Gold: Is the Next AB=CD Target Already in Sight ?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
🥇 Gold: Is the Next AB=CD Target Already in Sight? 📈🔥
Gold continues to attract attention as the bullish structure remains intact and the price action develops a potential AB=CD harmonic pattern.
The key question now is:
Can Gold complete the projected harmonic move toward the next Fibonacci extension targets? 👀
🎯 Key Fibonacci Extension Targets
Based on the current AB=CD pattern projection, the potential upside targets are:
📌 TP1: 4,146
📌 TP2: 4,223
These levels align with the projected Fibonacci Extension zones and could act as important areas for profit-taking and potential resistance.
🔍 What I'm Watching
For the bullish thesis to remain valid:
✅ Bullish market structure must remain intact
✅ Price should continue forming higher highs and higher lows
✅ Momentum should remain supportive
✅ The AB=CD projection should continue developing as expected
⚠️ As price approaches the projected Fibonacci targets, traders should monitor for momentum exhaustion, bearish divergence, or reversal price action.
📊 My View
Gold's current structure remains technically constructive, with the AB=CD harmonic pattern projecting potential upside toward 4,146, followed by the extended 4,223 Fibonacci target.
The real question is whether Gold will continue its momentum and complete the pattern—or provide a corrective opportunity before reaching the projected targets.
Will Gold complete the AB=CD pattern at 4,146, or could momentum carry it toward the 4,223 extension? 🚀
Any closing below 3960 will invalidate this setup
Share your outlook below! 👇
#Gold #GoldPrice #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #GoldAnalysis #GoldForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #ABCDPattern #HarmonicPattern #FibonacciExtension #Fibonacci #PriceTarget #BullishTrend #MarketStructure #SwingTrading #MomentumTrading #TradingIdeas #CommodityTrading #PreciousMetals #Investing #ChartAnalysis #MarketOutlook #WiSHFundManagement
Above analysis is for educational purposes only. 
Long
HOOD Oversold at HTF WCL | RSI Bullish DivergenceHOOD has now reached a higher-timeframe WCL and also met + exceeded the bearish C target , which tells me price is trading in an oversold location .
What makes this area more interesting is that RSI is showing regular bullish divergence inside the WCL , which adds a bullish reaction signal right where I would want to see one.
So from a structure standpoint, this is not a random bounce area.
It is a zone where price has already stretched into a key HTF reaction point, while momentum is starting to disagree with the downside.
Because of that, I expect price to attempt at least a move back toward the WCL of the bearish sequence .
That said, I am not blindly forcing the idea.
If the current divergence disappears or gets invalidated, I will simply wait for a fresh bullish signal before reassessing.
The main idea here is simple:
oversold price location + HTF WCL + bullish RSI divergence = valid area for a reaction higher .
Not financial advice. This is just my market view based on bias, context, phase, and location. 
Long
MACD Indicator: Why the Histogram Turns Before the CrossoverMACD Indicator: Why the Histogram Turns Before the Crossover
The MACD crossover is the most watched momentum signal on any chart and the slowest one it produces. By the time the MACD line crosses the signal line, the move being confirmed has usually been running for several candles. The signal is not wrong. It is late by construction.
The part that moves first is the histogram, which most traders treat as decoration under the price. It is the fastest component of the MACD indicator, because it measures how quickly momentum is building or fading rather than the moment two lines happen to touch. MACD is a lagging tool with a leading component, and reading it well means watching the component that turns first.
What Is the MACD Indicator?
The method was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s and published through his firm Signalert as the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence trading method. It has three parts, and each says something different.
MACD line. The 12-period exponential moving average of price minus the 26-period exponential moving average. Positive when short-term momentum runs ahead of the longer-term average, negative when it falls behind.
Signal line. A 9-period exponential moving average of the MACD line. A smoothed version of the first line, so it always reacts later.
Histogram. The MACD line minus the signal line, drawn as bars around zero. It shows the gap between the two lines, not their level.
Here is the MACD indicator explained in one sentence: it measures how fast two moving averages are pulling apart, then measures how fast that gap itself is changing. The first measurement is the MACD line, the second is the histogram, and that difference is why they never turn at the same time.
The three components on a EUR/USD daily chart: the MACD line, the slower signal line, and the histogram measuring the gap between them.
How to Use the MACD Indicator
Traders asking how to use MACD indicator readings in a live market usually want one entry rule. There are three signals, they arrive at different speeds, and treating them as interchangeable is the common mistake.
The zero line as a trend filter. Above zero, the 12-period average sits above the 26-period average and the trend is up. Below zero it is down. Taking only bullish crossovers above zero and only bearish ones below removes a large share of counter-trend signals in a market that is genuinely trending.
Entry, stop and target. Enter on the close of the candle that completes the signal, since an unfinished bar can uncross. Place the stop beyond the swing that produced the signal, because MACD gives you timing and nothing about price structure. Exit when the histogram stops expanding: the tool tells you when momentum is fading, which makes it better at exits than entries.
MACD Crossover: Bullish and Bearish
A bullish MACD crossover happens when the MACD line rises through the signal line from below: recent momentum has improved enough to drag the smoothed average up with it. The bearish version is the mirror image.
The mechanism explains the delay. The MACD line is already a difference of two lagging averages, and the signal line lags that. In a clean EUR/USD trend the crossover arrives late but points the right way. In a tight range it flips direction repeatedly and costs money on spread.
A bullish crossover with entry, stop, and the portion of the move already completed before the signal appeared.
The MACD Histogram: What It Actually Measures
The MACD histogram is the distance between the MACD line and the signal line. Taller bars mean the lines are separating and momentum is accelerating. Shrinking bars mean they are converging and momentum is fading, even while price still makes new highs.
That is the key point. A crossover can only occur when the histogram reaches zero, so the histogram must peak and start shrinking before any crossover is possible. Reading the histogram does not replace the crossover. It tells you the crossover is coming, which is usually enough time to tighten a stop or scale out.
The histogram peaks and contracts several sessions before the crossover completes. The bars turn first, the lines follow.
MACD Divergence: The Early Warning Signal
MACD divergence appears when price and the indicator disagree about the strength of a move. Bearish divergence forms when price prints a higher high but the MACD line or histogram prints a lower high: a new price extreme with less momentum behind it. Bullish divergence is the reverse, price making a lower low while the indicator makes a higher low, meaning selling pressure is thinning.
This fires earlier than a crossover for a structural reason. Divergence compares two swings, so it can be identified at the second swing high while the MACD line is still well above the signal line. The crossover needs the gap between the lines to close completely.
Two limits are worth stating plainly. Divergence says momentum is weakening, not that a reversal has started, and a strong trend can hold divergence for weeks. It becomes tradeable only when price confirms it, typically by breaking the swing low between the two highs.
Bearish divergence: price makes a higher high while the indicator makes a lower one. The signal becomes tradeable only when price breaks the swing low between the two highs.
When MACD Works and When It Fails
The case for the indicator rests on real testing. Using 60 years of London Stock Exchange FT30 data, Chong and Ng found that MACD and RSI rules beat buy-and-hold in most cases they examined. A follow-up extending the same rules to five other developed markets found significant abnormal returns in only two of them, the Milan Comit General and the S&P/TSX Composite. Genuine evidence, and also a warning against treating it as universal.
The case against is equally documented. A backtest across Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 constituents from 2015 to 2021 found the win rate of a MACD-only strategy below 50 percent, improving only when the indicator was paired with another momentum measure such as RSI. In foreign exchange, research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis documents that simple technical rules on dollar exchange rates delivered positive risk-adjusted returns through the 1970s and 1980s before those returns were extinguished as the rules became widely known.
Regime decides the outcome. In a trend the histogram expands, crossovers persist, and the lag costs entry price but not direction. In a range both lines sit near zero, the histogram flips sign constantly, and every crossover is a small loss. If the MACD line is hovering around zero, the indicator has nothing to say.
Default Settings (12, 26, 9) and When to Change Them
The defaults come from Appel's original work on daily equity charts and have never been recalibrated by most platforms. A study of Nikkei 225 futures from 2011 to 2019 found the traditional settings produced negative performance on that market, while optimised parameters produced significant positive returns across a simulation of more than nineteen thousand variants. The defaults are not broken; they are one arbitrary choice among many.
Shorter settings react faster and suit lower timeframes at the cost of more false signals; longer settings smooth more and suit position trading. Test any change on the instrument and timeframe you actually trade, because the same study found optimal values differ by market.
MACD is a lagging indicator with a leading component. The crossover confirms what has already happened, the histogram shows the change while it is still forming, and divergence can flag exhaustion before either. Trade the confirmation if you want fewer signals and accept a worse price. Watch the histogram if you want warning. What you should not do is treat all three as the same signal, because the value of the tool sits in the gap between when they fire.
Tags: MACD · technicalindicators · crypto · momentum · divergence
Long
UK Oil / Brent : Is a Pullback Around the Corner?TVC:UKOIL
🛢️ UK Oil Near a Major Resistance: Is a Pullback Around the Corner? ⚠️
UK Oil continues to respect its bullish market structure, consistently printing higher highs (HHs) and maintaining strong upward momentum.
However, price is now approaching a major trendline resistance near the 109 level—a zone that could determine the next significant move.
🔍 Technical Outlook
The prevailing trend remains bullish, but momentum traders should closely monitor price behavior as it tests this long-term resistance.
📌 Key Resistance: 109 (Trendline Resistance)
A decisive breakout above this level would reinforce the bullish trend. However, if price begins to lose momentum, the probability of a corrective move increases.
⚠️ Watch for Hourly Bearish Divergence
One of the most important signals to monitor is a bearish divergence on the hourly timeframe.
If momentum indicators fail to confirm new price highs while UK Oil tests the 109 resistance, it could signal buyer exhaustion and increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.
🎯 Potential Correction Zone
Should a bearish divergence develop and resistance hold, the next technical downside target lies within the:
📍 90–88 Demand Zone
This area could act as a strong support region where buyers may step in, offering a potential opportunity for trend continuation if bullish price action returns.
📊 My View
The broader trend remains bullish, but price is approaching a high-confluence resistance zone where risk management becomes increasingly important.
✅ Break above 109: Strengthens the bullish continuation case.
⚠️ Hourly bearish divergence at resistance: Raises the probability of a healthy correction toward 90–88 before the next major rally.
As always, let price confirm the next move rather than anticipating it.
Do you expect UK Oil to break above 109, or will this resistance trigger the next corrective phase? Share your analysis below! 👇
🔖 Hashtags
#UKOil #BrentCrude #OilMarket #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #TrendAnalysis #HigherHighs #BearishDivergence #TrendlineResistance #SupportAndResistance #SwingTrading #MomentumTrading #ChartAnalysis #TradingIdeas #MarketStructure #Breakout #Correction #Fibonacci #MarketOutlook #CommodityTrading #WiSHFundManagement
Yanbu National PetroChem : Is the Next Leg Up Forming ?TADAWUL:2290
📈 EMA 200 Retest + Bullish Divergence: Is the Next Leg Up Forming?
Price is now approaching the 200-week EMA at 34.23—a level that has historically acted as a major decision zone.
Looking at previous price behavior, the asset has repeatedly struggled to sustain above the 200-week EMA and experienced significant pullbacks around:
🔹 July 2023
🔹 October 2024
🔹 September 2025
🔹 April 2026
However, the current setup is showing some important differences.
The weekly chart has formed a bullish divergence, followed by a strong recovery. From the previous week's high, price advanced approximately 43%—while the weekly low-to-high measurement represents a total move of nearly 61%.
Following that advance, price once again failed to sustain above the 200-week EMA and entered a corrective phase, eventually declining toward 29.
This level is particularly significant as it represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone of the major swing from 24 to 38.7—a classic discounted accumulation area.
💡 Why this setup is interesting:
In my experience, the combination of:
✅ Bullish weekly divergence
✅ Formation of a higher low
✅ Price holding above the 200-week EMA
✅ A confirmed discounted Fibonacci retracement
✅ Positive market structure
can create a powerful confluence for the next potential expansion phase.
Using the Fibonacci Extension tool, the initial upside projections currently point toward:
🎯 43
🎯 52
These levels represent the first major upside objectives if the bullish structure remains intact and price successfully sustains above the key EMA 200 zone.
📌 The key question now is not whether price can rally—but whether it can finally sustain above the 200-week EMA.
📌 In case of rejection from Ema200, price may reverse towards 27-26 price zone.
A successful breakout and hold could significantly strengthen the bullish continuation case.
⚠️ As always, this is a technical analysis perspective—not financial advice. Key support and invalidation levels should be monitored closely.
#TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BullishDivergence #EMA200 #Fibonacci #FibonacciRetracement #FibonacciExtension #HigherLow #MarketStructure #SwingTrading #TrendAnalysis #StockMarket #TradingIdeas #TradingView #Investing #TechnicalTrading #Breakout #BullishSetup #MomentumTrading #LongTermInvesting #TradingStrategy 
Long
Gold: Watching the Next ResistanceThe chart may look a little busy at first, but there are actually only three indicators here.
This is the Gold 3H chart.
Price has moved above the light blue Daily Magic Diagonal, so for me the main direction is still up. Since price has moved out of the daily range, this diagonal can now act as support.
Right now, price is trying to break above the middle blue diagonal, which represents the middle of the weekly range. If price breaks and holds above it, I’ll be watching the next resistance — the red Weekly Magic Diagonal around 4070.
If price also manages to hold above the grey diagonal, which represents the middle of the monthly range, and then breaks out of the weekly range above the red diagonal, the targets could be much higher. But we’ll see that later. First, price needs to get through these resistance levels.
On the 3H chart, I also have a divergence from my TRIX Chart Divergence indicator. The divergence is visible in the oscillator and is also marked directly on the price chart — I circled both areas.
We also had a positive buy volume signal from Volume Spike Levels. The candle is marked with the box on the chart.
So for now, I’m watching for a possible move higher. Let’s see how these signals play out.
All three indicators used here — Magic Diagonals, TRIX Chart Divergence and Volume Spike Levels — are available in my profile. Long 
I got stopped on gold two weeks ago. I'm buying it againXAU/USD, long swing setup (1D)
THE SETUP
Gold has now bounced off the same floor three times. The two clean daily lows print at 3,959.08 and 3,960.28, one dollar and twenty cents apart, with a third test near 3,963 in late June. Price has drifted up to just above 4,020 through the session, so this is a limit order back into the base rather than a chase.
The tell is momentum. On the first test of the base RSI read 30.43. On the second test, at effectively the identical price, it read 36.02. Sellers reached the same floor with meaningfully less force. That is textbook bullish divergence, and it is the difference between a level that is being defended and a level that is about to break.
Be clear about what this is: a counter-trend long. Gold is down roughly 28% from its January record and the daily trend is unambiguously lower. I am taking the long side only because the reversal structure at this specific level is explicit rather than a hunch. If 3,930 gives way, I am wrong, and I will post that here rather than let it disappear.
I should also say plainly: I was stopped on gold two weeks ago, long from 4,130 with a stop at 4,078. That call sits in my public scorecard as a loss. This is a second attempt roughly 160 dollars lower, at an actual tested base rather than mid-air, and that is the entire difference between the two.
CONFLUENCES (6 of 8)
Double bottom, lows 3,959.08 and 3,960.28, plus a third test near 3,963
Entry sits on a level defended three separate times
Bullish RSI divergence across matched lows (30.43 into 36.02)
Central bank bid is structural, not tactical (below)
Price trades under the World Gold Council H2 fair value estimate near 4,100
Clean structural invalidation, RR 2.2 / 3.6 / 5.4
Not claiming: the higher timeframe trend is against me, and I am not pretending otherwise.
FUNDAMENTALS
The floor under this market is official-sector demand, and it is not price sensitive. The PBoC added 14.93 tonnes in June, its 20th consecutive month of buying and its largest single month since 2023, and it did that into a historic quarterly decline. Central banks have averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes of net purchases a year since 2022, absorbing something like 20 to 25% of annual mine supply. That bid runs on decade-long reserve mandates, not on the daily tape.
The other side of the ledger is real yields, and they are the reason gold is down here at all. The 30 year Treasury is pushing 4.902%, and markets price roughly 53% odds of a Fed hike in September. FOMC lands July 29, inside this trade. A hawkish statement lifts real yields and threatens the base directly. That is the specific risk to this idea, and it is why the stop sits where it sits rather than somewhere more comfortable.
TRADE PLAN
Entry zone: 3,975 to 4,000 (limit, buy the dip back into the base)
Stop loss: 3,930 (below the 3,959 double-bottom floor)
TP1: 4,115 (the shelf both base candles were rejected at, 2.2R)
TP2: 4,195 (July swing high, 3.6R)
TP3: 4,300 (upper edge of the 3,895 to 4,305 fair value band, 5.4R)
Invalidation: a daily close below 3,930 kills it. No second guessing, no averaging down.
Every call I publish goes in the public scorecard, wins and losses both, including the gold loss above.
So: is that 3,960 floor central banks quietly absorbing supply, or is it a shelf waiting to break on a hawkish Fed next week? Tell me which below.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk. Long 
Long
BTCUSDT 2022 | Lesson Learnt from Wrong Low IdentifiedBINANCE:BTCUSDT
📚 One Lesson I Wish I Had Understood Earlier
Back in 2022, I began my technical analysis journey under @Trad3WithFaraz. At that time, Harmonic Patterns felt overwhelming, and I struggled to fully understand their significance.
What I failed to appreciate then was a simple yet powerful concept:
Many harmonic reversal patterns complete around the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level.
(later I learnt that " MANY " and not the " ONLY ")
Looking back at a chart I shared on 26 November 2022, I realized I was incredibly close to identifying a major reversal. The market had already provided the clues—I simply hadn't completed the learning process or revised the concepts thoroughly enough to recognize them.
May be a funny thing, 0.786 was not even looking aesthetic as well, so I opt for 0.886.
Experience has taught me that knowledge only becomes valuable when it's understood, practiced, and consistently applied.
Today, my trading approach has evolved. I place significant emphasis on the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, which has become one of the core areas I monitor for high-probability setups. While every strategy has its limitations, these levels have helped me stay more disciplined and objective in my market analysis.
📌 Key Takeaways
✅ Never stop revising what you learn.
✅ The market often rewards patience more than prediction.
✅ Mastering a few concepts is far more valuable than knowing many superficially.
✅ Consistency comes from following a repeatable process—not chasing every move.
Every chart is a lesson, and every mistake is tuition. Keep learning, keep refining, and trust the process.
What was the one trading concept that completely changed your perspective? Share your experience below. 👇
Educational content only. Not financial advice.
Education 
Long
Indicator Divergence and Convergence Reveal Professional TradersDivergence and convergence indicators can help traders identify changes in price momentum and determine which market participants may be controlling price.
For the most responsive analysis, use an exponential moving average (EMA) or another front-weighted moving average. Avoid simple moving averages, which can lag too far behind current price action.
Begin with one primary indicator and one subordinate indicator. Primary indicators analyze price, volume, or both, while subordinate indicators include moving averages, Linear Regression Lines, and other tools applied to the primary indicator. Adding more indicators does not necessarily improve the analysis and can create conflicting signals.
More advanced, semi-professional, and professional traders may also experiment with combining two primary indicators.
Your charting software should be configured for your trading style, holding period, and risk tolerance. Whenever possible, include technical indicators that lead price rather than merely lag behind it. This is where divergence and convergence analysis can be especially useful.
Divergence occurs when two indicators move away from one another. Convergence occurs when they move toward one another. Each pattern provides different information about momentum, price direction, and whether professional traders, smaller funds, or retail traders may be influencing the stock.
Learning to recognize divergence and convergence on a stock chart can help you evaluate who controls price, anticipate potential changes in momentum, and make better-informed trading decisions.
Education
CNXU - Bulls Challenge Resistance!Conexeu Sciences continues reporting progress across its regenerative-tissue platform, including recent preclinical, manufacturing, and regulatory-development activities.🧬
📌 From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:CNXU has remained overall bearish, trading within the falling wedge pattern marked in red.
However , downside momentum appears to be weakening.
While price continued forming lower lows, the MACD recorded two bullish divergence signals by forming higher lows. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is losing strength and serves as an early alert that a potential bullish reversal may be developing.📈
📊 Volume has also supported this observation. Trading activity increased around the recent lows while the divergences were forming, showing stronger market participation near the lower boundary of the wedge.👀
🎯 What’s Next?
For bulls to take control and confirm a broader momentum shift, CNXU needs a decisive breakout and close above the highlighted blue structure around $11.50.
Until that confirmation occurs, the falling wedge and the broader bearish structure remain active.
If buyers successfully reclaim the blue resistance zone, the first bullish objective would be the current all-time high around $18.50.
A confirmed break above that all-time high would move CNXU into price discovery, where no established historical resistance would remain above price.📈
📌From a fundamental perspective, investors will likely continue monitoring the company’s lead CXU™ wound-care program , its planned FDA 510(k) submission process, the completed preclinical P.R.O.O.F. study, and the ongoing development of its investigational B.R.E.A.S.T.™ bioregenerative matrix platform.🔬
In brief, CNXU remains technically bearish below the $11.50 structure. However, the falling wedge, bullish MACD divergences, and increased volume near the recent lows suggest that selling momentum may be weakening. A confirmed breakout above resistance is still required before bulls can claim control.✅
⚠️Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Technical and fundamental conditions can change, and no outcome is guaranteed. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr 
Long
Long 
GBPNZD - Bullish Breakout Meets Weekly Resistance!GBPNZD recently broke above the red descending channel, invalidating the previous bearish structure. The breakout was further supported by recent positive UK economic data, which added strength to GBP and helped drive the breakout.
Since then, price has been moving inside the blue ascending channel on the H4 timeframe and has now reached a major weekly resistance area, making the current zone worth monitoring for a potential reaction.
⭕A more conservative approach would be to wait for a break below the green trigger area, then look for sell setups on its retest as additional confirmation. At the same time, a developing bearish divergence is adding more confluence to the bearish scenario and may serve as an early indication that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken.
⭕However, if price continues to hold above the green trigger area and breaks the current weekly resistance, the focus shifts toward the next resistance zone, where price may face another potential rejection.
The coming price action around this resistance area may provide a clearer indication of whether the recent breakout is ready for a pullback, or if buyers still have enough momentum to extend the current bullish move.
⚠️* Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice. *
Rayan Nasser
#GBPNZD #GBP #NZD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading #MarketStructure NNBR: Multi-Year Base + Bullish Divergence ClusterNNBR: Multi-Year Base + Bullish Divergence Cluster
NNBR is showing an interesting weekly turnaround setup after a long multi-year decline and compression phase.
This is not a confirmed breakout yet. I would treat it as a conditional long setup that still needs confirmation above the descending structure.
What I see on the weekly chart
1. Multi-year compression
After the large historical moves in 2014–2018, the stock entered a long decline and then started building a base.
From 2022 to 2026, price has been moving near the lower part of the historical range. This kind of compression can become interesting when price stops making clean downside continuation and starts reacting from the same lower zone multiple times.
2. Bullish divergence cluster
Several bullish RSI divergence signals appeared near the lower part of the base.
This means price continued to pressure the lows, but RSI was no longer confirming the same downside momentum.
For me, this is not a buy signal by itself. It is an early warning that selling momentum may be weakening.
3. Descending trendline
The key level is the descending weekly structure.
A clean breakout and hold above this trendline would be the first important confirmation that the long-term downtrend pressure is weakening.
Without that breakout, the setup is still only a potential reversal attempt.
4. Volume reaction
There is also a visible volume reaction near the current base area.
For a weekly turnaround setup, I want to see volume supporting the move. A breakout without volume would be weaker. A breakout with expanding volume would make the setup more interesting.
Possible plan
This is how I would read the setup:
Aggressive idea:
– early long near the base / reclaim area
– only if price continues to hold above the lower structure
– higher risk because the breakout is not fully confirmed yet
Safer idea:
– wait for a weekly close above the descending trendline
– then look for a hold / retest of the breakout zone
– confirmation is more important than catching the exact bottom
Invalidation
The setup becomes much weaker if price loses the lower base area and fails back under the current structure.
For me, the invalidation zone is below the base. If price breaks down with follow-through, the reversal thesis is no longer valid.
Potential upside zones
I would not treat the upper green box as an immediate target. On a weekly chart, it is better to think in zones:
– first reaction zone: 5.00–6.00
– next resistance zone: 8.00–10.00
– larger historical zone: 16.00–20.00
– extended scenario: 30.00+ only if momentum fully returns
Main idea
Bullish divergence shows that downside momentum may be weakening.
The multi-year base shows that sellers may be losing control.
But the trendline still needs to break.
For me, the key is simple:
Base must hold.
Weekly structure must break.
Volume should confirm.
Until then, this remains a high-risk conditional turnaround setup.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. 
Long
Navigating Markets During Record-Low U.S. Consumer Sentiment US consumer sentiment has registered its lowest point in history.
Looking closer, its last three readings were below the 50 level: 49.8 in April, 44.8 in May, and 49.5 in June.
Since the 1950s, consumer sentiment has stayed generally above the 80 level around 45% of the time, and above the 100 level another 45% of the time.
What about the remaining 10% of the time?
Whenever it drops below the 80 level, we historically see various economic crises.
Today, it stays well below the 70 level, so what does this mean? In this post, I will share how I am managing these emerging risks and how to determine whether a deeper correction in the US stock market is approaching.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Short
Long
Education
