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PUB H&S bearish view Bearish ideas to meet the H&S target but in past the H&S target was just missed in the green box full target then later much stronger down trend in place - so will it be short to target again better be on safe side Also used the Head max to the neck line skewed to RHS which gives lower target, may have been better to draw top of the head in this position but I got bored now, to modify it. So maybe take position off a bit early here level with prior KLOS/R point first target as shown by purple line We have a confirmed breakdown in mid bearish trend reasons to be bearish 1. AI disruption risk (biggest current driver) The advertising industry is being directly disrupted by AI tools. PUB shares recently fell ~8% in a single day after outlook failed to ease AI concerns. ➡️ Risk: Clients may: spend less on agencies bring work in-house using AI Long-term threat to the entire business model 2. Weak / conservative growth outlook Publicis guided ~4–5% organic growth for 2026, seen as modest. ➡️ Risk: Even if realistic, markets may view it as: slowing growth lack of upside This already triggered a sharp sell-off 3. Stock already in a downtrend Share price: near 52-week lows (~€68) down ~23% over 1 year ➡️ Risk: Weak momentum → continued selling Institutions may rotate out 4. Cyclical exposure to advertising spend Publicis relies on marketing and advertising budgets ➡️ These are: one of the first things companies cut in downturns ➡️ Risk: recession or slowdown → immediate revenue pressure 5. Industry-wide pressure (not just Publicis) Entire sector facing: restructuring cost cuts AI-driven disruption (e.g. WPP restructuring) ➡️ Risk: Structural decline in traditional agency model Lower long-term valuation multiples 6. Earnings stagnation despite revenue growth Revenue growing (~+8.5%) but: net income slightly declined (~-0.4%) ➡️ Risk: Indicates: margin pressure costs rising faster than profits 7. Analyst sentiment weakening Analyst price targets have been revised downward recently ➡️ Risk: Signals reduced confidence Can trigger institutional selling 8. Competitive pressure from global peers Competes with: WPP Omnicom Dentsu ➡️ Risk: Pricing pressure Losing major accounts impacts revenue quickly 9. Reliance on large clients Big agency model = dependence on large contracts ➡️ Risk: Losing a few major clients → disproportionate impact 10. Despite “cheap” valuation, sentiment is weak PUB trades at ~10x earnings (relatively low) ➡️ Normally bullish, BUT: Market may be pricing in: structural decline AI disruption risk Bottom line (what matters most for PUB) The key downside drivers are: AI threatening the ad agency model Low growth outlook Weak price momentum Economic sensitivity (ad spending cuts first)

by William_Playfair

Short on PUBLICIS (PUB)I don't see any major support levels above 74. Big red candle in the middle of 84 => can't go higher than this resistance level, high pressure of sellers. Short with a TP at 74. Warnings that makes me not sure: dividends coming soon so a lot of buyers will probably come + oversold RSI.

Price Psychology what happening with in price This is meant to serve as a training guide into understanding how chart patterns are ultimately formed via prices bought and sold. This is where the focus of this video is. We are always wanting to know rather than the pattern that is forming, the prices that are being bought and sold on the chart. For this we use Quarters Theory, The segmenting on the chart into equal slices to understand where prices are at and where they could go. On my highest timeframe I like to stick to 1000 pip sections the value of these sections changes this system is universal and can be used on any asset for ease of understanding it was preformed on a stock chart. Within 1000 pips we have four sections Four $100 zones Four $50 zones Sixteen: $25 zones On a monthly chart we focus on 1000 pip sections, on a weekly is 100 and on a daily its 10. Segmenting the char in this nature allows for an understanding of how price has reacted on different time frames based up the price or zone that it is in. From this point of view we may then begin to see recognizably patterns happening at specific prices that would be attributed to bar chart or price action patterns.

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