have broken out of the bear flag that formed since mid-March and are now trading below support at $4,660. Gold appears to be heading towards the next area of support around $4,400.
Again, if this is a true bear flag, we could see gold continue to extend its declines beyond $4,400 and potentially move towards the $3,850 area, which is an important support level dating back to the end of October.
Additionally, gold’s RSI has trended lower over the past several days. While it is not yet oversold, it currently stands at 37, suggesting that gold may be approaching a level of support and consolidation around $4,400 before ultimately breaking lower again if the bear flag plays out to completion.
It is also worth noting that implied volatility levels, as measured by the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), have fallen back towards 26. This could signal that the use of gold as a safe-haven hedge is fading. Additionally, it may indicate that much of the momentum from gold’s earlier rally has dissipated.
The GVZ remains a useful gauge of gold's direction. If implied volatility continues to decline, it may be a signal that gold prices could move lower as well.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. USD/JPY eyes breakout as BOJ decision approachesA Bank of Japan rate decision is expected on 28 April. While no change is anticipated at this week’s meeting, markets are increasingly pricing in a rate hike around July. With rising oil prices and the associated inflationary pressures, markets will be closely watching for any signals about the timing of the BOJ’s next move.
A dovish BOJ meeting would be negative for the yen and could push USD/JPY higher, breaking out of its current period of consolidation and potentially sending it back towards the highs last seen in the summer of 2024, when it was trading near 162. The 160 level has been particularly sensitive for government officials, with the threat of intervention remaining a key consideration for the market.
However, a dovish BOJ meeting and press conference could give the market reason to test these levels and push USD/JPY higher. It appears that a bull flag has formed on the technical chart, and if that is the case, USD/JPY could extend higher from its current level of around 159, potentially revisiting the area around 162.
The relative strength index has also been trending higher recently and has been consolidating in recent days. It too is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout in momentum.
Markets will be watching closely for signals from the BOJ, and anything perceived as neutral or dovish – shifting rate-hike expectations – could drive USD/JPY into its next major leg higher.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Silver’s recent rally may not last for much longerSilver has been trading in a narrow channel over the past few weeks, with an upward bias. The recent rally in silver has also been accompanied by improving momentum, with the relative strength index trending higher. However, the tight range following the steep decline appears to be more of a consolidation phase for silver than a continuation of a longer-term upward bias.
Currently, the precious metal’s prices have retraced 61.8% of their recent decline from the 2 March highs, suggesting the current move higher may be merely a retracement rather than the start of a new advance. In the meantime, the upper Bollinger band is also acting as resistance, capping the movement in silver.
The key test for silver will be whether prices can remain above the lower boundary of the rising trading channel around $76. If silver prices break below that level, it would confirm a trend break and, perhaps more importantly, indicate that what appears to be merely a portion of the bear flag that has formed in silver since 10 March is in fact the full pattern. If silver has formed a bear flag, then, on a break of support around $76, it is more likely than not that the precious metal will see a significant decline, potentially even taking it below $60.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. USD/CAD gains after cooler CPI, eyes further upsideThe USD/CAD is rising slightly following a cooler-than-expected March CPI report. Headline CPI was expected to rise by 2.5% y/y but instead came in at 2.4% y/y. Core CPI also came in well below expectations, rising by 1.9% y/y versus estimates of 2.3%. This has contributed to a decline in the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike by December.
As a result, the USD/CAD is now currently trading higher and attempting to reverse its downtrend after peaking at the beginning of April. The pair appears to have found support around the lower Bollinger Band and at an important technical level dating back to March.
If USD/CAD holds support and rate hike odds continue to slip, the pair may move towards 1.376, where the 10-day exponential moving average currently resides.
However, if the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen and breaks technical support at 1.369, then the pair could move lower towards the next support region around 1.34 to 1.35. This scenario remains possible because, for now, even though USD/CAD has bounced off its lower Bollinger Band, the RSI is still hovering around 39, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold and could decline further.
However, if rate hike expectations from the Bank of Canada are reduced further or removed entirely, USD/CAD could continue to rise – particularly if oil prices begin to fall again.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
