EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Triggers Outsized Decline This chart shows the EW Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD) with the ATR Stop & Reverse (ATR-SAR) indicator (red/green) and the price-relative in the indicator window (RSPD/RSP ratio). The ATR-SAR switches when there is a 4 x ATR(22) move in either direction. RSPD broke below the ATR-SAR and this signals and outsized decline. This reverses the bullish signal from early November, which is when RSPD surged above the ATR-SAR. The indicator window shows the RSPD:RSP ratio moving below its January low,
In-depth trading ideas
Bullish Regime or Cyclical Relief Rally ?The EW Consumer Discretionary to Consumer Staples ratio can provide insight into the specific stocks that are driving equity outperformance. Typically, in "risk on" regimes the Discretionary sector will outperform the Staples sector. Conversely, when investors get "defensive" Staples will tend to attract a greater share.
Here, we see that this Relative Strength ratio is actually BELOW the levels experienced in January 2018. Early 2018 was a fairly bullish time in the stock market, and ser
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Defensive Sectors outperformingThe use of Equal Weight ETFs such as Consumer Discretionary (RCD) relative to Consumer Staples (RHS) can yield meaningful clues about the underpinnings of the stock market. Presently, this RCD/RHS relative strength ratio is below the levels seen in the Q4 2018 corrective period (red line in graph). This measure, along with other signals such as an elevated VIX, supports those arguing that we are in a "Risk Off" or "defensive" equity environment. Until the relationship breaks out of this zone,
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Risk Gauge Reaches ResistanceConsumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples remains in "risk off" mode.
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Long RCD/XLY spread (Market Cap Weighted vs Even Weighted ETFs)When the market melted down consumer discretionary ETFs rotated towards market cap weighted diversification. This trade targets regression towards the mean while being relatively delta neutral.
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Risk offEW Discretionary vs. EW Staples reaches a new low. Indicating an increased risk off environment in stocks
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Consumer discretionary MACD cross on weekly chartThe consumer discretionary (i.e. retail) sector has made a bullish MACD cross on its weekly chart. It's also above signal line on the daily chart. This suggests the sector is entering a new medium-term uptrend. Now should be a good time to buy and hold the sector.
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