In-depth trading ideas

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Tilray: Weed Out the Bears Tilray NASDAQ:TLRY has completed a 5-wave bearish structure and is currently trading below the volume POC. If we consider the possibility of a correction to the downside move, we can entertain the hypothesis — not yet confirmed — that we are within a Wyckoff-style accumulation range, with climactic volume signaling a stopping point. This leads us to consider a long trade from current levels, targeting the $26 USD zone in the short term (confluence between waves 1 and 4 of the bearish move). Some form of bearish manipulation bringing prices lower should be expected. Holding the position and avoiding an overly tight stop will be key.

by federico_gomez_

TLRY | Why Tilray is Coiled for a 400% Explosion | LONG Forget the daily retail noise. If you want to understand the massive move currently coiling up for Tilray (TLRY), you only need to look at three interlocking factors: the fundamental catalyst, the structural pattern, and the institutional footprint. The Catalyst: DEA Rescheduling The looming U.S. federal order to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III is the fundamental match to this powder keg. This isn't just a regulatory headline; it is the exact systemic shift required to unlock massive institutional capital flows that have been forced to sit on the sidelines for years. It fundamentally changes the viability of the entire sector. The Structure: The Bullish Wedge While the broader market waits for the final official ruling, TLRY's price action has compressed into a massive, textbook bullish wedge on the macro chart. We are seeing a series of lower highs grinding down into a firm structural floor, tightening the trading range week after week. The asset is coiling tightly at the absolute apex of this wedge, structurally signaling that a violent, directional breakout is imminent. The Footprint: Heavy Volume Accumulation Here is where the math becomes undeniable. If you look under the hood of this tightening bullish wedge, we aren't seeing distribution or weak-handed selling, we are seeing heavy, sustained volume accumulation. Smart money is quietly and aggressively absorbing the remaining float at these suppressed base levels. When you pair a tightening wedge with heavy accumulation volume, it tells you one thing: institutional buyers are building their core positions right before the rescheduling catalyst fully prices in. The compression at the apex is almost over. Watch for the high-volume expansion breaking through the top resistance of the wedge. Stay sharp and follow the volume. — The Divergence Seeker

by DivergenceSeeker

TLRY 1 Year Stoch RSI appears to be pushing up. The price action is looking like it is changing. 5 Year Stoch RSI has bottomed. Prediction: this appears bullish and will start moving up.

Tilray remains in an obvious channel This chart will be obvious re: the next direction of this stock. If this resolves upwards, it'll be a strong move. I suspect it'll test a double bottom around $3-4 dollars first before it decides on its next direction.

TLRY - Cannabis is Waking Up Here's the Roadmap After a prolonged downtrend, the stock has been consolidating within a falling wedge structure, with a key decision zone clearly defined between $7.60 and $8.35. Yesterday we saw a breakout attempt accompanied by a significant volume surge **29.41M vs. a 30-day average of 3.78M, nearly 8x**. However, there is still no confirmed daily close above resistance. As long as price holds above the zone, momentum supports the bullish scenario with Fibonacci resistance levels at $9.54 (0.236) and $12.14 (0.382). A daily close above $8.35 would strengthen the case for continuation, while a failure and close back below $8.00 would signal a return to consolidation or renewed bearish pressure. ⚠️ Not financial advice.

Possible scenario for $TLRY IMO this is a possible scenario for #TLRY, if we don't break the resistance within the next 2 weeks, I see it going back to the support line and later going back. I'm putting some buy orders at 0.65 and 0.55 just in case..

One of my favorite long-term investments I like the structure. But it still needs to prove itself. I have seen it overperform the other Nasdaq stocks and even be green when the Nasdaq is red. I like that. It will suffer from credit tightening and higher yields, but Tilray has paid off most of their debt, and ensured a free cash flow pathway to take them across the finish line. I plan to retire off this stock. So I will absolutely, without a doubt, be buying any capitulation events down near the $5-6 dollar region. (Not financial advice....but, dang.) Add it to your list.

by MonetaryRebel

Continuing trend on TLRY Hi traders , in my opinion i think Tilray will continue bleeding till the next earnings, looking at the chart and the last bear wedge that formed makes me believe we will visit the 5.80$-5.50$ area. From there, depending on how good the earning are i think the trend will change , anyway we will see a bounce i guess for sure. I do not expect that rescheduling would save the chart but i trust the analysis more, of course rescheduling would change everything, but till then we have to be realistic , therefore i would wait for the target price and will add shares to my portofolio based on the next earnings and news. ( Trust your own instincts ! This is just an idea )

TLRY at key support: traders eye a rebound toward $9:Current Price: 7.51 (Analysis was generated on Monday Morning) Direction: LONG Confidence level: 58%(Several traders highlight a constructive setup and a double-bottom idea with $9 as a key upside level, but overall data volume is limited and conviction is moderate.) Targets Target 1: 8.50 Target 2: 9.00 Stop Levels Stop 1: 7.20 Stop 2: 6.90 Key Insights: Here’s what’s driving this setup. TLRY has sold off hard from the December spike and is now sitting just above a well-watched support zone around $7.20–$7.50. Several traders are framing this as a “buy near support” situation, not a momentum chase. The idea is simple: downside looks more limited here than it did higher up, while upside opens quickly if buyers step in. What caught my attention is how often $9 shows up in trader commentary. Multiple traders mentioned that level as both a technical line in the sand and a trigger point. That tells me the market is coiled — not exploding yet, but ready to react if price starts moving in either direction. Recent Performance: You can see this tension clearly in the price action. TLRY ran aggressively into December, topping above $13, then unwound that move just as fast. Since late January, price has been stabilizing in the mid-$7 range, with selling pressure easing compared to the prior weeks. It’s not strong yet, but it’s no longer free-falling either. Expert Analysis: Several professional traders I’m tracking described the chart as “constructive” despite weak earnings, pointing out that price is holding the lower end of its recent range. The repeated reference to a double-bottom idea suggests traders are watching for confirmation rather than guessing. Importantly, they’re also very clear on risk: if $9 doesn’t hold on a bounce, they step aside. That clarity around both upside and invalidation is a positive sign. Even with modest volume, it shows traders have a plan rather than hope. News Impact: Fundamentally, the last earnings miss still hangs over the stock, and that’s why confidence isn’t higher. That said, revenue did come in better than some expected, and there’s no fresh negative headline hitting right now. With the next earnings not until April 2026, near-term price action is likely to be driven more by technical positioning and sentiment than by news shocks. Trading Recommendation: Here’s my take. I’m leaning LONG near $7.50 with tight risk control. The risk-to-reward favors a bounce play toward $8.50 first, then a possible test of $9 if momentum builds this week. I don’t want to see price lose $7.20 — that’s my first warning sign — and below $6.90 I’m out, no questions asked. This isn’t a high-conviction swing, but it’s a reasonable short-term trade based on where price is sitting and what several traders are watching.

by CrowdWisdomTrading

TLRY [TILRAY] EWP FIB TC ANALYSIS WEEKLY TF TLRY – Macro Elliott Wave Structure The 2018 IPO spike to the split-adjusted $3000 represents a speculative blow-off and is not counted as part of a standard Elliott impulse. This type of parabolic launch is treated as an exogenous event, followed by a full corrective cycle. The true Elliott structure begins after the collapse from the IPO high into the 2019–2020 lows: • Cycle / Primary A: 2018–2020 impulsive liquidation from IPO mania • Cycle / Primary B: 2020–2021 corrective recovery (ABC structure, bull trap) • Cycle / Primary C: 2021–present extended decline, now in its final stages Primary C is subdividing into Intermediate (1)–(5). Intermediate (3) likely terminated near 3.51, followed by the current Intermediate (4) relief rally. The advance from 3.51 remains corrective (overlapping internals, no Wave-3 acceleration, RSI flattening), supporting the view that Intermediate (5) is still ahead. Primary C has not yet achieved typical Fibonacci symmetry versus Primary A. Confluence for Intermediate (5) termination currently clusters at $1.50 Base case (~70%): Intermediate (5) completes into the $1.50 region, finishing Primary C and setting up a multi-month reversal. Post-C expectations: • Initial rebound: 3.2–3.6 • Larger retrace: 6–8 (0.382–0.5 of Primary C) • Sustained acceptance above 13–15 would confirm a higher-degree trend change. Alternate (~30%): Only a clean impulsive advance (5 up on lower TFs) with acceptance above former resistance (~6) and expanding momentum would allow 3.51 to be reconsidered as the Primary C low. Timing (rough guide): Based on channel symmetry and prior C-wave duration, Intermediate (5) is likely to resolve within 4–12 weeks, with volatility expected to increase into termination. Until impulsive upside structure appears, rallies are treated as corrective moves inside Primary C. Like and follow for more charts like this.

Green Rush Reloaded Tilray is currently testing the bottom of a key daily gap near the $8.00 level, an area that has acted as strong technical support. A decisive breakout above the $16.00 level would confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the door for a push toward the $23.14 resistance, which aligns with prior major supply zones. TLRY appears ready for a bounce after recently tagging and defending its $1 billion market cap level. When a stock successfully holds this valuation threshold, it often signals institutional and long-term investor interest stepping in. If a company is going to survive and participate in the next growth cycle, bouncing off the $1B market cap is a healthy and constructive sign. With a clearly defined stop loss at $4.89, this setup offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio, making TLRY an attractive high-upside rebound play—especially if sentiment shifts back toward the cannabis sector.

by The_Trading_Mechanic

Tilray Brands' (NASDAQ: TLRY) record-breaking fiscal Q2 2026 Based on a comprehensive analysis of Tilray Brands' (NASDAQ: TLRY) record-breaking fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and its broader financial trajectory, several key technical price levels have emerged as critical support and risk zones. These levels provide a structured framework for assessing the stock's stability following its positive fundamental news and for managing downside risk in a volatile sector. Detailed Technical Support Zones: The stock's reaction to its strengthened balance sheet and reaffirmed guidance establishes a baseline from which to gauge future pullbacks. Three primary tiers of technical support are identified, each representing a potential area where buyer interest could resurge if broader market or sector-specific pressures cause a retracement from current levels. Primary Near-Term Support ($7.70): This represents the first and most immediate level of defense following the post-earnings price action. Holding above $7.70 would indicate that the bullish sentiment derived from the company's record revenue, improved net loss, and transition to a net cash position of $27.4 million remains intact. A successful test of this zone would suggest a healthy consolidation, allowing the stock to build a foundation for its next move higher. Secondary Core Support ($7.00): The $7.00 level is a significant psychological and technical threshold. A decline to this zone would indicate a deeper correction, potentially triggered by sector-wide volatility or profit-taking after the earnings rally. However, it would also likely be viewed as a strategic entry point for investors who believe in the long-term thesis centered on Tilray's diversified portfolio and its poised entry into the U.S. medical market pending federal rescheduling. Holding this support is crucial for maintaining the intermediate-term uptrend structure. Tertiary & Critical Long-Term Support ($6.00): The $6.00 level represents a major line in the sand for the bullish narrative. A retracement to this depth would signal a severe loss of momentum and likely reflect broader pessimism about the cannabis sector or specific execution concerns. While a test here would be concerning, a definitive reversal and bounce from $6.00 would demonstrate exceptional resilience and could mark a significant long-term bottom. A sustained break below, however, would invalidate the current recovery thesis and necessitate a fundamental re-evaluation. The Danger Zone: Ultimate Risk Level ($3.50): Beyond the established support tiers lies the critical danger zone at $3.50. A breach of the $6.00 support and a decline toward $3.50 would represent a catastrophic technical breakdown, implying a market judgment that Tilray's operational progress—including its record $218 million revenue, $292 million in cash, and path to $62-$72 million in adjusted EBITDA—is fundamentally insufficient or that the company faces an insurmountable threat. This level is far below the current trading range and would only come into play in a scenario of extreme sector distress, a major company-specific failure, or a complete collapse of the U.S. regulatory catalyst thesis. Fundamental Context and Confluence: These technical levels must be interpreted alongside Tilray's solidifying fundamentals. The company is no longer a speculative pure-play but a diversified CPG company with market leadership in cannabis and growing distribution/pharma businesses. The 36% growth in international medical cannabis and the potential U.S. medical expansion provide tangible growth catalysts. The improved balance sheet significantly de-risks the equity, making deep declines less probable unless the core thesis fractures. Conclusion: In summary, while Tilray's stock exhibits positive momentum driven by strong financial execution, the identified support levels at $7.70, $7.00, and $6.00 provide a clear roadmap for assessing strength and potential accumulation opportunities. The $7.00 level is particularly pivotal as a bellwether for medium-term sentiment. The fundamental improvements act as a buffer against severe declines, making a test of the $3.50 danger zone an unlikely tail-risk scenario unless the company's operational or regulatory outlook deteriorates dramatically. Investors should monitor reactions at these defined levels, where the interplay between technical price action and Tilray's evolving commercial story will be most clearly evident.

$TLRY after-hours after earnings trade NASDAQ:TLRY — Bought some in the after-hours after earnings. Tilray did just beat on revenue and the chart looks constructive. Sitting near the lower end of the range with a double bottom, which makes this a good trade even without strong earnings. Stop: $9 should hold. Target don't know yet need to asses strength first.

by Swing_Trader_Saan

Buy above $9 If price drops back below $9, I'm going to be having a word with the charting gods. The technical setup here is very textbook. White boxes on the chart may be fractals. (Essentially, waves of momentum that ripple through like little mirror signatures after the initial wave.) Tilray has a crazy awesome bullish setup over the next month or two, but oddly other markets I am seeing bearish signs. The only explanation I can think of is maybe Tilray is partly seen as a recessionary play due to their alcohol business and capital is switching sectors. One positive sign for Tilray is even though it is listed in the Nasdaq, even while the Nasdaq was red today (01/02/26), Tilray was UP +7%. Unexpected bullish divergence. The other option is that this is all liquidity based and it's just the fact that rescheduling cannabis should lead to greater liquidity in the sector. Who knows. But! IF the gods aren't completely screwing with us, Tilray should revisit $15 in the next few months. If Trump comes out and says, "Actually, I lied, and weed is bad." THEN the rally could end and we reverse the whole thing. I love this stock long-term no matter what. I think when the U.S. Treasury goes tits up, obviously everything will enter crisis, but they'll love cannabis once we peasants really get pissed and start banging on the doors. They'll legalize weed while we enter a lost decade and reshuffle the monetary system. One day, cannabis will be a commodity again, like wheat, cotton, etc., but that's just my opinion and a bit of a historical cycle thing.

by MonetaryRebel

TLRY - A Last Gasp of a Dying Industry, Or?.....Cannabis stocks have been nothing short of annihilated lately. The last administration failed to deliver on their hot air promises and now the current one has done nothing to help the industry. Yet. We're headed either toward mass bankruptcy or the beginning of a new cycle. TLRY around 25 on the weekly RSI, as low as it's ever been. Getting hammered. I'm optimistic, probably foolishly...

Buy the Dip I am buying this dip. We've re-entered a good support area, but we need to watch the gap from Friday 12Dec2025. Gaps can be magnetic in that the market wants price discovery in those areas. Entering the gap is fine, but if price starts to drag down to $9 then we are in caution mode. This December impulsive move up looks like a smaller fractal of the larger move up from July-October. IF that holds, it is mega-bullish. For me, it all depends on what happens in that gap. Best case, we hold above $10, build structure, and then launch up. Worst case, we enter the gap, don't find buyers, and the smaller fractal fails when price closes below $9 and does not immediately gap back up on the next open.

by MonetaryRebel

Tilray: 80% gains!TLRY shares have made significant strides, boasting a gain of over 80%. Currently, the price continues to develop within orange wave iii, aiming to surpass the resistance at $23.20 in the next phase. A drop below the support at $3.51, however, would trigger our alternative scenario. In this case, it implies that the large beige wave alt.W is not yet complete (Probability: 33%).

00:41

Go Time This is the bounce we've been waiting for. We have entered buy the dip mode on Tilray. As long as we hold above $8.80, I'm bullish. Biggest risk is that Trump 180's, but my longstanding theory has been and still is that the government is saving cannabis legalization for the next big downturn. Next depression? Legalize weed and then the working class won't revolt. There are signs in the oil and debt markets that are saying this is beginning now. Just beginning.

by MonetaryRebel

Tilray Soars on Trump Policy Shift: Buy or Sell?Tilray (TLRY) shares jumped 30% following major political news. President Donald Trump announced plans to reclassify cannabis as a Schedule III drug. Additionally, a new pilot program may allow seniors to buy cannabis through Medicare. The stock has now doubled since its December lows. This analysis breaks down why this matters for your portfolio across key sectors. Geopolitics and Strategy: The Policy Pivot The U.S. government is changing its strategic stance on cannabis. President Trump’s potential executive order signals a massive shift in federal law. Moving cannabis to "Schedule III" lowers its legal severity. This aligns the U.S. with other progressive nations. For Tilray, this removes the constant fear of federal prosecution. It creates a safer environment for institutional investors to enter the market. Economics: Tax and Banking Freedom Reclassification solves two major economic problems for Tilray. Currently, cannabis companies pay extremely high taxes because of "Section 280E." This rule prevents them from deducting normal business expenses. Schedule III status removes this burden. It instantly improves cash flow and profitability. Furthermore, it opens access to traditional banking services, reducing the cost of doing business. Business Models: The Senior Market The proposed Medicare pilot program is a game-changer. It allows the government to subsidize cannabis for seniors. This creates a stable, guaranteed revenue stream for Tilray. Seniors often use these products for pain relief and health. This shifts the business model from recreational use to "medical necessity." A government-backed customer base is highly reliable and lucrative. Science and Innovation: Research Growth Strict laws previously blocked scientific research. Reclassification makes Research and Development (R&D) much easier. Tilray can now study cannabis compounds more freely. This accelerates the creation of new medical products. Patent analysis suggests this will lead to proprietary formulas. Owning exclusive medical patents creates a "moat" that protects Tilray from competitors. Market Data: What Traders Are Betting Options traders expect huge volatility. Data shows traders are pricing in a 50% move by March 2026. The target price in this bullish scenario is $21.22. This means investors are willing to bet money that the stock will rise significantly. Sentiment is aggressive and optimistic. Technical Analysis: The Trend is Up The stock chart confirms the positive news. Tilray is trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. These are key lines that determine the trend direction. When the price is above them, the trend is "Bullish" (upward). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, showing the rally has room to grow. Conclusion: Wall Street’s Verdict Analysts rate Tilray as a "Moderate Buy." Price targets reach as high as $25, suggesting a potential 75% gain. The combination of tax relief, new senior customers, and technical momentum makes a strong case. However, the move depends on the Executive Order becoming law. Investors should watch for official confirmation from the White House.

by TradeThePool

TLRY 📌 TLRY: Why did the stock soar 65% and what's next? Last week saw the biggest weekly gain in the company's history. We won't go into too much detail on the fundamentals, but here's a quick overview: Revenue breakdown by product for the quarter: Canadian recreational cannabis: ~$59.1 million — the core of the Canadian business Canadian medical cannabis: ~$6.7 million International medical cannabis: ~$14.9 million — the key growth rate (+71% in the last quarter of 2025!) At the same time, cash flows, and earnings are in negative territory on a TTM basis. Net debt ~59 M P/B ~0.9 Now to the most interesting part: This share price increase is related to the likelihood of cannabis being reclassified in the US from Schedule I to Schedule III of controlled substances. What does this mean: 1. Repeal of Section 280E of the US Internal Revenue Code Currently, companies operating with cannabis in the US cannot deduct regular business expenses (rent, salaries, marketing) when calculating their income taxes. This severely compresses margins. Reclassification will automatically remove this limitation. 2. Access to Capital and Banks

by A3MInvestments

Breaking; Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) Spike 41% Today Shares of Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) saw a noteworthy uptick of 41% today defying market sentiment. For the past 2 days the stock has bounced from the $7 support zone eyeing the $15 resistant point. Ascertaining the bullish thesis is the RSI at 56, giving room for further price uptick since the asset is not overbought. In another news, Trump expected to sign executive order to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday, source tells CNBC. President Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive order as soon as Monday that would allow for reclassification of weed, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC. Such a move would allow cannabis companies to fall under different tax regulations and encourage investment. Cannabis stocks took a leg up in Friday’s midday trading following CNBC’s report. Tilray shares were recently trading at a little more than $10 after peaking at more than $2,140, adjusted for splits, in September 2018. The Amplify Cannabis ETF is still on track to lose more than 8% in 2025, its fifth straight down year. Analyst Summary According to 3 analysts, the average rating for TLRY stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $150.0, which is an increase of 1,259.93% from the latest price. Tilray Brands, Inc., a lifestyle consumer products company, engages in the research, cultivation, processing, and distribution of medical cannabis products in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.

Patience is KEY Very clear impulsive bullish price action from July-October. We have pulled back currently 50%. We're at a potentially good swing trade price, but I want to stack this stock for the long-term so I'm not buying yet. Before I buy, I want to see a shorter-term uptrend begin again and buy a pullback. Not looking to catch this falling knife. ***(Note: Since the bullish price action occurred around a news event where Trump talked about de-regulating cannabis, the bullish move may not last. This is why patience is key. This happened during Biden as well. Tilray 3-4x in weeks then bled back down to lower lows once people realized it was just talk.) I am long-term bullish on this stock however. I would love to buy sub-$1 on a little uptrend and hold for 5-10 years even.

by MonetaryRebel

Tilly Getting Silly Tilray is about to start showing signs of life. Be careful with options. They can set a couple bull traps before making a definitive new high and next leg up.