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GASOIL Triangle Compression Setup Hello to all TradingView followers 🌍📈 Hope your trades are green and profitable 💚 Today we’re taking a look at London Gas Oil (GASOIL), which has recently attracted traders’ attention again due to ongoing volatility in the energy markets and oil-related products. ⚡🛢️ From a fundamental perspective, the gas oil market is still being influenced by several key factors: 🔹 Supply and demand fluctuations across Europe 🔹 OPEC production policies and output restrictions 🔹 Geopolitical tensions and transportation risks 🔹 Seasonal increases in fuel demand in certain regions These factors continue to support the overall bullish structure on higher timeframes. 📊🚀 🔍 Technical Analysis – 4H Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see a price compression forming inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, where price is currently moving between two converging trendlines. 🔺📉📈 Important observations: ✅ Higher lows are gradually forming ✅ The ascending dynamic support remains intact ✅ Selling pressure appears weaker compared to previous swings This could indicate that the market is preparing for its next impulsive move. ⚠️🔥 At the same time, the higher timeframes still maintain a bullish market structure, and as long as the highlighted support zone holds, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid. 📈🟢 🎯 Main Scenario: If price manages to break above the highlighted resistance zone and the upper boundary of the triangle, we could see a confirmed breakout from this compression structure, opening the door for further bullish continuation toward higher targets. 🚀📊 However, until a valid breakout happens, price may continue consolidating within the current range. ⏳ 📌 Key Zones on the Chart: 🟩 Support Zone → Major demand/support area 🟥 Resistance Zone → Key breakout confirmation area ❓What’s your opinion? Will GASOIL successfully break out of this compression? 🤔 👍 Yes, bullish continuation ahead 👎 No, rejection and downside move possible ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis reflects personal opinion only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Always use proper risk management and your own confirmation before entering any trade. 🧠⚖️ #GASOIL #OIL #BRENT #WTI #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #Forex #Commodities #ChartAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #TrianglePattern #Breakout #SmartMoney #ICT #SupplyAndDemand #Bullish #4H #EnergyMarket

by forexcitypro_leemeenal

Gasoil breakout: Neutral RSI confirms hidden bullish sentiment However, despite the fact that low sulpher Gasoil is still expensive and costs 1,282, there are high chances for further growth in the coming periods due to a positive technical situation. Low sulpher Gasoil's current sideways consolidation is an institutional buying, rather than exhaustion in the market, which is confirmed by a neutral RSI value, which is 52.44, and the 20-day EMA, which is a strong level of support. The underlying cause for this movement will be the shortage of distillates in Europe due to re-routings through the Strait of Hormuz.

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by Kearabilwe-Nonyana

Gasoil squeeze: Why a Neutral 53.41 RSI Makes $1,365 the target It is evident that the international middle distillate market is experiencing an institutional accumulation case study. Although the prices for Gasoil are extremely high at 1275.67, there has been a highly bullish shift in the technical structural profile. The macro factors continue to be extremely bullish in their behavior, justifying why the price will not fall even if the technical indicators have shown a cooling off in the momentum. Firstly, the Cape of Good Hope diversion continues to occur as Middle Eastern distillate tankers navigate through this route, thereby creating significant ton-miles demand from the global shipowners fleet. The trend gives a fundamental background considering the structurally under-supplied inventories in European diesel and gasoil. Secondly, RefineryConstraints play a key role as high seasonal refinery turnaround and high premium sweet crude costs have led to limited middle distillate production. From a technical standpoint, there appears to be a bullish base developing. The RSI has reset itself back to 53.41, which means that all the froth has been eliminated from the market. Now, the RSI is well set for upward movement since it will have lots of room before becoming overbought once more. Moreover, the price action continues to effectively use the 20-day EMA as a dynamic support level. When this occurs, usually a price breakout happens very soon afterwards. Trade recommendation Direction : Long Entry zone : 1265.00 – 1280.00 (Deploying capital within the current consolidation block while the RSI is near the 50 midpoint). Primary target : 1365.00 Secondary target : 1420.00 . Stop loss : 1225.00 Technical scenarios Expansion Trigger: Price breaks above 1295.00 + RSI accelerates past 60. Outcome: Initiates a secondary vertical surge directly targeting 1365.00. Retest Trigger : Price slips below 1260.00 + RSI dips to 45. Outcome: A minor shakeout toward the 1240.00 support node before buyers aggressively step back in. Base building Trigger: Price continues to churn between 1265 and 1285. Outcome: RSI flattens around 50, lengthening the consolidation runway ahead of late-May inventory data.

by Kearabilwe-Nonyana

DIESEL and OIL continues to rise as the WAR in IRAN continues If the blockade of Hormuz strait persists, western countries are going to be hit by depletion of oil reserves, jet fuel etc. We've seen similar moves in 2008 where the oil rose continually for a year and grew more than 100%. It is apparent that today's situation will be much much worse, if it persists. Thus I'm inclined to say, that a next economic crisis may be coming soon and this could be the catalyst.

Distillate Stocks Drop as Diesel Demand Remains Strong Falling Distillate Inventories Amid Rising Consumption U.S. distillate fuel inventories ( ECONOMICS:USDFP ) declined by 1.3 million barrels last week, bringing total stockpiles to levels 6% below the five-year seasonal average, as EIA WPSR report may show us. This drop highlights the ongoing strength in demand for diesel and heating fuels, particularly in the industrial and transportation sectors. Unlike gasoline, which has seen sluggish consumption trends, distillate demand surged by 7.1% year-over-year, reflecting robust activity in freight transportation and manufacturing. Despite the decline in inventories, refinery output of distillates fell to 4.6 million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that refiners are prioritizing gasoline production. This reduction in supply, coupled with increasing demand, could create tighter conditions in the diesel market if stockpiles continue to decline. Diesel Price Movements and Refinery Adjustments While overall fuel prices have trended lower, diesel markets may see stronger support due to constrained supply. The combination of lower production and higher demand could prevent diesel prices from falling as sharply as gasoline. Refiners will need to balance output in the coming weeks to ensure sufficient availability, especially as industrial activity remains a key driver of distillate consumption. With refinery utilization still below peak levels at 85.9%, a potential rebound in crude processing could help stabilize distillate inventories. However, if refiners continue to favor gasoline over diesel, stockpiles may remain tight, supporting price resilience in the distillate market. Investment and Market Implications Investors tracking energy markets should closely watch refining margins and production trends in the coming weeks. Companies like Valero Energy ( NYSE:VLO ) and Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ) may see shifts in profitability depending on how refiners adjust their product mix. Additionally, heating oil and diesel futures could see increased volatility as supply and demand imbalances persist. The ongoing decline in distillate inventories underscores the strength of diesel demand, setting the stage for potential price movements in the coming months. If refiners do not boost output, tighter supply conditions could support distillate prices, even as broader fuel markets experience downward pressure.

Distillate Inventories Surge as Refiners Boost Diesel Output Rising Distillate Production and Inventory Build U.S. distillate fuel inventories ( ECONOMICS:USDFP ) saw a sharp increase of 3.9 million barrels last week, reflecting a significant rise in refinery output. Distillate fuel production reached 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd), marking one of the highest levels in recent months. The increase suggests refiners are responding to strong seasonal demand for diesel and heating oil, particularly in industrial and freight sectors. While distillate stockpiles remain below the five-year average, this recent buildup provides a short-term cushion against supply constraints. The inventory growth contrasts with the broader decline in total petroleum stocks, which fell by 2.2 million barrels, highlighting the selective increase in diesel availability. Demand Trends and Market Implications Despite rising inventories, demand for distillate fuels remains strong, with four-week average consumption reaching 4.3 million bpd, a 14.2% year-over-year increase. The surge is driven by industrial activity, freight transportation, and winter heating demand, which have kept diesel consumption elevated. Retail diesel prices have shown relative stability, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics. However, the increase in refining capacity dedicated to distillate production could introduce short-term pricing pressure, particularly if demand softens. Investment and Trading Considerations The expansion in distillate inventories presents several key considerations for market participants: • Refining stocks, such as Valero ( NYSE:VLO ) and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ), could benefit from increased diesel production, depending on refining margins. • Heating oil futures ( NYMEX:HO1! ) may face near-term volatility as supply balances against continued winter demand. • Freight and industrial sectors remain a strong driver of diesel consumption, making economic indicators in these sectors critical to watch. On this basis: The significant rise in distillate inventories highlights refiners' strategic production shift to meet diesel demand. While short-term price stability remains, continued strong consumption could limit downside risks, keeping distillate markets well-supported.

Gas oil, in the search phase for an ideal position A satisfactory correction has been completed. Nice bullish candle signal on the weekly chart. This week you may want to look for a good position to buy. CAPITALCOM:GASOIL

#Gasoil Update The Gasoil chart also has several alternatives to how it can shape the end of the uptrend. I indicated them on the chart below. Black labels mark the alternative scenario. Probability is not much different from each other. In summary, we have to prepare for a volatile environment which would be difficult to orientate until it is over and wave of X is formed.

by Energeia_Charta

#Gasoil Update #OOTT This time, Gasoil has a more defined structure, signalling that the advance will continue. The final shape is yet unknown. The terminating diagonal is solely included for illustration purposes.

by Energeia_Charta

#Gasoil Update Similar to WTI, I expect gasoil prices to take off almost immediately and through the roof.

by Energeia_Charta

#Gasoil Update Gasoil Elliott Wave story is less controversial than Crude Oil story . The price rests on Moving Averages support and Gasoil crack appears to be on an upward trend too. This suggests that refinery margins are likely to improve. In practice, this means that Gasoil prices are likely to grow faster than Oil prices, perhaps due to unsatisfied demand for diesel fuel. What I also dislike a bit here is that wave (ii) seems a bit too complicated, being a combination of flat w, simple zigzag x and another simple zigzag y. I was taught that although possible such combinations are rare and shall be used only labeling in retrospective when no other alternatives fit. Now it is part of the ongoing trade and if I am proven wrong I will have to stricten my rules about this combination.

by Energeia_Charta

GASOIL Update With today's vicious dip, Gasoil invalidated many alternative scenarios, and I am inclined to see a bullish trend accelerating.

by Energeia_Charta

Gasoil Update The price of gasoil has caused me to reconsider my near-term oil price forecast, allowing for another week of correction before the price is expected to take off. As a result, I've reduced the number of waves in progress to two: leading diagonal (i) and expanded flat (ii).

by Energeia_Charta

Gasoil Update I think I am pretty much the only author analysing Gasoil.

by Energeia_Charta

Gasoil Update The fact that the price did not touch the redline (the starting point of wave a) means that within the current scenario of abc flat only one option is possible - regular flat where wave c travels beyond the low of wave a but stays above wave (i) starting point. That places the target within a green rectangular boundaries. Of course this is a very, very speculative scenario hinging on a lot of assumptions. The biggest assumption is the regular flat, because regular flat is the rarest form of flat correction. Perhaps a more probable scenario is that the price will penetrate the red line and reverses to form a shallower wave c

by Energeia_Charta

GASOIL Update Today I did some complex charting and out of the box thinking to stay on track and in positions.

by Energeia_Charta