In-depth trading ideas

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Making money is all the therapeutic effect I need from CNTX I've only been trading CNTX a short time - since the beginning of March. But it has been a productive few weeks. +31.34% ROIC in 11 total trading days of exposure. That's an average return/lot/day held of 2.85% or about 66x the average daily return for stocks historically, and better than that vs. the market recently. All while the stock has gone up a total of around 10%. This is a simple mean reversion trade, but I'll add a little twist. I have a limit order on for 5% above my entry price. So either I get out there, or if I don't get that, then it will be a FPC exit. Nothing fancy here. I'm not playing for an earnings hit, a phase whatever trial announcement, nothing fundamental. Just a rebound from a poor 5 day stretch. I went long this morning at 2.44 and will be adding again if I'm not out today and will tactically add and subtract if this is a drawn out trade, according to a specific plan that I'll explain if it becomes relevant. Hopefully, I'm out today and it isn't. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

by redwingcoach

Throw out (almost) everything you know about how I trade.Chances are, virtually the only people who will see this idea are followers of mine. And that is just fine with me. You deserve this more than anyone else. But I have to warn those of you who have been following me for a long time - this is NOT my normal trading style. So make sure you are sitting down for this one. I won't bore you with the details, but I had a little epiphany late last week by accident. I decided to look at a common situation I trade from a different perspective. And when I did, this popped out. It violates a lot of the "rules" I have been using for almost my entire trading career, spanning longer than some of you reading this have probably been alive. To that end, this tiger does not change his stripes unless he has a very, VERY good reason to. And I do. Today I will be proposing a trade with several features previously unknown in my 170+ ideas I've posted here. I will not be "buying the dip" - CNTX is in a very strong uptrend right now. I WILL be using a profit target. I will not be avoiding lesser known stocks in a sector I heretofore almost never traded (pre-revenue pharma). I will, however, still not use a safety net (no stop loss) and until the day I die, I will take my money and run. The easiest money you will ever make in the market is the money you don't lose and have to make back. Never forget that. So here are the details of the trade. First, do not think this is some crazy shotgun idea. I have backtested this over 2000 trades in various stocks in various sectors over the weekend. While you were watching the Super Bowl, I was half watching and half backtesting. The results have been nothing short of stellar. The win rate on these trades is over 98%. 2/3 of the trades have closed on the same day and 75% within the first 2 trading days. About 88% of them close profitably within a week. In total, the trades averaged about .25% per lot per day held, which works out to an average annualized return for these trades of +65%. But that's not the best part. When I backtest a new strategy, the FIRST place I go is to downtrends and bad stocks. And when I say bad, I mean BAD. The results mentioned above were on stocks where the median return during the backtest period was -84%. That's right. A win rate of 98% and an average daily return of about 6x the long term average daily return of the S&P 500 on stocks that were by and large down and down HARD. I do this because my prime directive in trading is to not lose money. That's more important than how much I make. I am very conservative in that regard. I want what I do to hold up no matter how bad things get, so I backtest those scenarios first. That, in fact, is what attracted me most to this strategy. The ability to win while the stock is losing. It kept me from piling on lots while the stock was falling, while taking high percentage shots when the opportunity presented itself. The max number of lots I accumulated on ANY of the stocks over a 2 year backtest span (during which 5 of the stocks fell OVER 99%) was 5. the average was 3. Most of the time, only 1 or 2 lots were open. That is a HUGE deal. It reduces portfolio drawdown in bad times and frees up more cash that can be used on other stocks to diversify holdings. I won't repeat the stats for CNTX in particular, since they are in the text box on the chart, but I will say that these CNTX results are well above average compared to the results mentioned earlier. They were not even part of the backtest results mentioned earlier because they don't cover the same time frame. I did that because CNTX actually had a run of +130% or so going into this chart view shown here that would have inflated my results and I didn't want that. I wanted results that show what this does in tough times. If this good trend continues, then the trade will just pay faster. Now here is the last twist compared to my usual trading method. Ordinarily, I enter the trade at the close of the signal day. With this, I enter at the open of the following trading session. I would NOT enter early. Often in situations like this, there will be a gap down overnight and that will make it MUCH harder to hit the profit target. If it opens lower, that does not usually matter in terms of reaching the TP target if entering at the open. If it gaps higher overnight, that doesn't stop me either. The key is to get a sell order in quickly after entry. This morning, I literally had one of these trades blow through my profit target faster than I could get my sell limit order done. I ended up just using a market order and getting more than I was looking for anyway. That round trip took, and I am not exaggerating a bit here, 39 seconds. If I could have typed faster and gotten the order in sooner, it would have taken even less time. I don't think that's typical, but I had 2 of them in and out in under 90 seconds today for gains of 4 and 6 percent. There is a "dark" side here too, and I would be remiss not to share that as well. These trades are in stocks that are volatile. That is 100% by design. My goal is to take advantage of the upside volatility they provide in a particular setup. Two days ago, I traded SMX. That stock was down 20% within minutes of my entry. It bottomed at -24% on the VERY FIRST DAY I had it, though it recovered quite a bit by the close. The next day, I was out with my money. It ran up over 30% from the open the next day and completed a trough to peak move of almost 60% in less than a full trading day's worth of time. This is not for the faint of heart. Also, this system is prone to some WICKED drawdowns on individual lots. While the win rate is north of 98%, EVERY stock I backtested would have had at least one of my lots hit a bottom of at LEAST -46% and some were upwards of -90%. I am (sort of) fine with that, because a) I'm not carrying a huge position since I'm maxing out at only a few lots and b) the vast majority of those trades eventually turned around and became profitable. Knowing that is part of the deal (something I am already very familiar with) makes that easier to handle, though it's never enjoyable. So if you do follow me on this trade, beware. This isn't a free money glitch. There is always risk, but in my opinion the rewards are VASTLY greater or I wouldn't be pulling the trigger. I have also tried to stack the deck a little here by choosing a stock that is above its 20, 50 and 200 day MAs. Those tend to carry MUCH less risk and pay faster and better than the ones my backtests were based on - unless you catch a top. That is always a risk. Finally, while it may seem like options would be a great way to trade a system where 80+% of trades close in a week or less, you can always run into a situation where you catch a top. It happens here frequently enough that I'll stick to the stock for these kind of trades, thank you. Also, putting ones chips "all in" on what seems like a sure thing always seems like a good idea until that "sure thing" turns out not to be. Restraint keeps you in the game for the long haul. Trying to get rich quick puts you in a position to get poor quick. I don't have any interest in that. Nobody should. Making lost money back is WAY harder than not losing it to begin with. So the trade is this: LONG CNTX at the open (I'll update what that entry price is after the open). My TP goal on this one is +5% so as soon as it opens, I will calculate what 5% above that price is and place my sell limit order. Unless, of course, it runs away to the upside on me again and I just hit the market sell order and get more than the 5% I'm looking for. That is stressful, but obviously welcomed. The option to enter a OTO order would be nice, but I don't have that luxury. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. Do your own research and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

by redwingcoach

CNTX - LONGERT A pattern I've noticed a lot is a small break of the wedge into an immediate sell off but the structure of the wedge remains. Can get some really good RRs when: 1) This sell off goes very close to the low of the wedge 2) Wicks the low of the wedge, trades up and finds support above the low and very quickly goes to breakout again. Much better probability of breakout when the break is not "fresh". The deeper this pullback the better the RR and the further it will go when it breaks. All about getting people either on the wrong side, or chasing Anyway, would like to see this keep above 1.95.

by SlapAsksLiftOffers

edited trend The uptrend must be respected , we can use it as stop loss

by alarifitradingltd

$CTNX 30% next 2 week The uptrend must be respected , we can use it as stop loss

by alarifitradingltd

CNTX Breakout Liking this setup going into AACR cancer conference April 8 where they have 5 posters to present

CNTX, MACD + RSI setting up real nicely for an upwards run. CNTX is a recent IPO that has seen some decent movement and appears to have hit a bottom. MACD is about to cross to the upside and the RSI is coming out of an almost overseold. Typically when these two line up you get a move to the upside. Time will tell...

Possible bottom?Possible bottom for $CNTX... Dilution could say otherwise. Looking for it to return to about $5.30 (price point of point of most volume since IPO).

by Magnus_Chimpski

$CNTX I'm not much of a Financial Analyst Trader; nevertheless, on certain types of trades / investments I may peak to determine feasibility for longer term outlooks. I like the fact there is enough in Assets to cover the entire companies expenses. In addition, it's nice to see a company who isn't in the infant stages with current trials in progress; therefore, shows some maturity -- despite being a small company itself.

by UnknownUnicorn1960938