NZD/USD | Break above the Daily IFVG needed for higher targets!As you can see in the Daily chart of NZDUSD, after an initial rise to 0.57930 level, it dropped before reaching the Supply Zone at 0.5799 to 0.5843. Currently, NZDUSD is being traded at around 0.5785.
I expect NZDUSD to test the Supply Zone for the first time, after failing to do so the last time. The Supply Zone is a rather large zone, and the Daily IFVG High is inside this zone at 0.5816. If Kiwi breaks above the IFVG High and stabilize there, I expect further rise for NZDUSD, going towards the higher Supply Zone and the Buyside Liquidity above the 0.5864 level to sweep the liquidity there.
However if NZDUSD is rejected by the Supply Zone, it could drop all the way to the Daily IFVG Low at 0.5733 level.
New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
No trades
No trades
In-depth trading ideas
NZDUSD 1H: Trend Continuation Setup Targets 0.5855 & 0.5900NZDUSD 1H: Trend Continuation Setup Targets 0.5855 & 0.5900
NZDUSD continues to respect a strong bullish trend.
The recent breakout from a short-term bullish flag pattern reinforces the trend continuation outlook, suggesting buyers remain firmly in control.
Price is currently consolidating above the breakout area, which could act as a launchpad for the next leg higher. As long as the breakout level holds as support, the overall structure favors continued upside.
The first resistance to watch is 0.5855, a level that aligns with recent price structure. A sustained break above this zone could open the door to the next major objective at 0.5900.
Bullish Targets
🎯 Target 1: 0.5855
🎯 Target 2: 0.5900
You can find more details on the chart.
Thank you and good luck! 🍀
⚠️PS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
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NZD/USD Holds Strong – Can Bulls Reach 0.5940?NZD/USD Holds Strong – Can Bulls Reach 0.5940?
From our previous analysis, NZDUSD reached the first target near 0.5855 and the price started to rally again.
It seems that the price is well positioned to rise further from this area considering that the bullish trend has not changed all these days.
On the other hand, NZD continues to hold strong the bullish momentum created after the RBNZ meeting. With or without a strong reason, this is another topic, but NZD could recover again.
The question is only what market catalyst can create this move.
Targets:
0.5900
0.5940
You can find more details on the chart.
Thank you and good luck! 🍀
⚠️PS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
❤️ If this analysis helps your trading day, please support it with a like or comment ❤️
Kiwi shrugged off the risk-off — I'm buying the higher-lowWhile AUD dumped ~3% and the dollar ripped across the board today, NZD quietly held and kept grinding higher. That relative strength on a risk-off day is the tell.
The setup (daily): NZD/USD based at 0.5628 in late June and has climbed a clean staircase of higher lows (0.5674 → 0.5716 → 0.5810), reclaiming the 0.5760 shelf on the way up. I'm buying the higher-low, at structure — not chasing.
Plan:
• Entry: 0.5805-0.5840 (live ~0.5839)
• Stop: 0.5785 (below the last higher-low; a break there ends the sequence)
• TP1 0.5900 / TP2 0.5960 / TP3 0.5995 (the 2-month high)
• R:R ≈ 2.1 / 3.7 / 4.7
Every call logged, wins and losses — the whole record is public. Invalidation: a daily close back below 0.5785.
Buying kiwi's strength here, or waiting for a dip into 0.581 first? 👇
Follow for updates — posted on this idea as it plays out. 🔔
Not financial advice — do your own research and manage risk.
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
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NZDUSD: Start Of The Bearish Trend, Bullish Correction Done! Dear Traders,
The NZDUSD four-hour timeframe showed a strong bullish pattern but it didn’t last long. Now the price has changed character and is showing strong bearish characteristics. Looking ahead, we want the price to drop around our targeted area of 0.5500. As the week progresses, we’re seeing strong bullish volume in the market for the USD index.
Keep trading safely! Good luck and if you find our analyses helpful, please like and comment for more.
The Setupsfx_ Team
NZDUSD Bullish Setup: Demand Zone Supports ContinuationOANDA:NZDUSD is trading inside a clear ascending channel, keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows, while the recent pullback looks more like a healthy correction than a change in trend.
Price is now retesting a key support zone around 0.5850, where previous resistance is beginning to act as support. If buyers continue to defend this area, the next bullish leg could extend toward the 0.5935 target, near the upper boundary of the channel.
As long as price holds above the support zone and the ascending trendline, the bullish outlook remains valid. A decisive break below this structure would weaken the setup and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Always wait for confirmation and manage your risk properly.
Best of luck!
NZDUSD: Bearish Move After Trap 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD may drop after a false violation of a strong intraday resistance
with a valid bullish trap.
The price may retrace to 0.5765 level.
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NZD/USD Is Building Something Big... Is 0.6000 the Next Target?After weeks of sustained selling pressure, NZD/USD is finally showing the first signs of a potential trend reversal. Price has reacted precisely from a higher-timeframe demand zone and is now trading inside a developing bullish structure, supported by improving momentum and historically favorable seasonality.
Technical Outlook
From a price action perspective, the market has defended the daily demand area around 0.5620–0.5710, producing a sequence of higher lows and breaking the short-term bearish trendline.
The recent impulse confirms that buyers are gradually regaining control, but I am not interested in chasing price at current levels. Instead, I will be looking for a healthy pullback into support before considering any long exposure.
The first objective remains the 0.5860 resistance, while the key supply zone sits between 0.5900 and 0.6000. This area represents the most significant obstacle before a larger bullish continuation can develop.
Seasonality
Seasonality strongly supports the bullish scenario.
Across the last 20, 15, 10, 5 and even 2 years, July has consistently delivered positive average performance for NZD/USD.
Historically, the second half of July tends to produce the strongest gains, adding another layer of confluence to the current technical structure.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning is currently almost perfectly balanced, with approximately 50% long and 50% short.
This provides no meaningful contrarian signal and suggests that positioning is relatively neutral.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
This is where I remain cautious.
Institutional positioning on the New Zealand Dollar is still heavily net short, indicating that the longer-term bearish narrative has not yet disappeared.
At the same time, positioning on the US Dollar Index remains net long, although recent data shows that bullish USD exposure is beginning to soften.
In my opinion, this combination explains the current recovery in NZD/USD while also warning that the move may still be corrective until larger resistance levels are broken.
My Trading Plan
Rather than buying the breakout, I prefer waiting for price to retrace into support and produce bullish confirmation.
Bullish scenario
Buy pullbacks into 0.5710–0.5730
Targets:
0.5860
0.5900
0.6000
Bearish scenario
A daily rejection from the supply zone followed by a break below 0.5680 would invalidate my bullish short-term view and increase the probability of another test of the June lows.
NZD/USD Bearish Rejection Key Resistance Could Trigger PullbackMarket Structure
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Current Price: 0.5858
Trend: Bullish overall, but approaching strong resistance.
Bias: Bearish correction while resistance holds.
Key Levels
Resistance
0.5855–0.5860 – Major supply zone and current resistance.
Support
0.5826–0.5830 – First support and previous breakout level.
0.5788–0.5792 – Key demand zone.
0.5746–0.5750 – Major support area.
Technical Outlook
Price has reached an area where sellers have repeatedly defended the highs. Unless NZD/USD breaks and closes above 0.5860, the pair is likely to experience a corrective decline.
The expected bearish path shown on the chart is:
Rejection from the resistance zone.
Pullback toward 0.5830.
If support fails, continuation lower to 0.5790.
A stronger bearish move could extend toward 0.5750, where buyers may re-enter the market.
Bullish Invalidation
The bearish outlook would be invalidated if buyers achieve a strong 1-hour candle close above 0.5860, confirming a breakout. In that case, NZD/USD could continue its broader uptrend and target new swing highs.
Trading Idea
Sell Setup
Entry: On bearish rejection from 0.5855–0.5860.
Stop Loss: Above 0.5865–0.5870.
Take Profit 1: 0.5830
Take Profit 2: 0.5790
Take Profit 3: 0.5750
Conclusion
NZD/USD is testing a critical resistance zone after an extended bullish advance. As long as price remains below 0.5860, the short-term outlook favors a corrective decline, with 0.5830 as the first downside target, followed by 0.5790 and potentially 0.5750 if selling momentum strengthens.
NZDUSD SELL?NZDUSD approaching major daily support. Market is currently doing a liquidity sweep and there is a probality for rejection to the downside.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor
Bullish bounce off key support?NZD/USD is falling to the support level, which is an overlap support, and could bounce from this level to our take-profit.
Entry: 0.5773
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 0.5735
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.5840
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Potential bearish drop?Kiwi (NZD/USD) has rejected off the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop towards the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.5858
1st Support: 0.5807
1st Resistance: 0.5903
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Bearish reversal off key resistance?NZD/USD has rejected off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracment and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5863
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.5917
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.5806
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
BUY TRADE PLAN📌 X WEEKLY TRADE PLAN — NZDUSD
🏷️ Status
CONDITIONAL TRADE PLAN — TWO SAME-DIRECTION EXECUTION PATHS
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary: Deeper H4 pullback buy
Alternate: Breakout-retest buy if the pullback never comes
Only one NZDUSD position may become active.
Scenario A — PRIMARY PULLBACK BUY
Trade Type
Trend Continuation Pullback
Trade Idea
NZDUSD has rallied strongly from approximately 0.5630 and is now consolidating beneath 0.5860 resistance. The preferred trade is to buy a proper pullback into the latest H4 demand structure—not to chase beneath resistance.
Entry Plan
Main POI Zone: 0.5770–0.5808
Preferred Execution Band: 0.5783–0.5797
Preferred Entry: Buy Limit 0.5792, after activation
Set-and-Forget Eligible: No
Tuesday’s NZ CPI and the current proximity to resistance require H4 confirmation.
Activation
Price must pull back into 0.5770–0.5808.
A completed H4 candle must defend the area and close back above 0.5808.
Place the 0.5792 Buy Limit on the first controlled retest.
The pullback must remain corrective—not a bearish displacement through the base.
No retest means no entry.
Stop Loss
SL: 0.5746
Targets
TP1: 0.5860 — immediate H4 resistance
TP2: 0.5950 — principal D1/W1 objective
TP3: 0.6015 — upper weekly resistance extension
Risk / Reward
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.4
Risk: 0.50%
Cancel Trade If
H4 closes below 0.5746.
Price accepts beneath 0.5770 rather than reclaiming.
Price reaches 0.5860 before offering the entry.
NZ CPI consumes or invalidates the POI.
The zone is repeatedly tested and loses freshness.
Unfilled at Friday New York close.
Trade Management
At 0.5860:
Reduce approximately 25% because this is the exact ceiling currently containing the H4 advance. If price reaches it but then closes H4 back below 0.5808, protect the remainder—the breakout attempt has failed.
At 0.5950:
Close most of the position. This is the main D1/W1 objective and an established reaction area where the continuation trade has delivered its expected move.
Toward 0.6015:
Keep only a small runner after an H4 close above 0.5950 and a successful hold above it. A strong rejection at 0.5950 ends the extension attempt.
Scenario B — BREAKOUT BUY ALTERNATE
Status
Inactive unless 0.5865 is accepted first.
Trade Type
Breakout-Retest Expansion
Entry Plan
Main POI Zone: 0.5845–0.5865
Preferred Execution Band: 0.5848–0.5857
Preferred Entry: 0.5853
Activation
A completed H4 candle closes above 0.5865.
Price returns into 0.5845–0.5865.
The retest holds and H4 closes back above approximately 0.5860.
Enter near 0.5853 only while the breakout remains accepted.
A wick above 0.5865 is not enough.
Stop Loss
SL: 0.5815
Targets
TP1: 0.5905
TP2: 0.5970
TP3: 0.6030
Risk / Reward
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.1
Risk: 0.50%
Cancel Trade If
Breakout fails and H4 closes below 0.5815.
Price reaches 0.5905 before offering the retest.
The primary pullback position is already active.
The move is only a CPI spike without stable H4 acceptance.
Unfilled Friday New York close.
Validity / Expiry
Valid through Friday, July 24 New York close, unless cancelled earlier.
Remove any unfilled order before Tuesday’s NZ CPI risk window.
Re-arm only after the release has settled and the H4 structure remains valid.
No first-spike trade.
A filled position continues under its SL and management rules.
Trader Note
NZDUSD has already travelled from the 0.5630 floor into 0.5860 resistance, so I am not paying 0.5838 underneath the ceiling. My preferred trade is the return into 0.5783–0.5797, an H4 defence back above 0.5808 and then the first retest around 0.5792. If price breaks 0.5865 before giving that pullback, the primary entry is missed and I switch only to the confirmed breakout-retest plan. No pullback or retest means no trade. An H4 close below 0.5746 ends the bullish thesis.
Scenario Audit
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary pullback buy: valid
Same-direction breakout alternate: valid after acceptance and retest
Tactical sell from 0.5850–0.5870: rejected—H4 remains bullish
HTF sell around 0.5950–0.6020: Watch Only—requires H4 failure and H1 reversal confirmation
No additional valid executable scenario was omitted
NZDUSD ejection candlesticks at the 61.8% Fib Overall Structure: The higher timeframe structure is heavily bearish, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent upward movement behaves as a textbook corrective leg within a macro downtrend.
Fibonacci Retracement: The corrective bounce perfectly tested the 61.80% Fibonacci golden pocket level. Price action is currently showing clear signs of rejection at this key resistance zone, confirming that sellers are defending the area.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI (14) has become overstretched/overbought during this minor rally, indicating that the immediate bullish momentum is exhausted and due for a reversal.
NZDUSD | Triple Supply Rejection on M15NZDUSD is testing a major daily supply zone after an extended move higher. Despite three separate attempts to break above this level, buyers have been unable to establish acceptance beyond the zone.
The lower time frame strengthens the bearish case. On the M15 chart, each rejection occurred as RSI reached the 70 level, showing that bullish momentum was unable to translate into a successful breakout. This repeated failure at a key area suggests the market may be preparing for a move lower.
I am looking for price to respect this supply zone and rotate toward the next significant demand area around 0.5657.
What I’m Watching
• Three consecutive rejections from the same supply zone.
• M15 RSI reaching overbought conditions on each test.
• Lack of follow through from buyers despite repeated attempts.
Trade Parameters
Entry:0.5857
Stop Loss: 0.5897
Target: 0.5657
If price closes decisively above the supply zone, this bearish idea is invalidated and I will reassess the market structure.
This analysis reflects my personal market view and is shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
NZDUSD - Retesting Supply Resistance?NZDUSD is currently recovering from a major oversold zone and is now approaching a key supply zone marked in red. 📈
Price is testing a high-confluence resistance area, formed by:
• The supply zone marked in red.
📌 As NZDUSD approaches this resistance, we will be looking for trend-following short setups, anticipating a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
As always, rather than selling blindly into resistance, we will wait for bearish confirmation before considering any short positions.
Will sellers step in and defend this key supply zone once again? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
NZD-USD Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZDUSD is rejecting a horizontal supply area after sweeping buy-side liquidity. Expect bearish continuation toward the imbalance below as sellers defend the premium zone.
------------------
Stop Loss: 0.5865
Take Profit: 0.5817
Entry: 0.5845
Time Frame: 5H
------------------
Sell!
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NZD-USD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZDUSD is reacting from a horizontal supply area after sweeping buy-side liquidity. A bearish rejection from this premium zone could extend lower toward the marked demand target. Time Frame 6H.
Sell!
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