PANIC LOW 11/16 2026 f 20 from covid low 3/23/20 spiral The chart is part of my spiral turn work .I see the low in the coming panic on 11/16 it will mark the second low the first is 10/16 or it is the point in which real bad things will occur and we should see chaos I feel it will be due to the events of issues with the timing of the election !!best of trades WAVETIMER !
In-depth trading ideas
SPY will go down from hereDon't get fooled by the market makers here. This bounce is nothing but a relief rally. In other words it holds no real value.
Massive put walls underneath.
Magnets will pull the price down.
9d fear is back down, creates the fuel for the drop.
The sell is not over yet, we haven't seen capitulation yet.
SPY Losing Momentum - Approaching a Larger CorrectionSPY has spent the past several months trending higher within a well-defined ascending channel dating back to the April 2025 low. Price recently tested the upper boundary of that channel near 775 and has since reversed, printing consecutive lower closes down to the current 764 level. This kind of rejection at established trendline resistance is a classic signal that the advance may be losing steam in the near term.
More notably, the move to new highs was not confirmed by momentum. RSI(14) formed a lower high even as price posted a higher high — a textbook bearish divergence that suggests buying pressure has been fading beneath the surface, even as headline price action stayed strong. The RSI moving average has also flattened out just above the midline (50.31), reinforcing the picture of momentum stalling rather than accelerating.
Price is also extended relative to trend. The 200-day SMA sits at 714.23, roughly 50 points below spot — a wide deviation that has historically preceded some degree of mean reversion.
Macro backdrop adds to the case. Inflation data has come in hotter than expected in recent months (CPI ~3.4% YoY, core PCE running higher still), and market pricing ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting has shifted meaningfully — from expectations of a rate cut toward real odds of a hike. A hawkish surprise or hold-with-hawkish-guidance from the Fed would be a logical catalyst to accelerate a pullback in an index that is already technically stretched and showing weakening momentum.
Target: 730
This level aligns with the midline of the ascending channel and with a prior consolidation shelf from earlier in the summer, making it a reasonable near-term downside objective over the coming weeks. A break below 730 would put the 200-day SMA (714) back in play as the next area of interest. www.tradingview.com AMEX:SPY
SPY over 765.41 by Sep 25. Graded either wayTwo week call, opened Sep 11: SPY closes back over 765.41 by Sep 25. The number isnt a technical level, its where SPY sat when the call went out. Friday closed 764.29, so right now this is a coin toss and I know it. Invalidation: a daily close under 750 before Sep 25 ends it early as a MISS. On Sep 25 it gets graded here, win or miss, nothing deleted. Thats the whole method: date it, grade it, leave the misses up.
SPY Rejects August 13 Highs —Is a Pullback Due as $780 Call WallAMEX:SPY recently tested the heavy $780 Call Wall, acting as major overhead resistance and capping immediate upside potential.
Gamma Flip Active: Price action has shifted into the Gamma Flip Zone. In negative or zero-gamma regimes, market makers switch from buying dips to selling into weakness, accelerating volatility.
VIX Bottoming: VIX compressed to the $14 level—a historical extreme that frequently marks exhaustion in equity rallies—and has now printed a bullish confirmation candle off the lows.
Pretty Obvious Expanded Flat Forming (A Trap?)It's a rare thing to see expanded flat setups look show obvious, if this were an individual stock I'd be hesistant, but in terms of the S&P 500 Index, safe to say a local top is forming and a steep rapid correction (10-15%) is in the cards on the near term, expecting a bump up on Monday Tuesday. Looking for price to spike specifically past $786 on SPY before aggressive sellers will show up.
SPY Sept. 14–18: 760 Support vs. 767 Resistance Sets Up the Week
SPY enters the new week around 764 after bouncing strongly from the 756 area but failing to extend through the recent 766–767 resistance zone. The Daily chart still shows a broader bullish structure, but momentum has cooled after the rejection near 779. The 1H chart is now consolidating just underneath resistance, while the GEX map places SPY directly between the 760 HVL and a cluster of call levels around 765–770.
For me, 760 to 767 is the main decision range for Sept. 14–18. Holding above 760 keeps the recovery attempt alive. A confirmed break above 767 opens another test of 770 and potentially the Daily highs. Losing 760 shifts attention back toward 755 and 750.
Daily Structure
I start with the Daily because the larger trend is still important here. SPY has been in a broader uptrend since the spring lows and continued making higher highs into the recent peak around 779.37. The larger structure has not broken, but the last several sessions show that momentum is no longer moving straight higher.
After reaching the upper 770s, SPY pulled back and is now trading around 764. The important Daily support I see is near 755–756, which lines up with the recent consolidation floor. Below that, the next major structural support sits much lower around the 730 area, with another important zone around the low 720s.
The Daily chart therefore still favors the larger bullish trend as long as 755–756 holds, but SPY needs to reclaim the upper part of the range before I would call the next leg higher confirmed. The first major Daily resistance remains approximately 779–780.
1H Confirmation
The 1H chart gives a clearer picture of the near-term battle. SPY sold off into approximately 756.64 and then recovered sharply, reaching about 766.53 before pulling back toward 764.
That recovery is constructive, but price is now sitting directly underneath a resistance area around 765–767. RSI has recovered into the low 60s, which tells me momentum has improved, but it is no longer accelerating the way it was during the initial rebound.
The important short-term support is around 760–762. If SPY can continue holding above that area, the rebound structure remains intact and buyers can make another attempt at 765–767. If 760 fails, however, the 1H structure begins weakening again and the recent bounce starts looking more like a temporary recovery rather than a reversal.
GEX Positioning
The 1H GEX map fits the technical structure very well.
SPY is around 764.5, with the HVL near 760. Above price, there is a dense group of call-related levels around 765, 766 and 767, followed by another important level around 770.
That cluster explains why the 765–767 area matters so much. It isn't only visible resistance on the price chart; the options positioning is also concentrated there.
Below price, the map shows the first important downside level around 760, followed by approximately 755, 750 and 745.
The current GEX reading is positive. I don't interpret positive gamma as automatically bullish. Positive gamma often encourages more controlled, mean-reverting movement and can make price rotate between nearby levels instead of immediately trending.
The snapshot also shows puts at roughly 62.5%, which tells me traders are carrying meaningful downside exposure. That does not guarantee SPY falls, but it reinforces why I would respect a break below 760 if it happens.
How I Put It Together
The three charts are relatively well aligned.
The Daily says the larger bullish trend is still alive, but momentum has cooled after the rejection near 779. The 1H says buyers successfully defended the 756 area but are now running into resistance around 765–767. The GEX map confirms that 760 is an important pivot underneath price while 765–770 contains a heavy cluster of upside levels.
So I enter the week neutral-to-bullish above 760, but I want confirmation before expecting another run toward the highs.
The middle of the range around 763–765 is not where I want to make a strong directional prediction. The better information comes from seeing whether SPY can break 767 or lose 760.
Bullish Scenario
For the bullish case, I first want SPY to remain above 760–762 and then reclaim the 765–767 resistance cluster.
A confirmed break above 767 would put 770 in play. If buyers can also hold above 770, the 1H structure becomes considerably stronger and I would start looking back toward the Daily resistance in the upper 770s.
The larger breakout level remains approximately 779–780. A clean move through that area would represent a new challenge of the recent highs and potentially restart the larger Daily trend.
The key for me is acceptance. A quick spike above 767 or 770 that immediately fails would not be enough. I want to see those levels turn into support.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario begins if SPY repeatedly rejects 765–767 and then loses 760.
A break below the 760 HVL would weaken the recent 1H recovery and shift my attention toward 755. That area is particularly important because it also sits near the recent swing low around 756.64.
If 755 breaks decisively, the next GEX level is approximately 750. Below that, 745 becomes the next major downside area.
A sustained break under 755 would also start putting more pressure on the Daily structure, because the market would be losing the support that has held the current consolidation together.
Options Outlook
For calls, I prefer seeing SPY hold above 760 and then break through 767. Above 767, I would watch 770 first, followed by the upper 770s if momentum expands.
For puts, I prefer either a strong rejection from the 765–767 area or, more importantly, a confirmed break below 760. Below 760, 755 becomes the first target, followed by 750 if selling continues.
Because this GEX snapshot is positive, I would be careful buying short-dated options while SPY remains trapped between 760 and 767. That environment can create plenty of intraday movement without producing a sustained directional move.
Conclusion
SPY enters Sept. 14–18 with the larger Daily trend still intact, but the market is now sitting at a short-term decision point. The 1H recovery from 756 has been strong enough to stabilize price, but buyers have not yet proven they can break the 765–767 resistance area.
The GEX map reinforces the same structure, with the 760 HVL underneath price and a dense cluster of call levels from roughly 765 through 770.
For me, 760 and 767 define the opening setup for the week.
Above 767, I watch 770 and then 779–780.
Below 760, I watch 755, 750 and potentially 745.
Until SPY leaves that range, I would rather trade the confirmation than predict the breakout.
Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
SPY Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 761.69.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 774.43 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPY Pre-Market Prep — Tuesday, Sept. 15SPY briefly gapped outside the scenarios I mapped last night, but premarket has already pulled price back toward the battlefield.
That matters because today isn’t just about the gap. It’s about whether the market can accept outside the existing structure or gets dragged right back into negotiation.
The macro backdrop is still ugly:
10Y Treasury yield > 5%, its highest level since 2007
Brent crude around $107
WTI around $103
Markets now pricing roughly a 92–94% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike
FOMC begins its two-day meeting today
Tech is under additional pressure from renewed AI-growth/safety concerns
That combination keeps pressure on growth stocks and makes me cautious about trusting any early bullish move.
Today’s SPY battlefield
759–760 is my first pivot.
If SPY can hold above it and start building structure, I’m watching:
762 → 763 → 765–766
That 765–766 area is still heavy resistance. A clean move through it would be the first thing that makes me take a stronger bullish continuation seriously.
Above that:
768 is the next major decision area.
And if the market somehow completely shrugs off oil, yields and FOMC risk, 774 remains the bigger upside Projected AOA.
On the downside:
758 is critical.
If SPY loses 758 and starts accepting underneath it, then the bearish scenarios begin gaining serious weight again.
Below that, I’d be watching the 756–754 area, with a deeper move possible if yields continue pushing higher and the market starts pricing a more hawkish Fed path.
What I’m watching for
Bullish trade idea:
Hold/reclaim 760, build structure above it, then use 762/763 as the next confirmation ladder.
Bearish trade idea:
Lose 758, fail the reclaim, and begin building below yesterday’s lower structure.
No-trade idea:
If SPY spends the morning whipping between 758 and 762, that’s negotiation. I’m not forcing a directional trade just because price is moving.
That third scenario may be the most important one today.
We are less than 24 hours from a Fed decision that the market is heavily pricing in already. That can create a lot of movement without producing clean structure.
Bigger picture
The thing I’m watching most is whether the market is beginning to front-run tomorrow’s FOMC resolution or simply repositioning ahead of it.
The 10-year breaking 5% is not background noise anymore. It is one of the most important inputs on the board right now.
And remember:
A hike by itself is now increasingly expected.
The real reaction tomorrow will depend on:
decision + outlook + projections + Powell + yields + oil + price structure
So today I’m keeping it simple.
760 = pivot
762–763 = repair
765–766 = major resistance
758 = breakdown line
Everything else is noise until price proves otherwise.
Preparation > Prediction.
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:15 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Previous: 12.0K
8:30 AM | Empire State Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 14.8 | Previous: 20.6
4:30 PM | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ADPEmployment #EmpireStateManufacturing #APIWeekly
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Thursday, September 17, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels for Thursday, September 17, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 31.3 | Previous: 47.4
8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 207K | Previous: 206K
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #PhillyFed #Manufacturing #UnemploymentClaims
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Core Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: -0.3%
8:30 AM | Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: -0.6%
2:00 PM | Federal Funds Rate | Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 3.75%
2:00 PM | FOMC Economic Projections
2:00 PM | FOMC Statement
2:30 PM | FOMC Press Conference
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #RetailSales #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates
SPY — FOMC Week: The First Move May Not Be the Real MoveSPY enters one of the most important catalyst weeks on the calendar sitting inside a very tight 15-minute battlefield.
This chart is built on 15-minute candles, because I want to focus on the broader intraday structure rather than trying to predict every reaction candle around the Fed.
And as always:
The colored paths are illustrations for visual learners.
They are not candle-by-candle predictions, they are not intended to show the exact timing of a move, and they are definitely not trade signals.
What matters is the behavior around the decision areas.
Why this FOMC deserves respect
I went back and reviewed several of the most recent FOMC periods, and there is an important lesson here.
The April FOMC was followed by roughly a 5%+ sustained rally.
The June FOMC ultimately led into roughly a 3% decline.
And then July gave us probably the best example of why trying to trade the first Fed reaction can be dangerous.
SPY initially rallied, then reversed and sold off significantly during the same session.
If you assumed the first move determined direction, you were wrong.
If you assumed the later selloff determined direction, you still did not have the final answer.
SPY ultimately reversed and rallied nearly 6% over roughly the following two weeks.
That does not mean every FOMC creates a sustained trend.
What it does tell us is that recent Fed meetings have produced meaningful multi-session repricing, and the first reaction has not always revealed the direction of that move.
That distinction matters this week.
FOMC reaction ≠ FOMC resolution.
I do not need to predict what happens at 2:01 PM Wednesday.
I want to see what the market actually accepts after the volatility.
The current battlefield
SPY is sitting inside a dense cluster of decision areas.
$762–$763
This is the first important downside structural area.
If sellers push through it but buyers immediately reclaim it, that is very different from sustained acceptance underneath it.
$764–$766
This is the primary negotiation zone right now.
We have PDL, several Projected Areas of Agreement, prior structure, and PDH all packed into a relatively small area.
That alone tells me this is likely to be a difficult place for price to move cleanly through without real conviction.
$768
This is the first area where I would begin viewing the move as something more meaningful than simply repairing weakness.
Acceptance above $768 starts changing the battlefield.
$774
This is the larger upside Projected AOA and the major destination in the Green scenario.
On the downside, the next significant demand area sits around $757–$758.
If that fails, the chart becomes considerably more vulnerable.
🟡 Yellow — Negotiation
This is currently the scenario I believe makes the most sense heading into FOMC.
Monday and Tuesday could easily be dominated by:
gap → repair → rejection → rotation → repeat
The market is sitting inside a dense structural cluster while waiting for a major catalyst.
That is exactly the kind of environment where trying to force direction can become expensive.
Yellow represents continued negotiation roughly between the lower support structure and the $765–$766 resistance area.
I deliberately end this scenario around Friday.
Could SPY continue sideways into next week?
Of course.
But after a major FOMC decision, updated projections, the press conference, and several days of digestion, I think the probability of the market simply remaining trapped in this exact battlefield begins declining.
So Yellow is primarily a this-week scenario.
It is not my preferred expectation beyond that.
🟢 Green — Acceptance Higher
Green is not:
“Fed candle goes up.”
That is extremely important.
July showed us exactly why.
SPY could rally after the decision, sell off violently, and still eventually produce a bullish multi-session resolution.
Or it could initially sell off and then reclaim the entire move later.
What defines Green is not the first reaction.
What defines Green is eventual acceptance above the battlefield.
For me that means:
$765–$766 reclaimed
then $768 accepted
then buyers continue building structure above it.
If that occurs, $774 becomes the next major structural area I care about.
At that point we are no longer talking about a one-hour Fed reaction.
We are talking about a potential post-FOMC repricing campaign.
That is why the Green path extends beyond this week.
🔴 Red — Structural Failure
Red begins gaining weight if SPY loses the $762–$763 area and cannot repair it.
The next major test then becomes the $757–$758 demand area.
If that fails as well, I would view it as a much more meaningful structural deterioration rather than simply an FOMC volatility event.
That opens the possibility of a deeper sustained move.
Again, the first move Wednesday does not have to tell us Red is happening.
SPY could spike higher first.
It could whip violently in both directions.
What matters is where the market eventually finds acceptance.
That is why the Red path, like Green, extends beyond Friday.
What I am actually watching
I am not trying to predict whether the Fed causes a green candle or a red candle.
I am watching for:
Acceptance or rejection around $762–$763
Whether $765–$766 continues acting as a ceiling
Whether $768 can be reclaimed and held
Whether the $757–$758 demand area becomes necessary
Whether Wednesday’s reaction survives Thursday and Friday
Whether the market begins building structure outside the current battlefield
That last one is especially important.
A violent move means very little to me if price immediately returns to the same range.
A true repricing should eventually create new structure.
My current read
Right now, Yellow makes the most sense into the Fed.
Not because I expect the market to be boring.
Quite the opposite.
I think we could see a lot of movement while still making very little structural progress before Wednesday.
After FOMC, though, I become increasingly interested in whether that volatility turns into a sustained Green or Red campaign.
And July gives us the reminder I want everyone to keep in the back of their mind:
The first FOMC move does not have to be the real FOMC move.
There is no prize for being first.
I would rather let the volatility happen, watch the 15-minute structure develop, and respond once the market begins proving what it actually wants to do.
SPY | Weekly Structure | Final Wave 5 Stretch Toward $850-$900Thesis:
SPY remains technically bullish and no major weekly support has been lost. My larger Elliott Wave count suggests we are now entering the final stage of the macro cycle that has been developing for more than six years. I still see room for one final Wave 5 extension, with the $850-$900 area as my primary zone for a potential cycle completion.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- SPY remains above its major long-term moving averages
- The larger Wave IV correction held the long-term structure and price subsequently resumed higher
- Price has now moved above the 1.618 Fib extension around $747
- The next major Fibonacci extension sits around $905
- The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday is the main macro event this week
- Markets are already heavily pricing a 0.25% rate hike
- In my view, the Fed's guidance after the decision matters more than the hike itself
- Oil above $100 and long-term Treasury yields near recent highs remain important macro risks
What I see
- The larger bullish structure remains intact
- Wave IV appears complete and the current advance fits the final Wave V of the larger cycle
- The 1.618 Fib extension around $747 has now been reached and price remains above that area
- The rising 50-week MA around $703 remains the first important dynamic support
- Weekly momentum is elevated but has not yet produced the type of terminal extension I would associate with a completed macro cycle
- The 2.618 Fib extension around $905 provides a natural technical reference for the final Wave V
- I therefore continue to see the $850-$900 area as the most interesting zone for a potential cycle top
What matters now
- The $745-$750 area should now act as first support
- The 50-week MA around $700 remains the more important structural support below
- A normal 0.25% Fed hike would not materially change my technical view by itself
- A more hawkish policy shift and expectations of additional hikes would be much more important
- Rising Treasury yields, persistent energy inflation and broader concerns around the AI cycle are the main risks I am watching
- Until the market starts losing major weekly supports, I see no technical reason to call the cycle complete
Buy / Accumulation zone
- I am not interested in adding broad market exposure around current levels
- In my view, the risk/reward becomes less attractive as the final stage of the cycle develops
- I am currently focusing more on individual companies that have already experienced significant corrections rather than names moving in sync with the index
- The broader long-term technical reset zone sits approximately between $537 and $409
- The area where I would become meaningfully interested in rebuilding broad market exposure is approximately $500-$400
- That would represent roughly a 40%-50% correction from the cycle-top area I am currently tracking
- A correction of that magnitude would give me a very different risk/reward profile than buying during the final Wave 5
Targets
- First support: approximately $745-$750
- Major weekly support: approximately $700
- Primary Wave 5 target zone: approximately $850-$900
- 2.618 Fib extension: approximately $905
- Future long-term accumulation area: approximately $500-$400
Portfolio note
My positioning reflects where I believe we are in the cycle.
I am not trying to squeeze every last percentage point out of stocks that have already moved with the broader market. At this stage I prefer companies that have already gone through meaningful corrections and where I believe the next long-term cycle is beginning earlier.
That does not mean I expect SPY to fall immediately.
My primary scenario still allows for one final stretch higher, potentially into the $850-$900 area. Late-cycle moves can be powerful, particularly if sentiment becomes increasingly euphoric.
What changes for me is the risk/reward.
Once this macro cycle eventually completes, a larger correction toward the $500-$400 region would create the type of broad-market opportunity I am willing to wait for.
For now, the chart remains bullish.
The job is to respect that structure while remaining aware that we are much closer to the end of this cycle than the beginning.
SPY: The Fed Hiked, Is the Market Done Reacting?Last week gave us one of the better examples of why I build scenarios instead of predictions.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, taking the federal-funds target to 3.75%–4.00%. The vote was unanimous. More importantly, the updated projections put the median appropriate year-end 2026 rate at 4.1%, versus a current midpoint of 3.875%. In plain English, the Fed did not tell the market, “we hiked and we’re finished.” The projections leave another increase very much in the conversation.
SPY’s reaction showed why the first move after a major event cannot automatically be treated as the final interpretation. The initial FOMC reaction sold off hard, but equities repaired sharply afterward as oil and Treasury yields backed away from their worst levels. Thursday’s S&P 500 rally coincided with the 10-year yield falling to roughly 4.93% and oil easing. By Friday, however, the 10-year was knocking on 5% again and energy remained volatile. That relationship between oil, yields and equities remains one of the biggest things I’ll be watching this week.
There is a simple reason. The Fed’s problem is inflation, and expensive energy feeds directly into that discussion. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reinforced the hawkish side of the debate Sunday, saying inflation remains too high well beyond just oil and supporting last week’s hike. We also have a very heavy Fed-speaking calendar now that the meeting is behind us, so traders will spend the week trying to determine whether last Wednesday was a one-off adjustment or the beginning of additional tightening.
That is why my Green scenario requires more than SPY simply opening above 763. I want to see price work through the nearby projected Areas of Agreement around 763, 766 and ultimately 768. If SPY can establish itself above 768 while oil and Treasury yields are falling or at least behaving, the battlefield opens considerably. That would make 770 and then the 772–774 area reasonable areas to investigate. The green path drawn on the chart is not a prediction of the exact route price will take. It represents what becomes available if the market continues earning higher levels.
The Yellow scenario remains my slight favorite entering the week. There is an enormous amount for traders to digest, and price is sitting directly inside a dense cluster of structure. Rotation between roughly 760 and 766, potentially including temporary breaks that are quickly reclaimed, would not surprise me at all. That kind of market can look dramatic candle to candle while accomplishing very little over several sessions. If oil and yields send conflicting messages or the headlines keep changing, negotiation is exactly what I would expect.
The Red scenario becomes more compelling if SPY loses 762 and then fails to regain the 760/759/PDL cluster. At that point we are no longer talking about a little post-FOMC noise; price would be accepting below several nearby decision areas. That would put roughly 757–756 into play, with the lower 753 area becoming increasingly relevant if selling begins expanding. I still would not assume a straight-line collapse. Those intermediate AOAs exist for a reason, and each can produce negotiation or rejection.
There is also considerably more happening this week than the chart alone shows.
Monday: August Chicago Fed National Activity Index, followed by the first substantial round of post-FOMC commentary. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to discuss the policy outlook.
Tuesday: Fed speakers including John Williams, Philip Jefferson and Thomas Barkin, plus the 2-year Treasury auction. AutoZone also reports, giving another read on the consumer/auto environment.
Wednesday: S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, several more Fed appearances and the 5-year Treasury auction. With the 10-year hovering near 5%, Treasury demand matters more than usual right now.
Thursday: Probably the biggest headline-risk day. Weekly jobless claims and August new-home sales arrive in the morning, the Treasury sells 7-year notes, Costco and Darden report, and President Trump is scheduled to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. Trade, tariffs, AI, critical minerals, Taiwan and the Iran conflict are all potentially part of that discussion. Preparatory talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng were already underway this weekend.
Friday: August durable-goods orders and the final September University of Michigan consumer-sentiment report. That report deserves extra attention after preliminary sentiment fell to 47.8 and one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. In a market already debating whether the Fed must hike again, inflation expectations matter.
One thing that is not on this week’s calendar is PCE. August Personal Income and Outlays is scheduled for September 30, so this week’s inflation narrative will be driven more by energy, Fed communication, PMIs, consumer expectations and market-based yields than by a fresh PCE print.
Geopolitics also remains impossible to separate from the market right now. The weekend brought another escalation involving Houthi attacks on Riyadh and renewed threats between Iran, the United States and regional allies. That matters to SPY primarily through energy and inflation expectations. If geopolitical risk pushes oil sharply higher again, it makes the Fed’s job harder and creates a natural headwind for the bullish scenario. If diplomacy or improved supply expectations push oil lower, the market has already shown that equities can respond quickly.
So I’m entering Monday without a strong directional prediction.
I have 763 as the immediate fight, 766–768 as the upside proving ground, and 762 → 760 → 759/PDL as the downside ladder that would need to fail before I become meaningfully bearish.
More importantly, I’ll be watching the relationships behind the candles.
SPY up + oil down + yields down? Green becomes much easier to trust.
SPY stuck + oil/yields conflicted + headline uncertainty? Yellow makes perfect sense.
SPY loses structure while oil and yields climb? Red gets much more dangerous.
Last week reminded us that an FOMC announcement can move the market violently without settling the argument. The Fed meeting is over, but its consequences are not.
I’ll be breaking down the major catalysts, Fed comments, oil/yield relationship and any changes to these scenarios in more detail as the week progresses.
For now, I don’t need to predict which path SPY takes.
I need to know what evidence would tell me that it has chosen one.
Preparation > Prediction.
SPY: the weekly/monthly value band to reclaimSPY, NYSE Arca, 15-minute regular-session candles through September 8. Observed September 9 at 08:20 EDT; premarket was near 762.8, below the displayed 765.94 regular-session close. No September 9 RTH candle has formed yet.
VPNM highlights a weekly/monthly high-volume-node overlap around 765.6–766.0. It combines two completed weeks and one completed month; these overlapping histories are not independent confirmations.
If price returns to the band and holds above it, rotation toward the prior 767–768 trading area becomes a scenario to watch. Rejection at the band, or a failed reclaim, would keep price below this prior value reference and weaken that rotation case. The arrows show alternatives, not timing or targets.
Flat boxes use estimated OHLCV volume, not order flow. This is a reference area requiring price confirmation, not proven support.
Not Financial Advice.
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Friday, September 11, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels for Friday, September 11, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Core CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
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0:00 Introduction & Overview
0:10 Rate Hike Expectations & Market Sentiment Data
1:52 Sector Performance & Fear & Greed Index
2:30 Dark Pool Activity & Fed Rate Decision Outlook
3:23 S&P 500 (SPY) Technical Analysis CME_MINI:ES1!
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5:40 Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Rate Sensitivity CRYPTOCAP:BTC
6:43 Tesla (TSLA) Technical Analysis & Resistance Levels
8:17 MAG7 Index Overview
8:57 Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis
9:57 Microsoft (MSFT) Technical Analysis
11:17 Alphabet (GOOGL) Technical Analysis
13:02 Apple (AAPL) Technical Analysis
14:07 NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical Analysis
15:57 Outro & Next Video Preview
September 7-11 SPY Weekly Forecast : Watchout for 776 & 764SPY enters a shortened trading week with US markets closed on Monday for Labor Day. With only four trading sessions, the weekly forecast has less time to develop than a normal five-day week.
The model equilibrium is tightly centered around 769.84-769.95. The main predictive boundaries are 776.22 above and 763.45 below.
Upside Levels
The first major upside test is the Upper Predictive Rail at 776.22.
The first outer level is almost identical at 776.45, making 776.22-776.45 the main upside decision area for the week.
A sustained move above this zone would put 782.72 in focus.
The upper extreme is 789.22 and represents the upper end of the weekly forecast distribution.
Downside Levels
The first downside area is similarly concentrated around 763.45-763.68, where the Lower Predictive Rail and first lower outer level sit very close together.
A sustained break below this area would put 757.18 in focus.
The lower extreme is 750.91.
Weekly Decision Map
Upper Decision Area: 776.22-776.45
Upside Path: 782.72
Upper Extreme: 789.22
Equilibrium: 769.84-769.95
Lower Decision Area: 763.45-763.68
Downside Path: 757.18
Lower Extreme: 750.91
Weekly View
SPY starts the shortened week with a very tight equilibrium around 770.
The structure is also notably symmetric. The primary decision areas sit roughly 6-7 points on either side of equilibrium, at 776.22-776.45 above and 763.45-763.68 below.
Above 776.45, the next level is 782.72. Below 763.45, the next downside level is 757.18.
With Monday closed and only four trading sessions available, the initial Tuesday move and whether SPY holds above or below the 770 equilibrium will be particularly important for the week's structure.
Spiral event nearing 9/09 to 9/11 from Feb 19 th2025 top F14The chart posted is my work based on golden ratio Spirals from the Spiral Calendar . On sept 10 th . We have a cluster of spiral from 9/3 to 9/10 Each turn is from a past major high and low to calculate spirals Also on sept 10th we will have a NEW MOON . I am looking for an Event on 9/10 week. So I have now moved back to 100 % cash . It is my view that since we are at the 25th anniversary of 9/11 that the time window from 9/10 to11/3/2026 The world and world markets will be in a Negative time period . This could be the window of a major Decline .based also on the 4 yr cycle low due the week of 10/16 .Best of trades WAVETIMER






















