AVAX | Channel Broken Down — The Bounce Is OverAVAX | Rejected From Supply — The Downtrend Resumes Toward Liquidity!
By analyzing the #AVAX (Avalanche) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price remains firmly within a downtrend. Every attempt higher has been sold, and the most recent one just failed at a critical level — keeping sellers in full control.
📊 4H Timeframe
On the 4H, the structure is clearly bearish. Price has printed a series of bearish BOS on its way down, and the most recent corrective rally pushed all the way up into the strong Supply Zone ( $6.87 – $7.08 ), tagging the Protected High at $7.08 . Crucially, price could only break that level with a wick — not a clean close. That's a textbook liquidity sweep, not a genuine break, and it keeps the bearish thesis fully intact.
During that corrective rally, price had been climbing inside a tight ascending channel. That channel has now been broken to the downside — the exact signal that the correction is over and the dominant downtrend is resuming. With price trading around $6.43 , the path of least resistance points lower.
🎯 The Bias
My base case is a continuation lower toward the sell-side liquidity (SSL) resting below at $5.67 . As long as price stays capped beneath the Protected High at $7.08 , every bounce into supply remains a selling opportunity rather than a reversal. In my view, the combination of a failed sweep at the Supply Zone and a broken ascending channel is a clean bearish signal — the market swept the liquidity above, and now it turns to hunt the liquidity below. The only thing that puts this idea on hold is a decisive 4H close back above the Protected High ($7.08), which would flip the short-term structure and open a move toward the liquidity overhead.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The bearish structure lines up with a genuinely heavy news backdrop for AVAX. On July 11, Avalanche was removed from a Bitwise index fund, adding direct institutional selling pressure and highlighting how sensitive the token is to fund flows. That came alongside a reported "serious liquidity crisis" warning from Avalanche Treasury Corp as its AVAX reserves fell in value, and the resignation of AVAX One's CEO days after a stock-crash warning — a cluster of headlines weighing on sentiment. On-chain data reinforces the caution: persistent exchange net outflows and declining open interest show market participation remains subdued, with buyers lacking real conviction. There is a genuine bullish counter-current worth respecting — Hyundai just completed a USDT cross-border treasury pilot on Avalanche (settling in about seven minutes), the Avalanche Payments Collective keeps expanding, and two US-listed AVAX ETFs now exist. But until price can reclaim the supply zone with a clean close, the fundamentals and the chart point the same way: lower. AVAX still trades more than 95% below its 2021 all-time high, a reminder of how deep this trend runs.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Avalanche heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳
